We’re in a Bear Market, Until Stocks Break Higher Again

How do we resolve the present tape? It’s important to remember that we’re only going lower due to a self-inflicted wound. Agreed? That being said, the wound can be resolved rather quickly. Would you also agree?

So, naturally, shorting into a tape with a poor technical set up is sensible, only if the move lower was organic — but this is anything but that. Trump can announce a deal this afternoon and stocks will spring higher by 900 tomorrow.

It’s true, I am short via SOXS and DRIP, but they’re merely hedges against much larger long exposure.

Head into this poor technical set up with trepidation, but know and understand the cards are entirely in Trump’s hands. For now, I am not adhering to my stop losses and will consider doubling down in my trading position if we gap lower tomorrow.

Good luck and fuck off.

I love how bears always find a way to explain how the record highs mean nothing and how we’re in a secular bear market, merely bouncing for a decade or so. All of the gains are temporary. Historians will look back upon this era and view it the same as the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Here’s The Bond King, Jeff Gundlach, insisting we’re in a bear market — because, well I don’t even know how to defend it.

“I think we’re going to keep seeing more tension and I think the 25% tariff bump is better than 50% chance” of happening, DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach tells CNBC.

He believes U.S. stocks are in a bear market because the NYSE composite index has fallen “over 20% and has failed to return to its high.”

Gundlach also criticizes President Trump for heralding monthly economic reports, such as U.S. job creation, as symbols of the economy.

We’re in a secular bear market inside of a cyclical bull market. Or is it the other way around? Stocks entered a great bear market in 2000 and then re-re-entered into another one in 2007 and never recovered. Sure the market is up 30% this year, but those gains are merely happenstance. Trust Jeff Gundlach — he’s a fucking champ.

Any notion of respite you had in your pea brains — wash it out now. HYG is sharply lower. Oil is down and oil stocks are sharply lower. Everything you thought you knew about the Trump-China deal is gone. Investment Advisor fucking retards have been walking around on Twitter with their cocks exposed, declaring their evergreen genius to be paramount to anything invented since the wheel.

Fun fact: Native Americans never invented the fucking wheel.

What should you expect?

Sharply lower prices for one to two weeks. I warned you of this in the morning.

I sold TMV for my first loss in 15 trades for -5.5% and then sold YELP for +2.5%, extending my streak to 15 of 16. Moreover, I bought SOXS and DRIP to hedge. I am 50% cash, 100% winning.

I sold GNLN for a 6.3% gain, a one day hold. This makes my last 15 closed trades profitable ones. I don’t think I can keep up this streak without a little zero-hedging; but we’ll see. I am now 55% cash and 100% sure we go lower.

The VIX index is now at $20. Anything above $17 is bullish. Markets will not recover from this quickly.

Oil is hammered and finally HYG produced a red candle.

You should be lightening up now and hedging.

The journalists at CNBC are printing lies again.

Every time the market is at an impasse — the cuckholds from CNBC print lies — warning of grave dangers to Main Street if the debt ceiling wasn’t raised, the government wasn’t funded before a deadline, the credit rating cut from AAA, to this Chinese trade war nonsense. I’ve come to believe in nothing, which is a religion unto itself. Some of you believe everything you’re told. Life is easier that way. When you believe in nothing and do not have a strong moral compass, life can go sideways quickly and next thing you know you’re roping yourself off the side of a hotel window. Best thing to do is simply focus on the things that makes sense and you can control.

Futures are down 190. Apparently, yesterday’s respite, was in fact, the olde hucklebuck — just as I suspected. Now all of those people who got ROPED into stocks, those people are going to be tossed around today. I’d be surprised if we got another buy the dip moment this morning, only because most shareholders are weak and cannot withstand a barrage of selling of this magnitude.

Best to batten down the hatches, raise some cash, and prepare for a week or two of harrowing losses.

I find myself getting irritable again. After a year or so of seemingly pleasant living, I am being uprooted from my somber sleep and feel a boiling rage inside of me, only tempered by the fact I am always tired — sleep deprived, and sustained on extensive coffee binges.

Today was an easy market to predict because oil didn’t gap lower with the indices and HYG went up. I can’t keep wasting my fucking time repeating the same things, only to see you ignore it and blow yourselves up in errant trades gone stupid.

My Quant is up 93bps today with 20 mins left of trading. My latest purchase, GNLN, is sperging out to the upside. I am about to buy one more stock to close out the fucking day and then take a giant construction bag and fill it with old cans of paint. I don’t give a shit about the environment and I hope my paint spills into your morning coffee.

Fucking off for now.

I bought some GNLN today, new IPO specializing in vaping. All of the cool kids these days vape. Seeing the stock lower from it’s offering price, I like my chances here — based upon the ancient laws of addiction and substance abuse.

Last night I was truly excited for the first time in weeks, seeing futures limit down and Zerohedge excited on Twitter and all of the bullfags peasantly quiet, demurred by the specter of pain. In spite of having 50% of my trading account long and 100% of my long term quant long, I wanted to see investors ‘go away in May’ because I’ve been bored and needed another distraction — aside from cleaning blinds and moving.

Early this morning, the news got even worse after it was reported we might strike Iran for looking at us sideways. We sent the USS Lincoln there to put those fuckers in line and Trump was tweeting shit towards China.

Then I saw Brent higher this morning and WTI barely down and I knew it was more nothing.

Buy the dipFAGS barreled in heavy and now we get to listen to so many market geniuses telling us to simply buy all the time and there’s never going to be a pullback — because I don’t know what anymore. I do freely admit that the bull market has been great for me — but I must also admit that I hate it with nearly every fiber of my existence.

I’ve thought about this a long time and I think I know why.

See, this market is like a baseball game with 5 outfielders and no strikeouts. Swing until you hit the ball. Ever play that shit as a boy? No one on the bench — but pile everyone in the outfield and let the batter swing 100 times until he hits the God damned ball. Second place, third place trophies for all. That’s what this market is to me — rigged and an abhorrent display of late stage end game capitalism.

Oh, I’m being dramatic and talking shit?

Then explain to me why the ECB had to bail out all of the fucking banks in 2012 and tell me what was happening to said banks before they did? Also, explain to me what would’ve happened to American banks, had it not been for the continuous support of the Fed?

We’re all filled with vim and hubris, courtesy of government support for markets. Believe me, I’m not betting against it and it’s likely to keep going higher. But do not disillusion yourselves and be clear eyed about what you have in front of you — a Frankenstonian economy at $22 trillion in debt standing on its legs thanks to the crutches provided by central banks.

I didn’t buy anything this morning because I didn’t want to get lured into a buy the dip morning and get ravaged by a sell the buy afternoon.

Tired of winning yet?

Israel vs Gaza.

America vs Iran/China.

There will be wars and rumors of wars.

Lots of rumors swirling about China now — such as China breaking off talks due to Trump’s Sunday night outburst. Also, news out of the Middled East is that Iran was planning an attack on US forces in the region, which expedited the deployment of the USS Lincoln. Naturally, this is all bullshit — another scheme to get Americans to die on Middle Eastern soil. Nevertheless, it’s news.

Late Sunday night, the White House made a surprise announcement that the USS Abraham Lincoln and a bomber task force were being deployed in response to unspecified “troubling and escalatory indications and warnings.”

A statement from National Security Adviser John Bolton said the deployments were intended “to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.”

“The United States is not seeking war with the Iranian regime, but we are fully prepared to respond to any attack, whether by proxy, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or regular Iranian forces,” the statement continued.

A U.S. official told ABC News the deployments were in response to “clear indications” Iranian and Iranian proxy forces were preparing for a possible attack, and that the decision to send forces was made on Sunday.

“The movement of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the region was expedited, and it was ordered there effective immediately,” said the official.

The carrier is currently in the Mediterranean after leaving Norfolk, Virginia, on April 1. The Navy no longer provides destinations for its carrier deployments, but the carrier likely would have had to transit through the Middle East toward its new home port of San Diego at the end of its deployment.

Also, Trump declared via Twitter the United Steaks would not lose to China anymore. As of April, the US trade gap with China was 49.4 billion clown dollars, down to the lowest level since (wait for it)… June of 2018.

The United States has been losing, for many years, 600 to 800 Billion Dollars a year on Trade. With China we lose 500 Billion Dollars. Sorry, we’re not going to be doing that anymore!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 6, 2019

Dow futures are -450.

UPDATE: A source told CNBC that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will likely cancel the trip he’d planned for himself and a 100-person delegation for the final round of talks that U.S. officials had previously said could yield a deal by Friday.

A second source said Trump’s decision to more than double the tariff rate on $200 billion of goods was meant to send a message to Liu to not come to the U.S. with more “empty offers.”

It’s over fucked faces. Le Fly told you market would go away in May and here we are now — making all of you absolute FUCKHEADS cringe and eat your words. Hubris always comes before the fall and now your dumb ass is about to be dispatched and you’re already thinking this will end the same way it did in December and maybe it will — but maybe it won’t.

One thing is for certain, being permanently anything makes you an idiot — a useless dull knife in a draw filled with other dull butter knives. “The Fly” is a blunt instrument of war — sharpest blade in the garage — shit cuts your fingers off by just looking at it. Cuts through bones like hot butter.

Dow futures are down 500, Nasdaq -176. Ring the alarms — there’s a fire raging now and it’s heading for your bullshit portfolios.