I Know Why You’re Short Stocks

Imagine a rocketship about to take off to outer space. Now picture yourself in a position to ride inside of said rocket ship for a 6 year trip, hidden from the crew, stowed away in the ass of the ship without food or water. Your plan is haphazard at best. You only care to ride in the rocketship for the sake of riding in the rocketship. You haven’t thought it through and now you’re hungry and desperate with thirst. But it’s too late. The rocketship is in outer space and the crew doesn’t know you exist, as you reside in the ass of the ship, stowed away from civilization.

Within one week hence, you will die. However, the autopsy will not show that you perished from thirst or starvation. There is one reason why you stepped onto that rocketship, and one reason only: you are a fucking idiot.

Nothing else can properly explain why you do what you do. One must simply chalk it up to a line drive off the head as a boy, or a genetic default that renders you incapable of making quality life decisions.

We all have bad trades, some last longer than others. Stubborn, brutish, ox-headed and aggresssive are some of the traits associated with man. I am guilty of possessing all of those qualities. But I am not an idiot, unlike you. I see what I see and know what I see.

They (central banks) have been gifting you guaranteed wins for almost 6 years now, yet you choose to continue this reckless path of moronic design; you pig headed jackass of a fool.

This period will be viewed upon as the meridian, the crown jewel, for investors, of all time–making the Gilded Age look like a time whence austere lifestyles dominated and strangled America’s rich. You will get to tell your grandchildren that you sat out the greatest run of all time because you disagreed with a set policies that you feigned to understand, in the simplest of terms, and opted to bet against the most powerful central bank mankind has ever seen.

Bravo (golf clap).

I sold ECR above $7.10 and purchased more PEIX.

I see oil is coming in. However, the run has been fanatical and it was bound to give back a little. Despite current weakness in oil, I still like SLCA, FMSA, DVN, OXY and of course PEIX. To hedge that, I went long decent size in AAL.

Frac sand plays are going ape-shit to the upside, following HCLP’s earnings. Bear in mind, these companies are highly levered to the shale and should see material downside revisions in their numbers. However, they are cash cows when times are good. Hence, bidders are bidding them up until the whites in the eyes of shorts pop out.

I am long both SLCA and FMSA. Aside from HCLP, EMES is the only other frac sand play public. CRR is related, but ceramics. These are some of the most heavily shorted stocks in the oil space. Needless to say, these stocks can continue their war-path higher, providing they receive the appropriate amount of tinder.

Using The PPT‘s new hybrid charting tool per industry, I started a position in AAL here.

1. The airlines are fucking cash cows.

2. They are excellent hedges against open long positions in oil.

3. They are oversold, and unlike oil; their fundamentals are improving.

4. Everyone hates them now.

Have a look at the Hybrid Chart of Major Airlines, courtesy of Exodus (still in BETA)

AAL is down 10% over the past two weeks.

To finance this, I sold out of laggards MDVN, TPH and XLRN.

Figures, we can’t have a harmonious melt up. Oil and industrials are doing good- but just about everything else sucks. Tech, biotech, retail, are in the pits.

Should we buy these dips and sell oil?

Maybe.

Today’s dichotomy of winners and losers is just another example of how fucked up this market is. If you stepped into today long tech and biotech, maybe a retail name or two, the names that have been working for the past 6 months, you are down. As I write this the NASDAQ is about to go negative.

This is not a buy and hold tape. Be nimble and be quick, otherwise you’ll find yourself in the city square without your dick.

I’ve been buying oil stocks, little by little, for months now. I’ve built up some decent sized positions and have reduced my cost basis on several losers to reasonable levels.

My largest oil position is SLCA, second ECR, third DVN, fourth PEIX (ethanol), fifth OXY, 6th MUSA, 7th TA, 8th FMSA and 9th CHK. I also own a 10th oil position in WRES, but it’s miniscule.

Holy shit I own a lot of different oil stocks.

My basis on SLCA is $35 and ECR is $6.38.

NOTE: I added to PEIX this morning.

This market is a proven thief and a rapist. It’s very nice to see futures up and TLT in the dirt this morning. However, let’s not pretend the game has been won. The market hasn’t even opened yet, so don’t celebrate wins that haven’t been realized.

Speaking of which: take those profits. Don’t pay attention to what anyone says, including me. When you’re up 10%+ on a short term investment, consider taking some coin off the table. For months, maybe even a year, this market has defecated on long term investors, and swing traders alike. Only the degenerate day trader has thrived.

That being said, I am in immediate need of a pornographic win. The small wins are for the rats, the sneaky creatures nibbling on the tip of the corn cob when no one is looking. “The Fly” eats the whole corn, not just the niblets.

Fuck 3-D printers and stay focused on where the winds are blowing, not just the wind.

The trade is stacked the other way. Everyone with a series 7 is short euros, oil and long treasuries. Those people are about to get their hands and feet chopped off.

I speak in violent tones because you people only understand the fist and the boot, savages from foreign lands, regular Mike Huckabees.

No one is giving oil a shot here, even ahead of the Forbes 400 billionaire February watermarking, something the Prince from Saudi Arabia has bribed and manipulated his own stock in order to get into a better position for. This list means nothing to you, slack-jawed Neanderthals, persons dragging knuckles atop the earth’s crust, unworthy of the very minimum levels of ‘respectable poverty’ (extra Ward McAllister). However, for big and powerful 100 pound men like Prince Alaweed (sp?), the Forbes 400 means everything.

All that aside, the driving season is ahead and the simplest bounce in the euro, coupled with a raging fucking rout in treasuries, will get oil going up to $58 by March. If that’s the case, I suspect shares of most small to mid capped oil companies will be 25% higher from current levels, if not more.

SLCA, as an example, is down 6% over the past week, while bedraggled illegal Mexican companies like SN are up 10%. Meanwhile, SLCA is a fucking cash generating machine.

With my money, I like SLCA, PEIX, DVN and ECR.

The downside to higher crude will inevitably mean airlines, restaurants and healthcare stocks trade lower for a bit. None of this shit makes any sense. But, lots of hot money has been toiling inside of hamburger stocks, as oil dropped lower. Should that trade end, those fucking hamburger bastards will check out and chase the shit I am selling.

All of this is very confusing, especially for new lads, fresh off the boats. Just know this: you have the best job in the world. All of your neighbors, stupid moron friends, and family members, are 100% retarded for not sitting in our illustrious ‘trading turrets’, bearing witness to such extravagance and splendor.

To the fucking day.

And here was The PPT‘s epic call for OIH.

Hence, The PPT wins again.

As you were.

I have something for you to think about. With gasoline prices in the dumps and the US consumer rich as fuck, coupled with the newly minted Uber/Lyft oligarchies, I’d wager that Americans will “consume” more miles this driving season since the great ‘tank craze’ in Nazi Germany, circa 1945.

Having said that, I am already long gas station plays, such as MUSA and TA. However, now I am taking a direct approach to the heart of the margins: ethanol.

As a deranged liberal society, we destroy our food and place it into our cars as fuel. Over the past 3-4 months, the price of ethanol has collapsed, alongside oil and gasoline. However, supply is constrained, unlike the bastard oil sector. With the driving season approaching and Americans rich as fuck, “The Fly” has entered a new order into his computers, to be long of PEIX in winship terms.