Obama the Zero

It’s all over folks. We can bounce off oversold levels; but it’s all over. Recession is all but a foregone conclusion. You should expect to hear a lot from “The Great Roubini” in the coming and weeks and months, warning you about “no more policy rabbits”—whatever the fuck that means.

The numbers all add up and you need to be honest with yourself. Obama is a zero, just like today’s jobs report. We are in the midst of a severe tailspin and our only hope is President Romney. However, before we can price that in, we need to price this in. Earnings estimates need to come down, a lot. Naturally, THE BEARDED CLAM will interfere in this fair fight and throw cocaine laden nuclear bombs at the bears. I don’t even know how to respond to that, other than contemplate taking up the hobby of puzzles. What I do know is the market will most likely be much lower than it is today, 6 months from now.

Over the weekend, I will be building a short sale list, to be posted inside The PPT first. I am not an overzealous person and understand the rubberband effect. Meaning: we can bounce from these levels. I just need to get my ducks in order, prepare for the inevitable whoosh lower.

If you got caught long today, do not be stubborn about your position. You may very well get a rally soon, based upon the notion that Helicopter Ben will toss bricks of cocaine out of his, ummm, helicopter. But remember, we rallied in 2009-2010 when the economy was growing. I am not so sure how QE3 will mesh with negative GDP numbers.

The math is simple: reduce 2012 eps projections of $94 to $70, slap a 13X multiple on it and voila: you have your real market bottom right there.

A quick way to blow yourself up is to believe there is no way your thesis can go wrong. For example: I believe the market will trade lower. Yes I do. However, I am not selling my WNR or GSVC. Reason being, I am not in the stocks for 1-2 points. I am in them for monster, gorilla, cocaine rallies, the sort of shit books are based on. I am perfectly comfortable absorbing loses in my longs, especially since my exposure is so limited. Plus, the market might just go higher, despite my sentiments.

Understand something, if I lose 15% on 40% of my assets, I am only losing around 5%. I piss on 5%. If timed correctly, I can reallocate my 60% cash horde (Ducktails) and bank 20% on keenly placed trades. That’s a 12% kicker, not including what I will make back on current longs into an uptick. In other words, I intend to make 20% on the next move higher, pushing my year to date gains past 30%.

Over the past few days, I’ve been bleeding out a little, 1% here, 1% there. At the present, I am +15% for the year; but my BETA is very low.

Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, I am sitting on my tank, smoking a cuban, watching amateurs shoot each other in the face with kalashnikovs. I have my TZA calls hedge (+30%+ today) and will sell it whenever the shadows near my favorite urinal tell me to.

Just a litte FYI going out to all of you cellar dwellers: the market doesn’t like these prices and is in the process of seeing them lower. Let me be the first to say, should we get a fucked up jobs report tomorrow, HORATIO CLAWHAMMER will return, with Merlin as his friendly, yet insidious, sidekick.

My TZA-TBT trade, net-net, is profitable today, as my gains in TZA outstrip my TBT losses. I am perfectly comfortable losing all of my money in TBT calls, as they were purchased as a hedge against insanity. If you fuckers want to be all insane and shit, be my guest. I don’t give a shit. Bring Swiss 6mo yields to negative 20%, allowing those yodeling bastards to inherit the Earth.

Despite the recent uptick, in the words of the underwater (literally) and without the luxuries of electricty Scott Bleier: “nothing has changed.” There are no reasons to jump in here. Might I add, it’s bad enough the only two stocks I have left (WNR, GSVC) tick lower daily; I don’t need the headaches of another set of sieves.

Although I am impressed by the action in CIEN, it’s not enough to get my face numb. For now, my favorite spots are TZA, TBT, WNR and GSVC. I will get back in, when The PPT flags OVERSOLD.

Without the adventure of buying and selling stocks for sport, things around here are rather bland. I’ve eaten numerous bowls filled with oatmeal, tossed a football around, contemplated riding a bicycle around town; but that’s just plain stupid. Mrs. Fly keeps my on my toes, having directed yours truly to not just one but three shopping institutions yesterday, where she managed to spend a little over $1k on things that make no sense. Truth be told, she must have been a very wealthy individual in her past life. Should my income somehow dry up, I’ll be on the street with a tin Tiffany’s can in no time at all.

Thank God us Wall Street fat cats keep the water flowing with money.

In case you were wondering, yes, I am waiting for the consistency of my oatmeal to firm up right now. I have a hideous wooden bowl next to my absurdly large Apple laptop and the water is being absorbed by the oats, as you read this. Generally speaking, I eat like a horse, without the luxuries of sugar or fat. That shits for pussies. “The Fly” is going to live forever, immortal, so he must eat a certain way. For example, lots of you ham and eggers chow down on steak tips with potatoes. But are your tips grass fed and where the fuck did those potatoes come from?

Like the government, I don’t trust farmers. Fuck farmers.

If you came here looking for some sage advice on the markets, slow your roll. I’m not into that sort of shit today, so you might as well fuck off.

Sometime today I am heading out to Whole Foods, where I get to buy a few brown bags of organic goods for a G. Even worse, I travel 45 minutes to get there, since this fucking Island that I live on doesn’t have a WFMI. It’s always an adventure, trust me.

Before I get into it, Cronkite contacted me today and he is okay. He’s been helping out in his community and was lucky enough to only lose electricity. He will be back news blogging shortly.

It looks like Wall Street finally got its vacay. The volume is dry and stocks are boring—Thank the space aliens who made us. I know a lot of people who are trading ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. I just think that’s fucking retarded, unless you have an edge at the Dept of Labor.

My TBT gave back yesterday’s gains, as money storms back into TLT. Can you say “unsustainable?”

The one bright spot is a the stabilization of the banks. But let’s be candid with one another, shall we? This market is a ticking time bomb. I’m not buying shit until TLT goes below $105. How’s that?

Until then, I will be building my screens inside The PPT, targeting stocks for purchase upon dips.

Since 2007 (inception), iBankCoin has undergone many transformations. We’ve had numerous site designs, bloggers and widgets come and go. The constants have been Fly, Ragin Cajun, Woodshedder and The Peanut Gallery. Inside “the PG”, readers contribute to iBankCoin and fight for the coveted King of the Peanut Gallery “castle”, awarded once per month to the best writer, by democratic vote.

Sadly, the time has come for me to nuclear bomb the shit out of the PG and usher in a new era.

Before you get your pitchforks, hear me out.

Within weeks, we are launching “The iBC Blogger Network” (fuck SeekingAlpha), with the explicit intent to crush the competition. Inside the blogger network, writers will get their own blog, free hosting, IT support and lots of exposure to iBankCoin’s 1.2 million+ readers per month. This new platform will be quite distinguished, with walls lined with the very best mahogany and corridors filled with high end cigar smoke. Feel free to come and sit down for a few minutes to enjoy some of iBC’s private stock of aged single malt scotch.

I invite all bloggers, or aspiring bloggers, to contribute to the iBC blogger network, only if you are interested in bringing your A game. Unlike the PG, where I let you fuckers talk shit, I will be firing people if they are subpar. In other words, bring your A game.

Having said that, this months King of the Peanut Gallery, and last King ever to rule this site, is Chivo. I’ve been noticing Chivo lately, as he is a persistent fucker, constant and on point with his message. Well done, Sir, and thank you for contributing to iBC.

In closing, I salute all past Kings who ruled over the ghettos of the PG and will remember you for at least another 15-20 minutes.

2009 Kings
2010 Kings
2011 Kings

Do not be fooled by the pretty exterior of this market. Many of you are being boiled, slowly, long garbagio into the soup. Get this, the Swiss government’s last bond auction was 7x normal demand and they MADE $4.2 borrowing money. Did you get that? Apparently, the Swiss have the best business model in the history of mankind, making money by borrowing it, or something is seriously fucked up here.

Last year this time, I got fucked long VXX into a 9% S&P melt up, which translated into a 50% loss in my position, a new record for yours truly. It was, without a doubt, one of the worst trades of my career. I doubted QE2 and it cost me millions. I will not make the same mistake twice and you can’t pay me to bet against Le Clam. However, let’s face facts here, this Friday’s jobs report is gonna suck bad. My risk on trade is betting against treasuries, via TBT. I am long WNR and GSVC and TZA calls. I have 40% of my assets long, some in TBT, the rest in cash.

On Jupiter’s stone, this market is giving you a gift. Quit being so damn greedy and take it, else get hit by errant lightening bolts in exactly one week from today.

If stocks are for asshats, then bonds are for retards. Explain to me why people are buying 3 and 6mo Swiss bonds for (0.75%) to (1%) yields? The buyers of these bonds are paying the Swiss government 1% to lend them money?!?! What!

If I was running the Swiss bank, I’d issue a gagillion in debt and buy the world, enslave everyone under the banner of the CHF and invade France for fun. Are things really THAT bad or is this the work of dramatic individuals playing stupid with other peoples money?

Here at home, treasuries are absurdly cheap too. There cannot be a sustainable rally if fucktards are still bombing the bond markets with fresh cash. I stepped in and bought some TBT today, as a play against this insane flight to safety. I will limit my downside to $1.

Today’s tape is confusing. On one hand, industrials are doing quite well. On the other, a variety of names that interest me aren’t trading with vigor. Things are sort of milquetoast after the early morning push. It didn’t help that the morons who run our country slapped AT&T with an anti-trust for the T-mobile acquisition. The anti-business environment of this government is pervasive and an obstacle. They are not helping sentiment.

Aside from my TBT purchase, I am sitting this fucker out. I made back 25% on my assets over the past 3 weeks. If I was to push the envelope here and fuck up, due to Friday’s jobs report ball and chaining the market, I would not be able to reconcile with myself. It was bad enough that I missed the beginning of the August crash, part 1, by one day. This time around, I am sticking to my game plan.

Okay, since everyone is espousing caution in September, due to it being “a bad month,” I am tempted to just buy shit. Did these people forget the S&P went up 9% in September of last year? Is there anyone out there bearish on volatility? It’s plainly ridiculous how everyone gets in lockstep with one another. Nevertheless, I am opting to avoid stocks due to my own beliefs. For example: TLT and GLD are too high, people are buying Swiss debt and locking in 1% losses via negative yields, Italian yields are creeping higher and Greece is scheduled for a bailout on 9/7. That’s enough for me.

The pendulum has swung back in favor of the bulls, rightfully so. Most of the pessimism that took hold of the market in early August was purported by professional short sellers, only interested in breaking the market.

Going into September, lots of momentum stocks are worth a look. For example, NFLX has been up 8 of the last 9 Septembers. And, CRM, NKE, CME do extraordinarily well in September. So it’s not all bad, asshats.

Bottom line: I am 40% in, with a TZA call option hedge in my personal aggressive accounts. I will dive back into this tape when the conditions that I mentioned above abate. Do not forget how bad you sucked three weeks ago. It is entirely possible that this little rally will be short lived. If we are heading back into recession, remember, earnings will be cut by 30% across the board, putting the fair value of the S&P at about 900.

Remember when I warned you not to listen to people talking shit on the teevee and the internets, declaring the end of the markets are near? Well, those people are inside of an inferno funhouse right now, struggling to keep their skin in the game. However, on the other side of the spectrum are clowns shooting themselves out from carnival cannons, always bullish, often wrong.

Despite what many of you believe, especially newly minted readers, “The Fly” is not a permabull. As a matter of fact, on occasion, HORATIO CLAWHAMMER makes an appearance and he enjoys to see the world burn, if only for a short period of time. Having said that, I am not bullish here. It’s time for a breather. If you do not allow yourself to chill the fuck out, you’re gonna die.

Go bake in the sun, drink yourself retarded.

I’ve taken this respite to go to cash (60%) and hedge my personal accounts with TZA call orders, specifically the Sept 40’s. I will buy them in 10 contract increments until the market breaks. I suspect we have 200-300 points of near term downside and I have little interest in losing money on fresh longs.

Like I said before, there are plenty of stocks tempting me. I will share my buy list inside of The PPT this evening. However, I am always careful when markets tempt me, always a trap of sorts to saw my legs off and hack away at my scrotum.

No thanks!