Reversal of Misfortune

There is no sense to be made of this tape.

China’s stimulus package has to ding treasuries, but it didn’t.

Commodity stocks should have run hard, but they didn’t.

U.S. bank stocks diverged from foreign banks, in a big way.

Intra-day, the market collapsed from the highs, yet [[EEV]] and [[FXP]] closed near the lows. Stocks like Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] remain stubborn, bucking the trend higher.

All in all, this market is out to bankrupt people, in disorderly, rapid fashion.

[[SRS]] , [[REW]] and [[SKF]] shot higher, but Asian stocks were strong!?!

What the fuck am I missing here?

My guess: Asia gets the mud kicked out of it tonight, effectively enriching [[FXP]] shareholders tomorrow.

Also, either way you want to slice it, reversing so hard off the highs is dreadful. On one hand, banks are severely oversold. However, on the other, commodity related names are too high.

Something has to give. Either way, I am sure it will be painful and entirely idiotic.

Top picks: short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] , [[REW]] , [[FXP]] , [[EEV]]

Going into the closing hour, expect the market to whipsaw about, in an effort to fuck as many people as humanly possible.

Just when it looked like we were rolling over, BAM, we melted up. The quick knee jerk reaction is to buy now, in anticipation of a late day rally. However, the market does not follow predictable patterns any longer. So, my adivce, as always, is to stick to a thesis, hedge up if you can, and deal with it.

If you are net short, prepare to average up. If you are net long, prepare to average down.

Basically, the volatility is so extreme, one could make money, with timely buys/sell, playing both sides of the market.

At the moment, I am net short. However, it’s worth noting, I am a little nervous about that, due to seasonality.

Until the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] and General Motors Corporation [[GM]] situation is resolved, expect a black cloud to loom over the markets head. With that in mind, I am comfortable loading up on shorts here. Of course, my position is different than yours, sitting on big year to date gains.

Whatever you decide to do, be sure to think “worst case scenario;” because this market is all about making peoples worst nightmares come true.

I no longer need to wear a disguise (mustache, sunglasses) when buying Dunkin’ Donuts coffee. See, America is all about being poor these days, with men like Joe the Plumber leading the poverty craze lower.

As you know, “The Fly” is all about conforming to current trends.

As a result, I no longer find it useful to walk/roam around with Starbucks cups, since rich people are played out. Instead, I wear my Dunkin’ poverty coffee cup with pride and outright dejected dishonor.

Also, I donated my extensive wardrobe of Ralph Lauren clothing to homeless dudes in Manhattan. And, to make matters “better,” I bought myself a new wardrobe of  “Crocklers” pants, “Beverly Polo Association” shirts and “Jones NY” suits.

Again, acting poor has never been so fun.

I drive through highway tolls, exclaiming out loud “poverty is making me commit crimes and shit,”  as I skip the toll. And, I send in my bills late, then ask for “payment programs,” due ot severe economic hardship. I envision a day where Steve (my neighbor) and I discuss the current state of NYC sales tax and how it affects regular folks, over a nice barrel of flaming garbage.

In other news, I’m going all in short here. The reversal is screaming “we’re fucked,” so act accordingly.

Oil will trade lower. With that in mind, [[DUG]] and short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] makes “massive” sense to me. Also, I have been buying blocks of [[FXP]] , [[EEV]] and [[REW]] .

At the present, [[REW]] , [[EEV]] and [[FXP]] are my largest positions.

And, finally, I blew out of a variety of names, taking losses, in order to reposition for the pending egregious move to the downside.

I sold short 3,000 Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] @ $18.15.

Disclaimer: If you sell short Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] because of this post, the Titans will finish the year 16-0, much to your chagrin. And, you may lose money.

UPDATE: I sold my entire BE Aerospace, Inc. [[BEAV]] and American Vanguard Corp. [[AVD]] positions, taking losses in the process. Better small ones than big. And, i’ve been buying block of [[DUG]] and [[FXP]] with the proceeds.

The rally is boring. I thought today’s rally would be so fantastic, so severe, that I’d be throwing guns at my trader/servant this morning. Instead, I find myself mocking this rally, while eating a very large bowl of oatmeal.

All of the usual suspects are up (commodities, Chinese fuckers). However, I decided to do nothing. If the rally holds, I might step in and buy some [[UYM]] or Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] . Basically, I find myself conflicted between hating the stocks that are gapping higher and understanding the power of the Thanksgiving rally. Barring seasonality, I would not even be thinking about buying stocks, period.

Bottom line: there may be more upside in the inverse etf’s down here, than fucking around with the fucktarded upside ones.

UPDATE: I am selling BE Aerospace, Inc. [[BEAV]], over $11 and American Vanguard Corp. [[AVD]] over $12.

UPDATE II: I bought 10,000 [[FXP]] , under $70.

On the backs of an egregiously large Chinese stimulus package, commodity related stocks should respond favorably.

Thinking fast, without traveling into the future to see what my stocks will do, tomorrow, I will probably cover some shorts, sell [[REW]] , [[SDS]] and [[DUG]] , and then do a 180 and get long [[UYM]] and more [[UYG]] .

You can never be long enough banks. So, I figure, might as well do it in style, via 200% upside etf.

As for [[EEV]] and [[FXP]] :

They will be my primary hedges, since they have the most value, down at these levels. So, I do not care if they gap lower, for I will be accumulating them.

Personally, I think today’s stimulus was baked into Friday’s tape. We shall see tomorrow.

Things to get long:

Okay, here’s where the Godliness of The PPT comes in handy. Aside from [[UYM]] , I might get long blocks of a variety of basic resource names, like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] or The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] or not.

I have not decided on my buy list yet.

At any rate, here are the top 3 rated stocks, in the sectors that I am most interested in (life is all about short cuts):

Major Integrated Oil & Gas

BP plc (ADR) [[BP]] Chevron Corporation [[CVX]] Exxon Mobil Corporation [[XOM]]

Steel & Iron

Ternium S.A. (ADR) [[TX]] Gerdau SA (ADR) [[GGB]] ArcelorMittal (ADR) [[MT]]
Farm & Construction Machinery

Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] Astec Industries, Inc. [[ASTE]] Joy Global Inc. [[JOYG]]

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Schlumberger Limited [[SLB]] Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc. [[HLX]] Dawson Geophysical Company [[DWSN]]

Shipping

DryShips Inc. [[DRYS]] Seacor Holdings, Inc. [[CKH]] TBS International Limited [[TBSI]]
Agricultural Chemicals

American Vanguard Corp. [[AVD]] Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P. [[TNH]] Compass Minerals International, Inc. [[CMP]]

Now, if the rally fizzes out, ignore this post and throw a copy of it into a burning barrel of garbagio. However, if the market is going to boot stomp higher, based upon renewed Chinese optimism, the above stocks will lead the way.

NOTE: For those of you who are curious about The PPT, here is an excellent summary, penned by my IT guy/partner.

NOTE II: Titans are now 9-0. In other words, “The Fly” wins again.

Geez, you midgets are besides yourselves, due to the Chinese stimulus package. Shut the fuck up already. How many times do you retards have to be proven wrong, in order to make you reserve your comments for other bullshit blogs?

I mean, seriously, you guys are fucking lame.

And another thing:

You faggots have no idea how Godly The PPT is; so refrain from commenting on something you have zero access to. At the end of the day, you’re all a bunch of haters, because you live in blue collar hell, hangin’ around a bunch of fucking losers, while I’m just bowling on you clowns.

In the most serious manner possible: fuck off.

At the end of the day, making money in the stock market is about having access to information and knowing how and when to execute trades. If you fuckers think that I offer no value, then just shut up and go play with your charts.

With regards to the markets:

Why not wait until trading begins, before making outlandish predictions? Frankly, I am sick to my stomach by you jackasses, calling for huge crashes or melt ups on a daily basis.

Get a grip or buzz off.

iBC is better than you.

Fire people;hire goats.

Sounds like a plan to combat those evil lawnmowers.

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