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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

HAHAHAHAH- So Fucking Stupid

Oh well, so much for the big fucking rally. Everyone with a Zeeco account sold the news and now here we are dealing with the aftermath. My gut says this sell off is a headfake. However, the aggressiveness of this train derailment is infectious. To me, jumping onboard the “sell the news” crowd is the most reprehensible act of non-violence one could possibly undertake.

The ISM numbers (big miss) will be blamed for the sell off. However, the truth is, every dicksucker with a series 7 license is trying to outsmart one another.

All in all, this is the reason why I am 60% long and not 100%. For now, I will let the dust settle and focus my efforts on real tangible moves, all pertaining to the arts of upside earnings surprises.

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iBankCoin: Prepare for Winship

Developing…

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FH0ReBfN-c 616 500]

NOTE: I will be busy tomorrow, all day, slinging fireballs from my perch.

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XXX FREE BLOGGING LESSONS XXX

Fuck you. I am not giving you shit.

Instead, I will offer you a question. The rest you can figure out for yourselves.

There are two newspaper stands, both on the same block. One guy sells “UPDATED NEWS, Live and Real Time.” The other guy sells “CLASSIC NEWS, OLD AS SHIT, BUT BETTER.”

Who will sell more newspapers?

Stay tuned next week for more “FREE BLOGGING LESSONS.”

Oh, by the way, S&P futs are +17 as you read this. Prepare for extreme SHOMPERY via WINSHIPPERY.

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May the Lord of All Human Species Be With You

Well, we’re diving into the bell. I can’t blame people, given what is being said by our fucking Congressmen on teevee. I am betting, to a small degree, a deal will be crafted. I took large positions in some stocks, but my largest position of all is cash.

I do not trust Congress, yet feel they can’t be so dumb as to allow this fat nation go without hamburgers for more than 1 day.

With that being said, I’ve made my bed and I will now lay in it, praying to magical beings to murder all of those who get in the way of a debt ceiling deal.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1nbvplgElw 616 500]

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Dramatic Rally is Right Around the Corner

Once again, I am playing the higher probability outcome, by positioning long into the carnage. With today’s GDP numbers, the asshats in Congress cannot afford to tip the ancient scales of reason into the crevasse.  A deal must be made, which in turn will lead to a sharp snap back rally. About 3-5 days into said rally, I shall liquidate again and spend the remainder of my summer at the beach.

As told weeks earlier, 15% of my book is in DECK common and calls. As you can see, it is having a grand day. I knew the stock would rally hard because idiots were selling ahead of imminent analyst upgrades. How did I know? Well, Q2 is always a light quarter for DECK, as no one buys winter boots in the summer. The novice saw a big build of 210mill in inventories as a net negative. However, I viewed it as DECK planning to sell a shitload of boots this fall. Needless to say, I was right and my position is a winner.

In my personal account, I am heavily long WNR calls, VXX puts, DECK calls and common and some GSVC. For managed, I bought monster positions in FLS, TEX, WNR and a little SWK. I reduced my cash position to 40% and will hold that line until the debt ceiling issue is resolved.

Also, with Q1 GDP revised down to 0.4%, look for THE BEARDED CLAM to have a word of two, during this years summit at Jackson Hole, regarding Qe3. The tepid growth is no longer benign and it poses a grave threat to this economy. It is the responsibility of policy makers and Mr. Clam to provide free money and lots of cocaine.

Trade accordingly.

NOTE: Should QE3 stay off the table and American austerity takes hold, I will be net short by Fall.

NOTE II: I added to GSVC.

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A Deal is Coming

Before I get into debt ceiling jargon, are you looking at DECK? I told you yesterday, when the stock was lower: “The Fly wins again, even when it appears he is in the process of losing badly.”

Do you doubt me now.

Space alien magician shit, kiddo.

I will be buying small amounts of stock here, betting on the outside chance our elected officials are not fully retarded. I am not going all in, because I still have my suspicions. Remember, some of these Tea Party people believe NOTHING WILL HAPPEN if the US defaults or fails to raise debt ceiling. These people are fucking morons. Anyway, I am done talking.

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There Will Be More Than Blood. There Will Be Recession

You do know how this all ends, right? All of this bickering back and forth on the debt ceiling is sure to nuke sentiment. This is now headline shit and every jackass American with an ax to grind is going to prognosticate doom and bloody gloom.  Have you been looking at corporate earnings? One monster miss after another. Couple that with the fact that we’ve never had a string of sub 2% GDP numbers without diving into recession shortly thereafter, I dare say we’re cooked.

In such an environment, one that imposes harsh austerity on the United Steaks and bedazzling ineptitude by our leaders, REPUBLICANS INCLUDED, deflation will reign supreme. The Senator will wish to have a word or two, regarding this outrageous claim. However, I will not permit him to eat his cake and do push ups at the same time.

We’re either balancing the budget and diving lower, as we should. Or, we’re printing FUCKLOADS of money, which will lead to the motherfucker of all bubbles, resulting in the most spectacular blow up of all time. People will saw off their own fucking legs. That’s how bad shit will get. Hilariously disastrous.

In a way, we’re at a cross roads. The politicians are doing us a favor, believe it or not, by dealing with this issue now. We never should have rallied 100%+ off the lows, since the economy is still dreadful. We went up on cheap money, hookers, and lots of cocaine. It is clear to me the choice is being made to take our medicine and “eat our peas.” I know for a fact, the good Senator from Kentucky hates peas; but he’s gonna have to eat them one way or another.

There will be trading opportunities, due to the opaqueness of the future. However, rest assured, should we implement harsh austerity, we’re going to 9,000 or lower.

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