Decided to Drink the Blood

I was hard pressed to push a net short position into CYBER MONDAY based off some scurrilous data regarding a new COVID variant. It all seems so jejune and the very last thing I want to be is uncreative.

I went all in but with a 15% TZA hedge, which at 3x IWM should afford me with a decent hedge should we collapse on Monday. I ended the session +85bps and +7% for November. We had been up 6.5% on the IWM in the first week of November and I warned you all that gains had been had, with very little to no case for more gains in light of the overall market outlook.

Barreling into December, I am concerned for markets and believe we will likely trade lower. But that doesn’t mean we’ll trade lower on Monday. I trade, very short term, and I win — all the time. That’s who I am.

Ciao.

ALERT: support IBankCoin fucked faces.

Merch

Two award winning best selling books

Stocklabs

Ciao again.

It could be over.

WTI -11%
US 10yr -14bps
DOW -1000
VIX +50%
Gold +0.8%
IWM -5%

This is your crash the markets starters pack, with all of the wildest moves imaginable. You have two questions for me, so I’ll get right to it.

How much is The Fly down today?

Answer: I was born to trade bear markets. I had 10% of my portfolio in TZA coming into today and 55% cash. I’m up 0.6% for the session, now all cash aside from my BITO yolo options trade.

Where will the markets go next?

This crash is happening during a holiday light half session. Very thin and very weak. We are all panicked because a MUG NU VARIANT OF COVID has been found in S Africa and fears of lockdowns are rampant. It will never end. The vaccines are for shit and the COVID business will mutate for as long as we live. What part about this don’t you understand? The other part about this is seasonality. Hello! When the sun is out and people enjoying vitamin D, COVID wanes. Now with winter coming, COVID is back. This is pattern recognition 101. I have not “vaccinated” myself; therefore I’m still able to use my brain.

Cyber Monday looms and we are diving into an oversold condition. You can see for sure and enjoy the comforts of having those details as a valued member of Stocklabs (cough).

My opinion on the matter is two fold. On one hand, we are dreadfully in a massive Federal Induced bubble with companies trading 150x sales. On the other, we never really crash do we? But again on the other, a little air coming out really helps Biden reduce inflation. See how transitory it is with a little help from Mother Market?

My sense is we are news dependent now and we’ll get weaker and weaker until the Fed signals they’ll suck our dicks again. We cannot afford a full lockdown again. Then again, online companies will profit. There are some winners in all this. In the end, this is a traders tape again, but one that requires careful treading. For now, cash is a very good option.

Time to stuff your fat fucking faces with bread and stuffing, washed down with thick brown gravy and copious amount of red wine.

On this day, Americans celebrate giving food to Indians near the water in exchange for their corn. We also, apparently, gave them fish/turkey to eat — alongside a cornucopia filled with small snacks and had a fine meal. Pumpkin pie! That was the first Thanksgiving, served hot more than 400 years ago — or 300 — no one really knows. Since then we’ve taken this tradition and kept to its centered purpose, to pack tightly into one house and SUPER SPREAD the COVID-19 virus.

Yours truly will be presiding over the stove, master chef at work, toiling hard to perfect his already perfect stuffing — alongside several other things. I enjoy to cook because it gives me something technical to do and because I’m not slothful and prefer industry over rest.

This is not a blog post to do with being thankful, or cornily (double entendre alert!) praising the merits of my fucking readers. No thanks to any of that. This is a thankless job and you readers have had it too good for too long. Fuck off. Nevertheless, I can see how you might be thankful — having chanced across this small corner of light in a sea of darkness — provided with sagely (double entendre alert!) advice during a place and time when the world is bat-shit nuts. On that point, I am NOT THANKFUL for this era I live in and certainly not thankful to Pfizer, Moderna and all of the other fucked faces trying to stick me with needles. Along that train of thought, I am NOT THANKFUL (all caps for psychotic emphasis) to most of the people on Twitter. I hate you. I truly do. Come to think of it, I’m definitely not thankful for a fuckload of things and often wonder if I am more thankful or less?

Being thankful for things denotes comfort and, dare I say, laziness. I want MOAR, which is why I trade like a banshee and scheme up new ways to make money at every chance afforded to me. Being thankful for shit is on par with saying “this is good enough for me.” INCORRECT SIR. I will not acquiesce to these small offerings and accept them as payment in full. I request MOAR.

Over here in Cary, NC the weather has moderated. It’s a comfy 55 degrees, warm enough to walk the dogs but cold enough also to place the cider to chill on the deck. My daughter is here from college and my eldest son will be in attendance too. This is the first year two of my children have left the house — leaving behind the youngest who is a good boy but with terroristic tendencies.

Alas, I could write forever and it would be a waste of my time and thoughts — frankly speaking. I wish you GOOD LUCK on this Thanksgiving Day and hope you find it to be acceptable. Comport yourselves like gentlemen, be sure to wind up your pocket watch (to tell the time moron) and don’t drink too heavily. A gentleman of any substance never permits others to see the cracked veneer of complete authorization patriarchal control.

Cheers.

Look at the retailers today and in recent days — absolutely fucked in the face. Many of you were obliged to be long retail into MUH BLACKENED FRIDAY because MUH EVERYONE IS GONNA SHOP. Once you stop being stupid, then you could be smart. The idea that you should do what is expected of you is of course slow and fat, also sad. Stop pretending you’re special and you have a “certain something” to predict share prices, based upon some Hollywood induces “magical feelings.” None of that shit is real in the real world. What ends up happening is you get lucky once or twice and then believe your own bullshit en route to zeroing out the account.

If you want to last in this game, and not come and go like a whore, attempt to diversify your holdings, moving them often, keeping abreast of trend changes, and being humble enough to know that when you bought XYZ it wasn’t personal and when it went down on you it also wasn’t personal. None of this shit matters, other than the bottom line result.

To be diversified doesn’t mean owning a bunch of stocks. It means owning different stocks in different industries. Try to mirror your portfolio against the S&P 500 sector weightings for starters, with these principal sectors: Basic Materials, Consumer Goods, Healthcare, Industrials, Services, Technology, and Utilities.

Once you figure that out and have a good feel for the best stocks in those respective industries, you’re on your way towards the highest probability path towards wealth creation — which is compounding returns over the next 20 years.

I know this isn’t a popular thing to say in an era with fucked faces on Discord chats with hordes of other fucked faces following each other in headlong a variety of micro capped stocks — to pump and to dump — while at the same time “diamond handing” and “Aping” into call options en route to one billion dollars of net worth. The more likely scenario doing that is fucking zero. Any questions?

Ok, need to get back to trading. The Fed is talking shit now, fears of stagflation.

At 4am I was down 30bps. When I checked in on my leveraged to the upside portfolio filled with dynamite sticks at 9:30am, I was down 2.3%, spearheaded lower by SOXL. I just sold it all for a gain of 0.66%.

While it’s possible we continue to ramp, I much prefer the fat middle. Don’t worry, I’ll trade and attempt to juice the returns. But as a prisoner of trends and someone who day trades, I’d be insane not to take these gains and count my blessings for this fucking chart.

In my experience, things tend to slow down a bit from 11-2pm, so consider this a pause and also an opportunity to be thankful.

More on this later.

I had trepidation. I started off the day bogged down heavy in losses thanks to ANF and URBN — 14% losers. I capsized into the morning crescendo, liquidating my longs and keeping my shorts — off 1.5%. As the markets turned lower, my fortunes reversed. Being greedy, I operated with precision throughout the session, mostly on the long side and closed +0.55% — now ALL IN — slightly leveraged with a bias for tech.

It’s important to note, markets do not collapse into National Festival.

As we embarks into turkey and gravy, I like my chances for a ramp. I would like to note the sudden horrific downside action in many retail names post earnings, such as JWN, URBN, ANF and BBY. Gross margins are getting gobble gobbled and it’s only a matter of time before we pull back and for good.

Nevertheless, instead of being a moron and basing my investments on lunatic predictions of the future, I’ll take it day by day.

For now, as it stands, all seems well.

I managed to erase my losses via some plucky trading and also my shorts, having sold out of FNGD and UVXY, but added to TZA. At the moment, I only own a 15% position in TZA and BITO calls — a dastardly combination but a combination nonetheless.

The trillion dollar question is — is this recent sell off in SAAS and other high valuation names a mere blip on the radar or something much much more. While my innate bearishness always pulls me towards the dark side, I cannot sit here and tell you “it’s over” with so much strength in banks and oil and bounces in numerous tech names. It is tempting to want to believe it’s over — but alas — when has it really ever ended?

We are in fact trading and I am in fact building a long list of names shot thru the chest the past week or two, in a sincere effort to attempt at timing the bottom. Stocklabs is NOT oversold and that signal might provide me with enough digital muscle to go headlong into this foray.

I was fucked in an array of different ways this morning, stemming from blow ups in ANF, URBN and a poorly timed sale in IONQ. I had some upside in WDC, NUE, and COP — but it didn’t make up the difference in a market ripping higher and me with 30% of my portfolio SHORT leveraged instruments. Since then, markets have suddenly, and all at once, given up much of their gains — but I do not and will not get too excited about it.

Again, during the National Festival week, it is atypical to expect markets to plunge lower. I see they sort of want to plunge lower with many cool stocks knifing down now — but I will not get excited.

Because whilst this is occurring in the IWM and “cool stocks”, there is strength in banks, coils and cryptos. I cannot, as I’ve said earlier, get too excited over the prospects that might leveraged instruments SHORT the market might appreciate in value — which they are — but I cannot let that taint my bias.

Down 60bps, cool as a cucumber.

Beneath the veneer of record highs for mega capped tech is a profound sickness in the market — weakness prevails in almost every facet of this tape, which also includes cryptos. Today was a telling moment and one that probably foreshadows stark times ahead — the crashing of stocks into Thanksgiving.

The damage was quite profound in tech, especially high valuation SAAS names, whilst strength was found in traditional safe havens like utilities and household cleaning stocks.

By Industry

I shed 118bps and am down another 55bps in AHs thanks to a fucking position in URBN. I am long but very hedged with large positions in UVXY, FNGD and TZA. The point was to slow things down and prevent being routed into Turkey Day. This drop is different because it’s coupled with a decline in junk bonds, notably visible in HYG and JNK.

This feels like it wants to swan dive and my only doubt lies in the seasonality factor, this being the “best week” of the year for stocks. I cannot help but to point out this is the 4th day down, a trait not seen since the harrowing days of September 2021. If we are to crash into Thanksgiving, behold a very grim and stark environment wrought with massive amounts of unwinding — for this bubble is like none other and built upon sand castles that is built upon swamp that is built upon air.

For some people the market has been bear for most of 2021. While I can’t complain, sitting near record highs in my trading and quant, I will admit the past 6 months have been challenging and if you weren’t adhering to Tera caps only, you found it exceedingly difficult to make any money.

Holy Hell… pic.twitter.com/0GHkMt9xw6

— Ralphie (@Greensheet6) November 22, 2021

Today is a perfect example of chicanery, still open and subsequent collapse in risk names. Look at SAAS for leadership.

I’ve been out all day and am down 90bps on the first day in what is dubbed the best week to trade stocks. This seasonality factor has kept me from hedging or getting aggressive. I have a largely mega cap portfolio of well known names and only seek 1-3% gains for the week. If I were to have wanted more, I’d be down 3-4% today.