The Global Deflationary Vortex is Here

On a global scale of epic proportions, the deflationary vortex is back. Look at bonds in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. LOOK AT THEM.

Now look at the Italians. We have divergence.

Futures are sharply lower — but I’m twisted in knots over the simple fact that stocks do not trade lower on Fridays.

Here are all of the Fridays for 2019, thus far.

Nasdaq % change

3/15 +0.76%

3/8 -0.18%

3/1 +0.83%

2/22 +0.91%

2/15 +0.61%

2/8 +0.14%

2/1 -0.25%

1/25 +1.29%

1/18 +1.03%

1/11 -0.21%

1/4 +4.26%

8 up Friday’s to just 3 down.

In other news, Maria Bartiromo interview Trump today.

pic.twitter.com/qjoe0rc3rQ

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 22, 2019

Same China FUD news.

Happening now: @realDonaldTrump @POTUS – "there is no snag in china negotiations. I think we will get a deal." @MorningsMaria @FoxBusiness "the Europeans charge us eirse than china."

— Maria Bartiromo (@MariaBartiromo) March 22, 2019

The other day I stated we’d easily push to new highs, which of course was mocked and derided by the very worst person in the world — a horrible and vicious man, slavic and slovenly — a man who needs no introduction — insidiously venomous and unseasonable in every way imaginable.

Now with today’s feverish jump higher — everyone is all on board for more gains — the ascension to new highs is all but a foregone conclusion.

Exodus flagged overbought for QQQ today, a signal that has resulted in sharply higher prices for our 6 mo algorithm. Six up, zero down — as good as it gets. Will human behavior remain in line with recent history? I do believe so.

Playing devil’s advocate here, the QQQs could, potentially, be setting up for a head and shoulders top. These rabid analyses are always unpopular when markets are in bull mode. It’s only after the fact do we hear of these technical events. Look at it now and see it.

Same thing is setting up for gold. I’m a fan of gold — heavily long the commodity, but the technicals patterns of a sinister nature are lining up here.

On the bull side, big ass white candle today. View all recent big ass white candles and see it has brought nothing but gains. Prepare for higher prices.

Ignore the biotech grenades. Ignore the small cap gambles. This is melt up mode — the movement of big money is underway. You want to ensure that your portfolios participate with the market. The only way to do that is by buying stocks tightly correlated to the Nasdaq.

Top picks: RPD, AYX, COUP, ROKU, ACIA, MTCH.

How wonderful. Are you still bearish?

Markets are definitely heading back to record highs and there’s nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it. Look at MU — bad earnings, but not bad enough — rippage to the upside.

Try to stand in front of this freight train and find yourselves broken, stuck, forked, radish.

I bought CPG into the closing hour of trade, not because I like the company or ‘feel’ that it has good prospects. I couldn’t care less about that, frankly. I bought it because it’s going higher, and that’s all there is to it.

My biggest winners today were SOLY (+19.2% booked gain), HCLP, AYX, and COUP.

I also bought a little ACIA — for the glory and for God.

Over in my quantitative strategy, I enjoyed gains of nearly 200bps. Nothing you can do will ever compare to my level of winship. You might as well give up and go play video games, instead of feigning competition against the greatest trader in the history of the world.

Good day.

Sometimes you just need a little blind faith.

Imagine yourself to be an idiot moron, a person devoid of rational thinking — making directional bets long and long only. Market goes up — you buy. Markets go down — you buy. There can be no deviation — because like a dog, whenever the bell rings and you place money into the market — you win!

What grandiose superlatives!

I stand before you a very victorious man. My Quant is higher by 143bps — +5% over the past two weeks or 150bps more than the SPY. As you struggle to produce returns for your clients, I assure you — I can do better.

My trading account looks like Michelangelo himself etched it out and placed it on a ceiling of some random church, simply astounding. I took profits in SOLY, +19.2% for a two day hold, not because I don’t think losers will have their tattoos removed, but because it’s time for me to harvest gains in a stock designed to be a trade. It was never an investment, old sport.

I’ve got about 25% cash in there, also heavily long NUGT, so I’ll probably attempt to offset that conservative bias with something spectacular.

Stay tuned.

This is the sort of tape that wrecks people, truly. I got whipsawed today and yesterday, as we’ve vacillated thanks to news flow. First it was the Chinese trade war news, then the Fed, then people second guessed the Fed — perhaps viewed it as an institutional weakness due in large part of a concern of theirs.

Maybe the economy is slowing much faster than is being reported.

WRONG.

The Fed works in not-so-mysterious ways. They want higher stock prices and they are aware that hiking rates was getting in the way of that primary goal. The foolishness of today should be resolved tomorrow.

Here are the main take aways.

Oil, gold sharply higher.
Dollar, bond yields sharply lower.

As you were. This will all work out in the end.

Top pick: NUGT.

Markets are totally BOGGED today — but that’s ok. I like directional weakness in dollar and upwards tilt on gold. I bought NUGT, increasing position to max size, AU, AYX, HCLP and PUMP — the last two a play on fracking — late state, WTI over $60 plays.

The China trade FUD was released earlier today to trick you into selling, knowing this news was just around the bend. They did it on purpose to separate you from your money.

The Fed has genuflected to the market. Here are the headlines.

The Fed indicates that no more rate hikes will be coming this year.
The announcement comes three months after the central bank said two hikes would be appropriate in 2019.
The central bank also says it will complete its balance sheet roll-off program at the end of the September.
The Fed also reduced expectations in GDP growth and inflation and a bump higher in the unemployment rate outlook.
As expected, the benchmark funds rate is kept in a range of 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.

No more hikes in 2019, all the while wage growth and employment are surging to record levels can only mean one thing: inflation. Whether it’s reported in the CPI or not is moot.

Look at the dollar, down sharply by 0.8% vs the Euro.

Look at the 10yr bond, down 8bps to 2.53%.

These are incredible moves.

As such, I added to my NUGT position, making it a maximum weighted holding — 15% of assets. I also bought AU and AYX. Oil is bidding here too. Get out there and buy some stocks.

POMP EEET.

Here we go again.

One week ago we were very close, believe me, to a trade deal with China. It’s gonna be the best trade deal ever. Now we’re being told such a deal is pure fantasy, very far away. After markets drop — Trump will send out Larry Kudlow to talk up the trade deal again.

This all started to fall apart after Trump fumbled with the N. Korean leader, who is a proxy for China.

Due to his perceived unpopularity, I doubt China will cede any meaningful ground to us until after the 2020 elections. Once the elections are over and the new leader is chosen, said leader will be praised as a negotiating guru for stumbling into a deal that Donald Duck could’ve brokered.

I’m already 40-45% cash, so now I’ll just sit around and wait for things to get worse, or better. Either way, it looks like traps are being laid everywhere.

It was just yesterday, on this very blog, that I flatly stated I was a lottery winner because I owned AYTU. At the time of the post, I was +15% on an intra-day gambit, feeling my oats, strong like a horse, powerful, and invincible. I told my readers to ‘fuck you, go home and play with your kids.’

What sort of person talks like this?

I was filled with hubris and in short order — I’d be dispatched. In the early going this morning — I sold out for a 13% loss.

See pal…

There’s a parable in here someplace… man dicks around long enough…gets himself a case of the aids.

Long story short, I’ve had my fill with the micro-cap segment of the market and will now focus on grander scores. The allure of fast gains has quickly dissipated, now that said gains have turned into harrowing losses. More than that, the speed of the movements has made trading less fun, forcing me to babysit my account and I don’t like to live like that. “The Fly” is a romantic figure, a renaissance man if you will — cavorting and gliding throughout life easy, taking the long road because the views are pastoral and scenic. I do not rush, nor do I waiver.

I sashay in the most masculine way imaginable.

It’s a rare thing to see markets flat before the open. Typically fuckers have a bias. But today looks like one of those days with little to no pre-market activity. As sure as I’m sitting here — extreme volatility will occur during the rest of the tradings day.

Shares of BA are higher on news that an Indonesian pilot saved a 737 Super Max from going down 1 day before the fatal Ethiopian crash. Because we live in a bizarro world — this is considered to be good news.

Google got fined $1.7b in Europe for being assholes. Any interest? No, let’s move on.

UBS said this was their worst quarter in a very long time. Even their advisory division shed 9%. Nothing? Ok.

Shares of SMAR are sharply higher, post earnings. If you have to gamble on a report, why not do it with a SAAS company? After all, the whole point of their business models is that they’re repeatable.

GIS beat and his sharply higher. Wonderful. Why is LANC going up everyday? Jack Daniels mustard that popular?

See you after the market opens.