VERY, VERY Dramatic

Let’s put things into perspective, shall we?

This is a bad tape, but not so bad. For the love of broken blue radios, we’re not even down 10% from the highs. People on the teevee are busy, with their pancaked make up, making you nervous. They are, without a doubt, fucking clowns.

It never feels good being on the receiving end of a murderhole. But what is the probable outcome here? Will the Fed just watch the economy double dip into the oblivion?

I think not.

The Bernanke put is alive and well. We’re going into the Jackson Hole meetings and the economy is in the tank.

Now, if you are short this market, you must be aware of the fact that the government hates you. The stock market is all we have now. It is our #1 export. Despite what your emotions are telling you (OMG WE’RE GONNA CRASH), there is a face ripping rally coming. The world doesn’t end like this, seamlessly without a fight. I am not sticking my head in the sand, ignoring the great and real problems facing the market today. I am simply positioning where the higher probability trades lie.

Remember, just last week everyone was giddy, snorting coke off the asses of gorillas. Now the world is ending?

Fucking drama queens.

WNR hedged their way out of a great quarter, AGAIN. Although they beat on revenues by almost $400 million, they fucked up again on EPS. Like I said in a previous post, they might be retarded, so don’t get mad at them. I suppose one could make the argument that they were simply being prudent, in the face of record spreads and a high debt load. I don’t buy it.

I am not in good mood and will be listening to their conference call at 10am.

On a side note, TDC beat nicely and the market is going to melt the fuck down today.

Cheers!

Okay Ladies and Gents, this is it! CVI and TSO quarterly reports are in and they were stellar. I am long of CVI (no Gartman) in small size and expect to bank coin on my shares tomorrow. But the 10,000lb gorilla snorting cocaine and smacking people in the faces with pancake pans is WNR.

On the skin of my cock, WNR shall report BETTER THAN EXPECTED NUMBERS tomorrow and guide the fuck up. Mind you, if they do not, the management at WNR is retarded, so don’t get mad at them. They’d have to be physically disabled to fuck up 321 cracks of $30+ and 20%+ Brent to WTI premiums. I mean, the CEO would have to roll into work in a fucking stretcher every day and gamble company profits on DNDN calls on a daily basis to miss this quarter.

I expect the shorts will catch spears through their skulls tomorrow, then tossed aside onto flaming barrels of garbage for easy disposal.

Aside from crazy anomalies, in my opinion, the only way WNR trades down tomorrow is if they announce a secondary offering, which is possible, considering their debt load. Plus, the relative share price is high. I hate to shit on your umbrellas; but that’s how the capital markets work. Don’t get mad, just deal with it and quit bitching about piker shit.

Barring an offering, “The Fly” will be fully robed and sandaled tomorrow, burning incense in his office until the fucking fire department is dispatched. I am crowned by the Gods, administrator of banking coin on these here internets. You should conduct rituals on my behalf and offer sacrifices in my name, as payment for what I do here.

We are rallying off the lows, pretty hard here. We MUST hold these gains and build on them, else we will shit the shower and cascade lower into the bell. I’ve decided to put my money where my mouth is and allocate 30% of my cash here—buying CLF, SWK, WNR, GSVC, TEX, FLS, TDC, CVI and EMN.

I know it’s risky and if I was just trying to get by I’d avoid the market here and “not be a hero.” However, that’s the mindset of a fucking coward. I am here to bank coin and throw javelins through the faces of my enemies, while wearing horrifying AFRICAN MASKS. If I am wrong, it’s only money and I will rebuild. However, if I am right, this trade will make my year.

As for you: don’t follow me into Hades, unless you can handle it. This is a high risk venture that may lead to the immediate removal of my limbs, leaving “The Fly” stubbed on the curb with just a torso.

I bought 15,000 CLF, sub $86.

And, I added to GSVC.

UPDATE: I added to all of my positions, taking cash down to 20%.

Disclaimer: African spears, and shit, flying towards your face.

I left the office this morning to think about the market. I am conflicted between two schools of thought. On one hand, the market is clearly oversold. On the other, how in the world does Italy and Spain wiggle their way out of this mess? Moreover, it is clear to me, it looks like we are heading back into recession, the old double dip.

I can take the hits now, book the losses and walk away with a 13% gain. But if I do that, I risk missing out on what is sure to be one of the most “awesome and amazing” snap back rallies of all time. Truth be told, my current roster of stocks are sucking “severe dick” (whatever the fuck that means). My recent spate of option purchases have gone to hell in a hand basket and my buy of TNA yesterday is laughable today.

The question is, are we in the midst of a 2008 style melt down or is this something that will pass?

Part of me wants to just bury my head in the sand, especially since I only have 50% exposure. The only way to guarantee snap back rally participation is by holding onto positions, even if it feels like hell on a hot day. Then again, only fucktards like Bill Miller trade like that, taking hits for no apparent reason other than to stay “long and strong.”

They are trying to destroy the market, by taking yields down and running up CDS. As you can see, they are quite efficient at causing panic. The only safe havens are gold, silver and treasuries. Incidentally, it has been in my game plan to get long TLT for August since the beginning of the year. I am fucking pissed at myself for missing the trade, when it was in the low $90’s.

What am I going to do?

I’m going to throw fucking spears through the faces of people soon, African mask style.

321 crack spreads are at record highs, above $34. The Brent/WTI spread is at record highs at $22 or 24%. Take a company like WNR, who gets their crude from the Eagle ford shale, which sells at a discount to WTI, and you have a company that is seemingly immune to the barbarity taking place in this market.

A company like Western Refining is to the stock market what Rome was to Britain, circa 75AD. Like the British, all other stocks aside from WNR and a handful of others, are neanderthals, unjust and outright uncivilized.

WNR is your evening cup of Early Gray with a dash of milk and honey, while your average Nasdaq tech stock is a 40oz of Crazy Horse, with a peppermint stuck inside.

As investors/traders, it is our responsibility to position our money ahead of the herd. I am putting my best foot forward with WNR and would like to see rapid appreciation, in the midst of Italian failure (no meatball).

Earnings are coming due Thursday and it’s always a gamble. However, if these numbers do not impress the small minded people employed at money management firms, then the planet is a sphere, Babe Ruth never hit an infield homerun and DB Copper died in 1972.

Fuck you CNBC for putting that fat fuck Phil Lebow on teevee today, talking up the auto sector. That’s the last fucking sector, in the whole entire world, I’d want to own here, save some bullshit Chinese burritos fraud stocks. We’re down 8 straight days and now many of you asshats are going short? Good luck. I suppose, to a large extent, it’s all a crapshot.

The only redeeming thing about this whole mess, for me, is witnessing Obama and Congress fail, on an epic level, in trying to turn this economy around. They are sitting ducks, dead in the water, future ghosts.

If I was 100% long today, I’d visit my friends office and punch the shit out of his sheetrock, in an uncontrollable exhibition of rage, then calmly walk out as if nothing happened. It’s days like this that makes me want to throw firecrackers at people or slap pedestrians in the face with hot slices of pizza.

If this market trades down tomorrow, that will make 9 straight days down. This is a KARL DENNINGER, ZEROHEDGE, DOUBLE BLUE BLAZER, APOCALYPTIC dive lower, no safety net. If you are a bear, this is your chance to kill everyone and eat their brains. You must pray for state failures and civil wars, famine and pestilence. Throw in a little epidemic, and I believe this market can go lower.

In the meantime, like a fucking idiot taking an MCAT exam, I sit here waiting for someone to give me the answers. The mood is outright morbid and we need Uncle Ben to get his “press on” so we can feel a little bit better about ourselves.

I could not help myself.

I bought TNA sub $67.5

TLT is gapping higher, as predicted by history. Over the past 9 years, TLT has gained in the month of August every single time, with an average return north of 3.5%. The market is getting killed today because investors have had enough with the excuses and ineptitude of our government. When you throw in the Italian and Spanish sovereign debt crisis, you have a recipe of sheer panic.

I was wrong when I said we’d rally on the debt ceiling deal. We had the initial reaction yesterday, but gave up the ghost quickly due to the meatball throwers in Italy. To be honest, given the news, I don’t know why I am long stocks. As a point in fact, I have every reason to be 100% cash or short. When buying into the blood, it never feels right and the headline risk is always against you. It’s the very definition of contrarian investing.

Despite being 50% cash and selling out of my DECK position near the high of the day, I am down 1% today, led by losses in TEX, FLS, WNR and my intra-day purchase gone south TDC.

For the sake of retaining my sanity, I will be adhering to strict stop losses, in order to protect my gains.