ANOTHER WAR LOOMS

I am not flippe flopping again to bearish. I am simply cautious. I went to cash at the open and just started buying stocks again now, opting to not trade and chop myself up to pieces. Some of you complain about the tenor of my trading and when I slow it down by not trading — I am accused of being an Uber or a Doordash work slave.

I was expecting to be up around 60bps this morning because I had $SMCI into an earnings beat; but when markets opened up I only harvested 20bps and that was my warning to step away. More often than not, it’s a good idea to go to cash after the open and then dive back in later in the afternoon.

After all, the proof is in the pudding, with my gains being superior to yours, always calm and collected and rarely. if ever sad about my performance.

As of right now, I have 60% cash, some risk averse stocks, some $ZIM and $SMCI and a $SQQQ hedge. My goal is to have a low beta in order to secure the +5.2% gain for January.

On the geopolitical front, we have a war looming with Iran over the drone strike that killed 3 American soldiers. We can argue about why Americans were there in the first place and how the poor Iranians were just trying to get us to stop bombing Gazans. It will do us no good, as we are not in positions of power to stop these things. All we can do it helplessly look on as our leaders draw us ever closer to an apocalyptic scenario — devils really. I suspect any incursion into Iran will GIGA-SPIKE crude, so be on the lookout for that and it’s probably a good idea to be long oil just in case. Gold and $BTC are back on the menu as well.

Look at me — successful yet again — up 133bps for the session, fully composed and collected in the demeanor one would expect from an un-frienzied man of extreme achievement. There was never a second during this tape in which I was not fully in control.

Granted, I was buttressed and buoyed by the obscene melt up in High Beta stock, who leapt ahead by 500bps — ending the sesh at the highs and with the cocks of bears laid strewn across the pavement.

Rates COLLAPSED by 8bps today and that’s all we needed to jimmy higher. However, due to the fanatical demeanor of this run, I switched back to very high priced stocks in order to avoid the Third Estate machinations and avoid any large drawdown into the final days of January.

I am up nearly 5% for the month and my riskiest bet is $RUM. I envision shares of Rumble tripling from present levels, laying waste to the plots and schemes of the globohomo — a cadre of people who are waging war against the free people of the west.

At any rate, it was a whimsically wondrous session with gains for all who went long and had the eternal fortitude to remain long in spite of the deleterious news and subsequent spikes in rates. It seems everything is calm again and Wall Street is pricing in more of the same, which is good for stocks because the money supply is ample and wealth at record highs. People love stocks because of recency bias and they want more money to buy things: homes, jewels, clothes, and cars. We are living during a period of wanton excess, especially for those keen enough to rig the game in their favor.

I cannot in good faith offer any bearish commentary after a day like today, other than to remind you pride comes before the fall and although the Sun Also Rises — it also sets.

See you catamites tomorrow.

Mrs. Fly has me undertaking projects in my youth I’d rage aloud in bitter scorn over — as it would take away my most valuable time — time from which I could use in a professional undertaking to earn more money. However, I am now open to the idea of wasting my time on idol projects, becoming an amateur carpenter and laying down tiles. Doing these tasks is of course TRIVIAL and any moron can do it. However, to do it right, like anything else — it requires experience and I never wanted to spend my time learning something that merely saved me money — since I’d much prefer to pay someone to do it and use my time to make money. As to the reason why I am receptive now, I feel lit lies in the fact that I really do not feel like dealing with bastard contractors in the house and their fucking trivialities.

My wife truly loves DIY projects, something I truly loathe. But at this point in my life, I believe I loathe contractors much more.

I haven’t traded much today, other than sell everything by 11:30am. I sold $RUM for a fantastic gain — but kept it in my strategic portfolio, in spite being up 17% from cost.

My daily gains are as follows:

Trading +66bps
Quant +100bps
Strategic +150bps
Tesla/Uber Focus +150bps

I am not a genius for these achievements, as High Beta stocks are higher by 2.3% for the session. YTD or MTD, whichever you prefer, we have an wide chasm between the tera caps and risky trading names. The MAG 7 are +9%, whilst the high beta index is -8.8%. It might be alluring to you, the contrarian loser, to wade into down stocks now and heave heavily into small caps. But this, like many other decisions you make, is most likely folly.

If you glanced at me trading yesterday or a member of Stocklabs inside of our BASED live trading room — you might’ve thought ‘this man is ruining himself and on the verge of blowing up’ — but the exact opposite occurred. I bogged myself heavily int losses of the largess varietal — down by 2.2% at the session lows. But instead of acquiescing to the unfavorable easterly winds, I leaned in and bought more — reducing my losses to just 1.2% for yesterday’s session.

Overnight, it appeared I was to be dispatched by the morning, as futures languished lower and my exposure was 135% of equity. But as fate would have it, as it always does, I ended up wantonly victorious — closing the session +55bps.

My bias is for freedom — long $RUM and some other names — traded $DWAC today and made money twice in it. I get the sense that the tides have shifted and very soon dark clouds will bellow atop the Biden administration and very soon, once deposed, prisons will be filled with registered democrats and others of their ilk — men and women who have worked to destroy the nation shall be destroyed themselves.

Trials will of course be for show.

I’m optimistic about the future and that ought to be priced in — Pax Americana armed to the hilt — angered and seeking justice. Perhaps in a best case scenario we can annex northern Mexico and keep our political prisoners there.

Food for thought.

See you catamites on Monday.

I was 135% leveraged long into today, almost certain I’d get tossed into the fires of discord and torched — but I was spared. The Gods looked down at me and showed me favour. I extricated myself from this WHORE of a tape +33bps, now all cash.

My biggest gainer was in $RUM, the freedom network. I still own it for my strategic account and feeeeeel it’s worth $15 by summer.

I have nothing else for you now, other than to inform you that I’ve been saved, selected by the Gods to preside over the market wantonly successful.

Since it’s Friday and I don’t feel like spoiling the gift horse, I’ll remain out of stocks till later this afternoon.

Good Sirs —

I’d like t skip today’s market discussion in favor for something that has been vexing me for some time now: The Great Lie of the 1929 stock market crash and subsequent “Great Depression.”

Horrible Trader, 1929

A great man once said “History is written by the zebra for the zebra” and this wisdom places itself in the center of the propaganda that encapsulates the market crash of 1929 and the economic depression thereafter. Before I delve into the details, I’d first like to illuminate the fact that wealthy people did quite well during the 1930s and it was the poors, aka the zebra, and bad traders who got fleeced in 1929.

Let’s examine the details.

S&P 500 returns from 1928-1938

So let me get this straight. The market ROSE 43% in 1928 and fell 8% in 1929 and I am supposed to feel sorry for some losers who zeroed the fuck out and tossed themselves out from windows? An 8% decline isn’t worthy of a footnote, let alone the endless books and movies decrying it to be such a horrible crash and the beginning of the end for America.

It was so bad, in 1930 the market fell a harrowing 25%. Can you believe it? To be fair, the -43% COLLAPSE in 1931 is certain cause for alarm, especially after the 1930 drubbing. But as you can see in 1932 markets consolidated and TOOK THE FUCK OFF in 1933, achieving a 50% return, pausing again in 1934, and then set on fire again in 1935 and 1936, returning +46% and +32%, respectively.

The stories we had been told were lies. In fact, dare I say, we’ve been through worse markets. Did oil ever trade NEGATIVE $37bbl in 1929? I think not.

Check out what we went through from 2000-2002:

2000: -37%

2001: -33%

2002: -37%

In 2008, we lost 42%.

My point is — the very worst stock markets in history were temporary declines and if you were trading back then — they’d be easy to navigate. Granted, I got caught flat in 2000 and wiped myself out clean — wrote two books about the ordeal. I was sad when it happened and I cried like a bitch when I lost it all. But I was very young then and inexperienced. I deserved to lose it all because I was a moron. Morons deserve to lose until they become smart.

Nothing that occurred from 1928-1938 is remotely interesting, or noteworthy. It looked like a normal tape, ups and downs — fortunes made and dashed. Easy stuff.

Back when Romney was trying to defeat the anointed one — a layup trade based upon the whims of the polls was coal. The “clean coal” fad was in full swing and Romney made promises to keep churning out the black in spite of ecological risks. I vividly recall banking coin in that trade.

During every election cycle there are pro democrat and pro republican platforms that move in sync with polls. Barreling into the 2024 elections, censorship and government bootlicking is on the menu — with Google as the elitist incumbent drawing in all of the ad dollars from trans-aggressive corporations like $TGT and $LMT and the dissident right upholding the tenets of absolute speech bleeding out losses in companies like $RUM.

I cannot think of a higher beta play than $RUM, especially since the censorship of social media, including X, is pervasive and contrary to the spirit of a free republic. The idea that some blue haired lesbian should be able to dictate what is permissible to be monetized or seen by the masses is exactly where Youtube is now and every single person on the left is on board with that — because freedom of thought and ideas is dangerous to their world views.

Logic does not exist on the hard left, only feelings and sentiments conjured up in fairytale book fashion — fixed by the bubble they live in — denizens of ill repute — crowded cities filled with the very worst people ever born.

Both $DWAC and $RUM are, perhaps, the only plays for free speech this election cycle. I am long $RUM.

As soon as the market opened I panicked and closed out my shorts. The rates are down and my semis are flying. I don’t see any near term benefit for being obstinate about it all. I know just yesterday I was the biggest bear on the planet, sent here directly to destroy the stock exchange. But today I am just an ordinary bull who happens to also be long shares of $RUM and hating it — off by 5.5% for the session. I knew I should’ve sold it when I could; but I liked the whole idea of “BASED MEDIA” which is probably more likely to go to ZERO and completely shut down than thrive.

The simple fact of the matter is — the right wingers are mostly without money, poor, and haven’t any money to finance project like the tech rich left. The paradigm of wealth has shifted dramatically over the past 30 years and all of the money and influence is now embedded with the government friendly NATO loving libtard left.

Because of my ideologies, I am down 70bps for the session, still bedraggled lower by shares of $RUM, which I really hate right now but hold on only because of my stubbornness. That is likely not to last long.

In summary, I became a bear too soon and have since TRANSITIONED BACK to a bull, fitting in with everyone else — buying tech stocks and rooting for the bad guys.

My last post, dubbed “The Semis Will Go Up Forever” was the actual top in this cycle. It was a half serious blog painting a wondrous picture of gay giraffes prancing about the migrant adorned American landscape amidst honeysuckle vines and cotton candy clouds — grass as green as dollars.

Throughout the session, I wobbled and weaved and eventually came to terms with who I really was: a permanent BEAR– sent to Earth to destroy the stock exchange and western finance as we know it today. I heaved into $TZA and $UVIX with alacrity, paired wonderfully with my semi longs and my declarative statement of truth and freedom via my $RUM position.

I can only hope for the eventual collapse of the NASDAQ, sparing only shares of $RUM — a dissident video platform of banned YouTubers broadcasting live their illegal viewpoints about how things are and how they ought to be.

I closed the session DOWN 10bps, a mere pinprick in a tape dreadfully malevolent and difficult to trade. I am now NET SHORT to the tune of 30% of assets with my dearest hopes pinned on the idea, but not limited to, a cracking of the stock market — reflective of the times we’re in and an important statement as to the wrongful direction we’re heading.

I am long $NVDA in the kids’ trust account from the 100s and have often thought about selling it — since the price is up so much. But then I am reminded of AI and all of the autonomous applications that will provide chip companies to grow in perpetuity. Long gone are the days of commoditized chip prices, price collapses caused by over-capacity at the foundries. We are now in a different realm, one that both appreciates chips and appreciates its prices too.

You can peer across the landscape towards names like $AVGO, $ASML, $LRCX, and $AMD and find nothing but splendor and decadence and things will continue to remain that way — all because of this new realm we’re all in now — a time and place where valuation temporarily disconnects from historical norms in replace of grandeur.

You can bellow about a bubble all you want but just know that your government is watching you closely and keeping tabs of your comments in both public and private venues — all thanks to the semiconductor industry — fighting hate speech and far right ideology one metric tonne of silicon at a go.