Three Days Left

Nasdaq futures are currently gap down a bit as we head into the final few days of trade in 2014. Volumes and range are both normal but on the low end of 1^st sigma suggesting participation is here today but perhaps a bit light.

Sellers managed to print the two major rotations of the session. It looks like a bit of follow-through on the late-Friday selling. Overall the price action was contained inside of Friday’s range.

The intermediate term is neutral-to-bullish. We can see the market coming into balance (overlapping value areas) with the exception of Friday when price went exploring higher.

The high of Friday looks a bit vulnerable even though the market found some sellers late in the session. That initial impulse of selling Friday may have already seen its follow through during our globex session.

Early on I am looking for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4311.25. If buyers can sustain trade above 4304.75 then I will be looking for a push up to test overnight high 4320.75 and beyond to the prior swing high up at 4323.75.

Hypo 2 is a push lower to take out overnight low 4298.25 opening the door to target the mCVPOC at 4295 and Friday low 4293. If buyers are not found here then sellers will likely target last Wednesday’s VPOC at 4290 then a closing of the Christmas gap down to 4281.50. Expectation is we find responsive sellers down here.

Hypo 3 strong drive up, take out overnight high 4320.75 early and target the 11/28 gap fill up to 4333.

I have highlighted these levels on the following volume profile chart:

The year is drawing to an end.  That does not mean you can rest your weary head.  Prepare yourself for the new year by positioning ahead of it.  A new fresh year, what are your goals?

I am working on less chasing, even more anticipation.  This is my goal after reviewing over 800 trades.  It comes down to being right verses making money, friends.

Anyhow, Weekly Strategy Session subs, the latest report is out.  May it guide you in positioning for greatness.

The conglomerate we call Facebook will do the $100 dollar roll

By June The European Union will flare up a negative news cycle that lasts 2-3 weeks

An increasing presence of private drones will be seen flying through the skies

Solar and Tesla stocks will be strong even as oil remains weak

Robinhood brokerage will begin allowing option trading

The Fed will raise interest rates before June

The Option Addicts copper trade will start to work

Telecoms will outperform

Airlines will outperform, OWW will finally breakout, VA will be the best performing airline stock in 2015

LED stocks, CREE especially, will have a strong year

Google will start the year strong

More traders will begin exploring mental training to enhance their performance

The droughts will worsen in the West

The Nasdaq Composite will trade to a new all-time high

Snapchat will be acquired for more than $4 billion dollars

Zillow will trade down to $40/share

Dick Costolo will be fired with much fanfare

Uber will go public

PLAY shares will trade below $15

Kim Dotcom will save the internet again from a massive hack

Oil will trade below $40/barrel

Housing prices will see another drop in hard hit places like Detroit, Las Vegas, and Florida

Student loans will cause a 1-2 week negative news cycle

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Man, market watchers, talkers, and traders beat this phenomenon to death but here it is—Santa has come to town in the form of a grotesque-day-after-Christmas rally. It is almost surreal, there were so many signs of its coming, yet so many doubters.

You had to come into today long, gents. That meant holding some risk through the holiday. If that is something that affects your ability to enjoy your friends and family then this might not be the right vocation.

Perhaps something more structured, like accounting, would make sense.

However, if you have a penchant for risk and a nose for opportunity then you likely come and stare at these market waves every day. Good, you are my people.

We are at all-time highs on the Russell. The week is over, and January is just around the bend. The first week of Jan, it’s anyone’s guess, but I am from the school of thought there will be one or two stocks behaving like hyenas to the upside.

Enjoy your weekend. If you feel anxious because you are ‘under-exposed’ my best advice is not to chase, you are not alone, and greed is elevated.

Protect your neck by finding a stock that is set up but has not run yet, and wrap some risk on it.

Good morning everyone. The overnight session has traded less than 3000 contracts so far on a drift up toward Wednesday’s high. The session features one rotation, said upward drift, which thus far has encompassed 14.75 points of range.

We are entering day 7 of the market on an upward auction, an auction which came into balance during days 3-6 and entered a sideways drift. Weekly Strategy Session readers, you may recall we were on watch to see if the big-range index volatility would persist of if instead we would tighten up and allow individual stocks to perform on their own merit. Thus far the week has shown signs of the latter.

With the right bit of chart massaging you can clearly see the balance formation we are currently trading within. This gives us parameters for a session that is likely to see 2-way, local-to-local type trading which favors scalping from the outside-in, like playing ping pong.

Up above the current balance are a few magnets; there is a naked VPOC at 4313.50 dating back to December 8^th then there’s a weak high just above that at 4315.50.

Alternatively, there is a bit of a thin zone below the current balance which comes into play if we trade below 4271.25.

Primary hypo is to see an open auction inside range which tests above the overnight high where we find responsive sellers who work to fill the overnight gap down to 4281.50. If buyers are not found here then we continue down and resolve Tuesday’s gap at 4279.50. I will be looking for signs of buyers here as well.

Hypo 2 is an early push higher which works higher to 4307.50, then 4313.50 then finally targets a break of the poor high at 4315.50.

Hypo 3 is a rejected move higher which sees a fast move lower down through 4271.25 and slides down to 4254.25.

These levels are highlighted on the following volume profile chart:

Volume has officially fallen off a cliff. Stocks are pressing into the shorts in proper anticipation of a Santa Claus rally and I am third degree slap happy from a 3:30am airport drive.

May your Christmas be nourishing and spent in the company of others like you, and may Santa bring you a basket of fine cheese and wines. But don’t hold on too tight, be a giver. Give with no expectations or strings.

After thoroughly beating up my twitter followers, facebook friends, and group text messages off this slap happy mode I am currently in, it is time for Raul to turn in and start celebrating the holiday.

I love you all; a special shout out to all the pears, and may you find prosperity in trading with the grace of Santo Claus.

This German gent is referring to $IBB, but he calls it ‘Jennifer’ –

Party favors were all set out nicely, but things are starting to stink.

Volumes have officially dried up in the Nasdaq exchange. The overnight session traded sub 8000 contracts ahead of the 8:30am Durable Goods and GPD stats. The Christmas holiday is fast approaching. Session range was compressed to the low end of normal as well, ranging just a few ticks below 1^st sigma and expanded a bit after 8:30am to become normal.

You really don’t want to force trades in this environment. It’s thin, primarily algorithmic participation.

Autopilot comes to mind.

However, if you are here, so am I and with the exact same intent.

Prices are high overnight after two primary up waves (9.25 and 12.5 points) pushed through the market. As we come into US trade prices are up in the upper quad of the globex range.

At 9:55am we have U of M Confidence numbers then at 10am we have Personal Consumption and New Home sales. The 10 o’clock hour also features the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.

Given the amount of economic news set for release at 10am, I am expecting a choppy, 2-way open.

Primary expectation is for us to chop about inside yesterday’s range before deciding on direction up to target Friday high 4304.50 then the MCHVN at 4307.50. There is also a naked VPOC up at 4313.50 which might attract prices. Then a weak high at 4315.50.

Hypo 2 is a drive higher to target the open gap up at 4333

Hypo 3 is an open rejection reversal where we attempt higher, find a strong responsive seller who rejects us back into yesterday’s value (4296-4290.75) and continues to test lower levels.

I have highlighted the levels I will be observing on the following chart:

Seldom do I find myself positioned more than 100% long because, well, I like to have some maneuvering money and margin calls go against my general avoidance of confrontation.

However, sometimes, one must confront the brutal facts and take the penultimate step toward winship. This duty is not to be taken lightly. You are now using someone else’s money. In this case, the someone else is an edgy money dealer who won’t hesitate to stab your backside.

I started my day like any other day, waking well in advance of the sun (big ups to the Winter solstice) and taking a shower in pitch black. If you are fortunate enough to have a shower in the interior of your home, one free of windows, you should practice pitch black showers as they will build channels in your brain. Trust yourself to know where everything resides in the shower stall, after all, you use it at least once a day (I hope).

Next I prepare a nourishing breakfast. No less than an entire can of beans, an over sized bowl of spinach, and 5 whole eggs. This feast is brought to my desk via a novelty tray.

I consume said fat and protein while catching up with the overnight news, marking price levels on my charts, and occasionally enjoying some leisure industry reads.

After penning my ideas for the morning via the iBankCoin blog I shut everything down and listen to myself breath for a while. There is no duration to ‘for a while’ it really depends on how long it takes me to settle down.

Then the market opens. At this point one should always keep their portfolio shrouded in mystery, its PnL is a distraction. Instead I vehemently observe the opening auction and grind out a few 15-20 trades, effectively providing liquidity to the marketplace at a modest price.

Then I go to my source for all matters trading, The Pelicans, and see what they’re onto for the day. At this point I will open my stock and option book. I look for big anomalies in case I have overlooked something on the charts, then I close the book back down.

At this point I make some gourmet coffee. First I grind the beans. I take a moment to closely examine the oil on the bean and its shape then grind them methodically into dust. Next I open the grinder and take a large inhale of the bouquet the beans release, truly a special part of my day. They are slowly brewed via French press and usually accompanied by some grapefruit juice, coconut grease, and perhaps a few slices of prosciutto.

Now, high off of the only drug I use, I take to twitter and tell jokes. Most receive little-to-no feedback but I’m high, so fuck it.

As we round out the lunch hour I close my trading books and decide on a lunch. I purposely choose something several miles away because the sun is shining. On my way I stop and talk to the Italians, then the Arabs, then finally procure my Mexican food.

This food is consumed slowly. Chicken, shrimp, and steak fajita mix with no poison shells or chips but an extra side of authentic refried beans and guacamole. I will drink this heavy meal down with kombucha tea to aid digestion.

As the market closes I closely watch where all my positions are trading and pen a blog. If I need an extra kick to get over the finish line then I will have a shot of unfiltered apple cider vinegar.

No adjustments are needed today. My bed is made. The cookies are out and now I must consider vigorous exercise to keep my otherwise sedentary body nimble.

Top pick is TWTR, especially if they fire Dick Costello, FTW.