2016 is upon us and you have, all of you have an opportunity to start fresh. The market put a bow on year-end with a nice pin-jerk lower Thursday afternoon, but that is old news, 2015 news. Here are four things you need to watch this upcoming week:
The NASDAQ Transportation index. Oil volatility is noisy. Instead, keep an eye on the potential failed auction in NAS Transports. It will not take much to determine if this long trade is still in-tact. Bulls have the edge here unless the index closes below 3300 on a daily basis.
Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. Do not be a Fed watcher. Instead observe something more objective like how the market reacts to major events. At 2pm Wednesday the Fed releases minuets from the December 15-16 FOMC Meeting. That was a big one; the one where they ultimately decided to enact interest rate liftoff. Do a third reaction analysis to forecast market direction into the second half of the week.
Relative strength in Utilities. This has been the quiet undercurrent of sector rotations these last two weeks. Keep an eye out for continued leadership from this risk averse sector and consider it a caution flag if it continues.
Friday morning’s Non-Farm Payroll data. This is the river card on the week. The same strategy best used for FOMC applies here, third reaction analysis. I have no idea if a strong read is bullish or vice-versa. Just keep an eye on how the market reacts to the news.
Everyone wants to start the year strong, keep that in mind. There is nothing wrong with some early year ambition, but don’t let it tint your lenses. Remain objective, do not let your perceptions be swayed by others, and will yourself into accepting the outcomes of your trades and the chosen behavior of the market. Above I laid out four objective guideposts you can use during the week. USE THEM.
Exodus members, the latest Strategy Session has been posted. Check it out!
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
So regarding the transports, the lower they go, the less attractive they are?! AND… There’s a line in the sand?! Lolz
Price level I’m watching for short term long bias on Transports is 33 hundo.
Below there the FA long bias is off the table.