We haven’t had an oversold signal in months. For the year, the account I dedicated for the algo account returned 12%.
It has been very inactive due to no signals and solely dedicated to only OS signals. In 2023 that is going to change, as I intend to also include the overbought algos into my trading. It seems, and this is new for our algorithms, the bear market has produced actionable and profitable trading opportunities on the short side.
Here is the data for QQQ overboughts in 2022.
That’s an average loss on the QQQ of 4% following an overbought signal over the past 12 months. That’s enough for me to determine it’s worth a shot, using inverse ETFs to position into this periods of bullishness.
Overall, I suspect markets will be bludgeoned in 2023, which fits my world view and makes me feeeeeeel nice at night.
I like when bulls pretend that the “pain trade” is higher, always higher, as if Main Street NPCs were out there taking money out from their 401ks to sell short. The fact of the matter is, the pain trade is always down, now and forever. We are having a bit of a rally here, which can be construed as a “relief rally” from all of the pain and suffering absorbed by longs during this months of December.
Krampus was hiding inside your Xmas presents and as soon as your children opened them — he jumped out and ate them.
Look at the surreal carnage done the past 1 month.
I had large directional bets to the downside heading into today, to hedge a 100% long portfolio — which is a PERMANENT fixture now that I am letting Stocklabs choose my stocks on a weekly basis. I lost a quick 10 grande and closed them out, not because I like to lose 10 grande — but because I had to adhere to what the market was saying.
You might not like the truth, but there it is.
Although tempted to apply upside leverage and take advantage of this rally, I will wait for the intra-day charts to mature so that I can draw lines on them and completely control the market with them.
We should be fine today and possibly tomorrow. Tax loss selling is done and most of the market retards have been wiped the fuck out. However, and do not forget this, January looms.
I feel at comfort in a market that is truthful. When I say truthful, in this instance, I mean sharply lower. There is no filler or fancy talk — just the resolution of prices. All of the talkers get their faces ripped off and the market regulates itself, casting aside the excess waste and perfidy that has helped us create yet another Federal Reserve bubble.
Once upon a time, when it suited me, I was a fan of the Fed. Now I have come to realize they are a criminal organization that is not only incompetent, but also operating with the modus of malice.
Markets are lower because they belong terminally lower. America as you knew it has ended, and in its replace is a curated cut out of a corporate hierarchy powered by poor genetics, just like the movie Idiocracy. One does not go long the nascency of Idiocracy.
I am PERMANENTLY BEARISH because that is the truth and to lie is to be degenerate and The Fly doesn’t lie because he isn’t degenerate. .
I would’ve drawn down 2% if not for my masterful trading. I have been taking 10-20% weighted positions in downside ETFs to hedge a 100% long book, to varying degrees of success. Today I managed to reduce losses to just 17bps, with a 40% short hedge into tomorrow.
As always, all trades are broadcasted inside Stocklabs.
Everything is rot. There are no safe haven in energy or defensive candy stocks. The only place you can seek refuge is in defense stocks, as we militarize and ebb ever so closely towards TOTAL GLOBAL WAR. You might not want it. But that’s exactly what you’ll get.
The idea of owning stocks here is hateful to me. I have been heavily shorting them all afternoon and came in here 40% short via 3x inverses. We are busting down and there is nothing in the way of lower prices now.
All eyes are on January, and a potential bounce. The problem with that, frankly, is Biden. He won and the democrats are FIRMLY in power and everything they do is counter-growth. Not only do they hate you, they also hate the market and they don’t care if you’re losing money, as long as their social agendas continue unabated.
I am currently down 15bps for the session, teetering between red and green — because I am a professional.
I warn you here and now: STOCKS WILL BE BLUDGEONED IN 2023 AND MUCH MUCH MORE. Earnings are declining for 4 quarters now and cash is burning faster than you know. There is no hope for any bull market, only in the market of war and the companies who make machines that kill people.
We were told fanciful stories of the entirety of Europe would freeze, Africa would starve, and America racked with inflation by year end due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They even blew up the gas pipeline to Europe and still, at this moment in time in the cold winter, Europe has not frozen, Africans still have food, and American inflation has abated.
Most interestingly, natural gas prices are now BELOW where they were before the war started.
I was told Europe could not subsist without Belarusian fertilizer and how oil would jimmy to $300 due to lack of Russian oil.
The truth is, Japan just resumed oil imports from Russia today, gas is getting into Europe from Russia through Turkey, and wheat is being shipped out of Ukraine like nothing is happening inside the country.
It appears rumors of shortages have been greatly exaggerated. The next potential black pill to scare people will be the US housing market this spring. Will it collapse? How could the plebs afford such prices at such yields? We will find out.
The major takeaway is to avoid getting caught in a thesis, a core belief that ignores price action. Had you told me MOS would be $43 by year end with the fertilizer shortage and inflation, back in March, I’d say you’re crazy. Nothing humbles a person more than being wrong and losing money because of it. The best chance we have at making any money in the market, especially in a bear market, is to trust our instincts but also verify and continuously check to see if our beliefs are actually resulting in progress.
For example, PERMANENT BOOLS thought they’d have a good Christmas following that wonderful Thanksgiving, but instead got the worst December since 2002.
Whilst you may feeeeeeel like this market rout needs to end, the fact of the matter is, plainly, it has only just begun.
This is the best I can do for you, to warn you of the fires to come. This doesn’t mean we can’t rally 500 NASDAQ over the next week. I am simply stated the overall trend is lower and that all delusions to the contrary should be discarded. The notion of finding a bull market inside of a bear is also folly, so stop looking at gold as a way to play the long side. The only way to play a bear market is to sell it short.
You might not see it now, but a great conflagration with Russia looms. To some, a war with Russia is desirable — mostly because THEY won’t be the one’s doing the dying. Even if all of the absurd rumors were true about how Russia keeps bumbling over themselves in The Ukraine, they’re still killing 1,000 Ukrainians PER DAY. How involved do you want to get in a situation like that?
Russian submarines sashaying near your faggot beaches, deploying leg cutting drones off your coast to get rid of American swimoooors?
Or how about they just cut the transatlantic fiber cables, ruining your Netflix and Chill schemes?
Or how about they torpedo all of those super cute LNG tankers floating across to Europe, turning them into little Chinese floating lanterns?
Or maybe they’ll nuke your home town because its home to an Lockheed factory and they figured, as all Russian villains do, that to nuke it makes more sense than not to nuke it.
Thank God nukes aren’t real.
Either way, we have the retarded Poles itching to fight and all of the Baltic retards with 1000 toy army soldiers hankering, mind you, for war with Russia — mostly because they’re MUHHHHHH NATO and American lives are cheap and used to spread its degenerate brand of GLOBOHOMO far and wide.
It seems, and this could be me black pilling again, there is no way out of this — when you have literal morons in charge of these affairs in DC and Kiev, clamoring for more violence and more ritualistic humiliation. If I had to bet, I’d bet on a hot war with Russia by summer, only because NATO cannot afford to lose in Ukraine and the cohesion of NATO is far more important to America than peace in Europe.
How does one play this?
Longer term: defense contractors, risk averse stocks, and selling short. My core thesis for 2023 is substantially lower prices. Although we dropped 25% in 2022, it was far too little all things considered. Prepare for many legs lower and prepare for the great apocalypse — for it is knocking at your door.
They don’t have any debt, but Tesla is behaving like they’re on the verge of bankruptcy. I can only assume the real reason why TSLA is down 40% over the past two weeks is because Elon Musk is releasing the Twitter files, essentially becoming a whistle blower against government corruption in their attempts to suppress speech. I know I know, you left wingers don’t like free speech and it goes against you’re fucking programming — but that’s exactly what is taking place — unvarnished and without filter.
Perhaps this all pertains to Elon’s leverage to buy the shitbag Twitter and that’s the reason TSLA is circling to zero. Or, perhaps their government subsidies will be stripped away from them, Elon arrested and imprisoned for treason. Either way, THEY are certainly out to get him.
It’s a very brave thing to see Elon buck against the orthodoxy, shoving their left wing dogma where the sun doesn’t shine. But I’ve seen this before, well not exactly this. But I’ve seen other “trailblazers” and it always ends the same: THEY WIN: we do not. Things go back to the way they were, wars happen, Americans stripped of more freedoms, everyone is trans.
As for markets: both cataclysm and doom are striking at once to cap off a year where fuckery reigned supreme.
The way my new trading goes, I’m 100% cash now and will allocate after 12pm. I’m down 64bps with a 10% TZA position in place. I walked into today 20% SQQQ and then traded out of it and also a quick SOXS trade. I was thinking we’d rally today, but this is what we got.
Over at Stocklabs, I have lots of pro tools in the wings and plans to generally upgrade the system to enable users to play with themselves with unending joy and happiness. Truth be told, the greatest upgrade to Stocklabs, however, will always be me. Over the past year, I’ve managed returns of +62%, mostly through betting against markets. The difficulty some members had following me was due to my former frantic pace of trading, which has been GREATLY cleaved, as I now wholly depend on weekly quant picks from Stocklabs, supplemented with my timely hedges or leveraged longs. I have not felt this confident in a stratagem in quite some time and can tell you now, without equivocation, 2023 is going to be a grande year of Señor Tropicana. BRACE YOURSELVES for extreme winship and gains of a ribald nature.
Since it’s the holidays and we like to keep it fucking light here at iBankcoin — I’ll update you on my recent obsessions. For those who follow me a long time, you may or may not be aware of the fact that I tend to hyper fixate on things and really learn the subject until I get “bored” or move onto the next thing. Presently, I am fixated on Pinot Noir wines, shetland wool sweaters, and amusingly Hemingway again. I’ve also been reading Dorothy Parker and have Sherwood Anderson on deck.
I’ve come to realize, as I age, I am different from others and my fixations are not shared by others. I have an extensive book collection and have been building a formidable wine collection as well. For Xmas, I received a humidor. I am not a big cigar smoker, but do enjoy pipe tobacco on occasion. I have come to learn, through the humidor community, improper humidity levels can in fact produce TOBACCO BEETLES, which is hilarious and also horrifying. I expect to be wholly consumed and obsessed with cigars by spring.
Markets should perform well for the balance of 2022, at least I’d like to thing so after 3 glasses of Santa Barbara Pinot.
I had believed in Santa Claus dropping into my Brooklyn apartment until the 4th grade, awfully late for kids back then. I remember when I found out he wasn’t real — from my Spanish teacher in class who glibly stated “we all know boys and girls — Santa Claus isn’t real.” Half of the kids laughed, but the other half, like me, were confused. When I told my mother about it, as usual, she stormed down to the school, which was a block away from my house, and offered my Spanish teacher some words of advice.
As an adult, it’s easy to disconnect oneself from magical things and ideas. Some parents never lie to their kids about Santa Claus in order to ground them and I am sure there is something to that, long term. However, I can tell you from experience and from the testaments of my children, who all believed in Santa Claus until middle school, that having that moment in time where things appear to be magical and special — believing in Santa Claus is just about the best thing a child could experience growing up.
One of the ways my mother got me to really believe was recounted by a story told by my grandfather. Sometime back in the 1950s, in the middle of the night, my grandfather woke up my mother and said “quick come to the window — Santa Claus just left.” My mother dashed to the window and rubbed the sand out of her eyes and eagerly gazed up into the snowy skies and swore she saw Santa on his sled. She told me this story and I told the same story to my kids and I am sure they’ll tell their kids.
Each night before Christmas my wife and I would leave presents near the tree from Santa. Learning from the penmanship mistakes of my mother (I always was curious why Santa had the same penmanship as my mother), we’d leave presents without labels knowing it was exactly what each child wanted. They instantly knew which present was theirs and receiving that gift from Santa only elevated the gratitude they exhibited. After receiving their presents, they’d run to see what happened to the carrots and cookies and milk they left for Santa and his reindeers and would laugh when all of the milk and cookies were gone, leaving just crumbs on the plate, and half the carrot was gnawed into (I was the designated carrot and cookie and milk consumer).
We’d get the present ideas to give to them from Santa by taking them to the mall to see one of Santa’s helpers. Whatever they asked Mall Santa for we bought it for them. When I was young growing up with my sister, my mother would do the same thing: take us to the mall and have us ask Santa for stuff. The only difference between my Santa and my kids’ Santa was my Santa didn’t get me what I wanted, but what my single mother could afford. My wife spoiled our kids rotten — but I am sure they don’t see it that way since being spoiled is on a spectrum these days.
Santa usually got me some generic stuffed animal and maybe some second rate toy. I do recall being disappointed in the quality of Santa’s toys, but also recall thinking “perhaps that’s how things are made up in the North Pole.”
Christmas Eve was always celebrated at my grandparents house. My grandfather would decorate his two bedroom apartment the very best he could, with paper decals covering the walls, in all rooms. He’d frame all of the windows of his 6th story apartment with those big colorful bulbs from the 80s and make a seafood feast, consisting of mussels, crabs, lobster, and shrimp. He’d also make anti-pasta for me and my sister and lots of pasta fra diavolo. I wasn’t fond of seafood back then and ate sparingly. I’d make struffolis with him with the pizza dough we’d buy the day before from the local pizzeria, which were these little dough balls draped in honey and sprinkles, infused with anisette. They were my favorite. On Christmas Day, which was also my grandmother’s birthday, we’d have a large feast served before 3pm (Italian dinner time) consisting of manicotti, sometimes lasagna, with a red sauce filled with sausages and beef neckbones. My grandfather would wake up at 5am, drink his Sanka coffee with toast and butter, sometimes and grapefruit, and begin cooking his sauce at 6am.
Those were the very best of times.
Merry Christmas and thank you for indulging me by reading my memories.
