LET’S ROLL DICE

Before I get into it, let me just say I am thoroughly impressed by participation in the iBC Blogger Network. In just one day, we have over 130 new bloggers signed up providing content. If you want to be heard, sign up and compete. Eventually, I will be rewarding A list bloggers. Also, if you link up your Twitter account to the blog, you stand to gain many new followers, as we auto tweet your blogs on our corporate account (18,700+ followers) with your twitter name.

iBC is a force not to be fucked with.

For the sake of fantasy, let’s assume the crisis we just endured, the China scares, the Euro gayness, were nothing more than bullshit. Again, imagine yourself in 2006 and the global growth story is in hyper speed, flattening bears along the way. After this gicockulous run, what stocks are still cheap?

For the most part you want to be long companies with high ROE ratios, one of my favorite gauges to determine if a company is well run. Then you want to compare FPE’s and PEG ratios of companies in the same industry. Lastly, go listen to the fucking conference calls or read some research to get a feel.

Here is my “best case scenario” “Fly in wonderland” list of stocks that will rip chest hairs off the bears.

AGU, NOR, KRA, HUN, FCX, DE, CNH, CPE, WLT, BTU, SWC, X, WLL, HFC, OMN, SOA, SID, MTL, TS.

Lastly, I am thoroughly impressed with TEA. Think of TEA as GMCR without the accounting scandals, selling the shit Asia likes to drink via retail stores. I will do a complete post on TEA this weekend. If they execute, the stock trades to $100 within 2 years.

A great man once said “Gentlemen: you have undertaken to cheat me. I won’t sue you, for the law is too slow. I’ll ruin you.”

Yours Truly

I know you want me to hate on this rally. I am simply going to deny your request and chalk up a big L for Admiral Fly of the SS Fucktard. My diabolical plan to make 30% for the year was going “swimmingly” until today. I’m gonna have to remix this shit, in order to catch up. Looking back, I’d take the same position 9 out 10 times. To be cautious, even short, was the high probability trade. All of you sea monkeys who nailed this rally got lucky. There was no skill involved, other than staying permanently bullish.

This is the grandest October rally since 1974. Betting on such probabilities is no different than a degenerate OTB guy betting his rent money on a pony. So you know, I harbor no regrets, only anger.

My intraday moves helped a great deal. I was supposed to go with Mrs. Fly to Short Hills mall, to escort her as she spends thousands of dollars–buying a gift for me (anniversary). However, as the Gods would have it, my youngest child decided to throw up all over the place, effectively anchoring me down for the day. It’s a good thing because my early sales of VXX and TZA saved me a lot of money. And, my TLT sale was timely too.

My purchases were much higher about an hour ago. But, for the most part, they are all up about anywhere from 1-6% from cost.

Again, the most likely scenario is a sell off tomorrow. This is just absurd. And, when we get it, I will sell the rest of my FUCKTARDED and woefully homosexual VXX position. It’s the electrical socket that I rather enjoy sticking my butter knife in, every so often. It’s an annual thing for me, losing a great sum of money in VXX. Following last years loss, I made back all of my losses, AND MORE, inside of a few short weeks.

Let’s see how perverted these Wall Streeters are, after all. With Turkey Day right around the corner, I bet they circle jerk until the cows come home.

I’ve been chasing my tail all morning, fighting to stem the blood flow out of my pockets and into yours. These occurrences are quite rare and when they happen, typically, it portends to a catastrophic terrorist attack. In other words, the blood is on your hands.

Very early on, as discussed, I sold all of my TZA and half of my VXX. I had no choice. I thought everything would be fine, as the market was already up “tonnes”. Needless to say, I was wrong–yet again. So, I started making moves to off-set what appeared to be a mini-black swan day for your Lordship. I say “mini” because I had 55% of my assets in cash.

At any rate, one of my larger holdings, TLT, is chasing hairs down the drain-hole. I don’t feel like selling it because it’s my only real downside hedge. So, I bought tremendous amounts of AG and added to my EXK. I am not done. Seeing the market wants higher, I scoured it for highly shorted stocks in sectors that are screaming. I bought a rather large block of CIEN stock.

Seeing my VXX dive another point for fun and my EXH short barrel roll higher, I bought some NFLX, mainly because no one else wants it. I am sure this is a buy I will soon regret. Oh, I almost forgot, I bought some CIS because I heard someone talking about it inside The PPT (h/t wife).

That just about sums up my day, entirely nonsensical and against all of the things I’ve been professing for about 2 days.

Right now, my allocation models are a mess and I am trying to get a handle on what the fuck is going. It’s comical. I know. You are permitted to chuckle, not laugh.

In summary, “The Fly” is buying stocks because they are going higher. It’s the most brainless stratagem in all of the realms. Whether it is destined to work or not is no longer in my hands, but with the Gods. I do not advise you follow me into battle, as some of you are without torsos from our previous excursion into TZA-territory. But know one thing, just when you think “The Fly” is finished, he rises up like a zombie and eats your brains.

Words to live by my friends. Do it.

UPDATE: I decided to part ways with TLT. And, rover boat style, I bought RENN with the proceeds. That’s right, US Treasuries to Chinese fucking burrito.

I bought 20,000 NFLX at around $81. And, I bought 150,000 CIEN.

Wish me luck! Off to dive head first into an alligator pit.

I nibbled at CIS.

I bought both, fully intending to profit from the dollars immediate demise.

I sold out of my TZA position at a tragic loss (personal) in order to clean the slate. Theoretically, I should be buying TZA here. But I needed to sideline my personal aggressive account in order to dedicate my full attention to managed.

On the managed side, things are much better, just 1.25% off annual and all-time highs. I know, had I participated in the current rally, I’d be +30%. Thinking about shit like that pisses me the fuck off, so stop reminding me. Anyway, I sold 50% of my VXX position to clear the air. The current environment doesn’t call for a 10% VXX weighting, while my cash is 55%. Since I am unwilling to buy here, my only option is to reduce downside exposure. In this case, VXX.

I really like silver here, specifically EXK and AG; but they are overbought, just like everything else. Nevertheless, I might buy some silver anyway. Let me think about it.

You don’t buy into +250 days. This market can go 1,000 points higher from here; but I promise you, it’s not going to happen today. There will be pullback and better entry points. Should I buy here and be proven wrong, I will double my fuckery on both ends of the trade. It’s bad enough missing out on “suchness.” I’m not about to Homey the Clown myself into a double ended pinless hand grenade party.

I bet you expected some negative bearshit out of me today. Well, you’re wrong. To throw a wet towel on such a jubilant day is simply sour grapes. There is much to dislike about the EFSF deal and the euro-land economy; but how is that going to make me money today?

Mea culpa: I was not positioned correctly for this rally due to my disbelief in momentum. This was not a surprise. As a matter of fact, the news was out before it was out and the market was running ahead of the news that we already knew. So what is this all about?

Answer: momentum.

Money managers are throwing the kitchen sink at this market in an effort to win back their losses. Apparently, they won. The market is all the way back, AND MORE. Granted, some names, like X, are still deep in the hole. But, generally speaking, any broadly diversified fund made his/her year over the past 3 weeks.

I stand to lose today. The damage will be limited only because of my over-cautious positioning. I was stuck in the amber of extreme negativity to the point that putting on short positions made no sense to me. My exposure is VXX @10%, EXH short @5%, TLT @ 10%, long WNR @ 5%, long EXK @10%, GSVC @ 5% and 55% cash.

France is up 6 fucking percent today. To fathom the mechanics of how that is possible is simply too unachievable– so early in the morning.

If I was to believe in this reflation story, taking into consideration that enormous +2.5% GDP number, I’d buy Iron Ore stocks, like X. Iron Ore is down 30% over the past month and iron stocks have been murdered. My most likely path is towards food and beverage. I am very keen on TEA and intend to give you a thesis soon.

Okay, news is coming fast, but it appears the EFSF deal has been reached. As expected, it will be 1.4 trilly, by using 400-500% leverage on cash. Haircuts on Greek debt will be 50% and that does NOT include ECB holdings. In other words, they are openly committing accounting fraud. The fund must be set up by next month and Italy swears on a stack of King James bibles they will get their shit together. Lastly, like TARP, Euro banks will be funded with 30 billion for recapitalization. No word on how many banks and which banks need the funding. My guess they reside in Germany and France.

What does this mean?

Well, it means gold and silver will soar. On this repeated news, stocks should not go higher. However, they’re going higher anyway. People want a reason to go long and this puts visions of QE3 in the minds of people. Ultimately, the debasement of the money supply will lead to artificial inflation, readily seen in oil, copper, gold, silver etc.

Under normal circumstances, we should sell off on this news. You know, buy the rumor, sell the news sort of thing. But it’s too early to judge, especially with futures up 14.

Either way, I will be getting my JAKEGINT on tomorrow via additional purchases of EXK and AG.

Vagrancy. That’s the word best used to describe the west today. Forget about the lies of American “exceptionalism.” The old whigs in Europe have managed to denigrate their finances to the point of asking for handouts from the Chinese. All western nations are fat, bloated pigs, suffocated by corrupt bureaucracies.

Since when is everyone entitled to a nice comfortable life?

We all have opinions and derive said beliefs into market positions in order to profit. I take nothing away from those of you who want the charade to continue for the benefit of your portfolios. I am made from the same cloth. However, investments aside, this is devastatingly tragic, seeing once proud nations diminished to nothing more than 1st class subways beggars.

The Chinese will gladly keep the music playing, in order to further fleece the west. Our western leaders have presided over the greatest transfer of wealth, from west to east, in the history of mankind. The only somewhat responsible party, Germany, is being choked into submission, to further denigrate their populace for the benefit of degenerate oyster shuckers in Greece. After this EFSF business is complete, artificial, self induced inflation may return, further expediting the transfer of wealth, from us to the oil barrons in the middle east.

Our leaders say we need “green energy” in order to keep the charade going. If they were serious about helping Americans, they’d permit oil exploration on an unprecedented scale. Instead, they give tax breaks for fucking solar panels that no one can afford. What’s next, windmills on cars?

I’m past the stage of buying into schemes. Therefore, I am protesting this rally through inaction.