Gambling Time

Today was the most tentative day that I’ve seen, in quite some time.

See, the tone for 2009 has yet to be decided. If you are long stocks, in size, memories of 2008 haunt you. Every time you read the business journal, you fret at the thought that people might start paying attention to the bad news.

If you are short, all you are scared about is dumb people, wearing florescent orange jumpsuits, buying stocks, or assholes, like Bill Miller, putting money to work. At the end of the day, it’s all relative.

I made money today, but it is of no consequence.

“The Fly” is into making large buckets of coin, not this petty loser shit.

My position into the close is the same its been everyday, for the last 12 months: fuck this market, it’s going lower.

It may happen tomorrow. It may happen next week. However, just know, you fucking assholes, it will go lower. And when it does, “The Fly” will bask in his glory, while drinking large bowls of ambrosia and eating excessive quantities of buffalo mozzarella.

At the close, I was short XOM, NOV, KIM, VNO and a little HANS.

My long positions include: VCLK, AKAM, C, BAP, TBT, NITE and STT.

As far as inverse etf’s are concerned, I own them all. You hear me you fucking faggots? I own them all (evil laugh).

“The Fly” wins again Update:

CVX Chevron announces that earnings for the fourth quarter 2008 are expected to be significantly lower than in the 2008 third quarter (74.24 +0.28)

The co reports in its interim update that earnings for the fourth quarter 2008 are expected to be significantly lower than in the 2008 third quarter. The company indicated that most of the decline is associated with lower prices for crude oil and natural gas that negatively affect earnings for the upstream business… Total U.S. oil-equivalent production during the first two months of the fourth quarter was 39,000 barrels per day lower than in the third quarter due mainly to the residual impact of the September hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. International liquids production increased roughly 10 percent, primarily the result of the completion of the expansion project and annual turnaround activities at the Tengiz Field in Kazakhstan, along with the continued ramp-up of production at the Agbami Field offshore Nigeria… As in the third quarter, full fourth quarter downstream earnings are expected to include sizeable gains from provisionally priced crudes and derivatives, resulting from sharply falling commodity prices… In the Chemicals segment, full fourth quarter earnings are expected to decline in part due to lower petrochemical volumes… The company’s general guidance for the quarterly net after-tax charges related to corporate and other activities is between $250 million and $300 million.

Mortgage brokers, in rooms the size of airplane hangers, work feverishly to “save homes,” via loan modifications.

I know people in the business and it is stomach turning to hear what the government/banks are doing. People 13 months delinquent on their mortgages are getting preferential treatment, instead of the fucking Marshall at his door. They are modifying all loans, regardless of credit history or income.

It is ridiculous.

We’re (our government) just throwing money away. Call me naive, but all of this reckless behavior has to come home to shoot the faces off of equity holders, no?

In the meantime, the market is break even, year to date. The tone for January will be set after tomorrow’s numbers.

If given a clean slate or lots of new money to invest, I’d keep a bias to the short side, with a 40% short, 15% long, 45% cash blend. Should the market respond positively to tomorrow’s bad news, I’d buy VCLK, STT, NITE, FFIV and maybe a little C.

However, I insist, all trades must be short term. There is a lot of bad news out there, that hasn’t been “baked in.” Furthermore, the imbecilic tea baggers on CNBC are incredibly, and I mean incredibly, bullish as of late.

Cramer has been penning a 100 part series on “why 2009 is going to rock.” and Larry Kudlow is calling for a “panic buying” spree in stocks.

Take what you want from that.

With my money, I will remain cautious. “The Fly” has been talking a lot of shit, as of late. But, please take note of the fact that he has held a 30-60% cash position, for the better part of three weeks. Despite having convictions, I am cognizant of the outside chance that I may be wrong.

Hence, I am patiently waiting, with 30% cash on the sidelines.

Bottom line: If your only hope for a rally is based upon the prospects of the dollar weakening or banks lending money, I think you are disillusioned, to say the least. Rarely do I hold cash, as many of my readers know. Most of the time, I am in the field, shooting howitzers at scared cats in trees. But, for the time being, sometimes the best trade one can make is no trade at all.

Barack the Builder, who is the official spokesman for the Bill Clinton administration, knows the economy like Beavis and Butthead knows fine dining.

If you are relying on government to get us out of this rut, good fucking luck with that fucker; you are in for a long, long wait.

The only thing government is good for is fucking up wars and keeping poor people in the idiot box.

Let your television be your opiate and just drink yourself to sleep, following a heaping bowl of macaroni and cheese.

In Staten Island, NY, the mayor (Bloomberg) is proposing a hike on the bridge toll. Get this: currently, the toll is $10. That’s not enough, according to Lord Bloomberg. He wants to jack it up to $14!

After all, we have the money. My money is his money, apparently.

As for the markets:

Bad/horrific news is having a muted effect on the markets. My guess, investors are jockeying for position, ahead of tomorrow’s employment data.

Oil is weak, despite the dollar going down. Retailers have begun the process of boarding up their stupid stores. And, finally, commercial RE is in the penalty box—as evidenced by my small wins in short KIM, short VNO and SRS.

Banks are sort of doing nothing, while semi’s and other tech names get the “homo hammer of certain death,” as evidenced by my lazy win in SSG.

This business of investing makes me sick. The people who are at the top of the pecking order, like Madoff, are total scum bags. Believe me, your broker has no fucking idea what he/she is doing. If you think your hedge fund manager is different, once again, you are wrong.

For the remainder of the day, “The Fly” is going to just roam around his office, thinking of ways to bank some coin, with the cash he has left (30%).

More on this later.

NOTE: Germany failed to raise 6 bill in a bond auction.

Why do you people bother blogging? No one reads your shit anyway. Let your readers come to my site and they will never go back to yours. It’s sort of like stealing your chick, back in High School. Hell, someone is going to do it; it might as well be Senor Tropicana.

I gots lots of shit in the proverbial frying pan. In my head, I run scenarios of potential wins/losses all the time. All of my moves are calculated, from blog posts to punching off your mustache through a glass of Chardonnay.

I was badly punished for shorting China last month, via FXP. But, I’m not done with that fucking cesspool. I’ll let you commy lovers pile into China, into their holidays. Then, when you least expect it, I will snatch the floating carpet from under you—if I may be so bold.

Either way you slice it, LFC and CHL are poorly positioned. And, don’t discount this SAY fraud crap. Family run businesses overseas will come under scrutiny. There will be more bodies.

I know oil is a very popular investment for the internet type these days. Back on Wall Street, most money managers I know laugh at you assholes piling into XOM, north of $75.

We laugh at you.

I saw today, in some yahoo vid, Eric “the oil barrel” Bolling is calling for oil to run up to $75-80. I’m not questioning his calls on black gold. However, I will say, there is NO FUCKING WAY crude runs to $80, anytime soon. It’s not happening.

Let me clarify my position: I am not bearish on crude here, as a point in fact. I am as bearish, as a howling devil locked in a closet, on oil producers and parts makers, from drills to rigs—the whole kit and kaboodle.

They will feel the ramifications of the credit squeeze and declining commodity prices, no doubt.

COP has over 22 billion in debt. PBR has over 24 billion in debt. CHK has over 14 billion in debt. RIG has over 14 billion in debt. CNQ has over 10 billion in debt.

The debt may seem tiny now, as a percentage of earnings. But, keep in mind, many energy firms have negative net cash per share ratios. Furthermore, should earnings bleed out, well then, we have ourselves a homebuilder situation, part II, don’t we?

With that being said, many of you have not learned your lesson yet, with regards to chasing down dead sectors. I am sure the market will rally again, sometime soon and you will be out there buying with both hands.

Feel comfort in knowing “The Fly” spits towards your general direction and that he (“The Fly”) will eventually win.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CikybHxxOB0&feature=related 450 300]

You expect me to gloat and brag about how much money I made in my shorts today; but you’re wrong. “The Fly” is humble in his victories and will work, with great vigor, to help his fellow neighbor find food and shelter, after his bullshit 401k plan goes to zero.

After being stepped on by asshole elephants yesterday, “The Fly” shot back with his street cannon and made truckloads of money in short XOM, short VNO, short NOV and SRS, DUG, FAZ, viz.

But I am not one to brag. Emphatically I implore my fellow neighbor to flee from oil related names, for their cap ex budgets will be sacked.

Just so you know, Horatio Clawhammer punched the teeth out of semiconductor players today, via SSG. I like my prospects shorting tech here, with Steve Jobs dead and all. It makes sense to be long SSG and REW.

In closing, no one deserves to lose money, per se. Howsoever, I will suggest, if I might do so, some of you tea bagging cow ball jugglers deserve a good grounding, and more. All of this giddy talk of run up, run up, run up, must and will be stopped, in due time.

I guaranfuckingtee the market ends the year lower than where it closed today. If I am wrong, well then, I will retire from the business of blogging—in exchange for traveling the world dressed as a Geek Squad employee.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THn4OmwxT_I 450 300]

I will cease and desist from offering false hope of doom. As always, I expect the best and hope for the worst—only when I’m short stocks, of course.

Today’s tape is a fucking joke. The sellers are NOWHERE, and I mean NOWHERE to be found. It is almost as if the government found out who they were and locked them in a storage facility.

If you’re short this market, you are not pleased with today’s tepid action. For Pete’s sake, the oil inventory data was 8X’s worse than expected, yet XOM is down a stick.

Fuck me on a spindle.

Frankly, I’ve had enough of this bullshit. I may just leave my business to my underlings and take my show on the road. I can do stand up comedy, inside banks—wearing a ski mask. Or, I can go fishing, inside shopping malls, near water fountains.

Needless to say, I need the keys to Zion. I need to find you fuckers, who escaped the Matrix, and have my robots murder your heads off.

Listen up you fucking fagots, the dollar is not going down in 2009. How about that?

And, on top of that, your local lender over there, that little piece of shit WFC, is going to dilute the shenanigans out of their idiotic shareholder base.

May your inheritance be fully invested in shares of SAY.

As an aside, with my money, I am semi-retired. I am into eating sandwiches and celebrating birthdays, on a daily basis. I don’t have time for this January shit.

Top picks: Turkey and mustard.

NOTE: A fine chart to get long on, indeed.

How much bad news do you want?

We have fraud at one of India’s revered IT firms, SAY. The whole country is without work, according to ADP. INTC shit the shower. Retail sales are a joke. They’re actually clown funny. House prices are still dropping. Although rates are dropping, jumbo mortgages are still pricey. And, to top it off, banks are going to need to write off another $40 billion, during the first quarter, according to analyst Meredith Whitney.

Amazingly enough, despite all the bad news, the market is hanging in there, sort of.

Over the past week, like it or not, the biggest winners have been the worst names, such as FIG, MCGC and ACAS. Everyone has been making such a big deal over the rally; yet, year to date, we are up less than 3%.

If Friday’s employment data is similar to today’s ADP data, look for sentiment to turn on a dime. The tone for January started bullish, but can end in a fucking clown cannon, on its way for a field of string beans, if you know what I mean.

Due to my bearish sentiments, I sold out of a variety of longs this morning, including ITW, BAC and half of my C.

At the present, I am holding AKAM, VCLK, NITE, C and a little FAS, just to name a few. Just so you know, I own lots of stocks, in small quantities. The point: I have reduced my long exposure to 15%.

At the same time, I couldn’t help myself, I bought some SSG (short semi’s) @ $71 and more SRS @ $52.50.

Although I am skeptical of this decline, due to my recent short sale mishaps. I have the confidence of a hungry mountain lion, trapped inside a conference room filled with 3rd tier bloggers, that I will be right, in due time.

Top picks: short NOV, short XOM, short KIM.

NOTE: I bought DUG @ $23.25.

I sold out of my ITW, north of $36.30. I sold out of my BAC position, north of $14. And, I sold 50% of my C position, around $7.30.