NATURAL GAS COLLAPSES TO PRE WAR LEVELS

We were told fanciful stories of the entirety of Europe would freeze, Africa would starve, and America racked with inflation by year end due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. They even blew up the gas pipeline to Europe and still, at this moment in time in the cold winter, Europe has not frozen, Africans still have food, and American inflation has abated.

Most interestingly, natural gas prices are now BELOW where they were before the war started.

I was told Europe could not subsist without Belarusian fertilizer and how oil would jimmy to $300 due to lack of Russian oil.

The truth is, Japan just resumed oil imports from Russia today, gas is getting into Europe from Russia through Turkey, and wheat is being shipped out of Ukraine like nothing is happening inside the country.

It appears rumors of shortages have been greatly exaggerated. The next potential black pill to scare people will be the US housing market this spring. Will it collapse? How could the plebs afford such prices at such yields? We will find out.

The major takeaway is to avoid getting caught in a thesis, a core belief that ignores price action. Had you told me MOS would be $43 by year end with the fertilizer shortage and inflation, back in March, I’d say you’re crazy. Nothing humbles a person more than being wrong and losing money because of it. The best chance we have at making any money in the market, especially in a bear market, is to trust our instincts but also verify and continuously check to see if our beliefs are actually resulting in progress.

For example, PERMANENT BOOLS thought they’d have a good Christmas following that wonderful Thanksgiving, but instead got the worst December since 2002.