My Top 3 Buy and Hold Discounted Brand Picks

The most important metric when fishing through this pool of rubble is net cash per share/price. Before I could even contemplate a turn around, I need to be reassured the stock will not go all the way, to zero.

In my opinion, here are the names with the best cash positions.

ZNGA, SNE, EA, IRBT, CAJ, FB, DELL, LXK, NILE, GME, CMG, COH, DECK, NFLX, NOK, RIMM and GRPN.

There, I’ve narrowed the field.

Now I want to look for growth potential. Without growth, there will be not be a sustainable turn around.

GRPN, EA, CMG, ZNGA, COH, DECK, NFLX,  and CAJ.

Pure wreckage factor. What stocks are beaten down the most. I know that seems like a simplistic theory, buying stocks that are down the most. However, sometimes the biggest winners are the stocks that get sold off the most, unduly of course.

ZNGA, GRPN, CAJ, DECK, EA, TIF, CMG, COH, NFLX

Ok, that was no help. All of those fuckers are beaten down. Let’s try FPE ratios under 20x.

DECK, EA, GRPN, COH, TIF

Last but not least, full scan of the fundamentals by The PPT (gross margins, p/b, p/s, PEG ratios, debt/equity, profit margins).

DECK, COH, TIF

There you have it: my top buy and hold picks for discounted brands are DECK, COH and TIF. Those are my methods and they’ve served me well. Going with the highly speculative names, like EA, ZNGA and GRPN, offer a much greater potential upside. However, it is my belief, the above names will give you a more comfortable ride, chauffeured by gentlemen in top hats.

You know what I was busy doing today, aside from getting my fucking brains blown out by EXK, EL and VXX?

Mrs. Fly had an interior decorator teach us what we needed to be taught, with regards to paint, window treatments and of course fabric. Droning on through the process, I’d blurt out unreasonable requests for “goblin green” to be “splashed” upon the bedroom walls. Or, perhaps a “punch” of terra-cotta to mesh with the many nuances of “jack-0-lantern orange,” were my requests. In the end, I was on the receiving end of a homo-hammer, all the while EL gave me the business (no homo).

This isn’t even remotely close to being funny.

I haven’t even read the news yet. I don’t know if Ben gave a public blow-job to Alan Greenspan, or he opted to take out his printing press for a “rendezvous” across Zimbabwe.

“Pardon me as I get a dash of cocaine to powder my nose with.”

I lost money today, but sold out of LNN for sport–young chap. Ag was sooo June. I am onto bigger and better things, such as “hedging” my positions with a fucking chainsaw to femur (VXX).

We’re all waiting for The Bearded Clam to come out and snap the dicks off short sellers. If so, why the fuck is gold and silver lower? Nevertheless, silver stocks are in the process of bottoming here. Should Ben print some crack cocaine on his 3-d printer, EXK will gap–the fuck—higher.

It’s humorous to me that Egan Jones just downgraded the debt of Knight Capital, following this morning’s absurd buy programs gone buck-fucking-naked-wild. Mr. Jones is an opportunist of the first order, a man on stilts trying to pretend he is tall.

As an aside, the retail investor enjoys “flash-surges” to the upside, especially when they trigger buy stop orders for their hedges on Fed day.

VHC looks like its bottomed, finally. The PPT flagged that motherfucker to be OVERSOLD the other day. I should have bought and could have and would have; but I was too God damned busy fine tuning my orbital space cannon, aiming it at a small obtuse town in upstate New York.

Both August and September are the worst months for stocks. Around this time of the year, I always plan to go on vacation, in my head I sell all of my stocks, and take a break to avoid the tomfuckery. But I always get sucked in, thinking “this time will be different.” After all, the market has to buck the trend sometime, right?

WRONG.

We are going the fuck lower and I will not be fooled by this faux rally. The markets are near new highs and earnings have been the worst in a decade. What the fuck am I missing here?

Everything seems to be very calm and cool. The summer breeze rifling through your hair, as you trade from your Ferrari, speeding with the top down, doing 250mph. Next thing you know, your car transforms into an accordion against a titanium wall, crushing your stupid fucking face like a pepsi can under an anvil.

“The Fly” shall not be tricked, not this time, not ever.

I put together a watchlist to track brands gone bad, with regards to year to date stock performance. If forced to pick three turn arounds, which would you choose from this list?

Add FB to that list for good measure.

I will give you my three picks tomorrow.

We are in a meat grinder until the Fed disappoints and sends stocks lower. If I was 100% certain about the outcome, I’d sell my stocks and sit with VXX. However, there is nothing certain in this God-foresaken whore of a tape. I have no choice but to sit tight and watch my equity bleed out, drip by drip, until a resolution has been made.

The miners are acting fucktarded and VXX is looking great. I am not sure what type of backwards world I am in, but know that I am in it. LNN is now trading by appointment and JACK is trading the fuck higher, dumb old Mexican style.

I don’t think the action is bad at all, with exception to the earnings catastrophes, which is what alarms me. With TLT up near $130, we should be spiraling lower. I cannot explain why the market is so strong; therefore, by default, I am opting to wait for a better tape.

If we don’t get a flush out in stocks, take the month of August off. There is no reason to get long ahead of the Fed meeting, while Spanish and Italian yields are so high and US treasuries are so low. The bond market will let you know when it’s time to buy stocks.

Watch TLT closely and avoid any and all earnings plays, unless you have an edge. You know I love YELP and feel they should smash earnings. However, in light of the recent debacles in social media earnings calls, I have no interest in rolling the dice here. The stock is more than $5 below my sale price, but is still unattractive due to social media multiple compression.

What does that mean?

Well, this sector is literally the worst sector in the market, even worse than coal. Investors aren’t willing to pay up for these stocks. Therefore, PE and P/S ratios are coming the fuck lower, in a seamless, uninterrupted, manner. As sure as I am sitting here in this luxurious Bo Concept chair, the social media space will eventually bottom out and offer spectacular returns to patient investors, but not yet.

Moving on, I still like LNN and EXK here, but should have sold EXK when The PPT flagged it as “overbought” the other day. Nevertheless, both stocks should trend higher over the next 3 months.

Howsoever, based upon the untenable laws of mathematics, my favourite pick here is VXX.

I ordered a bag of almonds, but received a bag of mixed nuts instead!

Didn’t CMI warn just a short while ago? I vividly recall feeling “fortunate” for selling the stock when it tanked into the $80’s. Lo and behold, by hook or crook, they’ve managed to beat the street and soar in value!

What the fuck is going on here? Remember when all of the bearshitters went on the teevee, dressed in their funny suits, pancaked up with makeup, declaring CMI to be a “forward looking indicator”? Well, I imagine those same journalists are having serious discussions regarding the earnings beat, over at CMI, today, no?

Did you know there was a coordinated assault to bring down the shares of VHC? It was rather sublime, actually. It’s a funny thing when you learn billion dollar hedge fund managers sent out text messages to short VHC weeks before the epic decline. Like I said before, it is very hard for me to prove these things, but rest assured, they happened.

Tech is leading the way higher today and I am feeling better about the market, thanks to CMI. If only TLT would start to tick lower, I might interest myself in a stock, or two.

Josh Brown, from Reformed Broker, penned an eloquent, well thought out piece, regarding the rise and the fall of TheStreet.com and how he would save it. Well, unfortunately for all parties involved, there are no zombies on the web. Once you’re dead, you’re dead forever, in the stylish world of social media.

TheStreet.com is grandpa’s old tux with blue ruffled shirt to match.

Cue Geocities.

Cue Lycos.

Cue Yahoo.

Cue Myspace.

Cue Thestreet.com

Get it?

Once you’ve lost the “it” factor on the web, you are done. The reason why TST failed has everything to do with Cramer. As largest shareholder and Chairman of the company, he should have made smarter decisions, such as firing 90% of the workforce. I’d replace them with gorillas, who’d unwrap bananas for me, to be sold at my local A&P.

It’s theft to have 300 employees at that albatross of a company. With newspapers folding on a daily basis, there is an overabundance of talent out there who will work for peanut shells (save the peanuts for execs). I’d put 5 guys in charge of news and offer them a $30k base salary, with generous stock options if they hit their goals.

I have other ideas; but it’s an exercise in futility. Once Mad Money gets canceled, or when Cramer retires, TST will go straight to $00.00.

Fact.

The only way TheStreet.com will make it is if they create or buy another website, and totally disassociate it away from their fucked up brand–sort of like how Yahoo owns shit that is now worth more than Yahoo.

But you know that’s not going to happen. Therefore, the inevitable will occur: TST to zero.

All of the losers are sprinting forward today. If you don’t believe, take a look at GDOT, JVA, VHC, ATPG, GSVC, MY etc. It’s the who’s who of the orphan stock rampage to the upside, no homo, no protein–just cocaine. If I was long JVA into today’s romp, I’d sell it 10 ways till Sunday.

Having said that, I’d like to sober you up (no Stocksage) through the visualization of THIS! (BEHOLD, MOTHERFUCKER)

You see that shit, hovering near all-time highs? That’s the Jakegint killer, bunker buster for his gold mines gone awry. What that should tell you is that big money is no longer interested in risk, so they are parking money in US treasuries because they are backed by the full faith and credit of the United Steaks of America. In other words, they don’t trust having money in the banks, past the FDIC limit, nor do they have any interest, whatsoever, in participating in the “Dogs of the Dow theorem.”

What these yields are suggesting, from a layman’s point of view, is another storm brewing on the horizon, something insidious and infectious that is going to destroy the very fabric of society. If your company isn’t built to last, it will fold.

You’ve been warned.

Fun fact: TLT has NEVER gone down in the month of August, in the 10 years publicly traded. The average return over the past 10 years, in August, is 4.22%. Over the past two years, TLT gained about 9% in August alone.

Risk off.