A Most Perverted Rotation

This post is going to be brief. Things in tech are working today: CRM, SPLK, YELP, DATA, WDAY, CSCO, GOOG, TWTR, AMZN.

On the other side of the ledger is biotech depravity. These stocks are falling by the bushel, being used to grease the treads of CSCO’s tracks. In Exodus, the biotech sector is at the very bottom of its Hybrid chart, suggestive that a bounce is coming. Considering the fact that tech has asserted itself in a leadership position here, along with banks firming up, I am constructive on this tape now.

When I say “now”, I mean for a short term bounce. The pain being felt in biotech is extensive. But, like all other biotech routs of the past, this too will be viewed as a unique buying opportunity. It never “feels” good to buy the blood. It takes immense courage.

I’ve selected a basket of stocks to properly gauge risk appetite in biotech. If you start to see these stocks recover, get long one of the laggards quickly, for they will clown rape shorts in a most heinous fashion.

ONCE
BLUE
ICPT
BIIB
JUNO
CLDX
RARE
AGIO
EGRX
SAGE
ESPR
XON
ZIOP
AFMD
ADRO

My current situation, up merely 23% for the year, off 9% from the highs, is a dire one. This all started when I sold AAPL north of $130. I recall the peanut gallery, the unclothed reader, was quite upset by it. You tossed feces towards my general direction and threatened me with arson. I ignored these ignoble statements and pressed on.

I then sold ONCE north of $70. Feeling victorious and without fear, I greatly bulked up on my CYBR position and took down some shares of VDSI, for sport rather than necessity. Within 48 hours of my purchase, I was down more than 20% in VDSI.

Chalking it up to a one off event, I then bought back the shares I had sold of ONCE, only to a lesser degree. I bought it at $60 and immediately watched, in horror, as it fell $10 in a single day. After it fell, it fell some more.

Now frightened of my own shadow, I had to reduce my CYBR position ahead of earnings. I sold into a $4 decline, locking in a 4% loss. I had predicted CYBR would beat estimates by .15 cents. They actually beat them by a little more than that; but the stock fell nonetheless. I still hold a decent amount of CYBR. But it isn’t my largest holding anymore, GG is.

Like a coward in the dark, I bought GG at $13.44 and then prayed for western finance to liquidate. I am ashamed to tell you this, but GG is barely above $14.25 now.

After selling a few other large stakes and a general reduction in a number of holdings, I stand before you now, naked, in a 50%+ cash position, watching ONCE descend into anarchy. It is my 9th largest position and I have no recourse other than to absorb the blows and “miss out” on all of the fun the rest of you are having in this market.

‘Tis is my life. You now know it all.

I happen to own the single worst performing biotech stock of the day. You can consider it to be an “inverse lottery winner”, where all the ticket holders are mugged and separated from all of their worldly possessions.

The stock is ONCE and they cure blindness.

It’s down on no news; but then again, there is news and that is the fucking stock is down more than 10%.

I had sold this stock a few weeks ago north of $70. I thought I was a clever little boy when I had bought it back around $60. I do not feel clever anymore.

Now an enterprising, virile man, would be in there now, buying up all the shares, while smoking on a big fat stupid cigar, and drinking a bottle of scotch. He’d punch holes into the sheetrock and rip up the floor boards, out of frustration, and then urinate on his windows. Instead, I sort of look at ONCE, then bite on a piece of toast, and then continue reading the newspaper.

I’ve lost the desire to cook inside of the cauldron. This ONCE is awfully reminiscent of my “Four Horsemen” ordeal of last year, when I chased 4 lunatic stocks into the dirt and ended up in a coffin of my own making.

I have an absurd amount of cash on the sidelines, more than 50% for days now. I have no desire to invest it at this time.

You can’t see it in plain day; but the cogs that support the wheel of this market are fraying, loosening about the joints, about to become unhinged. There are less and less places to hide every single day. The broader indices are masking a sickness that is spreading to the patient. I like to call it “The Chinese Fuckery.”

Some of you are annoyed by my warnings and subsequent cash position. I do not practice the black arts and I certainly do not partake in short selling, at least not since 2008. That being said, I strongly advise you to take up an avocation, for this market is about to be reduced to ash.

I’ve been spending my day ripping trees out of my yard with my bare-fucking-hands. I imagine the root to be the necks of the person(s) who plague me and I find Skeletor-like strength to uproot it and throw that shit like a javelin (no Lamar) into my adjacent woods.

Nothing is working, consistently. If you insist on buying something, go with AAPL, AMCX or SAM.

Biotech has been great; but God save us if risk appetite is removed from that sector. Those stocks can collectively fall by 70% and still be pricey.

Aluminum stocks are pricing in calamity. CENX is trading at 2008 crisis valuations, as well as FCX (Dr. Copper). Who can trust anything?

I am not going to go headlong into the commodity sector, against the gravitational pull of debilitating deflation.

One stock that offers interesting risk/reward here is SBNY aka “Best bank in America.” All the banks have been hit due to a tightening yield curve. But this is a seasonal thing. Yields always drop in August. If you were a fucking member of Exodus, you’d know this. Nevertheless, and it goes without saying, if TLT drops in September and rates begin to rise again, SBNY will be back to $160.

Off to see a movie.

Market is flat, with a shade of weakness. Are you buying into this melancholy or planning your day to completely ignore the market? I know what I’m doing.

Fuck this market and everyone in it. The market is a serial liar, pervert breaking in through windows raping people.

To actively invest right now is equal to being an accomplice to such a perverted person. You might as well help him break the windows, you disgusting malcontents.

In other news, CYBR is up nicely; but gold is down. I had a feeling gold would trade off. In Exodus, I pointed out how extended the sector was, based off our predictive hybrid score charts. I didn’t sell because I like how it has traded, counter trend to the market.

Don’t expect anything grandiose today. If anything, expect a resumption of the pain you felt yesterday morning. To be clear: I am not constructive, whatsoever, on this tape. As a matter of fact, I hope and pray to the gods, both old and new, that is gets poleaxed and dismantled.

Good day.

I am a little late to opine on Google’s moronic conversion into a company called “alphabet” because, frankly, it was too much for me to handle, with the markets in turmoil and all. Now that I’ve had time to mull it over, if you will, I am ready to offer my objective, completely unbiased, opinion.

For years, those maniacs, Larry and Serg (sp?, who gives a fuck?) have ventured off plantation to invest in pie in the sky ideas. Their core business, search, is now being threatened on multiple fronts and growth has slowed. Youtube is also under pressure; and quite frankly, GOOG hasn’t been a good investment for a long time.

UNTIL NOW!!!!

The good folks at GOOG have given up on their core business and instead have opted to take shareholder dollars and toss them idly into flaming barrels of garbage.

I do not jest.

First of all, a child created their new company page, straight out of the Sesame Street marketing book. Fucking Cookie Monster and shit.

What will this new company do?

Invest in crazy, batshit, hipster ideas, such as:

Calico (immortality and shit)

Boston Dynamics: (fucking robots that fuck)

Capital: (Google’s money burning arm)

Dumb ass self driving cars

Fiber: (space aged internet, son. Eric Schmidt even went out of his way to confirm that Fiber was in fact a “real business.” They will increase our internet speeds by 1,000x)

Life Sciences: (contact lenses with chips in them that will monitor glucose levels and shit, for persons with diabetes. No word on whether they will connect with local police forces to immediately blind persons who are wanted for crimes.)

Aside from all of these wonderful ideas, I propose they take a serious look at the following concepts.

– Traveling to Uranus, because it’s cool
– Curing cancer and also Tourettes syndrome
– Investing in Orbital Space Cannons (OSC) to be used for offensive purposes only
– Homes made from recycled water bottles and pepsi cans
– Robo-brokers, literally robots who are also brokers
– Invisibility cloaks (for persons who simply do not want to be seen (No bank robbers or rapists need apply)
– Clean energy harnessed from the fucking core of the planet (what could go wrong?)

On this news, the stock ripped higher, adding another $27 billion in market cap that could one day be used by Larry and Serg (the fuck?) to feed into their bionic alligator robotic arm and ass ideas.

Have you people lost your fucking minds? Oh, that’s right, you have.

Concerned? It doesn’t matter, since the dick-grabbers at GOOGL made sure your big fat stupid mouths remained shut, when they split the stock, raping GOOG shareholders of all voting rights.

Maybe these two clowns are the next Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger? Or, maybe they’re just fucking nuts?

Go ahead, barrel into your favorite Chinese flavored securities. The market has reversed from the depths of hell and have begun the process of kicking short sellers into active volcanos. There is a reason why I opt for cash over short sales. Today is a perfect example of not being able to trust a continued downside in the indices. The market was made to win. Set backs are always temporary. Sometimes temporary is fifty years, other times 50 minutes.

The point: just because we’ve rallied off the lows doesn’t mean we won’t fall into the crevasse tomorrow morning and sever an arm or two. I’d be reticent about exuding too much confidence here– but also refrain from selling short.

Frankly, selling stocks short is a game designed specifically for invalids and chimerical booze hounds.

An entirely plausible scenario is setting up to trick, trap and decapitate you.

By now you should have ample cash reserves. Your baser instincts will lure you back into the fold in order to buy seemingly “cheap wares.” At the first sight of strength, you will be tempted to pounce onto the market and dry hump it.

HOLD YOUR GROUND LADS!

Be content with making some money with some of the exposure you have left, as opposed to making all of the money with a spastically fantastical retarded 100% long equity exposure. 2015 has been a year of false starts. Even if we get a bounce today, who’s to say those mongrels from the far reaches of the world will not devalue their currency yet again, tomorrow? Neither you or I can predict the future, only Exodus can do that.

The summer slumber continues. Snore through August and light fire under your employees asses in September. I’ll be keeping my cash and will not reallocate until I am good and ready. This market is broken, for the time being. Therefore, all rallies must be viewed with a cynical eye.

China did it again, devalued their currency for pleasure, instead of necessity. But I don’t need to tell any of you about that. By now, you’re all experts.

Stocks are toilet bowling lower and the black flag is hoisted above Wall Street. Evil days have fallen upon us. You’re all worn out, withered and worried about the future.

A great man once said “there is no tomorrow.”

INDEUD

On the menu for today’s lunch is margin with a side order of call. You’re gonna love it.

By the way, gold is spring loading higher, validating the August seasonality magic that repeats itself on an annual basis.

When do we nibble?

I entreat you to be patient. Give the market some time to clear out and of course let Exodus be your friend.