Turbulance

We’re heading into some turbulence this week, with the S&P futures gapping down over ten handles.  The overnight session saw price over 20 handles lower before buyers stepped in and stabilized price.  Since around 2:30am (near the European open) we have seen the price of the index rebound 10 handles.

My profile is looking haggard because the contract data did not roll properly from March, so it may be a few sessions before it’s all cleaned up.  However, I do see 1544.75 as a key level for bulls to recapture if they intend to assert control of the tape.  Otherwise, I expect to see consolidation type trading where we recheck some past levels for significance (see if they become support).

This company’s components are showing up in a variety of new products including a badass new basketball that helps kids get their game up.

There hanging around inside Apple products too.  That’s the backstory that had me stalking, then I finally got a decent spot to enter my long, check it out:

Note, we are now tracking the June contract.

It really is odd how only missing four days of market action and a weekend of study has me feeling weak handed.  It’s no surprise most of the best never take vacations and are a constant fixture on the internet.  So much happens in a minute.

Many incorporate a systematic approach to trading which allows for the monitoring of multiple markets and timeframes.  Most of trade location and setup can be mechanical, but entry and exit are what can be more of an art.

I think I could travel freely so long as I have a reliable connection and travel during non-market hours.  I like having reliable infrastructure so the plan is to keep within the boundaries of it while the market is open.

So now the important task is getting back into my stride.  I have some charts I’m liking and I’m glad that I got very small on VHC before vacation.  Had I left my stop in place I would have been out already, however, it wasn’t much better of a pricing then where we landed today.  I’m not caring too much about this.  It needs to be cut but I got distracted talking to a coworker as the market closed.  Excuses, Excuses, it needs to be cut.

The real ace-in-the hole I have for getting caught up this weekend is ChessNwine’s Weekly Strategy Session.  Believe me, this post is entirely without incentive.  When it comes to premium products I keep the purse strings tight.  I got a taste for the strategy session while I was interim blogger and I can say without doubt that it gets you where you need to be.

Plus, once I’m plugged back into the market I don’t necessarily need another strategy session. Chess understands this, and offers a onetime pricing option. Bravo good sir, I’ll take one, perhaps two or three.

I’ll be working on damage control tomorrow but I’ll be back full swing come Monday.  Vai con dios amigos.

Today I’ve felt completely out of sorts.  The markets are levitating above their highs, yet I’ve only mustered the courage to buy more CMG.  Everything else, I’ve only stared at.  I keep checking in on BBY aka Best Buy.  This was my top pick going into the Super Bowl yet I sold it for a small loss.  It’s been non-stop ripping ever since.

For a while today was just another episode of Raul’s portfolio makes new highs then VHC died.  I have a tiny VHC position, I’m about to not have said position.  Holy binary outcome, yes yes?  The devastation of the name is enough to drop my portfolio by 30 basis points so I’m not exactly putting my head through sheet rock over here.  Nevertheless, I am dissatisfied to be knocked clean off my high watermark.

I don’t want to short the indices because I have no signal telling me to do so, yet I’m not confident in many of my longs.  Not even CREE.  I’m sitting on several 20 percent gainers here and a huge cash pile and I feel like a stick in the mud.  It could be this head cold I developed upon returning to the arctic north, or it could be I don’t have twitter running, or it really could be a hangover from being fired from iBC.  I need to find some motivation.

I really don’t want a huge cash level, but it seems like the only option as my brain is currently on sabbatical.

“Make things as simple as possible but no simpler” – Albert Einstein

I know some of you don’t like posts about individual setups and I kindly invite you to take your reading elsewhere.  However, if banking coin is your top priority, more so than amusement, I suggest you add Chipotle to your watchlist this evening for potential long trades tomorrow.

Since I’ve just returned home and I’m in the sharing is caring mode I want to explain exactly how to trade this setup.  Young guys, listen up because you won’t get much advice like this for free on the internet.

A tight moving average like the 9ema (or 10 sma, 13 ema, etc.) is excellent to key off of because it’s close to the price action.  To get even closer, look at the open, high, low, close of the previous two sessions using daily candles.  With this information we have enough data to cue off of for a trade.

In the case of the CMG play, we like how price has behaved recently, check it out:

I’m already long this name, and took some profits before heading on vacation.  Now that it has pulled back in a reasonable manner, I’m ready to get back to full size in the name.  I want to see exactly the following occur to get me to buy more:

Take out Tuesday’s high

That’s it!  If it sounds simple, that’s because it is simple to trade.  Our first profit target is the most recent peak around $335.  If we approach those levels, closely monitor intraday action and find a good price to scale out.  Then keep a piece on in case the momentum picks up and the trade gets legs, the crème if you will.

Your risk is down to $314 so you’re risking $9 to make $12 on a setup with around a 68% win rate.  Believe me, the numbers work in your favor.  Just trade it well.

Whilst I was away Zynga popped and faded on news that Yahoo was looking to acquire engineers via  an acquisition.  If you bought that news and are now underwater get ready to be squeezed into liquidation.  If you’re new to ZNGA I would like to welcome you to the cocaine train.  Be prepared for spikes of euphoria followed by long stretches of pessimistic stomach churning.  You may find yourself irritable during this stretch, likely because you’re long more shares than should be.

Let me explain something to you: there’s a big head and shoulders forming on the daily chart of Facebook.  This can affect all social shares because Facebook is the goblin and these other companies are mere goons.  What’s a goon to a goblin?  Absolutely nothing.

Play Zynga for online poker and nothing more.  If you’re oversized this degenerate, cocaine addled name, seek help.

As of this writing ZNGA is a 5% position.

Right now is one of those times where looking back at everything accomplished in five days seems blurry and more dreamlike than reality.  After trekking through over 1000 miles of jungles, mountains, beaches, and cities I’m back at my desk staring out at the snowy landscape.  I feel somewhat out of sorts with the stock market.  After returning home at 3am this morning and catching a cat nap, I immediately went to my favorite deli and procured a prosciutto and cheese on a hard role.  Good deli meats are non-existent near the equator.

Once to my office I received the warm welcome of over 1000 emails.  This is something unique to the corporate world, robots mailing robots mostly.  I even consider many of the humans who send me 50+ emails a day to be robots.  I read about 10 emails and the rest were Shift+Deleted to their final resting place.  How much cover your ass (CYA) work is necessary when you do very little actual work?  I’m once again laser beam focused on my exit plan.

Normally I have a watch list primed up with hot stocks ready to rip.  Most of these names are poached from others.  I also have a few screeners in finviz saved and key sectors I’m watching.  Today all I have are my extended socials and LED stocks, tit ripping into the stratosphere.  I’m very tempted to liquidate and regroup.  I’ve been smashed to bits by March two years in a row.  Going into the midmonth with another 3% in gains has me very trigger happy.

With my personal enterprise, it’s interesting how little mistakes compile while I’m away.  However, it offers me an excellent opportunity to correct my minions.  If you don’t know how to correct your minions, you’re better off being a minion.  Behave accordingly.

It has been a day of pure intensity of the awesome variety today/yesterday where sleep has been traded for long night drives through jungle switchbacks and rocking up on a gnarly pacific beach.  I’ve been awake since Wednesday morning, and the thought of sleeping is still distant in consideration.

There sometimes comes a point where you look back at your body of work and where you currently are and realize you’re on the right track.  All the work we do as traders, internet addicts, and “professionals” pays heavy dividends when you’re calling a massive villa home base. I could go on about the amenities, but it’s sufficient to say the infinity pool is two-tiered with a swim-up bar.  The house follows suit making it one hell of a party atmosphere.

Earlier the internet was so-so but now it’s blazing DSL fast.  Interestingly, this seems very slow to me.  Then I remember that wretched 56k dial-up action.  We were so naïve in those days.  There’s a staff of three in the villa, including a strange man who shows up at sunset and sits out front.  We’re surrounded by other villas of the four-story variety and all have fortress like barriers that would make surviving a zombie apocalypse simple.  Think six inch spikes juxtaposed in voodoo patterns atop seven foot concrete walls.

They seem a bit much, but then perhaps there’s something you need to keep out on full moons?  Everyone I meet is happy and with good reason as they’re living in paradise.  I guess if left to their own device, hunger is hunger and these villas are sweet targets for pirating.  All the normal houses resemble tin can structures with just as much security.  But enough about that, the amenities and downtown are ace.

The market I can’t comment much on.  Without my finger directly on the pulse I seem to not have my feel for the rotations and hot spots.  ANGI ripped, but was faded.  It buoyed my portfolio into the green today.  The fade today in RGLD should tell you it’s a violent road ahead for the metal and miners.  To think they would just rip tits off of the Wednesday strength now seems questionable.  There’s a ton of work to do above.  The sharp rejection of the 9 ema would have me trigger ready tomorrow to sell.  But considering my jungle mentality, I’m giving the trade room.  Take out my stop, ga’head

I suppose that’s it.  Oh yes one last thing.  If we’re going to have a vote for the interim tabbed j-a-b, throw my name in the race.  If we end up not voting, all the same.  Like a hungry donkey, I will continue to forage for winning picks and bring them to you live, like a donkey.

http://youtu.be/qHxlzcAPbBE

For the last three years, I’ve been tethered rather tightly to the internet.  It’s been within pockets reach at the worst, and blown up large on two 24-inch Samsungs at best.  However, this afternoon Raul is embarking on a quest deep into the jungles of Central America.  I’ll only be down there for a week’s time, but I plan to be checking in only intermittingly while away.

The original plan was to go almost entirely to cash, and I’ve managed to raise my cash levels quite a bit these last few sessions.  The problem is this damn trend is a beast. There’s one other “problem” named helicopter Ben.  Check out his March POMO schedule:

With the trend in mind, and all this cash being rained on the market, going to cash now could mean missing out on a bucket-o-fun.  Therefore, instead of getting some crazy 80% cash level, I’m placing some good-until-cancel orders to stop out my positions.  They’re way out of the way, allowing for some drawdown if the stock gods see fit to take my coin.

Without further adieu, here is my entire book. Feel free to toss ham and mashed potatoes in ridicule of any losers I hold whilst I’m away.  The following are my positions, all longs, listed by size:

CREE
TPX
ZNGA
CCJ
CMG
ANGI
RH
AWK
Z
OESX
VHC

UPDATE: add RGLD to the list. I can’t let you guys have all the fun 😉

My cash level is 40%

I hope to find a reliable connection so I may access my VPN to get my profiles, but I’m not banking on it.  I also hope to bring the jungle to you, internet people, live, as I see fit.  Trade well friends.