We are in a meat grinder until the Fed disappoints and sends stocks lower. If I was 100% certain about the outcome, I’d sell my stocks and sit with VXX. However, there is nothing certain in this God-foresaken whore of a tape. I have no choice but to sit tight and watch my equity bleed out, drip by drip, until a resolution has been made.
The miners are acting fucktarded and VXX is looking great. I am not sure what type of backwards world I am in, but know that I am in it. LNN is now trading by appointment and JACK is trading the fuck higher, dumb old Mexican style.
I don’t think the action is bad at all, with exception to the earnings catastrophes, which is what alarms me. With TLT up near $130, we should be spiraling lower. I cannot explain why the market is so strong; therefore, by default, I am opting to wait for a better tape.
45 Responses to STOP TRADING
Oil continuing to plunge….i say they are levitating the market until months close. Bet we open down 1% tomorrow.
get some nuts! dmnd of course.
I’m short ADBE and LNC , still short FAS from 80…. fuckin’ banks… Ohhh and I fixed my indicators… would you believe I forgot to carry the 1? Woops…
Eat a sandwich with a side of diced pineapples (no Rozay).
What’s your opinion on $CMG post earnings?
I’ve never met a whore who was g_d-forsaken.
TLT just broke through its trendline and will promptly move the fuck higher
Any thoughts on holding WNR through earnings, given VLO’s numbers?
Dad said to never hold your WNR. You could go blind. I have to admit that sometimes I can’t help myself especially when I think about Rachel Greenbaum.
I don’t like anything into earnings.
We are going higher
You are a rank amateur.
and you are a “n0body”
Gary’s prediction doesnt deserve a reply….go FLY
Trading by appointment. A real LOL.
DUMP INTO THE CLOSE
It’s bald. u deaf/dumb fucktard.
What in the fuck are you talkin’ bout, boy…straighten up and talk some sense. This is no place for drunks.
Every half intelligent assessment of the Euro situation I’ve read has reached the same conclusion….it’s mathematically impossible for them to glue and paste.
Politics > Mathematics. They’ll simply add several “0″ to the equation and problem solved. Easy.
Musica mas excellencia.
I consider The Fly to be the premier smarty-pants trader and generally capable of death-defying stunts like YELP earlier this year…
but you’re oddly cautious in the face of what seems like a really clear pump-and-dump..
I”m about 50% cash and 50% in weeklies/monthlies long term (October 2012 to January 2013) TLT and VXX calls and puts for most euro indexes, SPY, and PCLN.
My spies in europe tell me the ECB isn’t going to do dick and while I realize America is a corrupt and putrid plutocracy, I don’t see QE3 being unleashed just to prevent the disaster of markets not breaking yearly highs. Especially when we’re starting to see some wobbly but decent recovery in the real economy and more QE would wash it away.
If I get my dick slammed in the car door here my question will be answered for me, but why are you not bearish with the same elan you usually show when you’re on the long side?
Because The Fed does not bail out those trapped short?
U means with offshores heldings???? I neo here.
Fly would you be so kind as to tell me the advantage of trading as suppose to the buy and hold theory that Buffet and the old timers seem to prescribe to. Your thoughts would be very helpful as I am a young trader looking to find a solid model to stick to.
Anyone can answer that question actually… Also, How much attention should be given to technical analysis?
Picture a stock that goes from 15 to 20 and then back to 17, then 19, and then back to 15 again. If you bought at 15 to begin with, how much money did you make if you bought at 15 and were still holding? If it went up or down a few points, you’d be ahead or behind by that increase or decrease.
Now if you bought at 15, sold at 20, bought at 17, then sold at 19, you would have made 7 points, or 47%, and you would be somewhat of an expert, or just very lucky.
If, on the other hand, you bought at 20, sold at 17, bought at 19, sold at 15, you’d be a really bad trader.
The choice is yours. You can be a trader or a buy and hold kind guy but with buy and hold, unless you pick the right stocks, and there aren’t many of them, you will watch your money evaporate while watching the paint dry.
So why is it so many traders fail?
What can I do to avoid these HUGE pitfalls?
Think about this part real carefully:
Now if you bought at 15, sold at 20, bought at 17, then sold at 19, you would have made 7 points,
Anyone can look like a trading genius in hindsight. Unfortunately most of us can’t pick exact tops and bottoms.
bong hits. or vaporize.
“Everything evolves through a process, which can be plotted in a simplistic manner as represented by a bell curve. During the early phase of the bell curve, rising interest rates do act as a deterrent to inflation. But it is not the simple balance between interest rates and spending which is dictating the trend. The third component in this contango is confidence. Rising interest rates will induce greater savings and less spending, provided the consumer has confidence in government and banks along with a firm belief that prices are not going to rise more than the rate of interest return. However, if that confidence in government and/or banks declines, consumer spending rises even faster than before, as is the case in Argentina during the 80s and 90s and Germany during the early ’20s.
In the case of a gold standard era such as the Great Depression, the rate of spending declines but the hoarding of gold increases. Hyperinflation, such as in Argentina in the 1980?s and Germany in the early 1920?s, emerges when the consumer cannot hoard gold and thus he hoards tangible goods which causes prices to escalate rapidly. When gold is available, as was the case in the AS during the 1930?s, money supply contracts causing deflation as consumers hoard their gold by withdrawing their saving from the banks. In each case, the consumer’s lack of confidence in the system remains the common denominator and the effects of deflation and hyperinflation become indistinguishable in the final analysis. If interest rates and their effect upon the system were truly linear, then neither trend would be possible. Government could theoretically raise interest rates fast enough to prevent hyperinflation or lower them fast enough to prevent depression. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve lowered its discount rate from 6% to 1.5% between 1929 and 1931, faster than at any time in history, with no effect whatsoever in relaxing the deepening depression. Interest rates rose rapidly during the hyperinflation of Germany and Argentina, again with no effective change in trend.”
“When we look at inflation in raw materials starting in 1986, government’s attempts to curb inflation through raising interest rates at this time reduces the incentive to expand production. Hence, shortages prevail and prices rise. Raising interest rates to curb inflation only works on the left side of the curve when hoarding and speculation prevail. But at some point in time, higher interest rates cause higher costs and lower production which fuels inflation.
I nominate stocksage1 to the “Prisoners” secton of the iBC game. Last I read his bond was set at 105k (3x his yearly income)
Dr. Fly says….
“…With TLT up near $130, we should be spiraling lower. I cannot explain why the market is so strong…”
DOW did come down a little at the end of the day; but still an enigma. Maybe down tomorrow after the retard Bernanke is done. (is it just me, or does Bernanke appear retarded?)
The price of food(corn soybeans wheat) is the bulls worst nightmare right now. Will the clam or the eurotrash starve the world with the press this week? Where is the fire? Other than the piigs eternal nein nein nein blow up show there is not one. Greece is Spain is Ireland is Portugal is etc. Who fucking cares anymore? The siesta countries are finished. There is no sunshine when the peasants burn down your mansion or your diamond mine, oil rig, sugar plantation after the game(clams of the world) spike prices to starvation levels.
Tax the rich and subsidize food. The government is already doing the second part to some extent.
Food stamps for all making below $40K
The resource rich third world do not have foodstamps. That is the problem. Does one lose the vacation mansion coal mine etc just to keep the SPY from falling right this moment? The real money is in resources(production of everything)not the ghetto game. The elite are only elite if the slaves can afford to eat. Peasants do not care if there is a drought. Food gets too high they riot(arab spring).
Treasury yields can continue to go down without the stock market dropping. Treasuries are being bought by foreign governments on a larger scale than ever before, which doesn’t require the sale of US stocks
Another 25 percent markup on the Long Bond and the US=Japan… does this seem likely? Depending on the index mix this would TLT a little higher than 160.
We won’t knoooow….Till Jackson Hoeeeee.