TOP!

My last post, dubbed “The Semis Will Go Up Forever” was the actual top in this cycle. It was a half serious blog painting a wondrous picture of gay giraffes prancing about the migrant adorned American landscape amidst honeysuckle vines and cotton candy clouds — grass as green as dollars.

Throughout the session, I wobbled and weaved and eventually came to terms with who I really was: a permanent BEAR– sent to Earth to destroy the stock exchange and western finance as we know it today. I heaved into $TZA and $UVIX with alacrity, paired wonderfully with my semi longs and my declarative statement of truth and freedom via my $RUM position.

I can only hope for the eventual collapse of the NASDAQ, sparing only shares of $RUM — a dissident video platform of banned YouTubers broadcasting live their illegal viewpoints about how things are and how they ought to be.

I closed the session DOWN 10bps, a mere pinprick in a tape dreadfully malevolent and difficult to trade. I am now NET SHORT to the tune of 30% of assets with my dearest hopes pinned on the idea, but not limited to, a cracking of the stock market — reflective of the times we’re in and an important statement as to the wrongful direction we’re heading.

I am long $NVDA in the kids’ trust account from the 100s and have often thought about selling it — since the price is up so much. But then I am reminded of AI and all of the autonomous applications that will provide chip companies to grow in perpetuity. Long gone are the days of commoditized chip prices, price collapses caused by over-capacity at the foundries. We are now in a different realm, one that both appreciates chips and appreciates its prices too.

You can peer across the landscape towards names like $AVGO, $ASML, $LRCX, and $AMD and find nothing but splendor and decadence and things will continue to remain that way — all because of this new realm we’re all in now — a time and place where valuation temporarily disconnects from historical norms in replace of grandeur.

You can bellow about a bubble all you want but just know that your government is watching you closely and keeping tabs of your comments in both public and private venues — all thanks to the semiconductor industry — fighting hate speech and far right ideology one metric tonne of silicon at a go.

Yesterday before the close I really increased my risk profile heading into today, thinking perhaps it was time to get a real absurd rally to the upside, perhaps celebrating the end of the Biden regime.

Alas it looked promising as NASDAQ futures climbed above +100. But I ended up going completely to cash again, following yet another sell the open collapse, booking gains of +37bps. For the month, I’m now up nearly 5%, close enough to my goal of achieving a 6% gain per month because I fully intend to double my account in 2024.

In short, my risk profile is back to averse. The small caps are like lead balloons in this tape and every time they look to breakout — they collapse.

Larger caps are fine and generally make new highs daily — but they’re not nearly as fun.

I’ll get back into the market later this afternoon.

BIG tech is the preferred conduit for the pro-censorship bureau of truth that rules dominion over all western governments. We often hear about Chinese social scores and how oppressive they are, subjugating their people to wild ideas such as family, honor, and other conservative ideals. Yet here at home you cannot say anything untoward the elite and the rules always change and there is never fair warnings — just punishment. They lure you into their ghettos and then they judge you. Once you cross their lines, they punish you via “demonetization”, declaring “hate speech” to be undesirable.

Meanwhile, in the real world — hate speech is exactly what drives humanity forward. One way or another, hate for your enemy will be the only way to escape from the shackles of oppression.

Did George Washington not hate his enemies? Did General Grant not hate his southern brothers enough to commit genocide against them to “win the war?”

History is marked by violence and triumph, not peaceful protest.

Meanwhile, we have SHORT SQUEEZES underway in two platforms that actually let people say what they want and let the marketplace of ideas be the barometer: $RUM and $DWAC.

Rumble has been targeted by short sellers and cabal lovers since it came public. Up until recently the stock had been hammered to record lows, amidst a heavy cash burn rate and main stream Wall Street hated for the platform, all but assuring once their ~$250m cash haul is expended — the company is likely to burn all the way to zero.

The other is Trump’s Truth Social, rallying for obvious reasons.

Youtube is the most oppressive of all social media venues and Musk’s X initially fashioned itself as a platform for free speech — but since October 7th and criticism of Israel went viral on the platform — things have changed on the platform and many influential users have been banned and/or demonetized. This is the same racket Youtube has been imposing on its creators for many years and the question that seems relevant now is ‘is there a marketplace for a true free speech platform like $RUM or is the only form of media friendly enough for advertisers is one that is heavily curated?’

More on this point: are media platforms too dependent on advertising? Perhaps if $RUM and others like it charged users a modest monthly fee to access the platform, like $NFLX and cable, they could build upon a predictable revenue stream and disconnect entirely from the banks who seek to control them.

A minor retracement day — nothing to get too upset over. I see the US 10yr is +5bps again and now people are losing their shit. The closer we get to the prime home sales time the more anxious Wall Street will become over the specter of a FULL BLOWN COLLAPSE. Last year we thought the rates might have a deleterious effect — but it didn’t and because of that housing stocks boomed. Let’s see how people are fairing this year, after absorbing an entire year of high rates.

One could only surmise there will be, at some point, EXTREME tolls to be paid — people tossed out from their homes into the gutter for missed payments. The rates are TOO GOD DAMNED HIGH. Does anyone else see this as a problem OR is it just me?

I’ve been listing all day, down 42bps for the session. I do not have the testicular fortitude to sell short mid-afternoon. We are likely to see 30 green candles into the close today, as it is customary in this market to do so.

We are in this repetitious cycle of false collapses, fake bad news, real bad news that does nothing, deluded people clamoring for something substantial to happen and meanwhile NOTHING HAPPENS but the semis continue to reach record highs and the people from the Amazon come streaming into the country INVITED by the most evil people in the world. There isn’t a single person in power willing to stop it and we are of course satiated by the length of our live’s coupled with the wee bit of comfort we enjoy — thanks entirely to the record high stock market. In a generation or two, the nation will be torn asunder amidst rapes, murders and pillaging throughout all urban centers — the very testaments that proved we were a great society will be our downfall all because of compromised men in power were blackmailed into compliance and no one was there to remove them.

In the end, people get what they deserve. If Americans are so weak as to allow the Barbarian Hordes rum over them — perhaps it’s a good thing the HAN CHINESE are ascending and will create a better world order than the bullshit we have now.

Even if I tried I could not lose money in this tape or any tape for that matter. Some of you might be really good at flipping burgers or flapped jacks, or perhaps washing windows or even polishing shoes. This is my trade and over the many decades of real life experience battling in the markets, I have taken on a grizzled visage — one of experience and wisdom — fully capable of surveying the market place and winning on a consistent basis.

This is the first day in nearly a fortnight that I didn’t feel on the verge of instantaneous death, a byproduct of the COVID virus. However terrible it is, I am immensely grateful for hating my government so much I didn’t trust them when they shopped their vaccines around in 2020 and 2021. For all of those who DIED SUDDENLY and are reading this in the afterlife, find solace in knowing you were just a fool and could not be saved.

Fools and women are tricked all the time, made to believe in fanciful things — told direct lies and hear nothing but truth. In some regard, these are high trust characteristics — but on the other a grave naivety because they believe the advice from the people who hate them most.

You are nothing more than useful cudgels in a millennia blood feud that will only be settled through war and violence. The political solutions have been expended and the middle ground is a mirage — a wayward pit falling deep into the fires of discord, vaccines, gay propaganda, radicalized hatred and a godless consumerism bordering on worship of the devil.

In other news, I am rather bullish on the tape for tomorrow’s opening salvo and have positions in very high priced stocks for another morning rally.

I made +112bps for the session, up 4.46% for the month of January.

I did warn you not to get involved with all that, chasing stocks in a car filled with dynamite heading towards the sun. For the love of God, high beta stocks were up 5.7% by 10am. What did you think was going to happen? Since then, stocks have COLLAPSED and the $SPY is barely +25bps.

The high beta index I keep alluding to is inside Stocklabs, a pastiche of stocks with beta higher than 1.5x. That index is now +2.6%. Now it’s important to note being +260bps is a GOOD DAY and if markets closed here it would still be a GOOD DAY. But it isn’t any good for day trading, since we have overhead resistance now filled with MORONS who chased are are now TRAPPED.

Even so, I started to nibble back stocks after going to cash this morning, +111bps and 65% cash. I intend to acquire more stocks before the session ends and barring a full collapse — I will most likely do so without a hedge.

The overall situation is BULLISH, albeit the intra-day chicanery is frustrating and rookies will be tricked and fooled into folly. These things happen.

The set up was obvious. Market had already been strong in spite of rates going up. But today rates dropped 5bps and markets absolutely busted out, led higher by rate sensitive high beta stocks +3.2%. For me, that’s too much to buy into and if I’m long with high beta stocks +3.22%, I sell.

Since I was fully long into today, I liquidated all and locked in gains of +113bps. I don’t have any desire to make more and will not be lured back into the market until late afternoon.

My gains are near +4.5% for January, a success. I won’t do anything to spoil it and since I’m not a greedy man, I’ll re re-enter the market cautiously, wade into it methodically like a scientist, calibrating the perfect portfolio for tomorrow’s opening salvo.

$NVDA is now worth $500b more than $META, on the heels of Amazon. I’d like to lament on here wondering how I missed it — but I didn’t. I am long $NVDA from the low $100s in my children’s trust accounts — because I finally caved into the math.

These giant winners do not come out of nowhere. There are core fundamentals that drive them, specifically rev growth, free cash flow and gross margins. But in this era, one of the most important prerequisites for becoming a 10 bagger is you already need a market cap in the tens of billions if not higher. Only the super capitalized companies are able to scale these days, with very few exceptions. I did see scans inside Stocklabs in attempt to peer into the future, to find the next $NVDA. I already know what is it — and I’ll tell you now so you can read it and ignore it and then come back to this post in 5 years lamenting about the what could have beens, declaring yourself a loser.

IT IS $UBER.

At any rate, here is my special fundamentally driven screen results, sorted by companies with market caps over $50b.

$NVO, $ASML, $NOW, $UBER, $BKNG, $PANW, $MELI, $ANET, $CRWD, $SNOW and $LULU.

That’s it.

Below these are stocks with caps between $10-50b — really scraping the bottom of the barrel here. These are some of the notables.

$DXCM, $FTNT, $DDOG, $SQ, $ZS, $TTD, $HUBS, $MDB and $NET.

It’s basically the who’s who of active trading stocks — and for a reason. Wall Street already knows the winners and the future winners. I forced to choose 3 of the stocks above to become a trillion dollar company — I’d choose $UBER, $ASML and $NOW.

You were all warned of an impending rally yesterday. I told you to get 100% long and not to be fooled — but alas I can only do so much as to direct you to the water. I haven’t figured out a way to force you to drink.

After enduring early losses of 60bps due to an errant $TNA position gone astray, I concluded a COVID afflicted week +49bps in easy and genteel positioning — as market chugged higher almost continuously from the opening dump.

I just got back from $SHAK where I gobbled down a double cheeseburger, fries, and a custard. I am afforded this luxury because I am now attempting to gain 10lbs, after cutting for several months and shedding 17lbs. I hope to complete my recovery this weekend and back to the fucking gym on Monday, initiating my first creatine cycle in years — wholly fixated on strength training with the stated goal of being able to crack humans bones in half with my bare hands.

For the year, the market has been dour — highlighted by high beta stocks down 11%. We are only saved by the “Mag 7” son of a bitches up around 7% YTD.

As per usual, we are in a traders market and I am the very best trader you’ll ever come across in your entire pathetic lives.

My portfolio returns mid-month January, 2024.