Exodus Quant Strategy for Q1 Crushed Market — But Now It’s Time to Die

So many things happening today. Let me start with the easy stuff for those of you keeping score.

For Q1 2018, my Quant strategy in Exodus netted ~+3%. For the month of March, it gained ~0.5%, beating the SPY by 200bps. For the quarter, the gains were similar vs the SPY: 200bps. However, due to today’s extreme FUCKERY, I shed nearly 1%, which will be applied to net quarter’s returns. As of now, I am only in TLT and GLD, due to defensive measures set in the strategy and will be purchases the rest of my positions for the month soon.

Also, the SPY purchases for the Oversold signal was sold at a slight loss today.

Over in my tactical account (aka retardo trading), I cleaned house and took HARROWING losses in LABU, SOXL and a sundry of low browed stocks. Although I had gains in a few, the losses far outstripped the good ones and now I am left with two illiquid small cappers and ERY — betting that oil plunges lower, helping me recover some of my drawdowns.

I’m basically all cash and ERY now.

Markets are getting hit for one very specific reason: Trump.

He’s a doubled edged sword. His retardation makes the good times better and the bad times so much worse. The China trade war spat deepened today with China affixing tariffs on another $3 billion in products. This, as you know, is absolutely nothing. But they’re doing this methodically, just to fuck with our media, and they should be bombed for this.

Also, his nonsensical tweets about Jeff Bezos and Amazon has a socialist feel to it, overtly anti-capitalist. While his point about Amazon taking advantage of the post office might be true, it serves no good by tweeting about it — like an absolute creamsicle ape.

Trump has single handedly destroyed the FAANG trade — which is off by another 2% this morning. It’s worth noting that mega caps underperformed in a big way in March, thanks to FANNG destruction. The juxtaposition between small caps and large were great last month, with 1% gains in smalls and 1% losses in large. As such, I will re-allocate the quant account into small caps for April.

For the quarter, just about all quintiles performed poorly — especially mega cap — which posted a loss of 1.75%. The best performers were found in the mid-large caps, ranging in cap from $10-50b. All in all, I am please with the systematic strategy — but woefully angered by the fucking moronic trades I just closed out.

Nothing like a clean slate to switch things up.

I hope you’re all enjoying your day, dressed like literal fags — decked out in the bright pastel colors of Easter. Men, unironically, prancing about in pink blouses, yellow pants, blue shoes — because when they were young they used to color hard boiled eggs those fanciful colors.

Last night you made believe you were a gigantic rabbit, breaking into your own house, leaving poison inside a basket for your children to eat. Like idiots, your children took the bait this morning and gave themselves cavities, and quite possibly diabetes.

After that, you pranced on over to the local church to pretend to believe in Easter — a day when Zombie Jesus came back from the dead to exact harsh revenge on his enemies. Then you did some stupid shit, like eating lunch at some church diner — sipped on some coffee and ate some toast, listening to fellow church goers talk trash about thy neighbors.

As you read this, especially if you’re Italian, dinner is about to be served. Who eats dinner at 2pm you ponder? Fucking Italians on a Sunday, especially on Easter Sunday — a day made for manicotti, stuffed shells with extra gravy (morons), fucked up pastry with hard boiled eggs embedded in them, anti-pasta — because fuck carbs.

After supper, the lot of you will sit down to watch the tube, drinking spirits, enjoying the banter between indecorous family members. In my opinion, this would be a good time to discuss your religion of atheism, one that eschews traditional beliefs, such as flying Gods and Zombie Jesus.

At any rate, I don’t want to get too heatheness on this holy day, since you never know. One day I might have to pay for these sins and I’d rather hedge my bets here and wish you all a happy easter, even though you look like ridiculous pastel colored jackasses.

Enjoy some 6ix9ine. Be sure to play this video for grandma.

You’ve got to be shitting me. Imagine if Obama did this. You Trumptards would be shouting ‘communist muckraker’ from each and every roof top.

Here’s the President tweet storming his hatred of Jeff Bezos, menacing him with billions in additional expenses.

While we are on the subject, it is reported that the U.S. Post Office will lose $1.50 on average for each package it delivers for Amazon. That amounts to Billions of Dollars. The Failing N.Y. Times reports that “the size of the company’s lobbying staff has ballooned,” and that…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 31, 2018

…does not include the Fake Washington Post, which is used as a “lobbyist” and should so REGISTER. If the P.O. “increased its parcel rates, Amazon’s shipping costs would rise by $2.6 Billion.” This Post Office scam must stop. Amazon must pay real costs (and taxes) now!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 31, 2018

Not only is Agent Orange demanding Amazon pay more in taxes, but he’s also literally demanding they pay more in expenses. What the fuck? I’m not apologizing for Amazon, but they’re merely playing the game according to its rules. If Trump wants more money, he should change the fucking laws and quit interfering in markets. This is going to have a negative impact on shares of AMZN, and possibly the market, and that’s bullshit.

HAPPY EASTER FUCKED FACES.

Look at you idiots trifling with charts, pretending to have an idea what you’re doing. It’s like watching an illiterate pretending to read a newspaper upside down. On this Easter, do yourselves a favor and rejoice as Zombie Jesus comes back from the dead to exact revenge upon his assassins.

Step into a world of treasure and mystery via Exodus — a computerized learning machine that will eventually eliminate all investment advisors. After their jobs have been taken from them, we will then begin the process of cleaning the planet from their wasteful existences and orbital space cannon (OSC) their asses into dust.

Have a look at our clean oversold signal this past month. Very precise, don’t you agree?

While some of you might read this and say ‘it’s too early for this sort of shit.’ You might add, ‘if I wanted to subscribe to the damned thing, I’d do it — leave me alone.’ While this might be true with ‘traditional services’, it does not apply to Exodus. Membership has its privileges and aside from making swaths of money via mathematical precision, members also are excluded from the orbital death-ray and will henceforth be protected under the auspices of “The Fly.”

Recent ‘pin action’ in the markets have forced our machines to learn new stress levels, since the old ones are quickly becoming irrelevant. Back when I created it, I knew that markets changed and in order to stay relevant, the software would need to ‘learn’ new markets. For members, we do this via the early dated signals (3mo, 6mo, 12mo). As this market narrative plays out, so will the effectiveness of the signals. As you can see from the chart above, with ten years of active service in the books, my time machine is still operating at the very highest of levels.

Off to see about walking my coyote.

I hope you’re all enjoying your days off from work, pretending to be religious.  As you stuff your face with delicacies and guzzle down large amounts of wine, cryptos are crashing again.

Here have a look at BTC with a 6 handle.

Here’s the aftermath truth of the matter. People like me got suckered in near the top, typical of a bubble about to burst. Even though BTC and other ICOs made terrific gains over the past 5 years, most people lost money since the popularity of bitcoin peaked with the top of the market. At its peak, the ICO asset class was worth more than $850 billion. As I write this, it is now worth just $250 billion. The result of all of that late 2017 fervor is $600 billion in losses.

WHO’S STEPPING IN NOW, DOWN AT THESE LEVELS?

Pro tip: you can’t

Remember back in the old days when you’d used to lick stamps like retards? Nowadays, people subscribe to Stamps.com — because fuck the post office. With the proliferation of a lazy boned society, coupled with the wanton ineptitude of the American youth, it’s only a matter of time before STMP becomes a household name, just like Netflix.

Future convo between Gen Zers:

“What you gonna do today, blood?”

“Yo, I’m gonna take some heroin pills, turn up to some Netflix, and then logon to my Stamps.com account and get some postage.”

“Me too blood.”

Based on the current revenue trajectory, STMP is NFLX circa 2005.

Back in 2005, NFLX had a market cap of $1 billion (now $110b). Based upon this very scientific analysis, providing STMP is “the next” NFLX, there is roughly 100x returns yet to be enjoyed by shareholders of STMP.

Prove me wrong. I’ll wait.

Thank God the month of March is over, right? We endured plenty of hardships and have gone through the meat grinder in order to experience a better life in April. On the matter of God, I find it refreshing that the Catholic Pope is now admitting to being an atheist. According to him, there’s no hell. Some might call that heresy. Others might suggest the person who’d want to convince people the devil did not exist most is the devil himself.

Markets barrel rolled higher today, for no reason whatsoever. We’re just meandering around, making messes along the way. Both GLD and TLT outperformed in March, which means my quant portfolio will have 10% weighting in each for the month of April. Those rules are built into the quant in order to protect against the downside.

While enjoying your baked ham and chocolate eggs this Easter, might I suggest handing out highly profane books with RARE ART on it during dinner? At some point in my life, I intend to complete the trilogy and discuss my come up from 2003-present; however, I’ve been preoccupied with other things and I really haven’t been reading all that much. When I’m not reading good prose, I do not want to write it.

Life for Le Fly now consists of all work and zero play, a moribund existence bookmarked by two barking dogs trying to bite one another 23 hours per day. When I’m not walking my wild coyote around the neighborhood menacing the neighbors with it, I am working in some capacity. When I am not working, I am shuffling the kids around in a car, or perhaps going food shopping like a nice man. It’s good to be a nice man because bad men are evil and mean.

I do get to watch some teevee at night, usually after midnight. Recently, I’ve been listening to more rap music; perhaps coinciding with my newly adopted diet which includes the consumption of RARE meats. Drinking has been minimal and exercise virtually non-existent. My new gym membership begins in late April, so I intend to start taking large doses of creatine then in a Hail Mary attempt to provide myself with kidney failure. Also, I’ll probably spend most of my days there. It’s a rather large facility and I am not tethered to any one place, being the freelance shit poster that I am. I could not be assembling my advisory firm slower. I find excuses all the time to not want to do it. Heck, I’ll get around to it sometime this year; I’m just having too much fun doing absolutely nothing.

Here’s some nice music for you to listen to during Good Friday. Be sure to play it loud so that the wife can enjoy the subtleties of the prose.

This morning Trump crossed the line again, meddling in Wall Street affairs by shitposting about AMZN. He knows exactly what he’s doing, having run a publicly traded company before. He knew before he posted an incendiary remark on Twitter that it would hurt the share price of AMZN. Out of all of Trump’s tweets, this one got me the most pissed off.

I have stated my concerns with Amazon long before the Election. Unlike others, they pay little or no taxes to state & local governments, use our Postal System as their Delivery Boy (causing tremendous loss to the U.S.), and are putting many thousands of retailers out of business!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 29, 2018

Imagine owning calls on AMZN going into today, and then falling victim to this fucking shit. Politics aside, it’s degenerate vagrant homeless man tier’d shit and should not be tolerated.

Shares of AMZN are sliding again, off by nearly $30.

Incidentally, the entire FAAG (FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL) is under siege now — down by more than 11% in the past two weeks. We’re talking more than $300 billion in market cap gone in a fortnight.

Here’s the quick run down.

FB: caught stealing personal information for political purposes. What they really did was prostitute themselves to beat quarterly estimates.

AMZN: The President hates Jeff Bezos because he owns the Washington Post, a paper that regularly defecates on him. As a result, he is now looking to fuck him, and by extension, shareholders of AMZN.

AAPL: No drama yet. This is the best performing FAANG stock during the decline, off by 5.5%

NFLX: These idiots added Susan Rice, former Obama National Security Advisor, to their board. This is a woman who is hated by tens of millions of conservatives. This is an idiotic move by Reed Hastings.

GOOGL: These assholes have gone batshit crazy with Youtube, censoring like a motherfucker — booting people off the platform for political bias. On the Google end, it’s only a matter of time before people learn about all of their sins, constant intrusions into user privacy. Google is the king and queen of selling personal data to beat quarterly estimates.

In order for the market to recover and trade up, these stocks need to recover and flay short sellers until they capitulate.

As an aside, I like today’s action.

As for Deutsche Bank, they believe you should ignore Trump and his retarded tweets and get long some AMZN down here.

Source: CNBC

“We see some small risk that the President could use the bully pulpit to criticize Amazon, and potentially put up some roadblocks for the company,” analyst Lloyd Walmsley advised clients Wednesday. But “if it were such a slam dunk case, we think it is quite likely that we would have seen a tweet from @RealDonaldTrump about an impending regulatory action.”

“In our view, this ship has already sailed. Amazon has been charging sales tax to customers — for its 1P sales – in all the 45 states that have a statewide sales tax…In a way, we think charging sales tax has been a boon to Amazon because it now has extensive fulfillment facilities close to consumers such that it can lead the way in offering faster and more reliable deliveries.”

“We estimate it costs Amazon about $2 per package delivered via USPS,” the analyst wrote. “If Amazon could replicate the last mile costs to below $2 per package, it is likely that the USPS may be operating at the same or similar levels, which suggests that the Amazon business may be breakeven or even profitable.”

“The potential for harm from the President’s ire is far less of a risk, near term at least, than the risks that Cambridge Analytica has exposed around Facebook,” Walmsley added, referring to the ongoing data crisis at the social media titan. “The U.S. Department of Justice focuses on the impact on consumers, not the impact on competitors, when it evaluates antitrust issues. Given Amazon has been a positive force for competition and for consumers, it seems like it would be an unusual target.”

Over the past two weeks, we’ve been dragged through the mud, giving back all of our gains and MOAR, off by 5.5% in a fortnight — netting a YTD return of -2.5% for the S&P 500. Setting aside the recent spate of panic, certain sectors have done very well in 2018, particularly software, hospitals, health services and even department stores.

While everyone else is freaking out about bitcoin and chip stocks, DSS, KSS and M have posted great returns. On the downside is oil pipelines, housewares and accessories, and aluminum.

Drilling down to the meat and potatoes of the top, Basic Materials have been dreadful, in spite of oil’s climb upwards — down 7.7% as a group. Consumer Goods didn’t fare any better, off by 7.2%. Financials were down 3%, Healthcare -0.5%, Industrials -6.5%, Services -3.5%, Utilities -4.5%, and Tech -2%.

Even bonds were lower, with TLT posting losses of 4.5%.

The choppiness has been especially foreboding in recent weeks, especially in tech stocks — thanks to the epiphany by absolute retards that the social networks procure and sell our personal data. Duh.

The price of Bitcoin has been halved since the beginning of the year, and a sundry of fraudulent ICOs have gone down all the way — including Bitconnect.

The very best ETN every invented, XIV, went from +500% gains over 5 years to -100% during one afternoon session — catching yours truly with his pants down, absolutely. But it has been fun. I’ve enjoyed the back and forth and I love the banter inside the Pelican Room in Exodus — even though it has been hard.

As for today, markets are looking to rebound. S&P futures are +12, Nasdaq +50. WTI, however, is lower by 0.11%, which will hopefully bode okay for my ERY position. Crypto traders are flummoxed and getting flushed. BTC is -6.5% and Ripple is off by 10%.

I made this with my own hands. Hitler getting end of quarter report on sovereign wealth fund. Enjoy.