iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,436 Blog Posts

BURN IN HELL JANET YELLEN!

Going against her better judgement, I disobeyed Grandma Yellen and averaged down in shares of RUBI. Its been an awful performer and I really shouldn’t be buying more of this offal. However, it’s down 9 consecutive days and this whole sell off due to Janet Yellen suggesting valuations are stretched in social media and biotech has me sick to my stomach.

yayo

The manipulator in Chief doesn’t like the market to be manipulated. How ironic.

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BUBBLELICIOUS

Oh no, all of the bubble basket stocks are sinking again. I think it’s abundantly clear to me, as it was for the banks from 2007-2009 and the dot coms from 1997-2003, that whatever sell off afflicts this market it is going to be led lower by “the bubble stocks.” You didn’t think the internet sector first started going down in 2000 did you? Please. Those bastard stocks knifed lower from 1997, even before that–as AOL and Compuware jockeyed for dominance.

Whenever an industry is innovative and/or widely owned, like banks in 2007, the valleys are onerous to investors. They make you feel terrible when they’re sinking, joyous when they’re rising to new heights. Most people can’t stomach them and sell out at the bottom, after buying at the top. It all ends badly, as you know. However, how long will this movie last? That’s another question.

Today is a classic reverse from the top and punish everyone who has arms and legs sort of day, especially those buying the anointed sectors. Either we recover our losses and the market continues to streak higher. Or, the NASDAQ drops by a percent or two and you regret ever buying into the market.

Get your popcorn ready.

NOTE: In case you didn’t know, Janet Yellen “the meddler” took off her Fed hat and wore a stock analyst hat this morning, taking aim at social media and biotech stocks.

“…Valuation metrics in some sectors do appear substantially stretched—particularly those for smaller firms in the social media and biotechnology industries, despite a notable downturn in equity prices for such firms early in the year.”

Unreal.

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Back to Food

Whole Foods is probably my no brainer trade of the year, heading into Turkey day. Their earnings misses have been nothing, compared to the carnage dealt out to shareholders–with shares off by 32% since last year.

Pick a metric, any metric: this stock is trading between a 15-35% discount based on historical norms.

The thesis play is two fold:

This is a premier brand tarnished and dragged through the mud as if they were selling cocaine on the side.

Pricing and margins will recover, especially with corn barreling lower, off by 12% in two weeks.

In summary, this is a prime target for activist shareholders, private equity guys who clamor to snatch brands like Whole Foods. I haven’t initiated a position yet, because the time isn’t ideal. However, if I was stuck holding just one depressed stock, a fallen angel of sorts, I wouldn’t lose a minutes rest owning WFM at 21x 2015 numbers.

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Spent the Day Dealing with Retards

I work with retards.

Aside from talking with an old client, I spent the lionshare of my day ignoring my investments, dealing with retards. My time is very valuable, yet I chose to waste it. Now, I am going to head on over to the gym and finish my body off for good, as I am already working through wrist, elbow and knee injuries. None of that matters frankly, as I am intent on going into that building and lifting heavy items. Sure, I might get injured in the process and my body might feel pain later on. But my mind is operating in ‘lunatic-phase’ and I am much better off lifting a bunch of metal than punching someone’s chest hairs off outside.

Having said that, my portfolio was about flat for the day, marginal gains–really stupid stuff.

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So What Are You Guys Doing?

I’m not having a great day. It’s sort of ordinary. I felt I deserved a ‘gluttonous, joyous, stock market day,’ but apparently the stock Gods felt otherwise. I am up around 0.8%, held back by the likes of RUBI and AG. Most of my positions are higher; but it doesn’t feel sustainable. The summer malaise is kicking in. I have to say, this isn’t the ideal trading scenario for me–but I will try to make the best of it.

I really, really wanted to buy PEIX. I missed it.

I wanted to buy LEJU and TEDU back. Those went higher today too.

As of right now, my #1 high conviction trade is TSL. Do you know why? Of course you don’t, otherwise you would’t be reading this.

The Obama administration is wrong for wanting to levy duties against Chinese solar companies. The WTO just ruled against us and said it was illegal. Obama is a servant to the international court and will obey. That’s my play. Plus anyway, starting a trade war with China is ridiculous and the stock is dirt cheap.

That being said, I have a problem holding onto stocks for more than a month, so I’ll likely be out at the first sign of greed. But this stock should continue to work all year ’round. Other chinese solar plays, like YGE, look good too.

That’s what I’m doing pal. What are you doing?

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Milk the Farmer

Back in the old days, I used to “milk the farmer” in a different way, by tapping into his profit stream, via seed and fertilizer plays. However, as of right now, I am looking to vanquish him, profit from his demise.

The price of corn has been spiraling lower and this presents a unique opportunity for companies with high corn input costs. Naturally, this isn’t a new trade and the stocks I am about to mention have already moved higher. But that doesn’t mean they are done. I am talking about beef, chicken, ethanol and possibly whiskey.

As you know, in this retarded nation, we feed our cows corn, for reasons unbeknownst to me. Perhaps we enjoy afflicting our citizenry with ecoli. Nevertheless, with corn lower, this means protein plays like HRL, TSN, PPC and SAFM pay less to feed their animals. On the restaurant side, stocks like RUTH, BLMN and DFRG might do better. Let’s not forget about the major chicken plays too, like CMG, YUM and BWLD.

On the ethanols side, PEIX, GPRE and BIOF might benefit.

Lastly, MGPI provides food grade alcohol to most of the bourbon manufacturers in this steakified nation of ours, also another play off of corns demise.

Interestingly enough, this reduction in corn hasn’t resulted in higher margins at the grocery chains, yet. Stocks like FWM, NGVC, TFM and WFM have been in the penalty box the whole time. Which leads me to my next conclusion: perhaps it’s time to look the other way. I am not buying the inflation trade and Americans are a gluttonous people. I don’t like chasing stocks like PPC, which I was buying below $5 a few years ago. However, I do like the idea that the grocery chains might soon see an uptick in margins, thanks to commodity prices coming back down.

It’s a contrarian play and you might have to wait a few quarters for them to work. Come thanksgiving, something tells me you’ll rejoice buying WFM, TFM and NGVC when no one else wanted to.

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FLASH: FUTURES ARE NOW UP 9 HANDLES

Gold and silver are weak. However, the rest of the market participants will be popping champagne corks in each other’s faces in about an hour. The reason for the melt up: an acute desire for gluttonous gains.

DEVELOPING…

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YOU WOULD BE WISE TO PREPARE FOR GLUTTONY

Each and every day I go to work hoping for the best. My dreams and nightmares are filled with fictional dialogue pertaining to the stock market: a hostile takeover here, an unsolicited bid there. As managers of other people’s money, it’s imperative that we prepare for all possible outcomes.

Ladies and gentlemen, I insist that you prepare for gluttonous stock market returns.

This post is underwritten by all that is good and plenty (extra candy shoppe) in this world. As tax paying citizens, members of society, it’s our duty to fight terrorism, both domestic and abroad. There are enemies amongst us, gentlemen. These creatures move in silence. They harbor enemies of the state and are intent on destroying all that is worthy with modern civilization. These blackguards are barbarous, throw-backs to an era when people milked goats in the backyard and stored gold coins under their pigsty: a pre-banking era, a time when women were made to be unequal, children worked as slaves inside of factories, people of color were traded like currency, and weak men were made to be catamites.

As founding partner of iBankcoin, I take a stand against these ideologues, these rapscallions, and would like to encourage all of you to do the same, through the explicit purchase of securities (market orders only). We will take out their offers until their heads explode and all that is just, democratic, and good in this world prevails.

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