iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,433 Blog Posts

This Depression Will Be Cooler

I was out with the family yesterday; basically following Mrs. Fly around—paying for stuff that she deemed “necessary.” For the kids, we went to a variety of stores, picking up little things along the way. The one thing that stood out, a common denominator if you will, everything was on sale. The most startling thing I have ever experience occurred at “The Gap,” where a desperate sales person gave us access to his employee discount card (30% off), just so he could meet his quota. In other words, he was like “yo, buy a lot of stuff and I’ll hook you up.” I was like “you’re on, fuckface.”

Then, we moseyed on over to the sneaker stores, all 5 of them. Much to my chagrin, none of the stores carried 1/2 sizes. My youngest son is a size 10 1/2 sneaker. I guess during big ass depressions, store managers keep their inventories low by only stocking up on full sizes.

Finally, Mrs. Fly jogged on to the Coach store, where she bought “the latest bag.” Long story short, those fucking sales people were the most egregious hard sellers I’ve ever encountered at the shopping mall—almost as bad as stock brokers. They were trying to close me on some bullshit $100 wallet for about 15 minutes. They even took turns trying to “seal the deal.” Morons. “The Fly” cannot be closed; scientifically, it is impossible.

Quick note: I even found parking near the mall, which was a 30 minute endeavor, this time— last year.

Look you, the country is fucked. Its “fuckedness” stems from the budget shortfalls municipalities will face, burdened by declining tax revenues and increasing jobless rates. Many, many cities and states, in this ass backwards union, have HUGE infrastructure projects underway. Needless to say, they will not be able to fund them anymore.

The money is gone. An egregious age of deflation is upon us. Poof, just like that.

I must admit, I am shocked by the lack of leadership in this country. Words cannot express how idiotic Paulson and Co. look right now, reversing their stance on the TARP program. Basically, they are saying “fuck you, you’re dead,” to all of the weak banks. Because of this, there will be a huge wave of bank closings— and soon.

Actually, their latest position is a logical one, which is: why give dead banks money, if they are dead? However, on Wall Street, we don’t like it when policy changes so dramatically. It makes everyone nervous. We have a bunch of headless horsemen leading us into a war.

The markets are in danger of trading down significantly, due to uncertainty. Everyone I know, who manages big money, is nervous.

I keep switching my market bias, because things keep changing. One week it appears the Government has a handle on things; the next they are chopping off each others cocks. I’m sorry, but I can’t invest on the long side, while my leaders are running around without their cocks.

Naturally, the fuckery is not isolated in America. Worldwide, growth is slowing to a standstill. Don’t be a fucking hero, amidst the biggest banking freeze up, since the wonderful times of the last Great Depression.

Without a doubt, we are heading into a depression or something like it, where employment and inventories run dry. However, this time, it will be much cooler to watch, on my brand new LCD, as opposed to where Grandpa Fly found news: on his bullshit AM radio, made from “Marconi”— “a fine Italian”—no doubt.

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222 comments

  1. starving artist

    bring it.

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  2. OMG

    No way I get to be the first person to comment on this wondrous blog post. Right on Fly. It shall be a glorious depression indeed.

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  3. OMG

    FUCK YOU starving artist… hehehe, just kidding.

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  4. optimatis

    depression is so easy .. just do NOT BUY anything anymore … all is getting cheaper …

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  5. Trustnone

    Fly,
    As you pen down this fucking out of this world post. I got to say this to all turds with comfy ass “Middle Management” crap-job they call career “”Poof! Its OVER ASSHOLES”. no more motto-down tactics against the newly-grad fresh engineer who is twice as smart as you ever will be.

    The wave of youth and its ways are coming to the american shores in a big way!!!

    LOVE IT OR GET THE FUCK OUT OF THE WAY!

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  6. Ozark Hillbilly

    It will absolutely be a lot cooler this time around. And not just because we are about to find out that global warming is bullshit.

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  7. mrkcbill

    In other words, he was like “yo, buy a lot of stuff and I’ll hook you up.” I was like “you’re on, fuckface.”

    Awesome stuff….how much did you drop? What did you save?

    You know Hank Paulson has plans to go on a cruise Jan. 21st…at least we have that going for us.

    I found this You Tube message to be very 3rd Worldish
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLq2xGDlR8g

    Just sayin

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  8. PharmPhucker

    While I respect you Phly, I just can not agree. You need to step back and realize that you live in the New York City area. It’s the last major metro area in this country to go into recession. Most other areas are now hitting bottom and starting to turn up. The only exceptions are California, Nev, Arizona, and Fla because of housing. And then you’ve got New York City because the financial sector is just now getting phucked.

    Here in the southeast, we’re asking – what recession? Housing prices are hanging tough. Foreclosures are rare. Few seem to have trouble getting jobs. And my visit to the mall last week was painful. Parking was a bitch to find. People stood in lines everywhere. Sales people were few and far between and didn’t give a phuck whether you bought or not. Restaurants, forget it, the lines are too phucking long to want to wait.

    You’re trying to impose the New York experience on the rest of the country. Mistake. As a country, we’re not uniformly firing on all cylinders. But, we’re far from facing such serious shit that one has to run around worrying about the sky falling.

    Just one pharm phuckers opinion.

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  9. mrkcbill

    Pharm,

    The Midwest just got Bell Bottoms, Sushi and Starbucks last year…just be patient.

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  10. 4fl3x

    Ok Master Fly, very nice post.

    However, how the fuck should we trade this shitbox? I’m still waiting for some sort of bounce, but seeing as I am, it will never come?

    Friday’s action should be a huge shake out of the weak hands imo.

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  11. aggiealum

    Apparently some people in the Sacramento area (where it’s pretty much the prince of foreclosures in California) are still spending. The Costco was pretty busy yesterday evening with people buying all kinds of non-edible, non-essential crap. Then we went out to dinner thinking there would be no wait since I thought previous “home flipping” fuckers still can’t afford to pay for gas to get their Hummers out of their soon to be bank owned driveways, but to our surprise, there was a 1 hour wait at an Italian restaurant chain (Chilis next door had a similar wait too), and a packed parking lot at the various big box stores.

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  12. duncanscotch

    at last…the FLY has summed up in clear concise terms exactly what is going to happen to the citizens of the good old USA. what a shame, our children will have a tough time coping regardless of their economic heritage.

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  13. WeeklyTA

    * People are losing jobs, hundreds of thousands of them. How are they going to pay for their house, their car, student loans, credit cards, day-to-day expenses?
    * A lack of disposable income fuels the lack of consumer spending. The end result that businesses cannot make money and will cut further jobs.
    * This results in a significant decrease in tax revenue for the Federal, state and local governments, and they too will (are) cutting jobs and public spending on programs and services.
    * The end result is that everyone has to cut down on everything, and it is not because of choice. It is forced because it is a vicious cycle that feeds upon itself. Consumers drive this economy (or kill it).
    * Rinse and repeat, because we just started.

    This simple explanation gives the clearest picture as to what is happening right now. This will go on for many, many, many months. There is a lot of talk on CNBC about “preventing” a recession. I’m not a Ph.D economist, but you don’t have to be smart to say that 1) this cannot be prevented: the wheels are already in motion and the road down is steep, and 2) recessions are a normal and necessary part of the business cycle. Why does everyone keep forgetting that? We must clear out the excess created during the expansion. This one will just be much, much more painful than the rest. The best policy is for people to stop “hoping and praying”, which is only reserved for religion, and to financially and mentally prepare themselves for the worst possible outcome.

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  14. Market Fool

    Egregiously brilliant posting.

    I especially liked “The Fly” cannot be closed; scientifically, it is impossible.” because the Market Fool is exactly the same. Any fucker attempting to “close” me on anything, ever, gets the reverse psych homo hammer of death to their melon.

    Good times (really)!

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  15. Ward and June Cleaver
    Ward and June Cleaver

    Not to worry. President Eisenhower has it all under control.

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  16. JakeGint

    Have to concur with the Pharmaceutical Phucker.

    No signs here, yet. Of course, I can count the number of financial services firms here on both hands, banks excluded. PNC just et NCC, and they were the two largest in town, now they’re the one largest.

    ____________

    Fly,

    The Giants are literally pulling the arms and legs off the vaunted Ravens defense right now.

    The Titties are so NOT the best team in football.

    _______

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  17. TraderCaddy

    The economic news is a downer.
    Here is something to make the day a little cheerier.
    It’s puppy cam.
    http://stocktiger.com/puppy.php

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  18. El Tiberon

    Fly,

    Directionally, I couldn’t agree with you more. That said, this market has more buoyancy than fake tits in a hot tub. All it takes is a little momentum and the fear factor of missing the buy at the bottom and away it runs…like diarrhea out your ass (so I hear) after eating burritos and a big gulp of Mexican water. There are too many people that want the market to go up…you can’t go 10 feet without hearing those who believe history is the greatest indicator of the future…”well the biggest gains were made after the crash of ’29” We all know nobody can save the economy we just have to go through this for a time…what I care about is what to trade tomorrow…directionally it isn’t hard to figure out

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  19. optimatis

    get ready for the AMERO currency

    http://vakotrade.com/2008/11/the_amero_and_how_the_us_dollar_will_collapse/

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  20. JakeGint

    That said, this market has more buoyancy than fake tits in a hot tub.

    LOL. Eggselent.

    ___

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  21. Karl Marx

    Fly, seriously, you’ve taken Manhattan.

    Please move onto DC and Hollywood and provide them with some direction, some policy, and some more fabulously entertaining premium tier internets blogging.

    El Tib, many people may want the markets to go up, but there is no value in wishes, hope or change. In fact, I don’t think there is value at all above these levels; we’re barely below the long term average on PE. Stocks were overbought as much as RE, as commodities, etc. etc etc so it is all down, down, down, with Mother Market and all other asset classes shitting viscous brown fluid out of every pore in her body.

    There might be a few spikes up, but I doubt they hit the 200 day, which will drop.

    And drop.

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  22. WeeklyTA

    If we look at the 2003 bear market, we can see that the bear market didn’t officially end until a higher low was made which directly coincides with the flatten and up curving of the 200-day MA. This MA took years to level out. Take a look at the 200-day MA now…we have a long, long ways to go.

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  23. Juice

    Great post but depression, schmasession … we’ll be throwing a ‘for retards only’ t-day rally out of tomorrow’s low. You can play it or not, since we’ll be going lower after this bit of stock market egregiosity is out of the way.

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  24. chivasontherocks

    the team with the faggish baby blue uniforms is losing 7- 3

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  25. Jon

    Giant’s will fall apart later this year for sure. They just got super lucky last year. Titans rule man!

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  26. scum bucket

    What depression? If I wanted I could go buy a house with zero down and get $5k cash back tomorrow. Credit crisis myass. Besides, everyone in NYC is rich and shit.

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  27. scum bucket

    Let it burn.

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  28. The future 50th president of the US
    The future 50th president of the US

    We cannot worry about the problems today, without preparing for the problems of tommorrow.

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  29. Aris

    the gov’t is going to be running the printing presses at 120%. you can bank on that.

    deflation + depression angle = printing press at full steam.

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  30. BOOMER

    Circuit City Looking to Close Another 150 Stores?

    http://gizmodo.com/5089605/circuit-city-looking-to-close-another-150-stores

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  31. lol

    Aris, I agree.
    Don’t know when that will convert into inflation. could be a couple years even.

    Hey, Obama can create more jobs easily. How? He just has to have the government spend money on building more printing presses everywhere around the nation. Create a printing press in every city in america. Then if we need liquidity, we can just activate the west coast printing device. And if it’s really severe, we can activate the midwest printing production. Then east coast is code red. If he were smart, and could somehow protect himself from the wrath of the federal reserve, he would have the treasury begin printing a new currency, heck why not two. One inflationary currency, another that just hold’s it’s value, and another currency like cash with an expiration date like a gift card type thing. That way the one that expires, although it is valuable because there are very few of them and they shrink in amount, as time goes on, people are still forced to spend, rather than save, because they don’t want them to expire.

    I’m just ranting on about crazy ideas that will never happen, and probably won’t work, but if the fed is going to run these science lab experiments where they look for the miricle cure, they might as well have a few backup currencies that they can experiment with.
    That way if their experiments blow everyone up, they have a backup “lab” to resort to.

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  32. College Dropout

    bwahahaha at everyone paying egregious prices to go to college, have fun getting a job that will pay for it, when people are looking to cut spending and pay scrubs like me with at least some real experience for cheaper.

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  33. Mexican

    Whatever /\ says, I will do it for half!!
    bwhahaha!!

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  34. Bangalore Boy

    I will do it cheaper than the Mexican, and I went to Stanford!

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  35. JakeGint

    All Jeff Fischer needs is a ponytail and he’ll be able to make a guest appearance on CNBC.

    _____

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  36. Ass Napkin Mike

    I agree that everything is totally fucked up and our economy is toast…really fucked.

    I would like to get short, shut my computer down, and wait for it all to play out. But this market blows. Everyone is losing money long and short. There is so much manipulation that Im afraid to be short and have my face blown off. The size of the squeeze’s are nuts-two or three days of one (squeeze) and youre wiped out.

    This market is not easy.

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  37. JakeGint

    Geezus, do the Titties play a competent team this year?

    It’s like the Jags took a fat envelope from “the Fly” prior to the fourth quarter.

    _____

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  38. Bangalore Boy

    JakeGint is to the Titans as JakeGint is to the Democrats.

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  39. bailout lover

    The big meeting is over and it has become obvious that the correct pronunciation for the organization name is Gay-20.

    Enjoy the next week and a half of trading because between about Thanksgiving and Christmas it’s a whole other market.

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  40. ZenProfit

    Has The Fly ever revealed how big his LCD is?

    Ya know, just wonderin’.

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  41. Goldman Sachs

    I’m trading to $22.00 before this is all over.

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  42. TraderCaddy

    The Titans need to schedule the Florida Gators if they want to play a competent team.

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  43. scum bucket

    I’m pregnant with Jake’s love child.

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  44. Jon

    Manning is so over-rated. Kerry Collins is ten times better. 10-0 baby!

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  45. fortune8

    WTF is Mrs Fly doing at the Coach store? Cheap ass Fly should be buying her Gucci. Make sure the misses deals with a male because a female will stick it to her. 30% off on Gucci beats Coach any day of the week. Sale on Dec 1 compliments for Mrs F8 inside information. Trust but verify, call the store.

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  46. Hillary Clinton

    I deeply resent being lumped together by “The Fly” with the other leaders who are currently “chopping off each other’s cocks off”.

    I’ll have you know my cock was chopped off years ago.

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  47. fortune8

    It’s deflation that brings down the price, not recession. LV is still charging f’ing arm and leg for made in USA shit.

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  48. JakeGint

    JakeGint is to the Titans as JakeGint is to the Democrats.

    Not quite yet, son.

    However, you have my permission to insert the Crackboys in that analogy.

    _____

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  49. JakeGint

    I’m pregnant with Jake’s love child.

    Get in line, sister.

    Mellowing out with a Woodford after an egregious b-day party for the three year old. (Scheduled around the Giant game, of course).

    ___

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  50. j

    It would be great if people knew real economic terms instead of suggesting that any price fall is a the result of inflation or deflation.

    let’s fucking go through it again:

    Inflation occurs when a fall in the money supply causes a reduction in the general price level in the economy.

    Cheaper gas at the fucking pump IS NOT deflation. GAP selling at a discount is not first hand hand evidence of deflation.

    Money supply is NOT falling in the US. What we have is a sudden change in relative prices and destocking as a result of lower demand.

    I have to keep bashing this into your heads.

    Fly, you ought to know better than to fill up the kids heads with this sort of thing as it gets them all excited about another fall in the stock market. Stocks can fall of course but it won’t be because of deflation. It is impossible to experience deflation under a fiat currency with a central bank ready and willing to print money.

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  51. DEVILDOG

    New much lower low by 11/26/08.

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  52. Ass Napkin Mike

    Anyone know where I can sell a piece of my liver or any other organ to get some cash?

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  53. j

    Dooooooogggg!

    Bullshit dog. We’re holding you to your 11/19 deadline. No fucking around now. You had us on the edge of our seats for the 10/28 crash which was almost the day the market took off for a 20% ride to the upside and you recently told us that 11/19 was the new crash date.

    No more date changes, Dog. 11/19 is glued to your forehead with fucking superglue and you’re not squirming out of it by suddenly making a date change.

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  54. the Bull

    Was watching Bloomberg on Friday and the announcer bimbo gave us a teaser…”So and so from so and so is only down 15% this year, after the break lets see what he’s buying!”

    True fucking story.

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  55. DEVILDOG

    j, in case you didn’t notice we had a lower low on the S&P on Thursday the 13th. I never base my calls on the overly manipulated DOW 30. We also had the lowest weekly close. My call was correct. I expect much deeper lows by the 26th. Hopefully, you’re still long and getting longer.

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  56. DEVILDOG

    j, your money supply bullshit is hilarious. It’s hard to believe you are so stupid. Just raised my SSF to 50.

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  57. j

    j, your money supply bullshit is hilarious

    Well, yea dog. That’s because you’re an ignorant fool. I didn’t say stocks couldn’t go lower, you rabid idiot. i said there’s no deflation in the system.

    And your call isn’t correct as you said you were expecting lower lows in 19/11.

    Don’t go around changing dates without an explanation, dog. Don’t think we’re not watching.

    And I’m not bullish or bearish here. I’m simply not shorting the market, that’s all although i have been buying some decent stocks.’
    Check out Oil Search OSH.AX. The market could go down another 20% but that thing is heading higher.

    Now stfu.

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  58. scum bucket

    monday – down
    tuesday – down
    wednesday – down
    thursday – up
    friday – op ex

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  59. scum bucket

    Hi Jakey, here is a picture of me for your boudoir.

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  60. voice of reason

    dd broke his rusty cage i see. fine, his idiotic raving is definitely tradeable. when there’s dog shit allover the place, go long.

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  61. mh

    ha armageddon is here.

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  62. BOOMER

    In case anyone is looking for Depression-Era pricing on digital music, AmazonMp3 has Louis Armstrong’s “New Orleans Nights” album for $.99 and Creedence Clearwater Revival’s “Willy and The Poor Boys” album for $1.99.

    Two classics, different genres, $3. Can’t beat it, even in a Depression.

    http://tinyurl.com/5tymvt

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  63. old broke guy

    devildog, i love that guy. oh ya’ the fly and family- awesome post. top flight.

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  64. Flamer

    Shorted a boatload of XOM last Fri.

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  65. JAB

    j,

    The money supply is the sum of credit and cash in our economy.

    It became apparent that banks have been extending credit out of line with future earnings. The result is misallocation of capital and evaporation of credit.

    The central bank cannot fix this with their printing presses because they inject money through banks. The proof is that Secretary Paulson shoved capital into major banks, but those banks are not making loans with it. The central bank does not currently have a method of direct injection (that is why Chairman Bernanke threatened helicopter drops).

    Since injections are failing and credit is evaporating, deflation is occurring. That needs to happen since overextension of credit caused hyperinflation.

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  66. DEVILDOG

    Monday – up “obama 60 minutes” – save wall street is top priority and don’t worry about the deficit for the next two years and bailout everyone.

    Tuesday – up to S&P 965.

    Wednesday – starts a new decline to lower lows thru T-DAY.

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  67. j

    Jab

    Bank lending up till July was not falling. It is falling in shadow banking but not banks.

    Bank recaps is related to solvency issue and also ensuring that bank capital allows banks to maintain leverage ratios.

    The FED does have a method of direct injection. It’s called open market operations where the Fed buys/sells securities from the system.

    Lastly the Fed’s action to take in securities other than government bonds is also a direct injection.

    Money supply IS NOT falling and there is no deflation… period.

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  68. TraderCaddy

    Mon- no idea
    Tues- no clue
    Weds- Using a dartboard
    Thurs- Using a ouija board
    Fri- Gonna use a fortune teller

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  69. DEVILDOG

    Depression = deflation. Period.

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  70. Juice

    Glad to see you back, D-dawg

    since we’re making useless predictions this evening: for entertainment purposes only; here’s mine

    mon – come off the lows
    tues – maybe up a little
    wed – possible HUGE rally
    thurs – give back some
    friday – down hard

    disclaimer – I think TraderKaddy has it just about right

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  71. j

    not exactly dog.

    Germany went through hyper inflation during a depression when they went off the gold standard in the 20’s, which is why i say that it’s not a good thing to look for past examples prior to 1971 (after Nixon broke with gold).

    Under a gold standard the US would be lifting rates now in order to attract gold back to the US. This obviously no longer happens with a floating exchange rate.

    This is why I keep saying that it is not a given that stocks will go down or stay down in this environment. What is going to be trashed and this is a near certainty is the value of the dollar. It’s the value of the dollar that will fall because f severe inflationary actions by the Fed.

    You seem to have got it in your head that I’m bullish when I’m not. I’m just frightened as hell to be holding cash as I think they’ll fuck over cash holders in a big way.

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  72. Prospectus

    j: Trillions of dollars in credit money are gone from the system. Vaporized. Trillions more in paper wealth held in different assets are also gone. The hell there’s no deflation. So Ben printed a few billion–it’s nothing compared to what’s been erased.

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  73. paulson

    Do you guys liks my gsmes? This is fun wstching people scurry arouns based on what i say
    act immediately on the bailout orelse…
    on second thought I’m going to undo everything that was so urgent…

    As you can tell I really think a near trillion dollar decision through.

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  74. punyandy

    My wife said she got the same 30% offer via her email, so nothing particularly noteworthy there.

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  75. j

    Prospectus:

    Shadow banking is deleveraging. However shadow banks are not commercial banks. The direct link between money supply between the Fed and the economy is the commercial banks not shadow banking.

    Money supply is not falling it’s rising. in fact it’s rising and a frightening pace. The Fed’s balance sheet has gone from 700 billion to 2 trillion in a few months. The multiplier effect of this rise is enormous.

    If you want to redefine deflation like a few people do on this board then i suggest you all write a paper on it, get it peer reviewed and I will nominate you for the Nobel prize. Seriously.

    The US is NOT experiencing deflation at the moment. It’s experiencing a fall in relative prices but not deflation.

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  76. BOOMER

    Unrelated to the new depression. Cool time machine game on Youtube. Very clever.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8rJ1WML60Y

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  77. arch

    MEMO: ARCH TO ARCH

    MON. SELL 1/3 POS
    TUES. SELL 1/3 POS
    WED. SELL REST OF POS
    THURS. WATCH MARKET SKYROCKET 10,000PTS
    FRI. REBUY INTO MARKET AT PEAK AND WATCH IT FALL 12,000 PTS

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  78. Teh Yen

    USDJPY will get back to par and SPX will take out 1007 by thanksgiving.

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  79. Buckeye Bob

    Looks like the Asia mkts are trying to hold their short term bottoms

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  80. Woodshedder

    Futes up .6%

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  81. The Fly

    Money supply is contracting. If you think money is free flowing, you are fucking bananas.

    J:

    Go back to sleep. You are in danger of having your mustache punched off.

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  82. j

    One last time hoping it will sink in. this is not 1929/32. There is NO monetary contraction so there is no deflation. it’s an impossibility to have a deflation without a monetary contraction.

    The current falls we’re seeing in real estate etc is the result of an adjustment process with prices re-adjusting against the previous murderously expansionary policies of the Fed …….while there is no monetary contraction.

    Take a freaking look at the yield curve. It is extremely steep. If there was a monetary contraction it wouldn’t be a positive yield curve. If you take recent Fed injections in the system the monetary base is increasing at the rate of around 400%.

    Here’s my hunch why i think the stock market is going down. The market is quickly discounting Obama’s insane economic policies, economic policies incidentally that no mainstream economist has yet supported (excluding Krugman of course).

    If you looking for the 30’s as an example it would be more accurate to look at 1937 when FDR and his band of economic trogs again ruined the expansion through horrendous economic policies.

    The 30’s depression was not a depression in the normal sense of the word. The period was marked by a rolling set of economic slumps caused by a series of cascading set of bad policies over different periods of time. That is the only thing that is similar to the 30’s.

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  83. j

    Money supply is contracting. If you think money is free flowing, you are fucking bananas.

    Ummm how so, Fly? The fed’s latest figures are not showing this to be the case. Where’s the monetary contraction, tiger?

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  84. The Fly

    How can you say there is no contraction?

    Let me guess: you believe all of the fucking gov’t data?

    Good luck with that, fuck face. Last I checked, car companies were about to blow a big one and the gov’t is the only source of capital in the world.

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  85. The Fly

    LOL @ Gov’t data!!!

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  86. The Fly

    Last response on this ridiculous debate:

    We are in the midst of an EPIC contraction of money supply and credit. Also, CPI data will be NEGATIVE going forward.

    Do not argue money supply is increasing; it makes you look dumb.

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  87. Jon

    Krugman won the Nobel Prize though. He is a very very smart man. Obama I am sure will fix everything. He is also very smart.

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  88. Teh Yen

    The Great Depression wouldn’t have been so great without the Great Drought in the Great Plains region.

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  89. j

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H6/Current/

    well fuck me fly, if you can’t trust the Fed’s money supply ags then what the fuck do you trust.

    There’s a severe freaking recession going on that is possibly going to be made worse by the new Prez’s economic policies, but it is not 1929/32.

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  90. The Fly

    The dust bowls are coming.

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  91. Teh Yen

    I’m a deflationist. But with the central bankers drinking the Bernanke Kool-Aid, I fear the possibility of the reflation mission being accomplished.

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  92. Jon

    I agree. Gov’t data is often wrong. I think the China data is wrong.

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  93. scum bucket

    Deleveraging is a myth, so is credit contraction.

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  94. The Fly

    The $$ is being sucked into a Blackhole.

    For example: 150 bill in AIG. That’s ALOT of coin to toss away.

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  95. scum bucket

    AIG anyone? FNM anyone? Ten trillion in gubbermint guarantees anyone? Three trillion in bailouts anyone?

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  96. scum bucket

    AIG, good point Fly. When do we see the fire sale of assets from that pig? Never, that’s when.

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  97. scum bucket

    I hear the bank sponsored golf tournaments will continue. Some low level bank employees gets laid off and Fly starts screaming credit crisis. LMAO!!!!

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  98. Teh Yen

    $150 bn is nothing. There’s a reason why they discontinued reporting the M3 data back in 2006.

    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/M3SL.txt

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  99. j

    Also, CPI data will be NEGATIVE going forward.

    CPI IS NOT INFLATION/DEFLATION, fly. It’s the index of consumer prices. Two freaking months ago the rise of the CPI caused by the energy surge was being seen as inflation when in fact it was having a dis-inflationary tendency on the economy due to the effect on consumer disposable incomes.

    A fall in the CPI next time round is then seen as deflation? Nonsense.

    Deflation is and always will be caused by a contraction in the money supply.

    Anyone suggesting otherwise is gay.

    You can’t have deflation without the money supply contracting. End of freaking story.

    —————-

    Jon,

    Krugman’s and idiot and Obama’s economic policies are idiotic.

    let me tell you how you fix the US economy in one fell swoop and in a couple of sentences.

    Eliminate corporation tax and freeze spending at current nominal levels for a decde. If you did that the US stock market would be up over 30% in a month and we would be seeing the tailwind of this deep recession in 6-12 months time looking at the possibility of 5-6% growth rates in GDP in 2010.

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  100. The Fly

    punyandy

    Not a coupon. The employee actually sneaked around to swipe his card to give us the discount, so that he could meet some quota.

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  101. The Fly

    J

    I KNOW THAT.

    I was making a separate point; hence the word “ALSO.”

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  102. j

    The $$ is being sucked into a Blackhole.

    For example: 150 bill in AIG. That’s ALOT of coin to toss away.

    Yes, which is the reason the stock market is falling. These insane policies are causing the fall as the market is perceiving the US government taking on far too much debt than they can handle.

    My humble guess is that the market is falling because of some of these insane policies with more to come from Obama as people are beginning to question future growth trajectories and the ability of the government to take in enough money to pay down the debt.

    That’s the fucking problem.

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  103. The Fly

    Go tell the fuckers at CC or BBY or SHLD or Any store in the country that deflation is imaginary.

    Tell it to the schmucks that have seen a 2% pay increase, over the last 8 years.

    Please. Quit being so oblivious.

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  104. The Fly

    It’s NOT insane policies. That is a REAL loss. If the Gov’t did not eat it, someone else would. The argument is: if we eat 150 bill; it’s just 150 bill.

    If we let the system absorb it, it’s 500 bill.

    Your choice.

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  105. Woodshedder

    J is using the classic economic definition of deflation.

    It is just symantics.

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  106. The Fly

    Obama?

    Are you fucking kidding me?

    Asshole: get your head out of Bush’s ass. Fuck the GOP. Fuck them twice over. Oh, by the way, fuck the democrats too.

    You political ideologues make me fucking sick. You see everything through a false prism of politics. Naturally, you will not blame the insane management of the U.S. economy on Bush, because you are too busy sucking his cock.

    I am not a fan of any politician. In order to become one, you must be mentally ill. However, let’s recognize the market was fucked far before Obama was elected.

    OBAMA Can’t do worse that Bush. Period.

    A fucking coked out monkey, spanking off to a picture of a banana tree could have done better, over the last 8 years, fleecing the Treasury.

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  107. El Scorcho

    I’m ready to unmask J.

    ———drumroll———-

    —————————

    —————————

    —————————

    —————————

    He is none other than Howard J. Ruff.

    Mr. Ruff, do I get a free subscription to your newsletter?

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  108. Hot Thick Banana Tree
    Hot Thick Banana Tree

    Looking for a good time? Anyone? Takers? No? Back to Washington, then.

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  109. j

    FLY:
    So let me get this right then, so your saying that every time there’s a price change at the pump say, which has far more important to the economy, that’s either deflation or inflation?

    No it isn’t.

    It’s a change in relative prices or an adjustment like we’re seeing in the real estate market.

    Your GAP example is illustrative of a restocking adjustment taking place which is a good thing incidentally.

    ———–

    Go tell the fuckers at CC or BBY or SHLD or Any store in the country that deflation is imaginary.

    What they are witnessing is an adjustment to overall aggregate demand caused by a pretty harsh recession as we adjust to the severe impact of the Fed’s distortions from earlier times that have caught up with us.

    Incidentally these distortions were all caused by severe inflation.

    Tell it to the schmucks that have seen a 2% pay increase, over the last 8 years.

    Ask them to stop the Fed from fucking around with the money supply that causes all sorts of distortions.

    Please. Quit being so oblivious.

    I’m not. all I’m saying is that it’s not 1929/32 depression.

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  110. JakeGint

    Can we not talk about the upcoming Giant-Nash Vegas Titties Superbowl, since it’s Football Sunday?

    I’m hoping that by that time I’ll be able to get a new 1080 dpi LCD screen for $78 “all in” down at the “Short Circuit City,” thanks to the imminent deflation and all.

    +++++

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  111. Jeff Fisher's Stache
    Jeff Fisher's Stache

    Comin for you, Mr. Gint!

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  112. The Fly

    No J, you miss my point.

    I am saying, you cannot get capital to fund purchases any longer. Capital is restricted, thanks to broke banks, to the point where people with good credit cannot buy a house or car.

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  113. Jeff Fisher's Stache
    Jeff Fisher's Stache

    What is a Gint, btw?

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  114. j

    Fly:

    Didn’t you notice anything? Please show me where I have praised the Bush’s/GOP’s policies? I didn’t. However what i will praise is Bush’s tax cuts however he didn’t match that with a spending freeze and the Fed should never have been allowed to distort the economy through expansionary monetary policies. So the GOP deserves a good freaking whipping too.

    However that doesn’t mean one should support Obama’s economic policies which are going to be hugely damaging to the economy.

    Here’s another point for you to chew on.

    More than a few of you are saying that banks have stopped lending. How the fuck do you know it’s not the potential credit worthy borrower that has stopped borrowing in aggregate? Maybe the credit worthy borrower has stopped borrowing because they worried about Obama’s policies going forward and the possibility of much higher taxes..

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  115. Ozark Hillbilly

    This is pointless.

    But there is deflation. The reduction in lending/borrowing is a de facto reduction of the money supply, since the entire boom was driven by insane credit growth that is now nonexistent.

    The worst is yet to come.

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  116. j

    OBAMA Can’t do worse that Bush. Period.

    Sure he fucking can.

    Bush fucked up on a lot of things, however he did lower taxes at the right time….

    Obama on the other hand wants to raise the cost of capital going forward by raising cap gains taxes. So just at the time you want more capital expenditure he’s going to raise the cost.

    I’m libertarian by the way.. a fully paid up member of the Aussie libertarian party so i hate conservatives only a little less than i despise the left.

    I’m not diverting this to a political discussion by the way. I’m only suggesting that Obama’s economic policies will fore the economic arrow to point downward as it will prove to be extremely damaging if enacted and may eventually cause the fed to monetize the entire debt.

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  117. JakeGint

    I am saying, you cannot get capital to fund purchases any longer. Capital is restricted, thanks to broke banks, to the point where people with good credit cannot buy a house or car.

    Where is this happening?

    _______

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  118. The Fly

    Fine I give up.

    It’s all in my fucking head.

    J and Jakegint win.

    Obama is going to rape America and turn us all into socialists.

    We will all relish for the days of Bush and his low capital gains taxes. Oh, how I will miss the low cap gains.

    Too bad none of you fuckers will, since you have no gains.

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  119. j

    Exactly, where is this happening?

    Confusing sub-prime borrowers with credit worthy customers is not helping the discussion any , Fly.

    Banks don’t want to be lending to potential bad debts down the road, however they will lend to credit worthy borrowers anytime as they have lots of money to lend out at the moment for good prospects.

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  120. Woodshedder

    Are j and JakeGint gonna morph into some sort of super-bad Democrat slayer?

    Just sayin’.

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  121. JakeGint

    Oh, and Jeff Fischer’s Snidely Whiplash?

    Just keep it up, pal…

    You’re gonna look miiiiiighty silly lying on the ten yard line far from the warm conviviality of your friend, “Mr. Devil’s Beard” Goatee.

    ______

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  122. j

    No fly,

    I’m not saying anything about Obama being a socialist or a capitalist. I actually think he’s a decent dude and only wished he would succeed. I’m not being political that way.

    My only deep concern about the new administration is their policies will make things much worse on the economic front and I really think this is what the market is actually discounting at the moment.

    If you want to increase invested capital in a healthy long lasting way you lower the cost of capital not raise it through with cap gains taxes etc. And you certainly don’t artificially lower the cost by having the central bank artificially lower the cost of interest through a monetary expansion which is what they are doing right now in bucket loads.

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  123. The Fly

    You’re right J.

    GE and GS are simply not credit worthy. Hell, they just wanted to get raped by Buffett, because they thought it would be cool and shit.

    Again, my apologies good Sir. You have an immense grasp on the art of economics. I am simply here spinning, mind you, spinning my wheels.

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  124. WTF does fly know??
    WTF does fly know??

    Did Bush make Rosey Rottencrotch making 30k annual buy a 500k 2 bedroom trash hole in Stockton, CA?

    Fly your the fucking idiot.

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  125. j

    GE and GS aren’t being perceived to be good risks because they are too highly leveraged and people think their earnings won’t support ever increasing amounts of borrowing. In GS’s case people don’t think we will see the same level of I-bank activity going forward. In other words they are being rational.

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  126. The Fly

    Yes. Bush did that. He also made GM build the Hummer, because he thought it was “gnarly.”

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  127. The Fly

    Okay. So, you tell me where capital is being raised or what sectors are flush with capital?

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  128. The Fly

    BTW: GS and GE are the standard. If they cannot raise capital, no one can.

    Heck, don’t believe me. Keep buying stocks. I am sure you will do well, in the long term.

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  129. JakeGint

    We will all relish for the days of Bush and his low capital gains taxes. Oh, how I will miss the low cap gains.

    You don’t “relish” for something. Relishing is more of a present day activity.

    You may, however, “long” or “pine” for the days when everything but your cat’s anus pellets was not taxed, but who knows? You live in NY, so you may be numb to it already.

    But just FYI — increasing capital gains taxes puts a discount on the entire invested capital base. EVERYTHING, not just the stock market that puts cheeseburgers on your table.

    Poof! Bye bye value!

    _____________

    Listen Bush was no brain surgeon, but he did do a couple of things in a schitty economic environment (dotcom meltdown, 911, recession) that kept the boat running straight. I hope Barry will do the same, I really do. But fiscal policy is not an inconsiderable influence on the economy.

    It matters.

    _______

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  130. j

    yes

    Wells Fargo got a cap raising done recently without too much of a hitch.

    I would also like to add that those countries that have a current account surplus would rush back to the US to invest if they thought the economic policy mix was right.

    I think there’s a capital strike going on at the moment because overseas investors don’t believe the US is running appropriate economic policies.

    there is one big difference between domestic and overseas investors. Overseas dudes are asked to take on a foreign exchange risk.

    they are hardly going to come to the US when the Fed would fuck the dollars value and the new administration is going to follow policies that are very problematic.

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  131. The Fly

    It’s a ridiculous argument.

    Let’s all bitch about the taxes being levies against Cuban cigars.

    Oh, yeah, I forgot, there are no Cuban cigars in the U.S.

    Cap gains is a non-issue and will not make or break the economy.

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  132. JakeGint

    Are j and JakeGint gonna morph into some sort of super-bad Democrat slayer?

    Just sayin’.

    Woody, are you seeking full removal of your entire prison pussy facial compliment?

    Because I can easily send my brother…

    _______

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  133. The Fly

    “I would also like to add that those countries that have a current account surplus would rush back to the US to invest if they thought the economic policy mix was right.”

    Prove it.

    WFC got its fucking stock clocked by 30% in recent weeks. Shut up.

    Again: THERE IS NO CAPITAL. Get it through your skull.

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  134. j

    Cap gains is a non-issue and will not make or break the economy.

    it raises the implied cost of capital at the very moment you want to make it less expensive.

    Want more of something, lower the cost. want less of it raise the cost.

    I told you how to fix the US economy in two sentences.

    Eliminate corporate tax and freeze nominal spending for a decade. You would see the end of this recession in 6 months and bank on a GDP growth rate of 6% in 2010.

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  135. Woodshedder

    Jake, nah, I rather want to keep it. If you send him, make sure he’s coming over for a few beers and bratwursts.

    It was just the “j” and “j”akegint thing that struck me as funny, for a minute.

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  136. JakeGint

    Let’s all bitch about the taxes being levies against Cuban cigars.

    Oh, yeah, I forgot, there are no Cuban cigars in the U.S.

    Cap gains is a non-issue and will not make or break the economy.

    Fly Finance 101. The cost of capital gains is implicit in the overall cost of capital.

    Capital gains taxes discount the value of every appreciating asset IMMEDIATELY.

    That’s why the market ran in 1996, and in 2003, in case you were wondering.

    They “mean nothing” like oxygen in the air means nothing.

    ______

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  137. j

    For fucks sake, prove what Fly.

    nations run a capital account deficit because the marginal return is lower at home than it is overseas.

    The US is capital short because by definition it’s running a capital account surplus. this is real economics not bullshit by way.

    The US needs to follow policies to attract overseas capital. At the moment it isn’t. Period.

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  138. The Fly

    Cap gain taxes were cut post 9/11. The market ripped higher during a higher tax period.

    Where is your evidence?

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  139. The Fly

    Prove that there private sector capital is waiting to come flushing back in.

    This is all imaginary shit running in your head. Any co that bought in got their head handed to them.

    Find me a few co’s that are waiting to step in. Got any banks?

    Any?

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  140. The Fly

    Corp taxes are the highest amongst the Western nations. They should lower corp taxes; but they won’t.

    When they don’t, just know, they were high under Bush too.

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  141. The Fly

    Jake:

    Of course what you say is 101 type stuff. Companies will adjust; because they have no choice.

    Raising cap gains is pointless and I hope Obama does not do it.

    However, if he does, my point, it is not a make or break. There are many other things that are make or break, such as corp taxes or restrictive trade barriers.

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  142. JakeGint

    Cap gain taxes were cut post 9/11. The market ripped higher during a higher tax period.

    Where is your evidence?

    Evidence of what? The cap gains tax cuts were in 2003, btw.

    ______

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  143. The Fly

    Fuck, it just dawned on me; J is right.

    Capital is staying out of the U.S because they are afraid of Obama!!!

    How could I miss this?

    All this time, I thought they were a little pissed that our mess spilled over and destroyed the world, taking their bullshit economies with us.

    Back to the drawing board.

    Obama did it, even before he had a chance. Wonderful thinking.

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  144. JakeGint

    Some light reading on the subject…

    Excerpted:

    In May 2003, President George W. Bush signed into law his investment tax cut. This package included accelerated reductions in income tax rates, a cut in the dividend tax from 39.6 percent to 15 percent and a reduction in the capital gains tax from 20 percent to 15 percent. The purpose of the Bush tax cut was to provide an incentive for more domestic capital investment, more business spending and a turnaround in the stock market, which lost $6 trillion in value after the technology bubble burst in 1999-2000. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, caused a further plunge in the stock market, a drought of business investment and job layoffs. Bush declared that a change in fiscal policy — particularly tax policy — was necessary to stimulate a fragile economy and avert a long and deep recession similar to what the United States experienced in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

    This study examines how the economy has responded to this investment tax stimulus, with special emphasis on the reduction in the tax on capital gains (income from the sale of an investment). It also examines the historical evidence of how the economy has responded to changes in the capital gains tax rate. It concludes that the lower capital gains tax rate has had positive effects on the economy and government finances. The most important of these effects are as follows:

    –The rate of business capital investment has undergone a U-turn — from negative business investment spending in the two years before the tax cut to an average annual increase in business investment of more than 10 percent in the three years after the tax cut.

    –Contrary to forecasts of revenue decline, federal revenues overall and from the capital gains tax increased in the four years since the investment tax cuts. Total federal revenues increased $740 billion (2003-07), and capital gains tax revenues increased from $55 billion the year before the tax cut (2002) to an estimated $110 billion in 2006 (all figures adjusted for inflation to constant 2006 dollars).

    –There was a sizable “unlocking effect” from the lower tax rate, meaning that investors voluntarily sold stock and other assets at a much higher volume once the tax rate was reduced. The amount of capital gains realizations more than doubled, from $301 billion in 2002 to an estimated $683 billion in 2006.

    –The rich did not get a huge tax cut from the capital gains cut; in fact, the percentage of income taxes paid by the rich increased from 34 percent to 39 percent from 2002 to 2005 (the most recent year for which data are available).

    –The capital gains tax cut did not only benefit wealthy Americans; more than half of all tax filers with capital gains had incomes of less than $50,000 in 2005 and more than two-thirds had incomes of less than $100,000.

    These findings validate the Bush Administration’s original case for the investment tax cut, particularly the reduction in the rate of tax on capital gains. These tax cuts are scheduled to expire after 2010. This would mean that the capital gains tax would rise from 15 percent to 20 percent and the dividend tax from 15 percent to 39.6 percent or higher. Two of the major Democratic presidential candidates, Barack Obama and John Edwards, have suggested raising the capital gains tax rate all the way to 28 percent — higher than the rate when Bill Clinton left office. This analysis suggests that raising the capital gains tax rate would have negative effects on the U.S. economy and on the federal budget deficit in both the short term and long term.

    We conclude that it is not only critical that Congress extend the life of the tax cuts by making them permanent, but also that it do so sooner rather than later, to help boost the economy now and to reduce the growth-dampening effects of economic and fiscal policy uncertainty.

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  145. The Fly

    Jake:

    I might be misreading you.

    I thought you were saying the markets went up, due to lower cap gains. Last I checked, the markets rallied in 2003, thanks to the fucking nasdaq being down 85%, the three years prior. And, we had a boatload of reflation going on via housing and war.

    Classic econ 101 stuff too, no?

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  146. JakeGint

    However, if he does, my point, it is not a make or break. There are many other things that are make or break, such as corp taxes or restrictive trade barriers.

    Okay, let me ask you this — do you think any of the increase is already baked in?

    IOW — don’t you think if Barry stood up — today — and said, “Okay, that was stupid, no cap gains increases, ever” that the market would proceed to rip?

    And sure, the rest of the world is mad about our meltdown, but the fact is, capital will seek safe havens, and if we’re it, they’ll come here.

    They’re just waiting on a sign, that’s all.

    ________

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  147. JakeGint

    Last I checked, the markets rallied in 2003, thanks to the fucking nasdaq being down 85%, the three years prior. And, we had a boatload of reflation going on via housing and war.

    So the market went up because it had gone down? That was our catalyst?

    Then I guess we’re ripping tomorrow! Sweet.

    Here’s the fact — a cut in the cost of capital appears IMMEDIATELY in the increased price of capital assets.

    That’s the Finance 101 stuff.

    ________

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  148. WTF does fly know??
    WTF does fly know??

    Fly
    Your idiotic comments tonight prove to me that a bottom is here.

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  149. JakeGint

    Corp taxes are the highest amongst the Western nations. They should lower corp taxes; but they won’t.

    When they don’t, just know, they were high under Bush too.

    Actually Rangel is talking about lowering corporate taxes, and paying for that by raising the top income rates to 44%.

    That should be sweet for New Yawkahs. I wonder if there’ll be anyone left?

    I know my mom becomes a Florida resident TOMORROW if that shit goes down.

    ______

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  150. j

    Fuck, it just dawned on me; J is right.

    Capital is staying out of the U.S because they are afraid of Obama!!!

    How could I miss this?

    Well you missed it fly because you’re a stock money and as i continually say stock monkeys avoid macro at their peril. The US runs a current account deficit which means by definition that it has to import capital from overseas. So by definition the US is capitol short.

    And no they just aren’t afraid of Obama they are also very much afraid the Fed with devalue them out of the solar system. They also haven’t very much like the latest US policies either.

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  151. The Fly

    Jake:

    Go back and revisit the charts, post ’29. Yes. There comes a point where valuations get cheap enough to coil stocks higher.

    The markets ran in ’03-’07 due to a fraudulent housing system. The economy was rebuilt, post 9/11, using cheap credit and marshmallows. I am shocked that you are espousing this argument, frankly.

    If Obama said “no more cap gains,” the market would rip. But for how long?

    The Gov’t needs to lower corp taxes and let companies fail. They need to stop backstopping municipalities, in order to protect the labor market. They cannot put up trade barriers.

    They are making the same mistakes we made during the Depression. Keep people working, despite the balance sheet screaming “fuck no.”

    Eventually, all of this spending will come home to roost. When it does, it will bite the heads off of Main Street folk.

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  152. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Im drinking gin with Al jolson, Clarence Williams’ blue five and Ian Whitcomb and his bungalow boys.

    Get a taste, thats where we are all heading.

    Later!

    jake, BTW went to Huntsvilles state park, good times.@!

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  153. j

    actually the best US administration was Clinton’s with GOP oversight. The US also had a Sec of treasury who knew that taking care of the overseas investor was very important.

    Bush’s admin has forgotten about the overseas investor and how important it is to persuade.

    Funding $60 billion a month ain’t chump change, Fly.

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  154. The Fly

    J:

    You need to put on your sarcasm glasses.

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  155. j

    I do fly but in this case you were using sarcasm to make the same point.

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  156. JakeGint

    Yes, cheap credit helped keep the economy on life support, Fly, but GDP and job growth did not occur until producers knew that they could plan for a lower tax environment and their risk capital rates were lowered, making investing here in the US (instead of consuming) cheaper.

    The problem was that Greenie kept the spigots open too long… he should have increased rates as the new growth began to rip. Double digit quarterly gains in GDP growth should have been a “tell” as to sustainability.

    _____

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  157. The Fly

    We went through an unprecedented period of global growth, spearheaded by Asia. The U.S. markedly unperformed all developed nations, especially in real terms.

    Our multinationals were expanding overseas, not domestically. We had a situation where corporations were banking coin, stocks were going up on foreign gains, yet Joe the Plumber was still making $30 per hour.

    I do not know what the answer is, with regards to growing the economy from here. However, I will say, the way we did it the last time didn’t turn out to well.

    I will end this tedious argument of book vs book with this:

    THE TITANS ARE 10-0.

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  158. JakeGint

    Only because of the envelopes stuffed with cash being delivered to Jack Del Rio to be shared “as he sees fit.”

    _____

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  159. j

    Fly:

    There are 11 million illegals in the country. their effect on real wage rates cannot be underestimated. That’s the bull in the china shop as far as growth in real wages go for the low and semi killed. If you weren’t a member of the UAW you had to fend for yourself with people selling their labor for 5 bucks an hour.

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  160. j

    Here’s the quick and dirty macro justification for the Dow to go to 6,000 under obama’s policies.

    1. introduction of a cap and trade for climate mitigation

    2. introducing policies that increases the coat of capital

    3. Divert resources into consumption from savings by raising taxes on the higher income earners and doling it out to those that pay no taxes.

    4. Talk about trade protection schemes

    5. Protect the car industry where people earn 73 bucks an hours compared to 28 bucks an hour in comparable manufacturing jobs.

    6. Threaten to raise a VAT tax over the next few years to pay for the extra spending.

    Do all those things and the stock market will discount lower prices.

    It’s as easy as that Fly, although you don’t seem to want to understand it.

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  161. The Fly

    it’s much bigger than that. If only the world was as simple as lowering a few tax rates, then we’d have bliss and all enjoy the great whore.

    This is a runaway train, systemic collapse.

    Nothing can be done to stop it.

    So sorry.

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  162. El Tiberon

    Guys,

    WTF is with capital gains tax discussion…are you espousing the Austrian Theory…changes in capital gains are usually aimed at retail investors and I’m pretty sure they don’t have any money…

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  163. Speedlet

    dear god, you people are stupid.

    1) Capital gains were higher than they presently are throughout the entire 1990s bull market.

    Since capital gains have been cut, the markets have gone nowhere. We are now lower than we were when cap gains were lowered.

    2) Obama isn’t going to raise taxes at all in the next year. He’s been backing away from that “promise”. He’s said as much on 60 minutes tonight. His plan at this point is simply to let the tax cuts lapse in 2010, because he knows he can’t raise taxes in a recession. Instead, he will continue the Bush Administration’s policy of running vast, endless deficits. Deficits as far as the eye can see. Borrow and spend, forever. Happy now? Isn’t that so much more “conservative”? We will drown in our debts rather than pay for our spending.

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  164. Employee8

    Relying on cap gain rate reductions has contributed to the leveraged-up effect that we’re dealing with now … kind of a zero sum game when over done and the piper wants to be paid for all the dancing.

    J, look to debt as a % of GDP for the answer to deflation:

    http://declineandfallofwesterncivilization.blogspot.com/2007/12/onset-of-deflation.html

    “When the burden becomes too great for the economy to support and the trend reverses, reductions in lending, spending and production cause debtors to earn less money with which to pay off their debts, so defaults rise. Default and fear of default exacerbate the new trend in psychology, which in turn causes creditors to reduce lending further. A downward “spiral” begins, feeding on pessimism just as the previous boom fed on optimism. The resulting cascade of debt liquidation is a deflationary crash. Debts are retired by paying them off, “restructuring” or default. In the first case, no value is lost; in the second, some value; in the third, all value. In desperately trying to raise cash to pay off loans, borrowers bring all kinds of assets to market, including stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate, causing their prices to plummet. The process ends only after the supply of credit falls to a level at which it is collateralized acceptably to the surviving creditors.”

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  165. j

    Relying on cap gain rate reductions has contributed to the leveraged-up effect that we’re dealing with now … kind of a zero sum game when over done and the piper wants to be paid for all the dancing.

    Leverage comes from inappropriate monetary policy. Always has always will.

    J, look to debt as a % of GDP for the answer to deflation:

    http://declineandfallofwesterncivilization.blogspot.com/2007/12/onset-of-deflation.html

    “When the burden becomes too great for the economy to support and the trend reverses, reductions in lending, spending and production cause debtors to earn less money with which to pay off their debts, so defaults rise. Default and fear of default exacerbate the new trend in psychology, which in turn causes creditors to reduce lending further. A downward “spiral” begins, feeding on pessimism just as the previous boom fed on optimism. The resulting cascade of debt liquidation is a deflationary crash. Debts are retired by paying them off, “restructuring” or default. In the first case, no value is lost; in the second, some value; in the third, all value. In desperately trying to raise cash to pay off loans, borrowers bring all kinds of assets to market, including stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate, causing their prices to plummet. The process ends only after the supply of credit falls to a level at which it is collateralized acceptably to the surviving creditors.”

    sorry but the unwinding of an inflationary induced binge is not deflation unless there is a contraction of the money supply.

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  166. j

    Speedlet Says:

    dear god, you people are stupid.

    1) Capital gains were higher than they presently are throughout the entire 1990s bull market.

    Dickwad, not as stupid as you. What’s your point exactly? Should we raise them during a severe slowdown?

    Since capital gains have been cut, the markets have gone nowhere. We are now lower than we were when cap gains were lowered.

    Go ask the Fed why they are fucking around with monetary policy that is absolutely shambolic.

    2) Obama isn’t going to raise taxes at all in the next year. He’s been backing away from that “promise”.

    good.

    He’s said as much on 60 minutes tonight. His plan at this point is simply to let the tax cuts lapse in 2010, because he knows he can’t raise taxes in a recession.

    So umm letting them “lapse” isn’t a tax hike? Hahahahahahahahahhahahaha Who are you calling stupid, Dumphy.

    Instead, he will continue the Bush Administration’s policy of running vast, endless deficits. Deficits as far as the eye can see. Borrow and spend, forever.

    Please note that the Japanese government is running a budget deficit of around 180% of GDP and their interest rates are close to zero, so it’s not a given that the US capacity to carry a high debt burden is largely limited.

    The real problem with large government deficits is that it crowds out private borrowing.

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  167. Employee8

    J, you’re an idiot!

    A reduction in credit is the same as a reduction in money and deflationary …. you must be educated by Capt Kangaroo!

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  168. j

    Employee 8.

    Credit is not money supply doofus. if you can demonstrate that it is you’re owed a nobel prize.

    Go ahead present a case that it is.

    Look up the definition of money supply and you’ll find that its’ not.

    Now a de-leveraging of commercial banks balance sheets is a symptom of a contraction of the money supply but that hasn’t happened.

    Lehman falling over dead has no immediate effect on the money supply as they were a shadow bank. However if a commercial bank loses money as a result that’s different.

    This is why commercial banks are extremely important, whereas shadow banks are not.

    Now stfu.

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  169. Speedlet

    j,

    You can’t possibly be blaming the market’s entire %40+ collapse on the fear of an as-yet purely theoretical 5% capital gains tax hike that wouldn’t even take effect until post 2010.

    You don’t think there’s maybe a few other macroeconomic forces at work here? Like perhaps the staggering amount of debt choking off the entire global financial system?

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  170. j

    Sure there is and its really fucking dishonest of you to suggest I have been saying such a thing. I never said the economy was in the toilet for the cap gain proposal only.

    the market has fallen for the primary reason that the Fed has run a shambolic monetary policy that was hugely inflationary and we’re now adjusting for that.

    It’s correcting for the excesses in the banking system as a result of that policy.

    It’s correcting for some policies the current administration has enacted that won’t let the excesses clear out

    and it’s correcting for the things Obama is proposing.

    I keep telling you how easy it is to fix the US economy overnight.

    Eliminate corporate taxes and promise to freeze spending for a decade. The US would be out of it’s recession by mid 2009 and looking to print some really serious GDP growth by 2010 possibly even higher than 5%.

    And leave everything else alone. Don’t touch anything.

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  171. Speedlet

    Eliminating corporate taxes would be nice.

    “Promising” to freeze spending for a decade will not happen. Social security and Medicare alone will see to that.

    Neither of these will solve the main problem, which is the overleveraging of our entire society, especially the consumer. The American economy is consumer-driven, and the consumer is down for the count, unless he gains access to credit that will not be forthcoming. Where are the tax revenues going to come from that are going to enable us to run a balanced budget? Even if we freeze spending as you propose, we will still wind up running huge deficits as the tax base shrivels. If we restrain government spending (which would normally be my preference), we will shrink the one sector of the economy that isn’t already collapsing. We are in a lose-lose scenario.

    The orgy of debt we’ve run up in the last year will not be expunged in 12 months, no matter what
    we do. The only way we’re going to have 5% growth in 2010 is if the Fed prints its way back into inflation, in which case the “growth” will be an illusion. This is my bet for the “recovery” we will experience when we finally come out of this — it will be pure Fed-induced inflation, with real wages sinking like a stone.

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  172. j

    Neither of these will solve the main problem, which is the overleveraging of our entire society, especially the consumer.

    Leverage is coming down right as we speak.

    The American economy is consumer-driven, and the consumer is down for the count, unless he gains access to credit that will not be forthcoming.

    The US in not just consumer driven. In fact the consumer is about 50% of GDP, not 70% and if you looked at it in terms of gross domestic spending the consumer part of the economy is dwarfed.

    Where are the tax revenues going to come from that are going to enable us to run a balanced budget?

    From other taxes and as i said the budget will take about a decade to mend.

    Even if we freeze spending as you propose, we will still wind up running huge deficits as the tax base shrivels.

    No we won’t that’s untrue.

    If we restrain government spending (which would normally be my preference), we will shrink the one sector of the economy that isn’t already collapsing. We are in a lose-lose scenario.

    Nonsense, the government is crowding out private investment.

    The orgy of debt we’ve run up in the last year will not be expunged in 12 months, no matter what
    we do.

    That’s ok it will take time to weer out the debt.

    The only way we’re going to have 5% growth in 2010 is if the Fed prints its way back into inflation, in which case the “growth” will be an illusion. This is my bet for the “recovery” we will experience when we finally come out of this — it will be pure Fed-induced inflation, with real wages sinking like a stone.

    Possibly

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  173. Juice

    The Worst Is Not Behind Us
    Beware of those who say we’ve hit the bottom
    By Nouriel Roubini
    Forbes.com
    11-16-8

    It is useful, at this juncture, to stand back and survey the economic landscape–both as it is now, and as it has been in recent months. So here is a summary of many of the points that I have made for the last few months on the outlook for the U.S. and global economy, as well as for financial markets:

    –The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since World War II, much worse and longer and deeper than even the 1974-1975 and 1980-1982 recessions. The recession will continue until at least the end of 2009 for a cumulative gross domestic product drop of over 4%; the unemployment rate will likely reach 9%. The U.S. consumer is shopped-out, saving less and debt-burdened: This will be the worst consumer recession in decades.

    –The prospect of a short and shallow six- to eight-month V-shaped recession is out of the window; a U-shaped 18- to 24-month recession is now a certainty, and the probability of a worse, multi-year L-shaped recession (as in Japan in the 1990s) is still small but rising. Even if the economy were to exit a recession by the end of 2009, the recovery could be so weak because of the impairment of the financial system and the credit mechanism that it may feel like a recession even if the economy is technically out of the recession.

    — Obama will inherit an economic and financial mess worse than anything the U.S. has faced in decades: the most severe recession in 50 years; the worst financial and banking crisis since the Great Depression; a ballooning fiscal deficit that may be as high as a trillion dollars in 2009 and 2010; a huge current account deficit; a financial system that is in a severe crisis and where deleveraging is still occurring at a very rapid pace, thus causing a worsening of the credit crunch; a household sector where millions of households are insolvent, into negative equity territory and on the verge of losing their homes; a serious risk of deflation as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets becomes deeper; the risk that we will end in a deflationary liquidity trap as the Fed is fast approaching the zero-bound constraint for the Fed funds rate; the risk of a severe debt deflation as the real value of nominal liabilities will rise, given price deflation, while the value of financial assets is still plunging.

    — The world economy will experience a severe recession: Output will sharply contract in the Eurozone, the U.K. and the rest of Europe, as well as in Canada, Japan and Australia/New Zealand. There is also a risk of a hard landing in emerging market economies. Expect global growth–at market prices–to be close to zero in Q3 and negative by Q4. Leaving aside the effects of the fiscal stimulus, China could face a hard landing growth rate of 6% in 2009. The global recession will continue through most of 2009.

    –The advanced economies will face stag-deflation (stagnation/recession and deflation) rather than stagflation, as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets will lead advanced economies’ inflation rates to become below 1% by 2009.

    –Expect a few advanced economies (certainly the U.S. and Japan and possibly others) to reach the zero-bound constraint for policy rates by early 2009. With deflation on the horizon, zero-bound on interest rates implies the risk of a liquidity trap where money and bonds become perfectly substitutable, where real interest rates become high and rising, thus further pushing down aggregate demand, and where money market fund returns cannot even cover their management costs.

    Deflation also implies a debt deflation where the real value of nominal debts is rising, thus increasing the real burden of such debts. Monetary policy easing will become more aggressive in other advanced economies even if the European Central Bank cuts too little too late. But monetary policy easing will be scarcely effective, as it will be pushing on a string, given the glut of global aggregate supply relative to demand–and given a very severe credit crunch.

    –For 2009, the consensus estimates for earnings are delusional: Current consensus estimates are that S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) will be $90 in 2009, up 15% from 2008. Such estimates are outright silly. If EPS falls–as is most likely–to a level of $60, then with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12, the S&P 500 index could fall to 720 (i.e. about 20% below current levels).

    If the P/E falls to 10–as is possible in a severe recession–the S&P could be down to 600, or 35% below current levels.

    And in a very severe recession, one cannot exclude that EPS could fall as low as $50 in 2009, dragging the S&P 500 index to as low as 500. So, even based on fundamentals and valuations, there are significant downside risks to U.S. equities (20% to 40%).

    Similar arguments can be made for global equities: A severe global recession implies further downside risks to global equities in the order of 20% to 30%.Thus, the recent rally in U.S. and global equities was only a bear-market sucker’s rally that is already fizzling out–buried under a mountain of worse-than-expected macro, earnings and financial news.

    –Credit losses will be well above $1 trillion and closer to $2 trillion, as such losses will spread from subprime to near-prime and prime mortgages and home equity loans (and the related securitized products); to commercial real estate, to credit cards, auto loans and student loans; to leveraged loans and LBOs, to muni bonds, corporate bonds, industrial and commercial loans and credit default swaps. These credit losses will lead to a severe credit crunch, absent a rapid and aggressive recapitalization of financial institutions.

    –Almost all of the $700 billion in the TARP program will be used to recapitalize U.S. financial institutions (banks, broker dealers, insurance companies, finance companies) as rising credit losses (close to $2 trillion) will imply that the initial $250 billion allocated to recap these institutions will not be enough. Sooner rather than later, a TARP-2 will become necessary, as the recapitalization needs of U.S. financial institutions will likely be well above $1 trillion.

    –Current spreads on speculative-grade bonds may widen further as a tsunami of defaults will hit the corporate sector; investment-grade bond spreads have widened excessively relative to financial fundamentals, but further spread-widening is possible, driven by market dynamics, deleveraging and the fact that many AAA-rated firms (say, GE) are not really AAA, and should be downgraded by the rating agencies.

    –Expect a U.S. fiscal deficit of almost $1 trillion in 2009 and 2010. The outlook for the U.S. current account deficit is mixed: The recession, a rise in private savings and a fall in investment, and a further fall in commodity prices will tend to shrink it, but a stronger dollar, global demand weakness and a larger U.S. fiscal deficit will tend to worsen it. On net, we will observe still-large U.S. twin fiscal and current account deficits–and less willingness and ability in the rest of the world to finance it unless the interest rate on such debt rises.

    –In this economic and financial environment, it is wise to stay away from most risky assets for the next 12 months: There are downside risks to U.S. and global equities; credit spreads–especially for the speculative grade–may widen further; commodity prices will fall another 20% from current levels; gold will also fall as deflation sets in; the U.S. dollar may weaken further in the next six to 12 months as the factors behind the recent rally weather off, while medium-term bearish fundamentals for the dollar set in again; government bond yields in the U.S. and advanced economies may fall further as recession and deflation emerge but, over time, the surge in fiscal deficits in the U.S. and globally will reduce the supply of global savings and lead to higher long-term interest rates unless the fall in global real investment outpaces the fall in global savings.

    Expect further downside risks to emerging-markets assets (in particular, equities and local and foreign currency debt), especially in economies with significant macro, policy and financial vulnerabilities. Cash and cash-like instruments (short-term dated government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds that do well both in inflation and deflation times) will dominate most risky assets.

    So, serious risks and vulnerabilities remain, and the downside risks to financial markets (worse than expected macro news, earnings news and developments in systemically important parts of the global financial system) will, over the next few months, overshadow the positive news (G-7 policies to avoid a systemic meltdown, and other policies that–in due time–may reduce interbank spreads and credit spreads).

    Beware, therefore, of those who tell you that we have reached a bottom for risky financial assets. The same optimists told you that we reached a bottom and the worst was behind us after the rescue of the creditors of Bear Stearns in March; after the announcement of the possible bailout of Fannie and Freddie in July; after the actual bailout of Fannie and Freddie in September; after the bailout of AIG (nyse: AIG -news – people ) in mid-September; after the TARP legislation was presented; and after the latest G-7 and E.U. action.

    In each case, the optimists argued that the latest crisis and rescue policy response was the cathartic event that signaled the bottom of the crisis and the recovery of markets. They were wrong literally at least six times in a row as the crisis–as I have consistently predicted over the last year–became worse and worse. So enough of the excessive optimism that has been proved wrong at least six times in the last eight months alone.

    A reality check is needed to assess risks–and to take appropriate action. And reality tells us that we barely avoided, only a week ago, a total systemic financial meltdown; that the policy actions are now finally more aggressive and systematic, and more appropriate; that it will take a long while for interbank and credit markets to mend; that further important policy actions are needed to avoid the meltdown and an even more severe recession; that central banks, instead of being the lenders of last resort, will be, for now, the lenders of first and only resort; that even if we avoid a meltdown, we will experience a severe U.S., advanced economy and, most likely, global recession, the worst in decades; that we are in the middle of a severe global financial and banking crisis, the worst since the Great Depression; and that the flow of macro, earnings and financial news will significantly surprise (as during the last few weeks) on the downside with significant further risks to financial markets.

    I’ll stop now.

    Nouriel Roubini, a professor at the Stern Business School at New York University and chairman of
    Roubini Global Economics, is a weekly columnist for Forbes.com.

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  174. Juice

    Watching CNBC & Bloomberg early this morning. Definite new lows in sentiment from the parade of interviewees. Not one is looking for a rally. All are looking for new lows. Can hardly blame them.

    Even so, I am looking for another retarded rally from the lows today that yield a midweek high.

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  175. j

    juice

    Ever heard his policy solutions? freaking guy is an idiot? We will be down to 500 in the S&P if we follow his policies.

    He seems to get numbers out his arse.

    Anyways I’m buying another 5% of my long term position today.

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  176. The Zombie

    J, what’s Peter Garrett up to down under? Midnight Oil is one of my favorite bands. Way underrated. How’s his political career going? Can you guys make sure he gets to PM? That would be friggen cool.

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  177. Juice

    J – we’re going to S&P 500 in any case. Not this year, but over the next couple.

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  178. j

    Hi Zombie.

    peter Garret? The tall, bald piece of useless lard is the environmental minister. I despise him more than any public figure in the political scene down here.

    He’s too stupid to make it any higher up the political ladder and was demoted recently with parts of his portfolio taken away.
    ——–

    Juice,

    Anyways, fly is always spilling spaghetti sauce on Roubini every time he sees him in an Italian restaurant.. Aren’t you fly?

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  179. The Zombie

    Why, J?

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  180. j

    He couldn’t get in line with the governments policy and was always fucking things up in terms of either contradicting the governments policy or himself.

    he’s an environmental extremist that deserves (in my book) nothing but scorn, abuse and general unhappiness in life.

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  181. The Zombie

    So you hate him because he doesn’t play ball? Or because he’s not a warmonger?

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  182. j

    No Zombie

    I despise him because he’s a dickwad who doesn’t understand economics and thinks we could obtain all our energy from windfarms and solar which is an impossible task for a grade A economy that runs on cheap energy.

    In other words I despise him because he’s a dark green that wants to turn the lights off. I couldn’t give a shit if he hates war.

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  183. Phil_from_Brazil

    Juice,

    I don’t agree with you in your criticism of Roubini, saying “he pulls numbers out of his ass.” Yeah, it’s called forecasting. And, quite honestly, it’s more usefull than hearing some economist at the NBER tell you with 20-20 hindsight that we were in a recession 9 months ago — after the fact, that is.

    What Roubini is doing is he’s assuming P/E targets for an eventual SP-500 bottom that are in line with historical P/E’s of other severe recession lows. There’s nothing wrong with that.

    In fact, if you read Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash, you find that Prechter cites an 8-10 P/E range as coinciding with a severe bear market low. The current SP-500 isn’t there yet. It’s that simple.

    -Phil

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  184. The Zombie

    Is that reason enough to despise a person, J? Pop in “Head Injuries” when you get a chance. Or “Diesel and Dust.” Amazing rock. Enjoy.

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  185. Woodshedder

    Phil, is that a book or an article from Prechter?

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  186. j

    In fact, if you read Robert Prechter’s Conquer the Crash, you find that Prechter cites an 8-10 P/E range as coinciding with a severe bear market low. The current SP-500 isn’t there yet. It’s that simple.

    according to Merrill we have now seen S&P aggregate yield trade above the 10 year bond rate which is the first time that’s happened since 1958.

    Is that showing signs the stock market is cheap? Dunno. It’s a petty important mile stone through.

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  187. Contrary Indicator
    Contrary Indicator

    Prechter has been wrong for as long as I can remember, and all of a sudden his word is gospel. A broken clock is right 2 times a day, people.

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  188. Juice

    Brazil Phil – that was J who spoke about Roubini

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  189. sniper6

    Who does depression hurt? Depression hurts everyone.

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  190. ha

    sniper is that a prozac commercial?

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  191. j

    What did i do now juice…

    Oh that’s right I spoke against the Roub. Yea, look he says that total losses are about 2 to 3 trillion dollars whereas the IMF says its about $800 to $1.2. Why is the Roub right and the IMF wrong, Phil?

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  192. FXP

    There is no recession, look at me I am dropping like a rock everyday.

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  193. hat

    Contrary Indicator: Prechter is much longer term oriented. He warned that a top MAY be coming in ’95. Buffet was out of stocks in I think ’96.
    2000 was the “real” top when adjusted for inflation, and was clearly an irrational exhuberance blow off top.
    Prechter I believe has some relevent information, he has studied Elliot’s work, but I think he has some things very wrong, and he may fail to recognize the changes that have been made and adapt them. Elliot’s method is pre gold standard. Prechter got the rally of the late 70s and early 80s, but we happened to have just come off the gold standard, and could inflate our way out of the problem.
    Warning of a 100 year deflationary market is just rediculous. Bear markets occur much more quickly We’d need to see hyper inflation before that, which we have not.
    I think Precther and his elliot wave have some info you can learn from, but I certainly wouldn’t rely on him alone for market timing, and think you need to really check his theory against other information to get anything from it.
    I still find his information interesting, and it provides a new perspective to me. I certainly don’t think his work is gospel, but if you were in bonds since 95, were you really hurt all that much unless you were Dan Zanger and you missed out on record gains?

    I would love to see Prechter and Peter Schiff battle it out.
    Someone who thinks we will have major deflation vs someone that thinks it will be inflation. It would be very insightful.

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  194. Juice

    J – chill out .. I’m not attacking you, disagreeing with you, agreeing with you …. Phil attributed your statements to me, just correcting that

    but now that you say the above … I’d believe Roubini’s numbers before the IMF

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  195. sniper6

    It’s a commercial and an economic outlook too. One nation, for sale, at The Gap-like bargain prices.

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  196. jeff

    Point of order Fly – the Supreme Court ruled Tesla invented the radio…

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  197. Phil_from_Brazil

    Juice,

    Sorry, criticism is directed at J, not you. You guys have similar names — I get confused. 😉

    Wood,

    I was referring to Robert Prechter’s 2003 book, “Conquer the Crash: How to Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression.” The book is scary it’s so accurate. Prechter speaks about a long-term cyclical peak in the stock market and analyzes the economy using a clever mix of fundamentals and elliott wave patterns. I purchased the book in 2003, but lost it a few years ago. I repurchased it last week and devoured it over the weekend. I highly recommend it.

    -Phil

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  198. j

    Juice:

    No need to chill out i was just joshing around. You noticed i then directed the comment to Phil?

    Sorry if you took it the wrong way.
    Phil he’s been preaching doom and gloom since the 80’s. Not surprise there.

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  199. Just Thinkin

    Can we get a new thread sometime before Q4 ends?

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  200. Jakegint

    #200, Just, not bad.

    ___________

    Interesting notes of interest: SDY (dividend S&P) and RUT “hanging in there” in unusual relative fashion (ie, “Uncle Fester Style”).

    RUT has led (down) recently.

    ___________

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  201. T MOE

    I,m addicted to this market. I’m in Hawaii right now and woke up at 4:30 to catch the open. I shouldn’t have brought my computer. I am up too big on my shorts to not look at it. Wife sleeping right next to me in the comfy bed at the 4 seasons. My shorts have been on fire. Fly- too bad your hk is not working out for you.
    This market looks terrible

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  202. Observer

    Anybody whose posting name begins with J is a fuckin’ MORON. They seem to have forgotten that the stock market TRIPLED umder Clinton, with a 26% cap gains rate.

    Or that it has FALLEN 30% under Bush, mostly with a 15% capital gains rate.

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  203. sniper6

    I see HK is exactly where I left it week before last. Hmmmm.

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  204. sniper6

    Too bad UYG hasn’t performed as predicted. Ahh, shit, fuck, goddamn.

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  205. so i herd you liek mudkips
    so i herd you liek mudkips

    jesus christ, j. you’re act like you know what the fuck you’re taking about. many world-class economists are advising obama and his policies are directly derived from those recommendations, and from what i can see, he’s been following them to the letter.

    the fact that you disagree is more a point to your fucktarded asshattery than anything else.

    go back to reading Atlas Shrugged and playing with your model train set, the grownups have better things to read than you Randian garbage spamming the comments.

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  206. 2 years out

    What do people think for a longer term hold, say 2 years or so… Clearly current market conditions are tough to read for short term trades

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  207. NEW Thread

    I see the politicians are back
    Fly new thread please

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  208. j

    so i herd you liek mudkips Says:

    Dickwad, which mainstream economist has told or supported Obama to raise taxes during a recession. Name one.

    For that matter name one mainstream economist that is well known that supported Obama’s economic plan?

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  209. T MOE

    I cannot believe those of you who bought uyg
    dumbass move considering the financials have showed no intention of reversing their down trend lately

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  210. Johnny Rawcus

    Pretty funny Bloomberg article by Michael Lewis.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aKn.A9dgoN8k&refer=home

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  211. Grandpa

    Hat said:
    I would love to see Prechter and Peter Schiff battle it out.
    Someone who thinks we will have major deflation vs someone that thinks it will be inflation. It would be very insightful.

    Maybe they are both right, deflation now and inflation later.

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  212. T MOE

    clearly current market conditions are tough to read for short term trades ….

    2 years out-

    short term trend is down down down, has been for moths. Not too hard to read

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  213. ZenProfit

    Is The Fly in a “special meeting” this AM?

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  214. so i herd you liek mudkips
    so i herd you liek mudkips

    j: Nobel prize winner Krugman and the classy motherfuckers at The Economist.

    thomas the tank engine goes choo choo, here’s a fucking juicebox — have fun playing hide and go fuck yourself.

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  215. Phil_from_Brazil

    Hat,

    That’s some great insight. I didnt know Prechter was calling for a 100-year bear market.

    The one huge take-away from his book was Prechter’s assertion that Standard & Poors altered it’s P/E calculation in the mid-90s. The earnings estimate component used switched from reported earnings to operating earnings. Opeating earnings are not netted for one-off operating charges. According to Standard & Poors, it reflected a better, more fluid reflection of operating performance. Regardless of one’s read on S&P’s explanation, the outcome is the same: operating earnings are never lower than reported earnings. Hence, S&P’s new system led to an overstatement of earnings, and, in turn, an understating of reported P/E’s for the market.

    I checked the data set on the S&P website (Prechter tells you where to look for the data on the site) and sure enough, both streams were made available in excel format. If you plug their reported earnings stream into the P/E calculation, SP-500 companies trade at whopping 22 multiple rather than the 13-14 you hear about on the news (the latter P/E is a function of operating earnings). The 8-10 P/E bottom-end multiple that Prechter cites as coinciding with bear market lows is based on S&P’s reported earnings data set.

    So, you see boys, this market is far from cheap. And, if you expect earnings to fall sharply next year, the market gets even more expensive on a forward basis.

    Bottomline: I wouldn’t want to invest in THIS market.

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  216. Jakegint

    They seem to have forgotten that the stock market TRIPLED umder Clinton, with a 26% cap gains rate.

    You socialist morons realize that Clinton (with a gun to his head held by Newt Gingrich) CUT the capital gains tax in 1996, don’t you?

    Now, take a look at when the market took off.

    Innumerate douchebags.

    _________

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  217. wildraptor

    Fly,

    Isn’t it amazing how we can tolerate going up and down thousands of dollars a day in the market but yet shun a $100 wallet?

    I have to say I can relate to the mall experience you had. Took my woman to all the shops over the weekend in Dallas and everything was marked down (in red signs too, possibly to show the bleeding). I have to say, I kind of like the slowdown because the once snobby salespeople at Nordstrom’s are now ever so happy to greet you. Also makes getting a parking spot sooo much easier.

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  218. Bob

    I, as one of the criteria, judge a man and his intelligence by his language. You, fly, have the language of a gutter rat.

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  219. hauhIntisturiften

    hello it is test. WinRAR provides the full RAR and ZIP file support, can decompress CAB, GZIP, ACE and other archive formats.
    efypdunxfsaiukdxxgqxwdviljjimllghbkhello

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  220. hauhIntisturiften

    hello it is test. WinRAR provides the full RAR and ZIP file support, can decompress CAB, GZIP, ACE and other archive formats.
    quqbwsjedbolmflpektqhebcujiciqxjxijhello

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