Waiting to Buy

Decent bounce day but I’m not trading it. I sold my TNA at 4am and haven’t looked at the market since 9:30. Well, that’s not entirely true since I just looked at the market now and saw small caps struggling, but not too bad. All of the right sectors are rallying and this could be the bottom, or the end of the faux panic.

Come on people. You know how this ends. We are pretending there are free markets and make believing they game isn’t rigged. Yes stocks will go higher. Yes the Fed will do everything in their power to support stock prices. And yes there will be periods of stress and none of the Fed support applies to your piece of shit Penny stocks.

Into the afternoon hours I’ll likely start buying. I’m u 36bps and the quant is up 1%. This isn’t something to write about in an online bloggery. To truly bottom, we need something spectacular to the upside.

Markets reversed a +500 and turned that smile upside down, in a panicked for the exit close. Everything that could go wrong did. The Fed said they’re very interested in tapering and Fauci opened his big fat mouth about Omicron- discussing the first such case in the US. All of this, and much more, has led us to where I told you we would be by Xmas — which is on the verge, if not inside of, a lockdown. The peoples of the vaccinated part of society welcomed with warm embraces state led dictatorship all in the name of health. We are ever so scared to die — because in the end — everyone is an atheist. Deep down at least, no one really believes in heaven, otherwise they’d welcome death as a comfort and not an anathema.

On the issue of uncertainty, we have markets barreling lower and your urge is to retreat, when in fact you should be charging forward.

Fixed bayonets, leaning into this decline, is how I will play it.

I had escaped today’s horrors up until late afternoon when I fancied myself too smart and bought ADGI and it quickly sank 7% on me. I had also positioned into old man stocks — thinking they’d rally into the close as investors sought out safe havens. I was wrong. I had a 15% position in DRIP and ended selling it 3 mins to the bell for profit and then I switched around, the lunatic that I am, and dove into TNA (TITS N ASS) into what is sure to be a tumultuous overnight session. It is a 10% position and all I have, aside from my BITO call position.

I ended down 0.48%.

Into panic, I will add to the TNA position and I find myself most comforted by the idea of a leveraged upside ETF in the midst of unrivaled panic. The mood has been dour all year and the President and his polices dreadful. We are here now because of the actions of people and the confidence that has been built upon the sandy foundations of the Federal Reserve is starting to give way. Nonetheless, it is my experience, at least in recent times, nothing ever happens and the disasters we almost all look forward to is avoided.

I am brave because I am enriched with a history of success and this success has been yours for free since 2007. Congrats to you.

I haven’t done anything other than liquidate my longs and sit and wait to allocate into this month’s Quant. I am up 100bps on the Quant on today’s move and now sit in cash. About 20 mins ago the market dumped out but is now recovering. We are not likely to give it up today — but we are not promised tomorrow either.

I do not believe December is going to yield a large move in either direction. The year is over. Go enjoy handing out egg salad sandwiches to the homeless at your local shelter.

Last year November this experimental account I started at $100k was at $114k. I had never tried day trading and, to be honest, I always looked down upon day traders — until the great baboon bubble of late 2020 and the advent and invention of Stocklabs‘ volume tools — which helped me achieve day trading dominance. One year later, I booked a 7.3% gain for the month of November, which is about 30% of the original value of this account.

100-500k in a year

Am I a special boy? I don’t know. I trade shitty often enough to think not. The results are what they are and I haven’t taken much risk to achieve it — 5% positions, almost always with a large cash position. Admittedly, I was greatly helped by the baboon rally of late 2020-early 2021 — but my gains in 2020 was even greater.

In short, The Fly reigns supreme amongst all of you shit-bowlers — guessing and hemming and hawing your way to a zero account balance.

I closed the session +17bps, mainly due out of cowardice and closed with a 10% position in TZA to pair nicely with a handful of longs — upwards of 60% cash. Typically we bounce from large sell offs. My feeeeeeeling is we have another leg lower before it’s over. This has been “too orderly” and we need a flush out.

Why do we need a “flush out?

I don’t know.

My stratagem for the past 2+ months, ever since I righted my ship, was to get long stocks only near session highs and to focus on larger capped, and then selling every single one of them before 10am. Also, in recent weeks, I almost always took a hedge into the close. The reasoning it simple: survive the hard tapes in order to thrive during the really good ones.

But with stocks down sharply today, the Dow off by nearly 600, my strategy will change and instead of buying strong stocks — I will buy the weakest ones. But I’m not buying trash. I will be buying great companies down big.

But before I do that there are several things of note. The first being high yield bonds under pressure.

It’s probably nothing. In case it’s something, I want to be sure I am not buying dips at the onset of a credit crisis.

This recent rout has coincided nicely for Biden, who desperate needed to see inflation moderate. We have moderation and yields have been sinking back into a deflationary vortex, with the 10yr down to 1.44%. Some people say, at some point, the 10yr will be negative yielding. Perhaps. But we’ll have time to respond to it when the new credit crisis emerges. For now, I am only interested in the next 3 days.

Important to note: the last oversold cycle in Stocklabs was on 9/28. Here is the hourly returns during those days. Clearly you can see stocks bounced from 1-3pm. Be careful of oversold bounces that dive back into murderholes.

I am not sure if I want to hedge with an inverse ETF today — because there is a chance markets open higher and I can lose 10% long one of those fuckers. But on the other hand, the market might be just getting started on the downside, the onset of something dreadful.

We’re closing out November a real bowser — down 4% for the IWM and down more than 8% for tech and 13% for healthcare. If you made more than 0% this month, tap yourselves on the shoulder for a job well done.

My only question into the 3pm hour is how much exposure do I want into tomorrow? I am thinking 25%, with a 5% hedge. That won’t yield a very high return, however. Or, I might go 10% upside ETF and the rest cash.

We’ll see.

Futures dumped out last night thanks to a comment by the CEO of MRNA who said the current vaccine might not be effective against Omicron. MRNA skeptics have stated from day 1 these jabs might lead us down a perilous road of vaccine failure, whereby the vaccinated are in fact causing the variants in a never ending loop that will never end, keeping immune responses suppressed and dependent upon boosters forever. Such a craze theory isn’t looking so conspiratorial anymore.

I sold everything but my BITO calls, including my 15% position in TZA. On the last trading day of November, I’m not interested in risk. I know it sounds silly, since it’s just another day on the calendar — but I’m goal oriented and prefer to lock in my 7.5% gains for November rather than risk too much in a tape that can go either way. We might dump out here or rally furiously rally on any news that Omicron is weak and/or the present array of vaccines work.

(Insert laugh track)

I’m up 25bps early on and might nibble to a small degree later on.

Little known fact fucked face — Tuesday is the worst performing day of the week for the SPY during 2021.

Fuck that the NASDAQ showed today — it was a grim day for anyone other than FANG owners and the last day fade topped off what I suspected would be a ill-formed and narrow rally. I closed the session with 20% cash, 15% hedged via TZA against my longs.

I gained 0.55% for the session, extending my MTD gains to 7.25%, YTD to 226%.

The year has ended. The balance of the time left from now until Dec. 31st is pageantry.

Gains are being enjoyed exclusively in larger capped stocks and the overall indices are nothing more than circle jerks for AAPL, MSFT, FB, NFLX, NVDA and AMZN. Ignore them. In the real works the The Stocklabs 4000 index is DOWN 0.42%.

I am still 95% cash, intent on adding BITO calls because there is a blessed chance, mind you, that Bitcoin is on the verge of partaking in an enchanting run to $100,000. Or, none of that shit happens and I simply lose the money invested. I am perfectly fine with either outcome.

As for the markets are concerned, anything I do will be hedged with an inverse ETF.

I knew the rally would not stick and now we see exclusive strength in certain Tera caps, semis, and EV stocks, 100% shit tape. Breadth is at 30% and TZA is running higher.

I entered the session 105% invested with a 15% hedge in $TZA. Although I believe this tape is poor, I have to acknowledge there are certain areas of the market which is strong and that was enough to get me to sell everything but my BITO yolo calls.

I’m upwards of 95% cash now, higher by 0.55% today, in no rush to catch a trade, as my month is ending well +7.3%. I’ll likely nibble later on in the afternoon session.

What this is is more of the same, FAG-BOX trading in the IWM.

This is the most important set of numbers you’ll see this week.

Seasonal Returns for QQQ since 2008

Everyone expects things to happen right away — but it just isn’t in the cards for December. There are been years when December started off bad and then recovered and other years when it took off like a rocket ship, only to succumb to Xmas fatigue syndrome and fade into New Year’s. As you can see from the data above, it’s more or less a nothing-burger month — with the real movement reserved for January.

Futures are sharply higher tonight, alongside a +5% move in WTI — but I doubt it will hold. Or if you does hold, the rally will be narrow and traders will be churned up and spit out. The year is ostensibly over and November was an extreme bust — having absconded with a 6% gain only to later on get hooked and eviscerated by “market forces.”

January brings many things, but in this environ — forebodings loom. Look at the writing on the wall — a brand new OMICRON COVID strain sounding like a fucking Deception gone rogue intent on eliminating humanity. It is all but assured that when OMICRON sashays in the very gay NYC — it will be light’s out. If we lock down again, well now, I suspect extreme measures will be taken, including restrictions on domestic inter-state travel, in an effort to cajole people into injecting themselves with graphene razor blades. This is not unique to the United Steaks, but instead a prison planet — whereby all western and eastern nations are onboard with a medicinal attack on its populace in the name of safety. The last time we were sold a bag of goods for safety was post 9/11, which ushered in a wave of Draconian laws all designed to monitor and censor people who do not tow statist agi-prop. On top of that, “they” have constructed the American society via decades of successful promotion of a cancerous and toxic “culture” which has led us to this tipping point we find ourselves in, which is the incredible belief of violence being the preferred method of dealing with the problems we face now — all in the name of social justice and injustice and it is widely believed that a political solution to these problems is off the table. The only thing keeping both sides of slitting each other’s throats is the fabric of our economy — near full employment — fruitful for many and good enough to keep the animal spirits at bay.

Let’s hope for the best and perhaps the specter of OMICON being no more than a bad flu with SPIKED PROTEIN characteristics. I have been preparing for a “Dark Winter” for the better part of the last 20 years. We may in fact get it and get it soon, but not during the month of December.