Obama Gave Iran Our Drone Technology

I’ll get to stocks later, but I wanted to mention this first. If you recall, in 2011 a top secret drone was “captured” inside of Iran by the people with towels wrapped around their heads. Instead of having the drone destroyed, which is always the preferred course of action during situations like this, Obama elected to let the Iranians have the drone. There is no two ways about it.

Well, BEHOLD (try not to get too mad)

Iran has long claimed it managed to reverse-engineer the RQ-170 Sentinel, seized in December 2011 after it entered Iranian airspace from its eastern border with Afghanistan, and that it’s capable of launching its own production line for the unmanned aircraft.

After initially saying only that a drone had been lost near the Afghan-Iran border, American officials eventually confirmed the Sentinel had been monitoring Iran’s military and nuclear facilities. Washington asked for it back but Iran refused, and instead released photos of Iranian officials studying the aircraft.

The video aired late on Wednesday on Iranian TV shows an aerial view of an airport and a city, said to be a US drone base and Kandahar, Afghanistan. The TV also showed images purported to be the Sentinel landing at a base in eastern Iran but it was unclear if that footage meant to depict the moment of the drone’s seizure.

In addition, the TV also showed images of an Iranian helicopter transporting the drone, as well as its disassembled parts being carried on a trailer.

In another part of the video, the chief of the Revolutionary Guard’s airspace division, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, said that only after capturing the drone, Iran realised it “belongs to the CIA.”

“We were able to definitively access the data of the drone, once we brought it down,” said Gen Hajizadeh.

He described the Sentinel’s capture as a huge scoop for Iran, saying that at the time, Tehran did not rule out a possible punitive US air strike over the drone.

Iranian officials have accused the US of stepping up its espionage activities against Iran as part of intensified Western efforts to force Tehran to abandon its uranium enrichment programme, a key aspect of its disputed nuclear programme. The US and its allies suspect Iran may be trying to develop atomic weapons, a charge Tehran denies.

In an attempt to embarrass Washington, Iran has claimed to have captured several American drones, most recently in December, when Tehran said it seized a Boeing-designed ScanEagle drone – a less sophisticated aircraft – after it entered Iranian airspace over the Persian Gulf.

US officials said there was no evidence that the latest claims were true.

How generous of our government to bestow space aged technology to people who would love nothing more than to stick a few nu-ku-lar devices inside of our Christmas trees.

I am not interested in buying beaten down sectors right now. Frankly, if XYZ isn’t going up in this market, it isn’t worth my time. But these industries of vast underpermance should be monitored and considered, only after they’ve started to turn the corner.

Deep in the bowels of iBC, I have a sector correlation tool, which isn’t for public consumption, that compares 194 industries to the SPY over a number of time frames. What you want to do is track the best stock per sector and wait for the turn. I don’t know if there is another massive sector turn around to be had, similar to housing mid 2011, but you never know.

Here are the industries that have underperformed the SPY over the past 12 months.

It’s clear to me that commodities have been the big underperformers. Steel, aluminum, gold, silver and oil have markedly underperformed the S&P over the past 12 months. In the next post, I will provide a consolidated watchlist, encompassing stocks from each industry mentioned above.

Your new Energy Boss, Ernest Moniz, is going to save the planet, one giant nuclear power plant at a time

News just broke that Obama is going to appoint MIT physicist, Ernest Moniz, as new energy secretary. He’s always been a nuclear bull, due to his global warming beliefs. Here is an article he wrote, post-Fukushima–still a flagrant, arch fiend, nuke joneser.

This essay is quite different from what I would have written pre-Fukushima but it’s pretty hard at the moment to think about anything nuclear from a different reference point. Fukushima has reopened the global discussion about the future of nuclear power. Several factors had led many countries to consider expanding their nuclear capacity, reversing phaseouts or initiating new nuclear programs. These include a very good safety and reliability record for the last decades, increasing concern about the risks of climate change and a concomitant recognition that enormous amounts of additional electric generating capacity will be needed without increasing greenhouse gas and other polluting emissions. Exactly how the new debate will end will remain unclear for some time, as the events and responses in Japan are investigated and understood fully, and as safety systems, operating procedures, regulatory oversight, emergency response plans and spent fuel management are reexamined for currently operating reactors.

Nevertheless, some outcomes are a good bet: the cost of doing business at nuclear reactors will go up; and the expected relicensing of forty-year-old nuclear plants for another twenty years of operation will be given a hard look. Indeed even the license extensions already granted for the majority of the 104 plants operating in the U.S. might be revisited. These plants, like those at Fukushima, rely to a large extent on active safety systems in case of accidents or natural disasters.

The consequences of such outcomes could be great. New nuclear power plant construction is already challenged by high capital costs, and increased capital and operating costs could be the last straw for many projects. If the anticipated life extensions are not realized to any appreciable degree, we will be faced with replacing tens of thousands of Megawatts of non-emitting generation. For the U.S., this is not an immediate problem since the end of the original forty-year reactor operating periods will not be reached for most plants for a while, and we have both substantially underutilized natural gas generation and lots of natural gas. Natural gas does have emissions, but far less than coal, and will serve as a bridge to a very low emissions future. However, the challenge of developing and demonstrating “no-emissions” options for 2020 and beyond is an immediate challenge, given the significant timeline from R&D to regulatory approval to market. Next generation nuclear plants with advanced passive safety systems are among those options, including small modular reactors (SMRs).

SMRs come in a variety of proposed forms, some based on the same underlying light water reactor (LWR) technology that is used in almost all nuclear plants today, while others are based on gas or metal cooled designs. They range in size from ten to three hundred megawatts. None have been through a licensing procedure at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and this is a time consuming process for any new nuclear technology — especially those that are farther away from the NRC’s established experience and procedures.

A major advantage of SMRs is that their small size compared with LWRs (whose size is typically 1,000 Megawatts and now going up to 1,600 Megawatts) means that the total capital cost is more in the billion dollar range rather than a significant multiple of that. Capacity can be built up with smaller bites, and this may lead to more favorable financing terms — a major consideration for high capital cost projects that take years to license and build. Still, the SMR must come in with a cost that is also competitive with LWRs on a unit basis; that is, the cost per installed Megawatt must be comparable or less. The LWRs have been driven to larger and larger size in order to realize economies of scale. The SMRs may be able to defeat this logic by having factory construction of the SMR or at least of its major components, presumably with economies of manufacturing, the ability to train and retain a skilled workforce at manufacturing locations, quality assurance, continuous improvement and only fairly simple construction on-site. The catch-22 is that the economies of manufacture will presumably be realizable only if there is a sufficiently reliable stream of orders to keep the manufacturing lines busy, and this in turn is unlikely unless the large number of designs is winnowed down fairly early in the game.

A 2020 SMR option will be available only if we start now, and even then it will be tight. Prior to Fukushima, the Obama administration submitted to the Congress a proposed 2012 budget that would greatly enhance the level of activity in bringing SMRs to market. LWR-based technology options would be advanced towards licensing, and other SMR technologies would be supported for the remaining R&D needed to have them follow in the licensing queue. The program is modest but sensible. Obviously the Federal budget deficit makes it difficult to start any new programs, but a hiatus in creating new clean energy options — be it nuclear SMRs or renewables or advanced batteries — will have us looking back in ten years lamenting the lack of a technology portfolio needed to meet our energy and environmental needs economically or to compete in the global market. Let’s get on with it.

Source

Nuclear stocks of note are CCJ, DNN, LTBR, NLR (etf), USU, URZ, URRE, URG, URA (etf), UEC, ES, GVP, PESI.

If solar stocks can triple in price, I see no reason why uranium, nu-ku-lar, can’t have a brainless run on some positive sentiment. Hell, the coal country rejoiced over Romney poll data for a solid 6 months.

I created a housing resurgence index almost two years ago, in order to keep track of the sector. Over time, I’ve added names, after becoming better acclimated with every facet of the industry, from financing to bolts. Have a look at the index’s chart since 2009, a 4 bagger.

For all those still in denial of the housing boom to come can cordially stick their heads in a cannon, staring at a cannonball wrapped in this chart.

The health of the market has never been better. Ignore the cat calls from the people with deformed brains. We’re going higher. It’s safe to head back into your underground harems and partake in sexual endeavors, if that’s the type of thing you’re into.

I closed down 1.1%, led lower by WNC/USG, partially offset by FBHS, VHC and GS.

There is no need for watchlists, young man. Everything is about to go higher.

Some of my meaningful positions are getting hit hard today, namely USG and WNC. This is post earnings “sell on the news” action. Both companies reported solid earnings, but not enough of a surprise to keep the momentum going.

Does that mean the stocks are done going higher?

Absolutely not.

Hot money bought the stocks for a pop and when they didn’t get it, they sold. The core fundamentals are still there, which is why USG is my second largest position. Keep in mind, before you know it, the summer months will be here and the warm, balmy winds of black Africa will produce hurricanes of revenge and scornful death, delivered by way of Poseidon to kill the descendents of slave traders– inside of their lavish trailered homes.

When it occurs, I reckon people will sashay over to their local Lowes to pick up some wallboard. At that time, “The Fly” will be smoking cigars, clad in something made from linen, drinking something with rum in it, ordering his slaves to fetch another cucumber sandwich, else be whipped with hot slices of pizza (no plantation).

I am down 1.3% for the day, erasing yesterday’s wins. RS is ripping; but the position is so infinitesimally small, I am almost embarrassed for having it.

Onward.

The NIKKEI soared by more than 3.5% yesterday, which is causing a flurry of inflows into the Wisdom Tree ETF, DXJ. Once again, Wisdom Tree is publicly traded and their assets under management are now north of $21 billion. As the attractiveness of Japanese markets enhances, plebs are pouring into these ETFs, which will lead to great earnings per share at the parent company, WETF.

I see no reason why BLK, the owner of iShares, shouldn’t buy WETF and consolidate the businesses.

USG earnings were very good. The stock is down, but rest assured, business is on the incline. I am a buyer on dips.

WNC reported a good number too. Again, a buyer on dips.

The television box is trying to make a big deal over the flurry of recent deals. DELL went private, MUSA, VMED and APKT caught buyouts and the ipo market is waking up. Well, what else do you expect to happen when the market is at new highs? Let’s not be stupid and read more into this than need be. Deals will always get done. But there is always more deals in good times than bad. That’s human nature.

I like a lot of names right here. I am watching the homebuilders closely and would love to buy BZH back. However, I am about 94% invested and some of my stocks are “pausing” today. Whenever my stocks “pause”, I like to reserve cash for potential average downs.

Finally, I am long RS from the 40’s. This stock has been on a non-stop rip higher, spiraling higher today after announcing the purchase of MUSA. This makes no sense, but I will take it, nonetheless.

For the first time in ages, I am pleased with my Federal government, taking action against the perverts at S&P. First of all, they shouldn’t have downgraded the United Steaks. That’ll learn them. And secondly, they fueled the housing bubble with fraudulent ratings because their customers wanted AAA.

Anyone in the business of money management knows to laugh and urinate on the credit reports of the ratings agencies. It’s time to shut down these bucket shoppes and allow for some credible people to emerge.

I don’t think it’s too harsh to say S&P, Moody’s and Fitch were more than stupid during the housing bubble, but criminally fraudulent.

Just like the good folks from Arthur Andersen were put out of business post Enron, I see no reason why the same shouldn’t happen to these ratings agencies.

I am holding a big balled sized position in WNC, heading into earnings. By posting this, I am effectively jinxing myself. However, I’ve read over so many analyst reports and they all seem to think WNC is going to beat and guide up.

By saying that, I just un-jinxed myself, as most of you read that and immediately sold the stock short.

2013 is all about the kill, eating my prey and keeping my blood running hot. During 2012, I took the path of massive cowardice, by stabling myself with large cash positions–afraid to lose my penis in a rapid carrot chopping expedition.

No more, my fair weathered friends from internetland. “The Fly” is big and bold and punches the heads of the stupid, while kicking the sternums of the pathetic.

It’s alpha male time and I am ready to receive my fortune.

The Federal Reserve has answered our prayers and given the market the shot of adrenaline it needed. We all needed it, after yesterday’s dreadful market crash.

I took the opportunity to kick out my final loser, selling all of ELLI, in order to add to my MOS position. There will be losses along the way. But as long as we remain faithful to our core beliefs, everything will work out in the end.

The Japanese yen is being dismantled, yet again. Very soon, the zany South Koreans are going to get pissed off by this yen walk down and counter with their own central bank action.  We are in the midst of a global currency war and Japan is winning!

NMR, MTU, SNE, HMC and TM are long term buys.

Kyel “the idiot” Bass has taken the side of Daniel Loeb in the battle against Ackman for the destruction of HLF. I am starting to think Ackman is going to drop feces on the faces of all of these strange men. As much as I like Ichan, let’s face it, it’s all for the wrong reasons. I like him because he is a black hearted villain, not because he’s intelligent or can speak the english language correctly. Ackman, although a great big pervert, is smart, cool and collected, sort of like David Einhorn–add in depravity.

Into the planting season, I cannot think of a better, safer, place to invest than agriculture. MOS is my top idea for February, aside from the powerball nature of my VHC position; I believe MOS is going to make me a great deal of money going forward.