CASHED OUT

I can’t say that I am happy about this outcome. I am glad to have sold PANW on Friday. But, on a whole, my departure from TLT, EXC, ETR, into spec names has been a let down. First, my sale of IFON was divine. I took half of the proceeds and bought SOL. I just sold SOL for a 20% loss. Considering where IFON is trading now, I still made out ahead, sort of.

With the TLT-EXC-ETR funds, I had purchased PANW, EMES, ARWR and BITA. I sold all of those stocks earlier today and have moved my trading holdings to a 40% cash position.

With the proceeds of PANW, on Friday, I purchased CYBR and am still holding it.

I am going to pay homage to “Robert” aka Analyst Bomber for calling GTAT’s bankruptcy far in advance of anyone else. He’s always been vocal about the company, but really dialed it up over the past few weeks.

Here are some of this recent notes in The PPT.

He also made a fantastic PEIX call, earlier this year, suggesting it was a steal sub $4.

Well done sir.

I had a lot of coffee this morning and got excited with the futures. After seeing this market trade for the past 40 minutes, I can say with unequivocal certainty that it is complete shit. The only torsos getting tossed, idly, into lit fireplaces, is my own. I don’t even want to discuss it, really. If I mention these ticker symbols that disappoint me, like a gay son, I will lose it.

Naturally, if the stock Gods wanted to reward me for my patience and vigilance, they’d jack the market higher, from now until the close. But this market has reversal written all over it, as the ebola, death ray, crowd, firmly take control of the reigns, ushering us into the fucking furnace.

Do you smell that? It’s the aroma of your own flesh being broiled in this short squeeze BBQ (so what it makes no sense). You cannot say your weren’t amply warned. I gave you days in advance notice and I told you we’d run like a fucking lunatic out of hell this week. Well, here we are, on this frigid monday morning, with S&P futures sharply higher. What a surprise.

Theoretically, should the market reverse and go lower today, that would be a negative development. But you know it’s never going to happen. Even though, as I write this, there is a dinstict uneasiness of a jinx at hand; but that too will not happen.

The sun and the moon, along with the stars, are all aligned in sublime harmony to take your entire torso and fling it into a lit fireplace.

OCTOBRE SHALL BE THE MONTH OF CHAMPIONS, the month we take the market back from the hounds who’ve been plaguing us for the past month. You will be dispatched and discarded, along-the-side-of-the-road, like pheasants or squirrels.

I know this is a rather aggressive diatribe and many of you aren’t ready for it yet. It almost has a sort of “una-bomber” like tinge to it, at 9am in the morning, on a freezer-like Monday. But it must be said. Therefore, I have spoken these words for the benefit of mankind.

This is my manifesto.

I’ve been an oil man ever since the day I was born. I was raised under a derrick in Brooklyn, NY, bearing witness to the black gold spewing from the ground–making all of the local peasants sick from exposure.

I understand that the price of oil has dropped a good 20% in recent weeks, sending most small drillers, those ill-equipped to handle the burden of price fluctuation, inexorably, into the ‘fag box.’ However, all of that is about to change.

The godly run in the United States dollar will ease up and commodities will catch a bid. God willing, the maniacs in the middled east will begin to truly cut each other’s heads off in earnest, seizing ports and strategically vital oil producing districts of their barren lands–lending, mind you, to a sharp rally in the price of WTI and Brent crude. Our friends in the House of Saud prefer to have higher prices, but will punish others with lower prices, if need be.

I cannot promise you that the recent rout in energy shares is over. As a matter of fact, it has a bit of a 6th inning feel to it. But I will tell you this, very simply: this drop, this seasonal malaise, will ultimately lead to the best trade of 2014. This is it. Nothing else will offer you ‘castration level’ returns, barring some sort of crazed run in the shippers–which might occur in December. Jot that down.

The price of these energy stocks are factoring in $65-70 crude. This is a mistake and the market will eventually come to realize that.

Here are some ideas, with 3 month returns next to it.

SDRL -38%

PDS -31%

WRES -21%

HK -51%

WTI -35%

OAS -29%

RDC -22%

ESV -28%

HERO -50%

KEG -48%

AREX -40%

BBG -26%

NBR -29%

CRZO -29%

VNOM -29%

CHK -26%

TLM -22%

UPL -23%

SGY -37%

CVEO -52%

GDP -51%

Now tell me, does this look like a rational 3 month decline or something more relating to hedge fund liquidation and capitulation?

First let me start off by saying there are just 5 spots left for the first ever, and most likely last ever, iBankCoin VIP cocktail party. If you wish to mingle, get inebriated and eat like a glutton, act soon. Pricing for general admission is still at the early bird rates. Once we pass a certain threshold, they will be going higher. I realize it’s a bit of a commitment and your wives don’t trust you. Nonetheless, it is your duty, as gentlemen of iBankCoin, to attend and grace us with your presence.

As far as this market is concerned, I know many of you are wondering how the market is up so much, yet your stocks are struggling. Just 70% of stocks are higher today and the energy sector is getting de-balled. Before I give you my opinion, just know, lower oil prices is bullish for retail, restaurants and chemical stocks. I expect names like TJX, M, ZOES and PNRA to continue to do well. Additionally, airline stocks will guide up, thanks to jet fuel expenses dropping. Lastly, shipping companies spend upwards of 60% of their operating expenses on fuel. I don’t have a stock for you there, as the industry has been wrecked. Nonetheless, it’s important to understand that lower oil is a big plus for numerous industries.

Cramer thinks Saudi Arabia is lowering the price of crude, on purpose, to bankrupt US oil producers. If true, that’s a brilliant plan. However, it will only result in giant oil companies buying up the property for pennies on the dollar. US oil production will continue, regardless of whether or not Saudi Arabia likes it. The true loser in all of this is Russia, so there are plenty of cross-currents in this story.

But one thing is for certain, at least from my perspective: today means nothing. If you made 0.1% or more, it was a good day. If you are underperforming, do not be concerned. This phase of WTI and Brent liquidation will pass. All of the sellers in EMES and SLCA will be castrated and the market is going to explode in October.

I am expecting the NASDAQ to lift off anywhere from 5-10% in October, climbing the wall of worry to new post Ebola highs.

Today’s action is nothing more than an opening salvo in what will be described as the ‘Greatest 4th Quarter Run’ in recent history.

Now you know my feelings.

Ciao (the most annoying form of goodbye).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdL2XSg-o-w

I added to my CYBR position, making it a decent sized one–as it becomes of the newly minted and prized insane IPOs to bless Wall Street with its presence.

This is a trade.

I sold off 75% of my PANW position, post roll. I will keep the remainder. With the proceeds, I have a hot pick, forthcoming.

The jobs numbers came in much better than expected, at 248k. The unemployment rate is down to 5.9%, most likely due to massive quantities of misanthropic persons being transferred to their local FEMA internment camps for expeditious liquidation. Futures are up 13 and you’re on the cusp of annihilation.

Good news is good news. Bad news is good news.

Bull market.

NOTE: Apologies will be accepted between the hours of 9am-10:30am, not a minute later.

I am in the midst of an epic turn, now up more than 1% for the day, from down 2.9%. Let this be a lesson for your n00bs out there: when the market is deeply oversold, like it was this morning, avoid short sales. Also, you should keep a close eye for reversals, as they will prove to be the very best trades of your life.

EMES is +13 from the lows. You name it, there was a ridiculous amount of money to be had by buying the lows. Like the old saying goes “buy when there is blood flowing in the streets.” If you were already long, more often than not, you’re better off shutting off the screen and eating a sandwich, than panic out of good stocks.

That being said, we’re not out of the woods yet. There has been extensive technical damage afflicted to this market over the past two weeks. We need to see a reflation trade, led by oil, if we are to extend this rally.

I expect to see a lot of volatility going forward, people bailing out of the market now who were down large numbers earlier this morning. But let’s make one thing perfectly clear: the Russell 2000 was and is deeply oversold. The way The PPT algos works is like a rubber band. It uses reference points of oversold and overbought conditions, based off the technical factors of over 4,000 stocks. When the levels reach a critical point, the system screams OVERSOLD or OVERBOUGHT. More often than not, the algorithms that we’ve developed to measure the market, proves to be fruitful. With TNA, The PPT flagged its 2nd lowest score ever, since it was founded in 2008.

84% of the time, the system has been right, for an average return of 11% over 10 trading days.

That’s my edge. That is what kept me confident that we’d turn the corner and melt faces off like wax on a candle.

As all things in life, nothing is guaranteed and history doesn’t repeat, it only rhymes. But it’s an edge; and that’s the difference between a winner and a loser.