Today is the kind of day where I simply do not have much nice to say, so I opt to communicate very little.  The cordiality and couth I stockpiled for months was most entirely used up on distant relatives and my derelict friend set.  I applied many of The Fly’s etiquette tips to my festivities and things went swimmingly.

I spoke with an old and salty GM engineer for quite some time about the prospects of a certain Elon Musk and his stunning Model S.  He dismissed the brand repeatedly stating they will never go beyond niche manufacturer and that their cars are only a toy for the jet class.

He had his points.  He loves the Volt but could not justify the lofty insurance premium it carried.  The same goes for the Model S, except the niche factor ratches premiums up further.  One can service their combustion powered vehicle at 20 places inside a five mile radius.  The Tesla lacks 100 years of servicing infrastructure (mechanics).  He pointed to the $60,000 Corvette Stingray and boldly claimed it had more technology in place than the Model S.  Finally, he is convinced Toyota and their fuel cell technology will be rolled out, en masse, thus completely cementing the geniuses who mass produce automobies leaving TSLA to only service the upper scraps, the golden giblets if you will, forever.

This dilemma rings right through to LED, where an old industry is being disrupted by new technology and young leaders firing sniper bullets at strategic targets from their bird nests.  How I see it, eating an elephant is a large task, but if you focus on taking one bite at a time you get it done.  A strange man named Michel Lotito once ate an entire airplane.  I suppose I side with the strange and against all odds crowd.  I am sure Steve Job’s silly iPod was destined to fail too.  1000 songs in your pocket does not stand a chance against the brilliant minds at Sony, right?

Will the masters of industry in lighting and auto making be disrupted by TSLA and CREE?  Or will TM mass produce a car you fill up with gasoline which it uses to power a fuel cell that powers your transportation and your home filled with PHG bulbs?

I supposed that’s the thought I will be pondering over the weekend.  I would love to hear your thoughts.

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We’ve had good fun poking the stupidity of Morgan Stanley in their downgrade of AMBA this month. We banked some nice coin along the way.  The recent leg up in our aging index rally has been mostly to the benefit of old men and their mega cap stocks.  The snoozers, if you will.  We participated where appropriate, riding LO and PPC, but to be honest I could have held less crack rock and more bourbon and cigars, the preferred vice of old men.

But today we saw the speculative juices begin to sizzle.  Today we had WUBA pulling out the tits, Emily Ratajkowski style.  Today was for the brazen and the bold, with social media saying, “not.just.yet my friend.”  So my portfolio finally caught a decent boost.

I think there is more in store and I implore iBankCoin readers to get in line at the feeders: names like GRPN, Z, FB, TWTR, and TRIP.  Pay special attention to TRIP as it appears poised to rip.

I am 95% long and low on cash.  I had to sell PPC today to buy Zillow.  I have so much money tied up in LEDs right now and they are not doing a thing, except for bleeding me modestly.  This industry is ice cold, yet I love it.  What is an intermediate term speculator to do?

We caught the Apple breakout yesterday via 12631 service.

Top picks into the turkey: GOGO, YELP, and Z.

I have huge positions in CREE and BALT, yet I do not mention them as top picks.  Hmm…they need to DO SOMETHING.

PS I pretty much spoon fed this NASDAQ rally to you this morning

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If you assume I just wing this stuff and get lucky in an easy market think again:

Think slow, move fast

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It turns out the NASDAQ printed what is called a normal day in market profile theory and the fun thing about normal days is they are anything but.  In fact, they are rather rare.

And I must say I do not particularly like normal days, at least not up here at swing highs, because they tend to occur at or near inflection points.  A normal day is described as having a very wide initial balance (first hour of trade) which is not breached for the remainder of the session.  It suggests indecision, intraday, mostly signaling directional conviction is low.

That context makes sense if think about gapping higher, in a hot (too hot?) bull trend, into a short holiday week.  Short sellers do not want to get steamrolled in the thin trade, buyers are hesitant to initiate additional exposure at these elevated levels, and current longs are likely mulling taking profits.

Add to that the narrow pockets of market momentum and you have a solid recipe for indecision.

I have my book about 90% long at this indecisive juncture.  AMBA finally went to work, crushing the hopes and dreams of Morgan Stanley analysis hoping to make a name in the technology space.  I like to think this guy who downgraded AMBA will read the Raul blog, so I have a special message for him: this chipset powers the GoPro, it is on the X-mas list of every adventurer.  Short interest, albeit modest, will start to get icy hands as we approach December 5^th earnings.  Then they will start making mistakes.

The chicken trade adhered to the November seasonality statistics, naturally, unlike the unnatural meat produced in PPCs new streamlined robot facilities.  December brings a tad bit more seasonality mojo, and we still have national eat 1-to-3-birds-at-once day Thursday.  I took an obligatory 1/3 scale today, but I like my prospects with the net.

I bought AAPL back right near the closing bell.  If you recall, I was in this trade a few weeks back and bailed with a little 2 percent gain.  It is an easy vehicle for me to lever long exposure up and down, as it consolidates along gently.

I now hold large positions in the following names, listed largest-to-smallest:

GOGO, RVLT, BALT, YELP, and CREE

These are all full size positions.  As you may imagine, this type of book requires attentiveness.  It has the capability of lopping 10% off my person rather effortlessly.

My ¾ size positions are as follows, listed again largest-to-smallest:

AMBA, AAPL, PPC, LO, and TSLA

Note: AMBA was by far my largest position prior to taking a scale near today’s high.  Tesla and their innovative CEO Elon Musk are in the house of pain.  Much like any successful individual, the media will frame Elon with a skeptical eye.  Innovators hunt profit and self-gain after all, which is inherently evil.  The issue most closely watched at TSLA is the battery technology.  If it is to usher in the era of zero emission commuting, it needs to hold up to rigorous scrutiny.  If Telsa intends to roll out a model for the middle class, they need sound battery technology established.  The chart is just basing out, below my favorite moving averages, suggesting acceptance of these lower prices.  What likely comes next is a new exploration lower by price.  This will scare most of you.  But I will be casually observing the action, minding the drawdown to my books, and meticulously selecting an opportunity to ratchet up exposure because I love me some sweet baby Elon.

I have dog and pony positions in the following stocks.  These positions are practically placeholders and some are relics from prior trades:

F, FXY, ONVO, TWTR, MJNA, and O

I thought I would turn a clever trick in MJNA.  Now I am -40% on this stupid, STUPID, holding.  It will enjoy a fake pump service or go to zero otherwise I will continue to hold this dumbness.

ONVO needs to die for a while.  It trades poorly.  I will keep my toe in the water to keep my eyes on the name.

TWTR is another name I will hold until zero.  I use twitter more than any other social media service in the world, why wouldn’t I own it?  One day I will have huge size, but right now there simply is not much to base my risk on.  Therefore I wait.

This post has gone on far too long.  These are my holdings and some reasoning behind them.  Let’s see how they perform this week.

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This is your monthly reminder that institutions want your best Wall Street shares.  The stock market is like a massive game of Monopoly and some of the finest properties include social media stocks.

You bought their hype and they know it.  Now they are pressing their knee into your back while you lay face down on the cold concrete.  You have just been polar bear’ed by Morgan Stanley banksters.

I am merely an opportunist.  Their actions disgust me no doubt, but I simply ride the tidal currents.  After spending several days in Chicago using YELP to find many wonderful meals and mixology labs, I greet today’s blood bath with a warm embrace.  I am the hobo, pretending to pray on the street corner, in an earnest attempt to snatch your purse.

Morgan Stanley is the reckless teen, cold cocking you from behind.

Who is the villain here?

I bought a bunch of YELP this morning.

I bought some BALT too.

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“I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed.” – Elder Raul

I knew ONVO had gone too far.  That was part of the reason my position was scaled down to runner size.  But did I expect the moronic momentum crowd to panic?  No, but I should know better.

People overreact…to everything.  I have always despised this characteristic.  For a long time this resulted in anger—anger which peaked daily during my commute across town.  My soul belongs on European roadways where a clear expectation is in place to pass and get over.  Instead I reside in a metropolis of underfunded civil projects, crawling on my belly across roadways designed by engineering misfits, and nobody cares about highway etiquette.

Everyone overreacts when they drive.  I suppose that is the point I am failing to make here.  Same goes for ONVO traders, they overreacted—both ways—like idiots.  You have to spot the dimwits of the world and avoid them entirely.  I will hold my ONVO runner, back to cost basis, $5.75, and patiently wait for all of these imbeciles to clear the roadway before committing more capital.

The chicken trade is alive and well.  PPC waited until there were no farmers on the horizon, and crossed the road.  My second largest position has been unscathed through this most recent terror.

You cannot tell me you like the AMBA daily chart.  It is not that I think my trade is wrong, but rather that we are seeing what could potentially be a nasty false breakout which may preclude a fast breakdown.  I have my guard up.  My largest position is precariously toeing a narrow line.

Walter is coming in close to my risk levels here.  I am eyeball-to-eyeball with the man in the black pajamas.  My third largest position has resorted to trench-style positioning.  Buyers need to dig in here or their ranks will be overrun.

BALT has a weekly chart like I have not seen in months.  It is brilliant and I would make plans to board this boat if I was not already properly stowed in a cozy stateroom.  I only have ½ size here.  Remember when I ripped 10% out of this name a few weeks back?  I am waiting to size back on.  It needs to inspire me, like Elon.

TSLA was up but I am not overwhelmed with gay pride.  We saw sound CEO 2.0 action yesterday and today with Elon Musk blasting out an updated warranty and flexing his technological muscles via an over-the-air update to all his cars.  No big deal.  You homos are in the presence of greatness with this product and you are not showing the respect that is due.  I still want more shares.  I wonder if I can use some $BCOIN to hire an economic hit man off the tor network?  Because truth be told, I would forego eating for a week to procure some sub $100 TSLA shares.

Everything else is a nonevent until it is.  Avoid the noise, stay laser focused on the signal.

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Month:  November

Day(s) of Terror: 1 2

If you find yourself staring down the barrel of an anti-momentum ray gun, with losses being sprayed all over you face and chin, fret not oh wet one.  Every honest speculator who graduated from QE University knows you get TWO DAYS MINIMUM of sheer terror per month.

They keep you H honest.

As you can imagine, my book is down today, 3% to be precise.  The reasons are multipronged, from the dick handlers at Morgan Stanley to the collective short sellers, the royal short seller if you will, to the news which came from Mr. Icahn while I was eating a late day taco.

Funny little bit of commentary really, I was short the NASDAQ futures for over two hours today, from noon to like 2:30pm, with my fingers sore from hovering inches above the hotkey to close my position.  It was a scalp gone terribly awry.  I kept my focus and was able to ride through some noise to get some profit on the trade.  I closed it perhaps 5 minutes before the whole shit house went up in flames.  Instead of riding my steed to glory I was soliciting street meat.  Truth be told I would never hold through that entire move lower but I certainly could have extracted a few hundred more pesos.

GOGO caught a downgrade from Redcoat Simon Flannery today and went spiraling lower.  It was only a matter of time, in days, before either a British air raid or any other hit piece sent GOGO lower.  If you bought shares of GOGO the minute they gapped up post earnings, you are still up a cool 11% right now.  I commend you for flying in my ranks.  Let me sum this up so we can move on—Paul Revere was not around to warn us about the British coming.  Flannery has been covering telecom for over 20 years.  He is old and will be in the diaper long before me.  Morgan Stanley downgrading AMBA was an opportunity to buy.  So is this.

I closed SFM, AAPL, and YGE.  I only like one of those companies beyond a trading vehicle.  This lifted cash a tad over 20% to allow me entry into better pictures.

I bought more WLT, this is the look I like right here.  This is now my third largest position, behind AMBA and PPC.  The chicken don is still poised to ARISE.

Finally let us discuss TSLA.  It is coming in on me and I am thrilled.  May it rally to bring in some dumb money and then fail hard into year-end.  Then zombie chart.  Then you will all turn your gay commentary to another CEO so I can have Elon all to myself.  That’s when I go full size.  Until then, or upon further notice, I am patiently waiting to add more exposure.  We have to kill off the hot money studs.

Today was my day to make money actively and I didn’t.  Now I have to just sit here and brood.  I call it getting my Ryan Gosling on.

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Today the old man woke up at a customary 4am, sans alarm clock, and slowly rose from his twin-size bed positioned appropriately across the room from his wife.  He prepared his straight razor with smooth swipes across the grit of his sharpening belt.  His thin lips held onto a cigarette as he removed any trace of facial hair with a generation of confidence.  He swung the washroom door open and emerged from a thick cloud of smoke in a Tom Ford suit and said, “I want Cisco.”

And so went the day.  Old men across the nation dialed their rotary phones and demanded their brokers buy shares of CSCO, in 1000 lot increments, until instructed to stop.  The action firmed up the Dow Jones as well as the S&P 500.

We are only 10 points away from the 1800 market on the SPX and I am 95% long.  There was a mix of winners on the day.  The peddlers sold down GOGO today after an impressive gap which is to be expected from the degenerate class.  Meanwhile ONVO ripped the hearts out of shorts and fed them to the pigs.

The chicken play in PPC is setting up finally, and if we close the week out strong prospects look solid for a rise into the gluttonous festivities of Thanksgiving.

Facebook wants needs to corner the sexting market.  Without it, they are vulnerable to rapid extinction due to lack of attracting teenage use.  On the contrary, teenagers are smoking LO’s Blu brand eCigarettes at a growing rate.  LO is winning over the next generation of smoking class.

I am completely out of energy, here’s my book:

AMBA, PPC, AAPL, GOGO, RVLT, TSLA, LO, YGE, WLT, SFM, BALT, CREE, F, ONVO, FXY, TWTR, MJNA, and O

Many of those are partials.  The main size is from AMBA-to-WALT

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I may have come into the day with a vision for lower prices, but all it took was a keen observation of the opening type to realign my mind to expect higher prices.  Buyers drove higher from the opening bell, aggressively recapturing yesterday’s low, then its value area, then the gap, then the high, and finally ripped apart any semblance of justifying swing shorts.

This move came from deep in the pits of bear land, where they had finally gained some footing.  There were traders much more established than yours truly, managing mountains of assets, who were intelligently positioned short into today.  THEY.GOT.STEAMROLLED. The action was unforgiving, offering little by the way of rotation lower.  I was away from my desk for most of the morning, which was okay, because my book was 95% long, like a surfer firmly positioned in the pipeline of a rogue wave smashing through shorts’ houses.

GOGO diesel you BEAST!  This must have been what it was like to trade in the early dot com days, where solid story stocks ripped the tits.  I was pounding the table to load the boat when GOGO gapped up after earnings.  This stock has made me more pesos than any other trade this year, yet I only scaled a pittance, a mere 1/5 of my position.  It was a sacrifice to the stock gods for their generosity.

Why not book more GOGO shares into this strength?

GOGO may be a hot ticker in the hallowed halls of iBankCoin and perhaps among the savvier twitter traders, but the general population is still well in the dark.  The story is easy to understand, the audience is captive, and the stock is waking up.  iBankCoin spoon fed the plebian audience a jumbo here.  Tell your friends, the worthy ones only of course.

The chicken trade started working today, with PPC making a strong move.  The reality is, almost everything is up today, and any long looks clever.  But this is my chicken trade, and it will arise.

I heard this commentary a few times today.  It went something like, “anyone can look like a genius in this market” and that simply infuriated me.  Does the gung-ho Apple bull look like a genius?  Do the conservative, risk-averse, underinvested PMs look like geniuses?  Does Keith Sweat, rocking a 5 dong, 5 skort book look like a genius?  Do the metal bulls?  HUH?!  DO THEY?!  Haters.

THE FOLKS AT IBANKCOIN LOOK LIKE GENIUSES…all of us, even us minions.  You should see the moves being made in 12631.  These folks are finding setups and executing.  A good lot of PPT members crushed the ONVO move.  #WEAREGENIUSES

There’s a lot of fire talk around TSLA and the entire situation stinks of desperation.  Obviously a major fire would be cause for concern in any operation’s core facility.  But the media is being greased to hype this shit up, I love it.  My Friday buys are still green.  I have dry powder to buy lower, and I simply cannot lose with Elon Musk on my team.  Only the government can fuck me, much like every facet of life.

If you are making solid gains right now do not discount your progress as luck or participating in an easy market.  You have done well.  You are picking stocks, perhaps chart setups, that you can tie risk into and you are executing.  I applaud all of you.  If you simply managed to refrain from shorting today you win.

Funny, I had one trade in the futures today, shorting the /NQ around 9:40am.  We were butting up against yesterday’s value area high and I [kind of] had a signal to short.  I took my position, took some heat, and doubled down per my pre-conceived plan.  At this point I have 5 contracts on and I am looking to scratch out four of them for break even.  I get the break even scratch then I book the final piece for a scratch also, after trying to get cute.  In short, I got out of the way in a very lucky manner.  That same trade could have gone max pain and stopped me out on five contracts.  It hasn’t happened in a long time, but the risk is always there.  This trade was all I needed to stay long in my port because I could feel the fear shorts had.  I scaled my little GOGO piece and piled all the earnings and more into YGE.  The rest is history as they say.

I have gone on way too long…victory lap complete.  Eat well tonight, make love to your wife, for tomorrow we continue the fight.

THANK YOU PPT

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I only kid, there may actually be a fire at the $TSLA plant.

 

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