Before we attempt liftoff today buyers will want to defend the following levels. If they don’t, I have my line in the sand for reducing exposure:
Monthly Archives: March 2013
So Many Missed Ideas
I get a certain type of perturbed when I miss a good opportunity. It’s 2013, shit’s cray. I’m calling a generational transformation right here, right now. There are things we don’t even know we want yet, that will be indispensable in three years’ time. In such a phase, if you don’t keep tight and on point, ideas simply drift by, like fat salmon drifting up stream. With such a flow of fish it’s only natural that a few slip by. Just know someone else is eating those delicious missed fish, living in the lap of luxury.
Things are going well, don’t get me wrong, but I missed two jumbos this month. I’d say it’s a good problem to have, too many ideas flowing. Being the opposite, following a template lifestyle of sorts, is certainly a drag. So I’m venting two big trades I missed.
BBY all month and TPX this week
BBY was a certain type of fail, where I just continued to fail. It was my Super Bowl pick. I do things, like my Super Bowl pick, or March Madness pick, mostly by looking at the charts. However, when I can incorporate an external, although often subject to extreme subjectivity, it makes the trade all the better. I overheard (read) that BBY had a funny commercial game day. I like funny; it’s the safe play for big time commercials. I bought January 31st, a decent entry, of the higher octane variety. I stopped out, and looking back that made sense. However, I let it linger on my watch list, and it gave two more entries, and I missed them. It’s been ripping.
TPX I have gotten so much of. I’ve been on that trade all.year.long. That is until missing today’s pump. I sold it a few days back citing a very flimsy formation of a notorious double hammer position. Truth is, I didn’t have much reason to sell, I found one, as Chess likes to say.
That’s all, just getting that off my chest. Onward and upward.
Comments »$YELP Enters the Hon3y Hole
Take this setup with a grain of salt, and keep your risk tight in consideration of how extended the indices are. However, Facebook is seeing some relief today, and there may be some revision to the mean in store for the name. If yes, that could bode well for the socials in general.
Full Disclosure: I’m already long.
Europe at it Again
Futures are 10 handles lower since the European market opened. Here are some important levels of interest today:
Lateral Moves
While Le Doctour has taken the market’s indecision as a cue to back off from his positioning, I have been aggressively churning my portfolio like a tap dancer in a minefield. Stocks are blowing up, and blowing down. Stock pickers are totally en vogue as money sloshes around in the market.
Today I sold my remaining shares of LEDS around 1.35 and a brief look back suggests I sold too early. That’s the problem with knowing a company is complete shit, you’re trigger happy on the gains. However, a 25 percent gain in two days is sufficient to keep bread on my table.
I bought ANGI back and it started ripping so I bought more. It’s a full position now, threatening to make all-time highs alongside our historic market.
I closed out RGLD in a passive manner. I placed a protective stop on the name ensuring I would earn 5 percent. It triggered and I went on my merry way. Plus the gold chart looks peak’ish.
Into the bell, @ragincajun dropped some breadcrumbs in the back ally, via the hybrid movers, and I curb-stomped two other bums to get my hands on the best pick, AIG. I’m long AIG now.
Finally it took every bit of discipline I have to not sell ZNGA. It’s been flirting with my stop all day. It’s been trading like a loser all week, but it hasn’t crossed my risk parameter yet. It’s simple ruffling my feathers in a most egregious manner. Let’s hope she doesn’t gap down on me. Come’own everyone, do some hoping for Raul.
Cheers,
Comments »Bias Levels
How we trade relative to the following sign posts will give me information regarding who is in control of the tape. Continuing to trade within this range signals consolidation/indecision, which is still a postive environment for individual setups.
There’s Always Tuesday
Price clawed its way back to value before closing out the cash session. There’s certainly indecision present. Here’s more shorthand on what happened:
Major new highs overnight
Large opening swing
Sellers assert tape dominance
Price craters through the entire Friday range
Intraday shorts start working
Shorts get faded
Price pushes back up to value
Value settles lower than Friday
Big outside bar is formed
There was no clear winner, but I don’t like this Yen strength. If it continues, we’re operating in a different environment than we’ve seen thus far this year. Lots of charts are extended, like today’s winner AWAY.
Don’t chase risk. Our job as traders, especially at this juncture, is to take as little risk as possible. Tighten up that risk. Get it tight, get it right.
Warm Regards,
Comments »Testing Strategy and Raising Cash
I’ve been busy this morning with the market. I began running my first algorithm live this morning. It seeks to define high probability entries for scaling the E-mini S&P contract. So far so good, it has triggered shorts only all morning. I’m turning it off now to dig into the data a build macros to chomp away at it.
I got a bit larger than I should have with LEDS into the bell Friday. The stock stalled out while I was trying to day trade it and I sailed into the weekend with a 10% position. Good lord. I spent the majority of the morning liquidating the position down to around a 3% position. I was able to earn an average sale price of $1.23. Suffice to say, target one achieved, and I have a runner on should the stock gods offer me some crème.
Then the market continued to deteriorate so I bought more ZNGA. Try to figure out that logic. It needs to firm up before the bell for me to have optimism in the name.
Finally, I sold out of YCS, AWAY, and DNKN. Loser, winner, loser.
Now I’m building a sizeable long in patience as they say. This is such a corny saying, but I see traders take pride in being patient while others are risking coin, so I’ll consider myself amongst good people.
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