I’ve been chasing my tail all morning, fighting to stem the blood flow out of my pockets and into yours. These occurrences are quite rare and when they happen, typically, it portends to a catastrophic terrorist attack. In other words, the blood is on your hands.
Very early on, as discussed, I sold all of my TZA and half of my VXX. I had no choice. I thought everything would be fine, as the market was already up “tonnes”. Needless to say, I was wrong–yet again. So, I started making moves to off-set what appeared to be a mini-black swan day for your Lordship. I say “mini” because I had 55% of my assets in cash.
At any rate, one of my larger holdings, TLT, is chasing hairs down the drain-hole. I don’t feel like selling it because it’s my only real downside hedge. So, I bought tremendous amounts of AG and added to my EXK. I am not done. Seeing the market wants higher, I scoured it for highly shorted stocks in sectors that are screaming. I bought a rather large block of CIEN stock.
Seeing my VXX dive another point for fun and my EXH short barrel roll higher, I bought some NFLX, mainly because no one else wants it. I am sure this is a buy I will soon regret. Oh, I almost forgot, I bought some CIS because I heard someone talking about it inside The PPT (h/t wife).
That just about sums up my day, entirely nonsensical and against all of the things I’ve been professing for about 2 days.
Right now, my allocation models are a mess and I am trying to get a handle on what the fuck is going. It’s comical. I know. You are permitted to chuckle, not laugh.
In summary, “The Fly” is buying stocks because they are going higher. It’s the most brainless stratagem in all of the realms. Whether it is destined to work or not is no longer in my hands, but with the Gods. I do not advise you follow me into battle, as some of you are without torsos from our previous excursion into TZA-territory. But know one thing, just when you think “The Fly” is finished, he rises up like a zombie and eats your brains.
Words to live by my friends. Do it.
UPDATE: I decided to part ways with TLT. And, rover boat style, I bought RENN with the proceeds. That’s right, US Treasuries to Chinese fucking burrito.
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first
Chuckle.
This is starting to look like an exhaustion gap.
My feelings exactly. good laugh at myself
Chuckling
The turkey gods and santa will be kind to all long stock holders.
DOW 12995 by year’s end.
I chuckled, ever so lightly but with great gusto.
I too am buying shit that is just going up. I bought a bunch of international ETFs that are already up 4%-5% on the day. I am almost certain to pay for it in blood.
way to show patience……..
LOL
Glad I didn’t say that !
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Its hard to be too bullish on TLT here. But, we are brewing bullish descending wedges on the hourly and daily charts of the US dollar index. And, that should give VXX a swift bounce soon.
Hang in there. I’m the idiot who hedged away about 80% of the gains of this monster move. It would have made my year. Instead, I’ll be plugging away trying to hit singles and doubles for the rest of the year, when I could have hit an inside the park HR, but got tagged out because I missed third base.
VXX is like an electrical socket that I stick a knife in one per year.
It is customary.
sold TLT, bot RENN
If you like silver so much you should look at AUMN. Low float, big growth profile.
buying in most overbought market ever = CHASING
I think that should be in the Urban Dictionary … if it isn’t already in there !
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Tell that to my intra-day gains.
i was chasing tail last night
If you haven’t noticed, logic does not apply anymore!
EXACTLY
Fitch, Moody’s, S&P
Will be friends of the bears, this time
Ironic, no?
how can my TVIX goes from 110 to 40 in less than a month, fuck …
BANNED. You offer nothing of substance.
get ’em while they’re hot
https://secure.flickr.com/photos/1puttbassman/3788151243/
Id be cautious here. Big money flow divergences today. Big money is selling into this…
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfsctrscan-moneyflow.html
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html
I can hardly contain my giddiness! Currently up 4.9% and taking some off the table today.
I might add that that there was some reference to anyone buying on the dips had the brains of a goat!
A Romanian goat no less!
Many resource stocks are up over 10% today!
Look people. I am with you on the fundies. But we have a fucking lunatic tape. I am just trying to keep up.
Sentiment is way too bullish – the boyz should start dumping pretty soon
That said if we print a 1287 – closing SDS for a small loss
That was close; printed 1286.34
Still in this
Stopped out 1.5%
Selling treasuires buying burritos the Clam magic does work.
… the ghost of Jesse Livermore just walked into my trading room … tapped me lightly on the shoulder … and offered me a Ham Sandwich !
Pretty creepy !
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What is the catalyst that will push this market higher?
$5 per gallon gas?
me covering my short from last week…
Funny!
Finally the FT is covering the story about the Chinese not being so giddy, we had it here first earlier http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7505d210-00ba-11e1-8590-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1c0VNmcXI
Nice simple chart here from someone at Slope – hard to be bullish when you look at this:
http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e00989822288330162fbf53d72970d-popup
what is that tic-tac-toe gibberish?
I bought TWM pre-October expiration on the thesis there would be a collapse in the $RUT post-expiration. Sold that position on Monday when we had a mini melt up. Was kicking myself yesterday morning for having sold TWM on Monday when it appeared the collapse had been postponed ’til Wednesday. Now I am glad as fuck I sold TWM on Monday when I did.
I do agree a short opportunity is imminent. Will be interesting to see tomorrow if those who have been buying will want to go into the weekend long stocks.
Just like I said 1230 was the magic S&P a couple weeks ago, when most of you were mentally manic and raving mad, I think it’s time to start placing stops, scaling out.
If you really think the thin volume and rise based on Germany’s bench pressing the weight of the world, will continue, you can tolerate more risque than BRA.
Good lux.
I am finally getting in short. and scared to do it.
Been away from the markets for a while and I guess I’m glad as I would probably be shorting the rally. Been busy with work but try to keep up with iBC. I thought there would be more talk here about the undefined CDS trigger.
Has anyone seen a market more disconnected from reality?
It’s Bizarro Market. I will now do the opposite of what I think I should do, which for the record would have been the exact right thing to do the past three months.
Has anyone seen a market more disconnected from reality?
Yes, just a little over a month ago to be exact. The market was pricing in 2008 Lehman-style end of the world bullshit. You are not supposed to have Armageddon like valuations while GDP is still ever so slightly increasing.
if they trigger, CDS buyers are made whole and someone pays up… maybe causing strain on that party but they knew what they signed up for.
If thy don’t trigger, the whole CDS complex will be qustioned.
IMO a 1% principal writdown is event of default. 50% is a terrible bath for holders.
Seen some posts in other blogs about how this is the death knell of the sovereign cds market. I say good riddance. The fewer derivative instruments there are in the world the safer we all will be. Can’t stand Uncle Warren and his hypocrisy but I do find myself agreeing with his statement about derivatives being financial wmd’s.
Financials and energy killing it on the tsx today (even including SLF). The big PM boost was yesterday; surprisingly just 1-2% gains while many intheshithouse O&G’s are boosting 6%.
Bleier called this year’s chart being a repeat of last year’s. Bingo.
someday can we have a post called “Can’t stop the bum rush” shout out to cris cross
It is time to start scaling into Tomatoes…they are going to be doing the hunnard roll soon.
I’m not shorting anything here but I did manage to raise 8% cash today locking in some gains. We may get some profit taking late today or tomorrow. I’m not chancing it.
Wow!!!
Talk about a Short Squeeze!
FU
… what “Vegas” said !
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What alf said.
This could just be the big blast leading off a huge run based solely on momentum as we head into TGiving and Xmas. Traders need to get their bonuses and how better to get them than have the market sprint higher into the end of the year. Perhaps the haircut on Greeks was just a catalyst to get the race started. Can’t argue with taking profits into this but to get short now could be suicide.
Took baby steps into QPSA today nicely under $4.00.
People can’t be buying stocks because they think they have missed out on this rally, they’ve go to be buying to cover shorts! Dow up 400 points! We may get your 1000 points if there are that many shorts out there!
… this Market is running with scissors !
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And the shorts are holding the balloons?
… or, the longs poke out an eye !
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Anyone still holding TZA? If you liked it last week, you’ve just gotta love it here!
I bought it today in the 27’s.
You might be able to get out too unscathed at that price.
Relax,just joking!
I’m so glad that everything is fixed now and we can start partying again like its 1999.
Wasn’t that downgraded to party like it’s 1909?
AA adds 1 bil in market cap in one day. Demand must be great for aluminum. Thank you China for fixing everything
Bought 1st week of Oct. as advised, at the first sign of any strength.(because we were def. in a bear market)Now, I’m ball less & refuse to give in..
I believe this is the market’s way of extending it’s middle finger out to #OWS?
Someone go to the barber and mention the stock market. If he says anything about buying TNA it will be a good sell signal, if not, get your full retard buying on. I believe it’s about time for the barber test, no?
ready for a fade in the last 5 mins???
ERY &DRV are tempting here. huh?
Sold the unwanted and overbought and added CJES on the bull flag.
All I know is if Maria Bartiromo asks me …
“do you know where your money is ?”
… a nine iron is going through the teevee !
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Very strong finish! Impressive!
Was hoping for a little more out of FORM today, but still nice performance non the less.
Sierra
I have a question that ONLY alf44 can answer
when the Dow goes to zero, will it rollover like the odometer on a buick?
I mean, will it flash 999999 for a few seconds?
compare today’s action with the action on July 7th.. especially the last hour!
take a look at the http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/ sentiment survey!
the last time sentiment was similar to this week was on July 7th.. coincidence: I do not believe in coincidences
July 7th was the eighth day of a rally. The Dow ended up 93. The next day (Friday July 8)
Dow was down 100 shortly after the opening; down 120 at 1:15PM and ended down 62.
Counting July 8, the market had a 7-day decline, culminating in a low on July 18, the Monday after options expiration.
I lean toward your thesis- if it is correct, we will be down big early tomorrow.
What if everything we thought we knew about economics was backwards. What if banks are less likely to lend if rates go lower so lowering interest rates has a negative effect and lowers growth and causes contraction? What if the government buying bonds caused people to buy bonds knowing the government would be there to sell the bonds to the fed. What if hiking rates gave banks more of a need to lend to profit and limited their investment options, forcing them to increase the amount of people they lend to and lower the lending standards on who they lend to? What if internationally, higher rates attracted foreign capital which spills over into the local economy? What if Paul Volker’s interest rate hikes didn’t stop inflation, but instead caused/increased it and that’s why the 80s+90s had stocks and real estate inflate drastically in value? What if Alan Greenspan lowering interest rates made things more difficult to recover initially? And the recovery would have happened anyways, and in fact it succeeded was in spite of low interest rates.
What happens when rates are low and everyone buys a house and is content with where they live, the jobs they have, etc. How much lower, (if at all) can interest rates go to make them buy another house? What if interest rates were at 0% Once you got to that point, why would bankers lend at all? And how could you get any more growth? At that point, wouldn’t the only way to get any growth be to widen the landscape of possible borrowers by encouraging banks to take on more risk by raising rates so they can charge more interest on the loans?
And will banks still lend at that level to the types of people that will buy multiple homes? And if not, will the money be there in the economy to support rising real estate prices?
What if even what seems right to economists in an island economy in real life behaves much differently because of the way capital can move overseas? What if Europe coming up with a dumb plan causes the US markets to rally because the market knows it won’t work and eventually capital will come back to the US and spill over into the economy, stock prices, earnings etc? What if all is wrong and everything you have been taught is wrong, and if it’s otherwise, how do you know?
If the fed and the SEC was working for the banks, trying to set up a system in which the banks can cause lots of people to lend, cause house prices to drop to cause more foreclosures, and continue to do so until they expand and then make more loans, would they tell you? Or would they deceive you? Make you believe that what they are doing will cause growth when it really makes things worse, and then tell you what they are doing will cause contraction when it really causes growth?
Inflation creates economic growth.
3% – 5% inflation with 6% long term interest rates are a GOOD combination for most folks.