Back in the Saddle

Wow, I was gone for two business days and so much has occurred. The Panama Papers were released, exposing corrupt leaders and politicians of their money washing depravity. I will need to dive in deep into those documents in order to find some worthwhile news.

Bossman Secretary Lew is putting the smack down on the fuckers who pursue tax inversions. This is significant news and it bodes poorly for the companies who are trying to lie and cheat the American public.

Allergen is swooning lower on the news.

Stocks closed very weak today, led lower by crude. I do believe crude will collapse at some point during 2016. I hope to be short when it happens.

In all, I feel invigorated and ready to get back into the mix.

Thanks to the iBC crew for filling in for me today. You did a great job, as always.

It was supposed to help the American taxpayer, wasn’t it? Come on son, you knew deep down the lobbyist had Obama and made him cede to their will.

There isn’t a rebuttal to the graphic I am about to show you. The cost for health insurance continues to rise, squeezing to death the embattled middle to upper middle classes.

The primary reason?

We are a center for profit.

I’m a capitalist. But this is disgraceful.

These scam stocks are diverging greatly from the Mother Hen, Facebook. While Facebook makes all the money, these other miscreants take up space with false hope and empty promises.

There was a time when YELP, ANGI and P meant something to the world. They offered excitement and growth and the American way. Then we came to find these companies to be nothing more than VC promoted Ponzi schemes and investors became reviled by them.

Today they’re running higher. Color me skeptical.

Aside from Facebook, what are the reasons that would cajole investors to own the above stocks? They’ve proven, without a shadow of a doubt, that they’re unable to operate efficiently as stand alone entities. Nonetheless, a new sucker is born every day.

Developing nations’ oddball currencies have just enjoyed their best run since 1999. The Grim Reapers at Goldman are here to tell you the party like it’s 1999 theme is lame and inexorably over.

Sell short the won and the yen is their best and most salient advice.

“These are good levels to short Asian currencies, especially the won, baht, Taiwan dollar, yuan and ringgit,” said Trivedi, Goldman’s chief emerging-market macro strategist in London, in an interview. “There are very direct implications for emerging-market currencies in Asia from yuan moves. We forecast more weakness across this currency complex.”

Goldman predicts a 14 percent plunge in the yen to 130 per dollar in the next 12 months, a level last seen in 2002, and a 7.4 percent drop in the yuan to 7 versus the greenback, which would be the weakest since May 2008. The won will decline almost 12 percent from current levels to 1,300 in the period, according to Trivedi, who recommends shorting the Korean currency as the best way to position for the projected reversal in Asian exchange rates.

Also, to hell with the ringgit. This is a subtle way of saying risk off friendo, in my opinion.

Alaska Air is buying Virgin? Really? The whole allure about ALK was the fact they flew routes that no one else cared for, or had a near monopoly on. With the VA albatross around their necks, ALK is just like the rest of the losers.

And look at the premium Sir Branson (the fuck outta here with the title) made those country bumpkins pay. You know a deal is shit when the acquirer’s stock  gets smashed.

Who even cares about Brocade buying RKUS, other than the 4 RKUS shareholders who just got lucky?

Trump would tell you that the Brocade people were low energy losers if he were blogging here.

Lastly, I’d like to touch on the genius of Elon Musk and his $35,000 iPhone. Not only is this new electric car capable of driving 215 miles without being plugged into the wall, but he created such hype around it that people are clamoring for the privilege  to own it,  treating the purchase of a car as if it were an iPhone. Truly amazing. The model 3 already has over 250k units sold, with the first 200k lucky lads getting a government tax credit of 7k to boot. Also amazing!

Sales have shattered expectations and the car isn’t even gonna be ready until 2017. This is one of the great brands to be reckoned with, a supreme standard in an industry rife with mediocrity. One could argue Tesla is the Apple of the automobile industry.

I don’t need an electric car; but I am tempted to buy the model 3, especially since the price tag is so low. I spend $35k on my asinine trips to Whole Foods every year. I could think of worse ways to spend 35 gs.

Overall, markets are slightly higher with a bullish bias.

Greetings from an undisclosed location, from vacation with the kids that has caused my feet to bleed. Nothing can keep me from posting this piece of news, so you know.

You are bearing witness of a great hedge fund manager blowing up, like a giant fireworks display in the sky. As spectators, all we can do is watch Bill explode and gawk at the pretty colors.

Right now, his fireworks display is flowing bloody red.

For the first quarter of 2016, Montauk Bill Ackman knifed lower by 25.6%, toppling over by 7% in March alone–a month marked by a most perverted and distinctive stock market rally.

His losses are so asinine, one has to imagine what’s going on inside of his big brain. Clearly, the man knows what he’s doing. Most people in the business have a hard time raising as little as 10 million. Bill was running nearly 20 billion at his heights.

But all good things come to an end. Pershing Square has been sacked by the catamites at Valeant Pharmaceuticals.

I’m not sure if all of you know this, since we’re all very busy and all, but I am fully disclosing all of my Exodus algorithmic trades this year, with real time alerts and precise p&l accounting. I started the beginning of the year with a $100k account for the sake of simplicity. More people in the world don’t have 7 or 8 figures to play around with, like most of my Wall st friends, who are complete assholes, by the way.

The purpose of this is to finally put my money where my mouth is. I’ve been talking up Exodus for a long time now, since 2008. But I couldn’t give up the individual stock trading, the gut driven trades, or the degenerate momentum stuff, until now.

After 2014 and 2015, I am done with it. After all, why should I literally kill myself, take years off my life expectancy, when I have this unbelievable mean reversion tool that’s hitting accuracy levels upwards of 80%?

I’m also gonna start doing these recaps once per week, not only to try to sell you on the virtues of the software that I created and put my soul into, but to really give you an understanding how it works and how, as the creator of the darn thing, I use it.

Last week was very important for three reasons.

1. My SPY long position progressed higher, coming off a systemwide oversold signal the previous week.

Here is my Exodus blog post announcing the trade .

2. My XLE short, which represented 75% of my account my Friday of last week, all done in a methodical way, one 25% tranche at a time, really started to diverge from the market. It looks really weak and ready to break lower. Unfortunately, I was forced to cover 1/3rd of my short on Friday. The way my system works is trades must close out on the 10th trading day, win, lose or draw. It’s the best way to mitigate risk, when using mean reversion as a method to place trades.

Here is my XLE post.

3. TLT paid a monthly dividend, reducing my cost basis below $120. This is the only non-Exodus position on my books. It’s because I have a bearish bias and want the safety and security of treasuries. I intend to hold this until the yield curve inverts. It has been one of my best trades ever, truly a work of sublime genius.

Overall, I’m up around 4% for the year, not a big deal. But more impressive than that is the low beta, low risk manner by which it was accomplished. When everyone was pulling their hair and teeth out in January and February, I was eating sandwiches and having a ball. Sure, the market went up a lot since then and some lucky people made a killing. I’ve been playing that game for 20 years. Believe me, no one can crush a bull market like me and no one loves to play these rallies like me.

Most of you already know that.

But this market is rigged, totally unreliable, and the economy is getting worse, which places the average investor at a stark disadvantage.

I have leveled the playing field for so many. Exodus is the real deal and I’m gonna prove it, week in and week out.

This is an epic film of the first magnitude, for numerous reasons.

For one, it’s one of the few films in cinema history that didn’t cast a speaking role for a woman. This movie travailed for almost 4 hours and the director and producers went out of their way to give zero fucks about diversity, casting zero women in the process. Pretty cool.

Peter O’toole played the world war 1 British soldier T.E. Lawrence in a plight to lead an Arab revolt against the fucking Turks. Unfortunately, it appears Mr. Lawrence might’ve been raped by some Turks in the process, in a very controversial scene.

If you’re impatient and enjoy the stupidity of Michael Bay movies, you will not enjoy this film. It represents quality of the very first class.

Here is my favorite scene, bestowed upon the gawking class by none other than the legendary Anthony Quinn.

Ten thousand apologies for the lack of rapid fire content on this magical reversal day. My predictions of doom have fallen short for the day. However, I beg you to take notice that I am positioned perfectly, short XLE with leverage, long SPY, long TLT. None of these ideas were granted to me in my dreams or by the shadows talking to me at my in house urinal. All of them were the product of Exodus.

The reversal was and is magnificent. The payroll numbers caused Fed’s Mester to offer more of her sagely advice as to when we should hike rates: she wants it often and with a relentless appeal.

Nevertheless, the bear class is a very weak and drug addled personnel. For the most part, these are unhappy people who just want the world to burn, so that everyone else could wallow in their misery. But the facts remain: this rally is of the stupid varietal and it will be checked hard within three weeks hence. That’s been my hard line in the sand all along.

I’m long SPY from $202.15 and will not sell it before April the 8th. My XLE short will begin to unwind soon. That’s about all I will sell about that to non-paying, bedraggled members of the reader class.

Wish me good fortune and a safe flight, for I have visions ofa Twilight Zone type creature menacing my engine amidst the lightning and the thunder right outside my airplane window.

Bearish, bearish, bearish.

No one gives a shit that MCD, TGT, WMT and some car washes added 215k jobs in March, when Fed’s Mester is practically slobbering over herself on teevee now, clamoring to hike rates.

I’ll make this simple for you to understand. Even some of you Bernie supporters will get it.

This rally was wholly predicated around the Fed easing up on rate hike increases. The strong data will give them the excuse they need to hike, or continue to menace us with threats of hikes.

Earnings season is here. They will not be good.

The rally will begin to unwind now.