Taking a Break From Small Caps — Bought $OKTA, $OLED

Big move out of UCTT has me thinking OLED is on track. Getting some SASS exposure here, I bought OKTA.

Nice move in the markets, although I’m not a big fan. Fuck this shit. But I will play along and be nice.

I see the shippers are running again and some biotechs — but these moves are being faded. Best way to play these lottos is end of day for the next morning rip higher.

My Quant portfolio is up 111bps today.
My Quant portfolio is up 111bps today.
My Quant portfolio is up 111bps today.
My Quant portfolio is up 111bps today.
My Quant portfolio is up 111bps today.
My Quant portfolio is up 111bps today.
My Quant portfolio is up 111bps today.
My Quant portfolio is up 111bps today.
My Quant portfolio is up 111bps today.

Why did I just do that?

I cannot tell you how many absolute faggots complain about the short term trading nature of the FUCKING TRADING ROOM inside Exodus. I do both, fucked face. As a point in fact, I do long term cap growth more than trading. As a point in fact, 75% of my money is long term. If you want to learn more about long term cap growth, dare I say, join The Capstone Programme?

I’m looking to add a few longs here.

I’ll be back in an hour or so.

At this point, what difference does it make?

Apparently, the downside in the transports index (12 days) is the worst since 1969. Another negative bullet point: Factset estimates earnings will be lower by 3% this quarter, yet stocks seem to be doing well.

Meanwhile, SAAS stocks are +2% this morning and I have too much cash. Time to look for some longs.

It’s too god damned grim a thing to be talking about in the early morning. Let’s just say Boeing has some explaining to do and the world is raising an eyebrow to their 737 Max 8 planes. The reason why BA has done so well is because we’re in an upgrade cycle and foreign countries are buying new fleets. If this turns out to be their fault, shares of BA are in for a lot more than a 10% decline.

Ethiopian Airlines and China's aviation authority grounded its Boeing 737 Max 8 planes after Sunday's crash that killed 157 people. Regulators pointed to last year's Lion Air crash and said they have zero tolerance for safety hazards. @KrisVanCleave reports: pic.twitter.com/CAAc5QdPHh

— CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) March 11, 2019

Ethi­o­pia, China and other countries announced Monday that they would ground the type of U.S. aircraft that was involved in a devastating Ethio­pian Airlines crash that killed everyone on board Sunday just minutes after takeoff.

A national day of mourning has been declared in Ethio­pia, and investigators are sifting through the crash site to identify remains so they can be turned over to families. Ethi­o­pia Airlines reported that the “black box” voice and data recorders have been recovered from the plane.

China’s Civil Aviation Administration said in a statement early Monday that it has asked domestic airlines to temporarily ground all Boeing 737 Max 8 jets before 6 p.m. It was the first time China has taken the lead in ordering a model grounded before other national aviation agencies.

Cayman Airways and Indonesia’s airlines also suspended the use of the Boeing 737 Max 8 plane, the latest version of the industry’s most popular passenger airline. Indonesia’s director general of civil aviation, Polana B. Pramesti, said the move was to ensure flight safety and that the planes would be inspected. Indonesia has 11 Max 8 aircraft in service.

Officials are “conducting an inspection by temporarily grounding the planes to make sure that they’re airworthy,” Pramesti said in a statement.

India’s chief air regulator announced it would be reviewing the situation with the aircraft and planned to issue new safety instructions to operators by Tuesday.

This drop in BA will contribute to 200 down points for the Dow. Aside from this, markets look fine early going.

My wish list is rather condensed. I’d like to continue to see stocks horrify investors to the downside, triggering ‘retest the bottom’ calls that will serve me well, as I am partly positioned short via DRIP and LABD. I did close out my TVIX, TZA and SOXS trades, so I’ll need to get back into those, post haste.

Gold should continue higher, especially with wage growth at 3.4%. People are citing lack of inflation, coupled with very high wage growth as some sort of fucking nirvana where the economy could, in fact, have this relationship indefinitely. Pray tell me, how goes one avoid inflation whilst people are flush with cash?

These are decade high numbers and no one seems to give a shit about it. How long will the Fed sit by, idly, waiting for inflation to crush rich people? No long, believe me.

At the open of trade tomorrow, I’ll be looking for small cap biotech and/or Chinese stocks. Adding to shorts will come later.

CIAO.

This isn’t a post for just Exodus users. You fuckers are more than welcomed to take a 7 day trial. Every time the market presents us with an opportunity to grab quick short term again, FUCKERS give me pushback for traveling this road. For some reason, people are afraid and disdain what they don’t understand. My philosophy is ‘at this point, what difference does it make?’

They’re all just letters and numbers to me, algorithms moving fast through our simulation, ingratiating some while being punitive with others.

This past week, I nailed an overnight double, two 45% wins, and about a dozen or so double digit wins.

How did I do it? Aside from the unbelievable research being done in The Pelican Room (the trading room inside Exodus), I use one specific screen and here it is.

First, I sort by % up to see what’s popping. Then I look at the industries to see if there’s a common thread. Last week was first Chinese Burritos (only Exodus has an entirely separate sector for Chinese stocks), and then biotechs — all small caps.  I scan for stocks with market caps less than $5b and favor stocks up more than 10% for the session. Most importantly is the average volume vs intra-day volume. In most of the stocks I traded this week, they had intra-day volume 10x and higher their average volume — indicative of a stock gone parabolic. Lastly, and this is a neat little thing I added, I look for stocks within 1% of their intra-day highs. I don’t always use this measure — but I find it especially useful towards the end of the day — because stocks that rip higher into the close typically continue higher the next morning.

Most importantly, you have to sell these rippers within 30 minutes the next day. The trade is, mostly, for the next day — so don’t let trades turn into investments and then finally into losses.

Enjoy your Saturday.

My trades today: $SEEL +42%, $TNXP +45%, $TVIX +17%, $TZA +13%, +SOXS +8%, $TROV +5.5%, $PULM +29%,$TENX +10%, $SELB -12%, $SNSS -2%, $CYCC -10%.

Hedges in place: LABD, DRIP and I am long gold via NUGT.

Gold is back on track.

Overall, spectacular week. Zero complaints. Terrific wins, believe me. Gonna do it again next week. For those interested, I’m in the process of writing my third book, non-related to the other two stories I published. This one is going to be about blogging in 2008, showcasing my blogs here, backstory, comments from you fuckers — my chart art, side vignettes, discussions with clients etc. So far, I’m having fun with it. It might be ready by summer.

NOTE: I bought LPTX for the weekend lotto.

+29% booked — day trade.

Everything else is going. How about some god damned ethanol? I’ve been waiting for this to move for two weeks.

Booked TVIX +17%, TZA +13% and SOXS +8%.

Still short biotech via LABD an oil via DRIP.

UPDATE: Sold TENX +13% (day trade), sold SELB -12% (day trade), sold SNSS -2%, sold VNRX -7%, sold CYCC -10%.

UPDATE: I doubled down on TROV, reducing basis to $7.2 and then sold entire amount at $7.60 for 5.5% win. All trade done in real time inside Exodus.

Moral of the story — playing with biotech bombs is not always seamless.

Biotech lotto bombs aside, where is the overall direction of the market heading next? Are today’s jobs numbers more important than AMKR saying, about a month ago, that their unit shipments to Apple were -30% into year end? I think not.

The jobs report is a lagging indicator, but it becomes very real to Main Street when they’re reported. Sometimes the things we already knew become more serious once reported upon officially — such as a Lehman or a Bear bankruptcy. We all knew it’d happen. And when it did — it rocked markets.

I think it’s important to moderate opinions until we hear some guidance out of Apple. I really do think it’s that important. In the interim, book profits whenever you can and try not to get lured back into stocks on a Friday after a wretched jobs report, coupled with sharply lower crude and weakness in the junk bond market.