It’s a Stupid Business

Every once in awhile, I like to lie down during the afternoon, in order to clear my mind and focus on ideas. I concoct strategies and run numbers, calculating potential profit and losses and stress scenarios, whereby I might wipe myself the fuck out. Well, as I was lying there (on the couch) just 10 minutes ago, enduring the never-ending spate of heart palpitations that plague me, it dawned on me that the line of work I am in is killing me, literally.

I mean, some of you have day jobs as waitresses or sanitation workers. My job is this, every single day, for the rest of my fucking life, until I move to the mountainous regions of Puma Punku of course. Nothing about managing money is easy, even during the easy times. There is always mystery, like “what the fuck will happen next” type of shit. It’s a never-ending battle between idiots and morons, trying to hit one another with gravity hammers to take all of the money.

While this is happening, Mrs. Fly is gingerly buying shit online, planning out our next vacation, where I will endure pain and suffering due to information withdrawal. Because of these facts, there is NO WAY any of my children will enter the field of finance. Don’t get me wrong. There are perks, all to do with lots of money and whores, if you so choose that lifestyle. However, at the end of the day, life shouldn’t be lived in front of a fucking computer screen, rooting for nerds to manipulate the market, while making fun of other nerds in bow ties. None of these people are cool. They’re fucking misfits, obsessed with their own reflection, who’d sell short their mothers life expectancy for a quick buck.

I am 100% certain my sour attitude has something to do with the fact that my stocks are getting smashed into small pieces and tossed into flaming barrels of garbage. Nevertheless, in true dork fashion, I am eagerly awaiting the “reflex rally” so that I can make more money, enhancing my AI personality traits, enabling me to superficially suck the blood out of my enemies heads, like a vampire on speed.

Putting the mathematical precision of The PPT aside, here are the reasons why I believe we will rally.

1. Dollar is not rallying hard.

2. The decline in oil is moderate.

3. AAPL has been green all day, alongside a slew of tech names.

4. Silver is strong, a key barometer of risk.

5. TLT is down.

6. Financials are firming up.

7. Dr. Bernanke is watching.

Developing…

Greece will be tossed into an elevator shaft, forced to take billions and fuck its populace, in order to prevent write downs at French  and German banks. Portugal is a stupid country and will be told so by snobbish poets vacationing from France. And, Benjamin Bernanke is going to empty his pipe ashes on the heads of those who bet against him.

My top picks are CLF, OXY, WNR, CVI and OPEN.

Why do I like the refiners so much, specifically WNR?

Well, for one, 321 crack spreads are north of $25 per barrel, up from $10 earlier this year. Secondly, WNR refines crude from El Paso and sources from Eagleford shale and Cushings. With regards to Eagleford, it’s the next big thing. All of the players are buying up acreage and WNR is in the sweet spot for getting its crude. The major advantage lies in the lack of proper pipeline infrastructure from Eagleford to the Gulf. At the present, there is no pipeline and one is not expected to be built for at least another 2 years. Because of the logistics, Eagleford crude sells at a significant discount to Brent crude. That’s the kicker. As long as the spread between WTI and Brent remains high and WNR can resist the temptation to hedge themselves out of a boom, they will mint money.

Frankly, I cannot think of an easier play.

Let me be clear: I am looking for a sharp relief rally, not some long term nirvana. After I get my spike, I might rejigger and get the fuck out.

NOTE: I’ve been watching TNAV go up since $13.50 and have not bought a single share. I hate myself for it.

Shit like this surfaces. This is knee slapping funny.

Jim “fuck America sideways with a Bow Tie” Rogers

In order to continue my barrage of things Jim Rogers might say, via my Twitter account, I designed 7 questions that I endeavor to ask Mr. Rogers, because I am most interested in his humble opinions.

1.  Jim, I’ve read and heard about it on CNBC that gold is basically worthless and that the preferable place to preserve wealth is in the U.S. dollar. Your thoughts?

2. Jim, knowing what you know now, seeing how the U.S. bailouts worked, would you support future bailouts of the same magnitude in order to preserve our modern financial system?

3. Jim, would you compare the recent unchecked surge in commodities to the dot com boom of the late nineties? If so, why?

4. Jim, you were once quoted as saying “Dr. Bernanke should be fired” and “he is an idiot.” Seeing that the stock market has done so well under his tutelage,  do you regret those words and would you like to offer Dr. Bernanke a public apology?

5. Jim,  we have interviewed some world renowned money managers here and many of them said to sell commodities and buy bank stocks. What do you think of that trade?

6. Jim, you’ve been a big supporter of China for many years. Seeing the vast amount of fraud being purported by Chinese companies listed in the U.S. as of late, how do you feel about aligning yourself with a bunch of crooks and thieves?

7. Jim, would you buy U.S. real estate right now? If so, what do you think of buying homes, renovating them, and flipping them for short term profits, as an alternative to saving money in a zero interest rate environment?

You have all forgotten who you are dealing with. We are not talking about Alan Greenspan or the fucking dork Volcker. We have a modern day Charles Hamlin at the helm, Ben Bernanke, and his pimp hand is very, very strong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will peak at 50,000 before he is done with the dollar, grinding it into dust, similar to what I will do to many of you next week.

You know it was a mistake holding shorts over the weekend, right? You know Ben is sitting by the fireside, smoking his pipe, saying “I’m gonna get them bitches on Monday.”

Five consecutive weeks lower, coupled with a slew of front page stories, deriding the economy, on Drudge equals melt up and “shut the fuck up time” for the world equity markets next week.

The power apparatus couldn’t care less about food inflation. They subsidize via food stamps and can easily hedge off that risk. There is no fucking way they let this small snowball avalanche. I realize many of you men, dressed in yellow velcro jumpsuits, are short the markets, based on logic. But we haven’t traded on logic for three motherfucking years now. I’d like you to explain why now is the time to kill it all.

Back to my bottle of wine to drink away the agony and pain of the +54,000 jobs number. Oh, the fucking horror.

This losing week marks the 5th consecutive week of losses for the Dow, something not seen since 2004. For those of you wondering “what the fuck is going on”, hard is what is going on. Life isn’t always easy and the stock market is the quintessential “fuck you, you’re dead” puzzle.

I know you are over there, pulling on a homosexual cigarette, declaring victory over Le Fly. However, as I blow smoke in your face from my Cohiba, I insist “the stage is still set” for a melt up, set to begin on Monday. Starting with Monday’s trading session, I will begin to grind your bones into dust.

It is not a surprise to see the SPY close at exactly 1,300; because that’s what happens when the stage is set. We’ve endured 5 weeks of misery and Bernanke is set to speak on Monday. Over the weekend, the euro fuckers will bail out Greece, effectively destroying the idea of rational thinking—making stocks trade wildly higher, as if coordinated by bi-polar clowns.

Nevertheless, I ended the session down 0.5%, mostly due to WNR. It’s worth mentioning, crack spreads went up all week. One day people will pay attention to the answers and quit asking questions.

In other words, yes, I’m still getting my bow tie on, long inflation related equities in great abundance.

Should the unemployment rate continue to tick higher, will the Fed do QE3?

If so, how will it affect commodities, currencies and equity markets?

Feel free to kill each other over differing opinions.

In between of all of your gloating, I want you dicksuckers to acknowledge several things. Several.

1. My call is for higher stocks by Tuesday.
2. I haven’t sold a single share of anything.
3. The day is young.
4. Shut up.

I am down a staggering and appalling 0.6% right now. You should not misconstrue my general observations for market position. Again, stop thinking with your own pockets, for “The Fly” is able to hold his breadth a long, long time. I do not fold in the face of adversity, so go fuck a can of corn.

I find it funny that the republicans did a press conference to milk the disappointing jobs report. HEY ASSHOLES: you had 8 years and you fucking nearly destroyed this country, with your asinine spending. These politicians are like whores, always fucking their constituents. I do not want to hear the left vs. right shit. Plainly, that sort of jargon is for ideologues without brains. Get it done and shut the fuck up about it.

Last year to the day, the markets were struggling, as the economic data worsened–post flash crash. I recall saying “a double dip recession is all but a foregone conclusion.” Well, that turned out to be wrong. Today the jobs reports is scaring the shit out of people because only 54,000 jobs were added, following several months of 200,000+. Well, color me retarded, but +54k is not exactly -300,000.

The response is negative because investors do not know if the slow down will be a hard landing or soft. Moreover, most agree the Fed will not initiate QE3. So, we have no babysitters and no one to give us allowance money. Couple that with the fact that our President is more interested in golfing than creating structural change in the economy, one might surmise we are in for a bit of trouble.

So now everyone is selling equities because of uncertainty. It is easy to get bearish. I’ve tried to bet against this tape several times over the past 3 years and made money only once: flash crash. The persistent and uncompromising trend is: get scared, sell, melt up, chase stocks higher.

As for protecting assets, although I believe we trade higher, do not underestimate investor desire to reduce risk. There is plenty of soft money out there sloshing around, loyal to nothing but the wind. Get to a point where you can accept risk and draw a line in the sand and commit to it.

More later.