You have all forgotten who you are dealing with. We are not talking about Alan Greenspan or the fucking dork Volcker. We have a modern day Charles Hamlin at the helm, Ben Bernanke, and his pimp hand is very, very strong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will peak at 50,000 before he is done with the dollar, grinding it into dust, similar to what I will do to many of you next week.
You know it was a mistake holding shorts over the weekend, right? You know Ben is sitting by the fireside, smoking his pipe, saying “I’m gonna get them bitches on Monday.”
Five consecutive weeks lower, coupled with a slew of front page stories, deriding the economy, on Drudge equals melt up and “shut the fuck up time” for the world equity markets next week.
The power apparatus couldn’t care less about food inflation. They subsidize via food stamps and can easily hedge off that risk. There is no fucking way they let this small snowball avalanche. I realize many of you men, dressed in yellow velcro jumpsuits, are short the markets, based on logic. But we haven’t traded on logic for three motherfucking years now. I’d like you to explain why now is the time to kill it all.
Back to my bottle of wine to drink away the agony and pain of the +54,000 jobs number. Oh, the fucking horror.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2texZ6EmBgk 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I will pull the Clam’s sleigh from Sunday night Asian open, through Europe, to NYC circa 9:30 am Monday.
Get out your motherfuckin’ stockings!!!!
Vice, vise…oh who the fuck cares, we’re going down like Linda Lovelace before this is over. I ain’t got time for that now. Pass the bottle, Jack, I can’t get loose without my juice.
DOW 50,000, clown and lion shooting out of cannon at the same time style.
50,000? Wow, that makes the DOW 20,000 call by the guy with the squirrel’s nest on his head look penny-ante. I assume that’s pricing in a gang-rape of Uncle Buck? I’d like to see the loaded cannon puked up by a Bearded Clam just before it launches the clown and lion. And then an army of munchkins (in blue blazers) sweeping up the bits.
Oh, and about your lawn…it’s Nature’s way of telling you something’s wrong. I exhort you, once again, to convert it to vegetables. You can plant them while still holding your martini glass, if you do it right.
And now I will wait to see if any of the monkeys in this madd’ing crowd can name all three of the tunes I have referenced in this post.
So you want me to convert my front lawn into a fucking carrot field? Are you mad? Where do you think I live, Idaho?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: lawns are such 20th Century, blue blazer, Age of Surplus artifacts. That shit is done. The smart kids are all growing their own food, so that they shall not starve when there are no tomatoes to be bought, not even for $100 each. There’s a lot of failure on that road to success, so better to start now. You’re the type to be the first on your block to have the hip style, right? Show ’em how it’s done. Playing paper commodities is all fine and dandy while the well still flows, but one day that bitch is gonna run dry and the only commodities that matter will be the ones in your hot little hands.
I am a gentleman. part of NYC aristocracy. I will not be growing carrots in my front lawn. I will buy them from Whole Foods.
Translation:
Tried to garden once. Planted a bag of baby carrots and two bags of frozen peas. Got nothing.
“The smart kids” are stealing the bounty form their neighbors’s lawns at around 2am. Why spend all that time growing and cultivating when you can be stealing? The neighbors become serfs while the kids grow up to be banksters.
In my neighborhood, hoodlum activities such as those, will normally result in a backside full of buckshot. Either that or if they are unlucky, mauling or removal of limbs by the pet bear.
What happened to the VIX when QE1 and QE2 played out? As you remember holding VXX, It put a floor under the market and the VIX went straight down. Guess what happens when the floor gets removed, ie QE?
The VIX goes back to parity.
Fly, stop daydreaming
the dollar has bottomed and is not going to break those lows
the leaders of the bull are lagging
We can go up Monday, but Tues, Weds ect we go down. The PPT is short term
the trend is down.
We shall see who grinds who’s bones into dust then, shall we?
To make bread.
I have rarely anticipated a Monday so well
In fact I am so excited I am guessing at numbers. market +2% and CCJ +4.5%, now I have said it. do not mark my words.
CCJ?! ROFL. Have fun with that.
I will have fun with that. So much so that I have given up jogging for skipping! I am the CCJ chearleader! Woot woot! CCJ on my varsity jacket!
Great post, indeud and agreud.
Excuse me…
The bears are wearing the bow ties right now. I will offer you a hat tip after banking huge profits this week.
The reality here is you bulls may get a temprary bounce but your bull market is toast.
DOW 50,000? Hmmm….Let’s go back to Japan and see how that worked out when they trashed their currency…..The Nikkei went down from 39,000 to what??? 9k now?
If the dow hits 50k then we will be eating dog food as we vote in Hitler2 as a result of a currency collapse.
There is no way out and the trend will be lower as QE ends. If QE3 is announced the currency is toast..
That is all sir.
I snatch bow ties from any bear who dares to wear one.
A true gentleman would never snatch anyone’s bow tie. I might be tempted to hit you with my cane if you attempted such a thing……
The trouble with being a bear is that bad news makes you happy. It’s fucked up and unhealthy. I know because I am one.
Lol, great post. It’s politics and the misery index now…we go lower.
I’m still trying to figure out how do you have this type of music in your category. I always heard the fly was some lame nerd.
You heard that from your loser friends. The Fly grew up in Brooklyn and would smash your face into the subway tracks for saying such things.
Now it Smells like hope with a faint odor of fear and a distinct aroma of naivete on these boards.
Really?
Try outright confidence
You’re all mad….who says we go anywhere but sideways…until the next typhoon/earthquake/tsunami…wait a second…isn’t California due to fall into the Ocean this year?…Nevada real estate off the chart
yeah, Nevada!
And fuck Utah.
I am up-my-ass long and still holding my 3X S&P (UPRO), which, so far, has proven to be a weapon of self-destruction The big sign for an up day was flashing on Friday–the dollar was down. Everybody knows that when the dollars is down, the market is up–everybody but Friday’s fucking market.
The only things that could possibly keep this market down next week are if one of the PIIGS says, “Fuck you, EU”, or if the quant boys say, “We ain’t showing up to buy until everybody is screaming for QE3,” with their blood-suckiing bankster bosses whispering in their ears, “Where iss it, where iss it: my Precious, my Precious? It’s ours, it is, and we wants it.”
after reading all the posts here, makes me think fuck-it just put all my money in gold. w/ the fed resurve doubleing money supply out of .nutin honney
And how did gold do when inflation adjusted since 1980 when the money supply increased 1000%? It’s not about the money supply, it’s about capital concentrations and the reaction to such events which are based on confidence in political management of the money supply. The money moved into stocks from the 80s on which is why the stock market shot up in roughly a decade or two from 1,000 to 10,000. Which of course would suggest to buy gold if you believe defaults are going to occur, and gold will someday be the preferred investment not if “governments print money”, not if “governments will borrow money and inflation will occur”, but if “governments are fucked”
its obvious that the fly is nervous … buy the dips is over
He sounds like a spoiled brat kid begging his mom (the Fed) to come save him.
Free market capitalism at it’s finest.
The bulls argument of higher equity prices reminds me of real estate agents in 2005 that were spewing real estate “never goes down in price”
James Altrucher says the Dow goes to 20,000.
There are red flags everywhere you look. The bulls argument that the fed is going to save the voter so that The current powers that be maintain the status quo are not factoring in run away inflation and $10 gallon gas and what that dynamic plays on psyche of the American voter.
yea, it means no more fucking POS along with his finger wagging self righteous bubble assed first lady with her classless fucking J CREW threads! oh, and dont forget to take the mother in- law who looks like james brown warmed the fuck over.now thats a dynamic i can live with.
First!
The markets will rally on Monday.
“The bulls argument that the fed is going to save the voter so that The current powers that be maintain the status quo are not factoring in run away inflation and $10 gallon gas and what that dynamic plays on psyche of the American voter”
Probably true, but any way you cut it, the USG is to the point where it is either inflate or default now, or inflate and default later. People like to bash and make fun of Jimmy Carter, but he obviously cared more about doing the right thing than he did about getting re-elected, or he wouldn’t have appointed Paul Volcker as the Fed Chairman. Volcker raised rates and Carter got stomped in the election.
Ironically, it was Reagan who got the credit for putting an end to inflation. It is ironic, because Reagan cut taxes while going on a wild spend spree, and then, at the end of his term, appointed Alan Greenspan to take Volcker’s place at the Fed. Remember, Cheney once summed it up to former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill (before he fired him in 2004 for protesting about the deficit spending run-up), “You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don’t matter” The rest, along with Treasury Secretary John Connolly taking the US off of the gold standard in 1971, is history. When the Europeans got upset that the USD was no longer backed by gold, Connolly told them, “It may be our dollar, but it’s your problem.” Now the dollar has become the problem of the US citizen.
what come around goes around. the only reason why reagan or any sitting president would ever say deficits dont matter. because they will all be dead and gone by the time dummies in this country realize which president fucked them down the line. and carter did WAY worse than raise rates that didnt get him reelected. DEREGULATION come to mind. does yrcw come to mind, and a plethora of transport companies went down the tubes with them because of it………..
New bow tie and burlap suit. New sod laid over my bunker. Gazing out at the 2 acre garden, firing randomly at the crows with my double action pump shotgun. Next week will be down again. Grovel you Bull bitches.
Clam say no hyperflation. Me trust all knowing Clam. Stagflation not same hyperflation. All hail Clam.
This dude seems to get it and explain it in such way that non-economists understand it. It worth going though his blog because he really does get.
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/
He thinks the 08/09 recession was caused by the Fed being too tight. We know it here as the Fed having lost its grip on the capital markets.
He think the Fed has finally learned to target Nominal GDP and will continue do so for as long as the economy needs help.
This will not create hyperinflation that some people are worried about.,
Thanks J. I’ll add him to my macro reading list.
How could anyone with even a modicum of intelligence believe that it was a tight Fed that caused the recession of 2008? This guy’s saying that all those people who believe that the crash was caused by a massive unwind of the subprime derivative trade and the synthetic CMBS CDOs were only seeing the recession through an illusion. He’s implying that all those unqualified liar loan home buyers and house flipping speculators, who couldn’t make their payments, would have been fine if only the Fed hadn’t been too tight.
He’s also implying that the insolvency of Carlyle Capital and Bear Stearns hedge funds, that were full of worthless synthetic CDOs, could have been avoided indefinitely, if only the Fed hadn’t have tightened. Well, then the inverse must be true. Now that the Fed has flooded the big banks with trillions of dollars in liquidity, the market should be booming.
“He really does get” it. He gets nothing. There never was a liquidity problem. There was a huge financially engineered Ponzi scheme problem. There were between $600 and $700 trillion, notionally, in totally unregulated derivatives flowing though the market. What happened in 2008 was the excuse for the largest financial power grab in history (Hank Paulson’s Economic Stabilization Act of 2008). What was once bank debt became sovereign debt, and big bankers who were multimillionaires became multibillionaires. Before pandering to get readers of this heavyweight blog to read some lightweight blog instead, make sure that the authority behind that blog at least understands how the acceptance in the belief of the Gaussian copula gave license to the conditions that led to the world’s largest market crash since 1929.
David, all the derivatives and problems you state did cause the 2008 crisis. And the Fed causing a liquidity crisis made it worse. Without the Fed doing that, the Dow would not have gone all the way down to 6500. The reason the Fed intentionally made things worse was that the Fed is a bunch of bankers and they wanted to crash the market in order to scare the voters and taxpayers and Congress folks. So that they would go along with the plan to bail the favored bankers out– although the non-favored ones were left to die of course.
While high inflation in assets have lots to do with the money supply, hyperinflation has little to do with the money supply. It’s about confidence in the currency, and change in Liquidity (public debt+M3)
I realize that with high enough money supply you can have hyperinflation, and that by some accounts hyperinflation is nothing more than high inflation, but I see hyperinflation as an absolute collapse in confidence and the inflation rate must be measured on a MONTHLY basis rather than yearly.
J, keeping sippin whatever your sippin… Tell this to the 45% unemployed 18-35 yr old males in the middle east and North Africa when their rice bill goes up another 100%. They will put a bullseye on Bernankes beard. Just because a full blown currency crisis has yet to entail in the US, this does not mean it wont show up in other ways overseas that creates an unmanageable position for the Fed. You’ll wake up one morning in the next 2-3 years and understand what I am talking about. We could have taken a deep hideous recession/depression in 2004-2007, but now Benrnanke has put us on the path toward a hyperinflationary depression with a 3-6 month Bartering transition to a global SDR basket of global currencies backed by gold, not a gold standard. This transition will be quite fun in the USA I can assure you. Btw, this is mathematical fact, there is nothing you can do or say that will prevent this from happening. Just so you understand.
@Sierra – J is reading the data correctly. Until aggregate demand increases, and the liquidity the Fed has put into the system starts moving, commodity prices are at the whim of supply disruptions (drought, floods, conflict, etc.) and the level of the dollar if priced in Dollars. Currently there are NO wage pressures in the US that would fuel inflation.
If there were real inflation pressure it would show up here in the TIPS:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=DFII10,DFII5,
Tell this to the 45% unemployed 18-35 yr old males in the middle east and North Africa
Those dudes don’t vote in our elections. Hence, fuck ’em.
Fly you gotit all worked out,
What can i say
“You know Ben is sitting by the fireside, smoking his pipe, saying “I’m gonna get them bitches on Monday.”
LOL.
Fly, I’m with you on the $ arguement.
whats sad is any currency tied to the dollar, food inflation , if all u make is 1.25 a day and ur food goes to 2.50 we save america and fuck the rest of the world, im not a bleeding heart but this cant be good.
Oh yeah, well 7 months ago you could buy 24 5.5 oz cans of Clamato, Clam’s favorite drink, for $25. Guess what you can buy it for now: $25. $12.99 slightly dented cans on Amazon, fuckahz. Think about THAT next time you want to blog about food inflation. BTW, very refreshing. Pick some up today for your summertime picnic on the NJ shore. http://www.clamato.com/en/
u sir r short sited and holdin ur wnr
That is well stated, and if we listen to the undercurrent of Fed babble, it could get worse. Recently, Janet Yellen, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank of SF, said that if there was a way to have a negative Fed Funds rates, she would be for implementing them. Looking at real inflation, of course, the rate is already quite negative, but she wants it lower than that.
The Treasury just came out and declared a budget debt of around $2 trillion. There are no longer foreign buyers for all that, and it is getting into the territory where this debt becomes too large tor even the Fed to monetize. Without more QE, long term rates could get ugly. I think what the Fly is saying is that helicopter Ben will do whatever he thinks it takes not to let that happen, and Yellen will certainly lean hard in his direction.
The minute the Fed announces more QE, the market will take off again. Investors are now conditioned to do so. You can also bet that JPM and GS, as Primary Dealers, will be front running the rest of us. Until the day that other countries no longer accept the USD as the world’s reserve currency, count on Ben continuing to deal the marked cards stashed in a boot filled with unlimited decks in the Fed’s Ponzi Casino.
In the long run, that is correct. However, there is always a possibility that in the short run the Fed will try to scare the public and Congress, as they did in 2008 in order to get bank bailouts. But this time they would scare us in order to get our loyal obedience to the Fed’s will to QE 1 million in the future.
BTW there is a time lag between QE going into the economy and it having an effect. Here is a video that discusses that. Warning: Many of the other things discussed in this video are misleading at best and some are completely false.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000025675#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAwMDI1Njc1IiwiZW5jVmlkIjoiazNrR3hkdDc0UW1ybmI1Q2pYMVRHQT09IiwidlRhYiI6InRyYW5zY3JpcHQiLCJ2UGFnZSI6MSwiZ05hdiI6WyLCoExhdGVzdCBWaWRlbyJdLCJnU2VjdCI6IkFMTCIsImdQYWdlIjoiMSIsInN5bSI6IiIsInNlYXJjaCI6IiJ9
First!
I like the stat being floated about that no president since Roosevelt has been reelected when unemployment is above 7.2%. This curmudgeon says neither your children nor your grandchildren nor their grandchildren after them will enjoy a standard of living equal to yours this day. The day after the day after tomorrow will bring wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Welcome to the USA! Our national motto should be “WE BLEW OUR ENTIRE WAD IN 200 YEARS!”
How could tomorrow be better when wall street and walmart has forced companies to move operations overseas, thus guaranteeing that kids wont have jobs in the future. The answer must be paying stupid fuckers to breed and commit crimes. BWAHAHAHAHAH! We’re fucked no matter who jacks off in the oval office.
Monday will be interesting. Us Bears had another party on Friday ..But what we saw was the US Dollar bitched slapped so hard when the market priced in the chance of a Rate Hike this year to almost totally off the table. On Monday the only way the Bulls can get a rally as if the US Dollar is pushed down to its May lows…but omg who whould want to go long euro’s, oz’s just before their Central Banks meet??….doesn’t make much sense. So I would expect a chop chop day as we sit and rest from our party on Friday.
good call, we will see..
Actually razor I also forgot to mention the banks of South Korea, Indonesia, and New Zealand are also on tap. China may raise interest rates but that will probably be on Monday night cuz their market is closed on their Monday (our Sunday). FWIW South Korea is probably the only one that might raise which is not good for “risk on” plays.
I want to see S&P futures down about 5-7 points on Monday morning…the HFTs always buy down opens, it’s the up opens that are trouble.
If this is how Sober people act..aka; fly…dorris commentary i want nothing to do with it !!
easyer just wake and bake and pull the fucken trigger !!
My Wife is Requesting you put that sexy Dollar chart up on Her Favorite extra large Monitor, Linda Loves IT!
……