Putting the mathematical precision of The PPT aside, here are the reasons why I believe we will rally.
1. Dollar is not rallying hard.
2. The decline in oil is moderate.
3. AAPL has been green all day, alongside a slew of tech names.
4. Silver is strong, a key barometer of risk.
5. TLT is down.
6. Financials are firming up.
7. Dr. Bernanke is watching.
Developing…
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#8. Jim Rogers took his Bow Tie Off
55th- but the first one with balls to say it
You forgot that God has an announcement soon…sorry, I meant Steve Jobs.
And Dr. Bernanke is speaking tomorrow afternoon in Atlanta.
Speech–Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
The U.S. Economic Outlook
At the International Monetary Conference, Atlanta, Georgia
3:45 p.m. ET
http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm
John..We debated this on Friday. Nasdaq Econ Calender had him speaking on Monday. While we pointed out it was Tuesday per Fed site. I couldn’t get confirmation at the IMC website which one screwed up the date…
I’m inclined to believe what’s on the FRB website, but I think we’ll find out soon enough which is right.
Rally or not, when is WNR going to 20?
5th!
You forgot the most important tell…. THE FLY IS BULLISH
#1 reason I think we will see new highs on the year is this. The big boys will want to trap as many people as possible and we have been floating 1300-1350 for weeks they never usually give people this amount of time to sell. I think 1400-1450 with a blow off top that puts in a double top that dates back to 2008 signals the end. The fact that the swoosh lower is not as violent as one would expect and how vix isn’t popping as much as it should tells me this is some short term consolidation
If you keep saying we will rally……eventually you’ll be right 🙂
Ah a game for a dull day…let me play
1. Dollar and all other currencies can’t rally hard in front of so many central banks having rate meetings. Give my little one time. Once ECB and BoE are dovish this week my little one can run again up.
2. For Oil, it normally trades off the ralationship of Gold to US Dollar these days.Even with Gold having a crazy spike at 9est today. the US Dollar resting, so does Oil
3. AAPL has been trying to run itself into that 350.00 resistance for months…just bulls hoping
4. Silver, Gold, Copper is those Managers that are playing the “Commodities Rally” with out a clue that China will probably tighten tonight and RBA be dovish tonight
5. POMO today
6. OK, go long in banks then…lol…didn’t think so.
7. Clam…..you are my enemy. lol…thank you fly, that was fun.
Have you heard the expression…..Don’t fight the Fed?
Trading Nymph:
Re: # 4…..What would be the result on metals as China tightens?
Bravo…A rate hike in China could be taken two ways, 1. China Govt has no control over inflation so Gold, Silver, etc is the only way to go or 2. China Govt is Mad Serious about controlling inflation and will cut all growth to do it…they don’t care if people suffer. I of course is in the Second Camp. Iron Ore Spot out of India is at 4 months low, Copper never went back to Feb highs. There are some out there that are expecting the China RESTOCKING after vacation play…I see auto sales in china down and if these droughts are linked back to dam building (which was a headline over there), I think a lot of their building plans of Hydro electric plans will be put on hold, fwiw. China is slowing…yet US Fund Managers are playing like its not. ALSO, most in China is expecting a rate increase so we may actually see a relief rally on the news tonight.
If Bernanke were to announce a $1.5 trillion QE3 in the next few days, the market would take off. It is the inflationary effect of a weak dollar that moves the market up. At least it was that way until last week. The US stock market has been moving in lockstep with the euro. As the euro gains strength against the USD, the US market rises. Last week, however, it didn’t work out that way.
There were 80,000 people, yesterday, protesting against the latest round of austerity in Greece. The effects of this may put the value of the euro in temporary jeopardy. If the euro moves down, chances are strong that the US market will move down along with it. If the euro holds and the dollar even starts to weaken, then the US market should start moving upward.
As far as the stock market reflecting the real economy, that’s total BS. Housing, employment and sales tax revenue numbers continue to dwell in the crapper. Wall Street, drunk on QE infusions and the investment banks’ highly leveraged quant boy manipulations, has been in the money, while Main Street, suffering from foreclosures, small business closings, growing numbers of people on food stamps and decreasing wages has been sinking deeper into the depression. Wall Street bonuses hit a record $154 billion, while Main Street Americans can barely survive from paycheck to paycheck.
The phony mark-to-model and the Wall Street accounting of impaired assets do not reflect the highly impaired mark-to-market values of the actual Main Street collateral behind those falsely valued Wall Street securities. Wall Street values are nothing more than smoke and mirrors, but that doesn’t mean money can’t be made by guessing right about which way the highly leveraged swing traders are moving the market. Being far too long, myself, I am hoping that the Fly has guessed right. We have returned to the pre-1929 days of bucket shops.
They should just reset all debt to zero and let the banks rot. All the “profit” they show on their balance sheets is fictitious anyhow. It wasn’t real profit in 2006 and it’s not real profit now.
I keep waiting for the “emperor has no clothes” call………..
$600 Trillion in derivatives worldwide? Who was stupid enough to go there in the first place?
Oh okay
So the internal auditors, the external auditors, the fed examiners, state banking examiners, FDIC audits..
They’re all in a conspiracy to lie about bank profits. Every single one of them.
Yep sounds right. And I suppose Bush also attacked the world trade center.
Explain tower 7 for us please.
Explain what? WTF!
Look Mars if you really think the goberment did 911 you should be fucking banned because you’re too fucking dense to be on this site.
I didn’t say that. I’m unconvinced either way. But until someone can give me an explanation for tower 7 I’ll reserve judgement.
Bankers are greedy fools. They sold away the USA and invented the false economy of “stupid fuckers buying and selling houses”. They should all be sent to Afghanistan, chopped up and used as fertilizer…..just sayin.
Monkey gets it.
All of the supposed profits made or generated during the post dot com bubble era were nothing more than a fairy tale………or maybe a fairy’s tail. The didn’t exist, they never existed, they never will exist no matter how much the world economy “recovers” because they were just notations on somebodies balance sheet. or P/L statement.
Those numbers made a few folks look good on paper……… and maybe even do good if they cashed in at the right time and got the heck out of Dodge.
The bottom line is though that all those financial instruments just disguised the fact that nothing of real value was produced. It was/is all a charade.
I second the chop and grind motion.
There is a vivid Bullish “descending broadening wedge” in SPX and Dow futures daily chart. Info on pattern: http://thepatternsite.com/dbw.html
Statistically, a bounce out of such a pattern takes us above the starting point, which would put us ABOVE early May highs in the Dow.
This is very similar to the megaphone pattern I pointed out last summer, but angled downward.
Also, John Paulson is telling his clients he expects a 40% move up from here.
I only expect about a 3% move above osama top, then more consolidation.
Paulson’s biggest hedge fund, Advantage Plus, lost 6% in May. He had to tell his pissed off investors something to keep them from squawking.
This is a daytraders only market. Your broker loves you.
That TSLA car is hot.
http://ibankcoin.com/news/2011/06/06/cool-car/
Perhaps the fall in the banks is based on this, in which case doesn’t matter so much.
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel Tarullo said Friday that U.S. regulators should set additional capital requirements for financial firms as they look to prevent another financial crisis.
One plan under consideration would set enhanced capital requirements about 20% to more than 100% over Basel III, Tarullo said in remarks prepared for the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank.
The so-called Basel III accord, endorsed by the Group of 20 in November, is meant to help prevent another financial crisis by improving the banks’ ability to absorb financial or economic shocks. Those standards require banks to maintain capital equal to 7% of their assets, measured on a risk-weighted basis, by 2019. That compares with a 2% requirement under older standards.
“We cannot ignore the costs to society that the failures of [systemically important financial institutions] would cause the financial system and the economy more generally,” Tarullo said.
Tarullo, named by President Barack Obama to the Fed board in 2009, has taken the lead on many bank regulation and supervisory issues at the Fed. The U.S. central bank has a key role shaping new rules mandated by last year’s Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, including capital requirements.
Tarullo touched on several features regulators are considering for the new requirement, including measures to mandate higher additional requirement depending on a firm’s interconnectedness with broader system.
Tarullo also said firms near the same size should face similar capital requirements–an indication that companies with assets greater than $50 billion wouldn’t necessarily face substantially higher costs than companies with slightly less assets.
Since the FASB was gang-raped into vitiating the mark-to-market accounting rules for banks, assets held by the big banks are self-valued, using mark-to-madoff accounting. An audit of Maiden Lane 1 showed us just that. Dodd and Frank were owned by banksters, and Obama’s largest campaign contributor for four straight years was Goldman Sachs. If Obama appointed Daniel Tarullo, then the banksters have got it in the bag. Jamie Dimon and Jeff Immelt are also on the Fed Board. The fox is guarding the hen house.
The bottom line is that no F’ing financial institution should be “systemically important”. If they are systemically important they are too big. Period. Time for the banks to “eat cake”.
about 3: i think Jobs is presenting iCloud today? might be sell the news.
Given AAPL track record with poor security what idiot would trust their shit to the iCloud? Oh wait a minute, every fucking IT idiot will want to use the iCloud cause its soooo wayyyy coool dude.
it doesn’t matter, whether it’s iPOD14 or iFCUKYOU or anything similar. I am just pointing at the possibility of Sell the news event.
I was hoping to wait for the rally. I had just a little position in AMD and I had to sell it. About sticking to my pre-decided risk profile.
UUP 5min
http://screencast.com/t/WvtUz2tUjgmQ
oil
http://screencast.com/t/OjTu6PaL
TLT
http://screencast.com/t/XbbynQZi
waiting on the Bernanke
silver falling
http://screencast.com/t/Gbfu3c6Ynr
yep, silver is “falling” to the tune of being up 2% on the day.
Maybe zoom out that timeframe a bit, there
http://www.marfdrat.net/2011/01/31/crime-cops-enhance-and-zoomify/
AS OF MY POST SILVER SLID THE REST OF THE DAY..IM ONLY LOOKING SHORT TERM
http://screencast.com/t/3sowrrveKQmh
I’m buying some NOG here…. They are finding new oil and have a huge short position.
Rolled my WNR 16 calls to Sept this AM
um…