The overnight session has so far done very little except drift a bit higher and shows balance.  As we continue to trade above this key support, it becomes increasingly important that price make a decision, whether to go higher or lower.  The migration and acceptance of value will build some clues.

Yesterday’s profile reflects an opening drive lower by the sellers which had follow through.  Then, what resembles a steady accumulation occurred, closing us out near the high of the day.

Early on, I’m curious to see if sellers can push us back into yesterday’s value from 1634 -1625 and if so, how the market behaves.

It still looks like we could run higher to 1640 then 1641.75 and ultimately 1646.50 to see if it brings the same selling tenacity into the market as we saw last week.

Here’s the levels I’ll be watching:

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It’s a beautiful June morning where the birds serve as the best alarm clock in town.

My plan going into today is simple, which in essence, is elegant.  I have very little expectation, but I want to see how high we run up the single prints of the LANDSLIDE.

The overnight session has been consolidation with a bullish hue since trade opened Sunday evening.  I came to my desk for the open because I wasn’t sure if the market would run the zipper while everyone was enjoying their Bible studies or what.  It started to make its move and continues to as I type.

The primary objective would be retesting 1640 where all hell broke loose Friday afternoon.  We’re already halfway there.

I’m not certain where this market is going to open up at because it’s moving rather rapid for the early birds, so I’ll simple define my levels of interest and trade accordingly.

Notice: I’ve split the change in conditions out of Friday’s profile which gives us additional insight into key price levels.

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Are you man enough to take it?

There’s a cloud of electricity around Sir Raul this morning as I trade with near impunity.  It may just be these storms rolling through the D, turning the entire landscape to a shade of green that can only best be described as ELECTRIC.

Big, big day thus far.  Let’s run down the moves:

10 trades in the ES, 10 winners.  Flawless victory.

Sold 1/3 NBG at the open + 20 percent.  My ancestors are treating me right.  I’m a decedent of ZEUS.

Sold my NFLX lotto ticket at AM swing high, made a G.

Bought more SNDK lotto tickets, let it ride.

I closed out my RVLT.  I never love this name and wanted my 5 percent gain.  It could still go.

I bought ACHN from fly’s homeless post last night.

I bought SNE.

Let me elaborate on SNE.  It has a bearish-slanted head and shoulders pattern.  Very bearish.  The NIEKKEI had a tough week.  I think they’re going to drop the hammer on shorts.  How dare they question their economic experiment!  Japan doesn’t play pimp.  This is my rebound play to get involved with the action.

I like my China names going into a weekend of Chinese PMI data.  They’ll look to get global attention this week, I feel.  I’m long DANG and HMIN.

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Very weak session overnight which didn’t start to stabilize until early this morning USA time.  So far the low of the globex session was put in at the value area low from Wednesday, and this will be our key reference level today.  How we treat a very possible retest of this price will be telling as we head into the weekend and June.

I have one level marked below this zone as an effective last line of defense for the bulls.

Above we have important reference points for upside power.  The first thing the bulls need to accomplish is pushing us back out of this large value area.  This will be no easy task but is certainly possible, especially if the gap trade gets momentum.

I’ll reserve any bias, and let the price action tell the story.  As of right now, we’re weak, but stabilizing.  If we head south of 1644 again a retest of the lows seems likely.

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We’re seeing some early morning strength but keep in mind we have a busy economic calendar this morning.  The character of this market could change in an instant.  Fortunately for us, we have the lovely market profiles to guide the way.

I’m more than a little thrilled to be back in my old school profiles.  Merging Thursday and Friday sessions together is what gave yesterday clear vision.  Look at the buyer reaction at the lows, it just so happened to perfectly coincide with the large distribution’s VAL.

Sometimes the profiles do all the morning work for me.  I’ve highlighted a few levels I’ll be watching, and how we trade relative to them will guide my positioning.

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We just wrapped up another neutral day in the spooz.  It’s funny, these neutral days, sometimes referred to as normal days, are very rare.  Yet here I am, for the third time this month bringing one to your attention.

The trade is so telegraphed, it’s treated me well.  I didn’t take it today because I was pulled into a meeting, but damn listen up: when you get a wide range during the first hour of RTH, then there’s range extension in one direction (today lower) then dynamic price action takes us ALL THE WAY to the other side of the profile and we get range extension in the other direction, there’s a HIGH probability price will return to the mean before doing anything else.  Awesome and amazing, yes yes yes?

Anyhow this type of session often precludes turning points in the market.  Hopefully, the turn is to the higher because I tossed on a bunch of risk into the bell.

I sold my AWK investment today.  It felt odd, I’ve held it for a very long time.  I feel without it, if you know what I mean.  But I’ve made so much in the name, it has come so far, and Yields Are Under Attack.  I booked it.  Remember, I swear no allegiance.

This put a ton of cash on the books and all the sudden I was almost 50 percent cash.  Down here!?  It was too much to bear <sic>.

I went shopping.

I bought DDD this morning, and then I bought more in the afternoon.  I don’t like this stock very much yet.  It has all the makings of a bull trap, if you ask me.  Why am I long then?  If it opens higher it will rip heads off.

I added to my RGLD long.  Sometimes, when you feel like taking profits, that’s the best time to buy more.

I bought RVLT.  It spiked hard.  RaginCajun highlighted it very quickly, I just clicked the button.  The stock is on my “always stalking” list.  I trimmed a bit of bread off to place on my table into the closing bell.

I added to my SNDK weekly options, $57.50 strike.  This stock, like DDD, is tricky in that it didn’t quite signal.  I would have liked to see yesterday’s high taken out.  Hand grenades and horseshoes I suppose.

I’ll either feel very smart, or very busy tomorrow morning—trading my way out of the paper bag I built.  Something about making money in these markets makes me want more. Patience.

I cut cash down to 25 percent.

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Well, it’s really more of a chop low, set last week and rejected over the weekend only to find us properly testing it this morning. How the market navigates this big, balanced distribution will be very important.

Overnight the S&P made its way lower without much resistance from the buyers.  We’re currently 15 handles off the high and seeing some very weak conditions.  The action has taken us back down to our Wednesday/Thursday distribution and rotated most of the way through it.

Whether the market can pause in the range I’m about to highlight or price cuts right through will be my cue in positioning.

 

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There was a nasty selloff in TLT but you can read “The Fly” to get a better interpretation.

RGLD and miners as a whole continue to be a beaten down sector.  Optimism in the space fades to indecision and back again on an hourly basis.  Such is the case when you’re tra la la-ing across the bottom.  It’s scary, especially if you’re a political investor.

We had a huge range today in the S&P.  That meant only one thing, opportunities.  I continued trading the mini contract all session, mostly to the short side and then long again approaching the final half hour.  It was by far my best performance in the index yet.  All hail the memorial weekend!

After taking some paper trades in the AAPL weeklies over the weekend and seeing what type of beast it really is, I’ve dabbled in a very small way by purchasing some SNDK May week 5’s on the $57.50 strike.  They’re really cheap, and it makes sense to risk the entire amount, essentially.  Feel free to throw rotten tomatoes at my virgin attempt using options, I normally trade common.  I’m a trial-by-fire learner so after I understood the risk, why not?

Other stock action included selling NXST.  Fly popped into 12631 and sold a few low conviction names.  If you read my reasoning behind NXST you could easily conclude my conviction level was low low low.  Sold for a small scratch loss.

I also bought some NANO today.  Nano technology is one of those things that promises so very much, like a politician.  I did a PPT dig on all company profiles featuring “nano” and simply put I settled on NANO and UTEK.

I’ll be back around, same time same place, to gather some insight into the markets with these profiles in the morning.

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There’s some follow through so far on this move lower and the bears seem to be having a little fun.  Perhaps we’re setting up for the Sell in June, Pop the Cocaine Balloon trade.  Perhaps this is just another buying opportunity.  You know my style, I wait for the big hands to stabilize things then I hop on.

I brought those $ES_F single prints to your attention earlier.  They were in fact slippery and we ripped right down them.

If the Paul Bunyan hands don’t show up soon, I may cut a couple of my laggards.

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We’ve had several instances of overlapping profile development recently, and it made me miss my old school market profiles.  So I’m bringing them back, yes yes, very exciting.

Thursday featured a large gap lower that was steady accumulated all session only to be followed by Friday’s holiday tape which also gapped lower and was accumulated all day.  Friday’s profile was contained entirely inside Thursday’s which is aka an inside reversal pattern.

I wanted to merge the two profiles into one after seeing their volume characteristics.  Once I’ve done so, I get a clear picture of the auction that took place at these prices, and the relevant levels to monitor.

I also split the big selloff into the early distribution and the change.

I’ll be monitoring the following levels as we open up this morning:

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