What do you think is happening to large Japanese institutions and insurance firms? They have massive exposure to equities and will likely need to start unwinding soon. This is where the potential systemic risk lies, which is why you should be avoiding equities.
For example, Nomura Holdings owns 35% of FIG.
Why am I stubbornly long WNR, in the midst of crisis?
Two reasons:
The refiners are isolated to the U.S. market. At the same time, they profit from supply disruptions in Japan. Very soon, Japan will be importing vast quantities of refined crude. The second reason is profit margins. For the refiners, the only thing that counts is the crack spread. Right now, it is at record highs, above $23. Check crack spread prices here. It’s worth mentioning, The PPT automatically calculates the crack spread and applies said score to the refining sector.
While gold/silver might make sense now, there is a distinct possibility that this market may start to unwind, effectively fucking “large crowd” trades. In other words, your local hedge fund manager is willing to risk, oh, another 3-5% before he heads for the exits. I rather get out early than die late.
The top rated stocks, inside of The PPT, based upon technicals, are the following:
WNR, iPGP, ACI, LNG, COG, PAY, BTU, ADS and CHK
NOTE: PESI has been weak. But look what they do.
“Who will not comprehend the truth with his understanding, but only with his belief, can not harvest the fruit from it.”
I still think Liquid Nat Gas better play, like GLNG, etc that bring it in, fwiw. But being long in anything in this market is fighting the major trend at the moment. AND OMG I TOTALLY FORGOT about the holdings of the Japanese Insurance Companies….Fly you are a Great Space Alien. I have to go learn all their names and major holdings tonight, unless someone already has a list?
also, FIRST.
i have said list
For a small monthly fee he can provide such list
Bullish, The list is at PPT? I know the big cap global insurance companies, but I forgot to focus in on the Japanese ones that actually may be needing to raise cash even more and the ripple effects that are caused by that.
inside the ppt, you get that whole sector
You obviously do not want to start up the FAZ mobile. Can you share your reasoning?
We’ve been trained not to short. If the meltdown in Japan is contained the action could become a tit-ripping short squeeze. POMO is always lurking under the surface.
Because if they solve the nuke crisis, we rally 500.
Has anything been mentioned on the plant’s electrical and control systems? I imagine that the pumps used are central to the reactor and no personnel would likely be able to visually inspect them over the last few days…Not to mention just the electrical transmission and transformers within the plant. It may have been damaged by earthquake/tsunami/fire/explosion.
The pumps are probably okay, they just need electric power. There was a news report that a new main power line was almost in. Pumps in a power plant are usually started remotely.
Well it does appear that most of the damage is to the drywall. The concrete barriers are substantial but I would still be concerned. Any ideas on what type of pumps these are? If they are centrifugal, I hope they are OH2’s or vertical cans.
An apt avatar?
Sage insight!
Also very curious about that.
So right. Risk off now basically means cash, since PMs were so crowded.
Watching refiners, solar, gas, and coal together. Proxies: WNR TSL NGL and ANR respectively. The race is on for the immediate solutions to Japan’s power loss. As of today, I like ’em all.
PESI didn’t work out but ES is working well. Look at what they do: http://www.energysolutions.com/our-company/emergency-response-247
(laughter) US housing a safe haven trade?
Only if we can ship the houses to Japan, or give them visas to move in here.
Zing!
thats a hot list
Fly ,
do you think the the Japanese Government will take a lesson from Ben and put a daily bid under there market to absorb those shares being distributed– for example by insurance company’s/Banks and so on , in attempt hold to MSCI Japan above its July 2009 lows , in order to avoid a march 2009 low test .
Going by (EWJ) that would be about 9.10 here next area would be around 7.00. I think there trying hard at least ,and Bens crew is buying double via equities.
That’s what makes me not going heavy short here, better to look for plays like (WNR) that could benefit if the market tanks or if it rebounds (from government buying equities)
any thoughts on coal stocks to go along with the refiners ?
(KOL) (BTU) (ANR) (MTL) ..
What?
They are already doing that…
You’re bearish on PMs fly? Can you elaborate please?
I am playing the “solve the nuke crisis” bounce….shit always gets solved, this isn’t a hollywood movie.
How’s the perfect trading going? Still 100% accurate? Just curious.
I agree it gets resolved – the question is when
Bullish
I do well then there is a lot of volatility and back and forth…not sure why, i guess it suits my personality.
I was down a bit today, but i am up pretty good the last three weeks.
Yeah well, I prefer cocaine induced never ending rallies.
Natural disaster trading is for the birds!
#bringbackthepomo
Not to get too serious, but Fly has shown his compassion for Japan, decency and hard work amidst all his hilarious jokes and brilliant insight shows himself a gentleman and scholar. I salute you, monsieur Fly!
Happy Irish Greetings. So I am now making Corned Beef and Cabbage for Pedro and the other illegals here in Fly’s shed. And it is not easy to do in this radiation suit. I am adding matzoh balls and tequila soaked goat and corn chips for my new amigos. I will bring some over for the Fly family as soon as the goat is fork tender.
Slán.
Steve, you got skills boy.
Granted I blew it on CCME (had no position) but I do own CBEH and today’s report was totally bogus. They released it right before the 10K came out (KPMG stamp of approval) to cover their short positions (they needed the liquidity that panic selling provides) which is why the stock has regained nearly all of its losses in AH trading.
Stock manipulation at its finest.
This is the guy who released that bogus Upton Sinclair report.
http://seekingalpha.com/author/ben-axler
1) Japan has made a deal with Korea to buy Japan’s oil invty and resell Korean refined product back to Japan:
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFTOE72F02420110316
2) PESI > Looked at their website and didn’t see any evidence of international operations … Please advise!
3) Recent Comments Section > WTF .. WTF … WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4) Hope the water pumps having power restored don’t have any broken lines from the earthquake:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/03/16/501364/main20043917.shtml
If this works … get out the Rally Monkey
I got stopped out of PESI today. I am very disappointed. They do work for the US Energy and Defense. It is dubious whether Japan has the capability to handle all aspects of the emergency themselves.
I had the same reaction to PESI – they seem unlikely to be involved
–they are US only
–only 1 of about 10 locations is on the West Coast
–seems unlikely that the US is going to accept radioactive waste from another country
Perhaps ACORN can lend a hand?
Long Habitat for Humanity.
The Bernank’s methods are fucking dying … fucking withering in the wind. Japan apocalypse is only a racket used by the cock roaches on WS.
We’re coming apart at the seams.
For real time news pertaining to the markets, remember to follow iBC’s news team at @ibc_fn
Or just see our news page, here: http://ibankcoin.com/news
Fly, your news feed is a great asset. It saves me much time. Gracias.
Second that.
And nicely breaks up the fucktard jokey-jokes on The Twitter.
Are too many people waiting for the requisite POMO-inspired nuclear-saving “tit-ripping” rally? Me thinks with this sentiment we may easily go down another 5% spot. Oh by the way i had a limit order that got hit on OPEN and ive held it… Its been incredibly strong past 2 days. Why?
Today was not a good day for this guy:
http://tinyurl.com/whatswiththesuit
Is that you Marbury?
they are gonna beat this thing
wth u all the way < Bro !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
START CARVNG THAT PINEAPPLE COFFIN OUT FOR THAT POOR EXTREEMLY LONG GOLD !! FUTURES JUST RACED UP THEN DUMPED GOLD !!
NEW LOW COMING 1,380
If you see a low of 580 in gold coming, let us know. Otherwise, STFU.
I had no idea markets would be this resilient to all the geopolitical / catastrophic issues around the world. This is amazing.
Hey WTF is going on after hours? Should i raise some cash?
ChessNwine talks about the Yen carry trade in his Market Recap…I would pay attention to that.
http://ibankcoin.com/chessnwine/2011/03/16/video-market-recap-031611/
That was really good. Thanks for bringing it attention.
“solve the nuke crisis”? Are you kidding me, they ain’t solving shit for a long time.
At TMI It took 5 years before they opened the containment dome and realized part of the rods had melted down…it will be years before anyone goes close to this place and figures out what happened.
If it will just cool down and people stay the fuck away from it for several years that’s all we need.
300-900 years for Chernobyl, not LOL.
You are the master of the herd fly, as omniscient as a crumpet. Nonetheless your ability to change your mind makes you.
I TOLD YOU PEOPLE!
they have this under control!
Buy TEPCO (Tokyo Electric, etc.) in Japan after its down 80%?
Can use my IB (Interactive Broker) account but I am too chicken especially since I do not know Japanese Bankruptcy laws.
Just answered my own question.
tepco is oversold
Anyone see the JPY hit 76 After hours?
Someone got ass fucked there. Fucking leverage: It’s great on the way up. Sucks on the way down.
That could leave a mark
You have to tame that crack addiction.
the nuke crisis in Japan will not be solved, take heed, it is out of control.
It’s a good excuse to let stocks unwind, force some spending cuts, talk tough about inflation and then to bring in a firehose of money to spray all over the melting stock markets.
Don’t you know?
George W. and the CIA created the earthquake and tsunami in order to destroy their enemies and achieve their nefarious goal of world domination.
…by controlling Gozilla’s brain with a neuroelectrical halo that stimulates controllable behaviors. But the mainstream media won’t discuss it.
Buy Dips with Vigour and pay little attention to stray spaceships!
O me sheitty: USD/JPY. I miss a new zip/area code lotto ticket to the starz agAIN!
OEW sees the correction ending in a day or two with the bottom being within +/-7 points of the 1232 pivot which would equate to a 9% correction. If the market sells off to between 1225-1239 dip buyers s/b ready for a reversal and buy once 1240 is breached to the upside … Just saying.
1340. Next Thursday.
Weurd.
Just trying to figure out the USD/JPY
What Japan needs to import is more money. It won’t bring in more money by making its exports more expensive. The last thing Japan needs is a stronger yen. It was a stronger yen, after the Plaza Accords, that over heated Japan’s domestic economy until it imploded in 1990–never to fully recover.
Japan can not totally rely on creating unlimited amounts of yen out of thin air, and Japan must have more yen. The need for untold trillions of yen, in order to rebuild northern Japan, will inevitably force Japan to sell a serious amount of its surplus foreign currency holdings. Japan is the second largest holder of US debt.
It could well be the threat of Japan dumping large portions of its US debt (Treasuries) that is strengthening the yen and weakening the dollar. When Japan actually starts selling it US Treasuries, the USD could really tank. The higher prices of Japanese goods to US consumers, will further undermine Japan’s recovery efforts. It will also exacerbate the already growing inflation problem in the US.
Due to a market meltdown that will be followed by some serious deleveraging, the recent market winners, like precious metal ETFs and mining stocks, may be taking a hit along with the rest of the stock market. However, if the USD gets hit hard by a firming yen (due to Japan’s widespread future selling of US Treasuries), then the the values of gold and silver should ultimately strengthen substantially. This present nuclear disaster in Japan may become the tipping point for many debt-backed, post industrial nation fiat currencies.
Another scary story about someone selling US Treasuries; first the Chinese, then Pimco, now Japan…and rates remain at very low levels…
Sometimes, the scary stories are more than just stories. I got out of the ARS market 10 days before the PDs stopped propping up the auctions. Ponzi schemes work, right up until the time they don’t. This is the latest prognostication of doom that I have seen:
“The yen surged to a record high against the dollar on market speculation Japan would repatriate funds to pay for the massive cost of post-disaster reconstruction. The yen rose as high as 76.25 per dollar, surpassing the previous record high of 79.75 reached in the wake of the Kobe earthquake in 1995.”
And that’s even after the BOJ added 23 trillion yen in a two day period in order to “stabilize” the market.
Where are the cargo helicopters dropping 5000-lb clamshells of premixed concrete
(at 15-second intervals) onto the reactor(s) with exposed rods? Along with 30-foot
steel I-beams for re-enforcement every 15 minutes?
In a half a day that would be 7200 TONS of concrete. Let’s see radiation leak thru that!
Instead they fly copters 500 feet above the reactors, never bothering to even slow down,
dropping WATER which is sprayed around lby the wind like a light rain. It’s like me
pissing in a hurricane. Pathetic.
No expert here, but I imagine it’s not advisable to hang around blown-up reactors any longer than you need to.
Digest this…
http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-20042852-76.html