Last year to the day, the markets were struggling, as the economic data worsened–post flash crash. I recall saying “a double dip recession is all but a foregone conclusion.” Well, that turned out to be wrong. Today the jobs reports is scaring the shit out of people because only 54,000 jobs were added, following several months of 200,000+. Well, color me retarded, but +54k is not exactly -300,000.
The response is negative because investors do not know if the slow down will be a hard landing or soft. Moreover, most agree the Fed will not initiate QE3. So, we have no babysitters and no one to give us allowance money. Couple that with the fact that our President is more interested in golfing than creating structural change in the economy, one might surmise we are in for a bit of trouble.
So now everyone is selling equities because of uncertainty. It is easy to get bearish. I’ve tried to bet against this tape several times over the past 3 years and made money only once: flash crash. The persistent and uncompromising trend is: get scared, sell, melt up, chase stocks higher.
As for protecting assets, although I believe we trade higher, do not underestimate investor desire to reduce risk. There is plenty of soft money out there sloshing around, loyal to nothing but the wind. Get to a point where you can accept risk and draw a line in the sand and commit to it.
More later.
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