I’m not sure if all of you know this, since we’re all very busy and all, but I am fully disclosing all of my Exodus algorithmic trades this year, with real time alerts and precise p&l accounting. I started the beginning of the year with a $100k account for the sake of simplicity. More people in the world don’t have 7 or 8 figures to play around with, like most of my Wall st friends, who are complete assholes, by the way.
The purpose of this is to finally put my money where my mouth is. I’ve been talking up Exodus for a long time now, since 2008. But I couldn’t give up the individual stock trading, the gut driven trades, or the degenerate momentum stuff, until now.
After 2014 and 2015, I am done with it. After all, why should I literally kill myself, take years off my life expectancy, when I have this unbelievable mean reversion tool that’s hitting accuracy levels upwards of 80%?
I’m also gonna start doing these recaps once per week, not only to try to sell you on the virtues of the software that I created and put my soul into, but to really give you an understanding how it works and how, as the creator of the darn thing, I use it.
Last week was very important for three reasons.
1. My SPY long position progressed higher, coming off a systemwide oversold signal the previous week.
Here is my Exodus blog post announcing the trade .
2. My XLE short, which represented 75% of my account my Friday of last week, all done in a methodical way, one 25% tranche at a time, really started to diverge from the market. It looks really weak and ready to break lower. Unfortunately, I was forced to cover 1/3rd of my short on Friday. The way my system works is trades must close out on the 10th trading day, win, lose or draw. It’s the best way to mitigate risk, when using mean reversion as a method to place trades.
Here is my XLE post.
3. TLT paid a monthly dividend, reducing my cost basis below $120. This is the only non-Exodus position on my books. It’s because I have a bearish bias and want the safety and security of treasuries. I intend to hold this until the yield curve inverts. It has been one of my best trades ever, truly a work of sublime genius.
Overall, I’m up around 4% for the year, not a big deal. But more impressive than that is the low beta, low risk manner by which it was accomplished. When everyone was pulling their hair and teeth out in January and February, I was eating sandwiches and having a ball. Sure, the market went up a lot since then and some lucky people made a killing. I’ve been playing that game for 20 years. Believe me, no one can crush a bull market like me and no one loves to play these rallies like me.
Most of you already know that.
But this market is rigged, totally unreliable, and the economy is getting worse, which places the average investor at a stark disadvantage.
I have leveled the playing field for so many. Exodus is the real deal and I’m gonna prove it, week in and week out.
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Based on Exodus o/b or o/s signals, Do you ever go short or long via options?
Re: 100 K As I recall a few years ago The Fly traded 100 K up to about 900 K via options. I don’t think he disclosed the trades, which I think was wise.
golfover123- You did not ask me, but here’s my view: If you scale your option position size to match the position size of the Exodus 100 K account, you might be OK. I say might because option trading is not exactly the same game as stock trading. In this case I mean simple trades, not spreads, etc.
Also many option traders take big risk for the size of their accounts. No judgement, just saying…
Option Addict would be the one to know about that. If you are new to the site, you can find him under the blogs tab at the top of the site here.
Here’s some interesting current financial news:
Greece challenges IMF over ‘debt transcript leak’
“A transcript, published by Wikileaks, shows the officials discussing ways of putting pressure on Greece, Germany and the EU to get them to wrap up talks.
One of those quoted suggests a crisis “event” may be needed to force a conclusion.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35953028
Glad to not be discussing trump v Bernie with you.
Me too. There should not be any versus at all, between these 2 groups of people, all of whom are against slashing Social Security, against unnecessary wars, against open borders, against “free trade” agreements that decrease American jobs. And we are all FOR all the opposites of these things.
We should not be doing “versus.” We should be getting together to elect a Congress that agrees with us on all the above issues. Such a Congress would have to be Independents and/or a mixture of parties. Because, on the whole, the major parties are not offering these needed policies– which is the reason why these 2 candidates are so popular.
Congress makes the laws. Even if neither of these 2 presidential candidates are elected, if Congress were in agreement with the above policies, they could make it so.
you should link your account to the new Schwager site http://www.fundseeder.com
I’m not linking my account to anything. I value my privacy.
Giving alerts in real time and making a full accounting of trades is more than transparent. I’m naked!
I do believe the market is rigged but
don’t agree that the economy is getting worse.
The number of job opening has really
gone to another level.Unless those figures
are rigged, we should be o.k.
OH yeah! Those retail jobs at minimum wage are gonna pump this shit up! USA! USA! USA!
Good point. A very high proportion of the jobs created are minimum wage or not much higher than that, so those workers can not make ends meet. While it’s better to have a job than not, a good economic recovery requires that a large proportion of the workers be able to pay for the necessities of life each month without going into debt to do so.
I wonder if the minimum wage hike shuffle has been being baked into retail all this time with gas prices cut in half? Is there really any sector boasting of or atleast showing signs of lower crude inputs yet? I’m looking at you airlines.
There is no evidence that all those job
opening are on the low end.I would argue
the opposite is true.
As long as those of us who are actually paying for Exodus get first dibs on your trades, I’m good. Don’t go giving away the farm.
It’s Exodus that you pay for, not the trades.
Fly what do you think of this?
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/big-money_traders_are_short_t-bonds_big-time/
aformalcat- I read the link. It says commercial traders are “…engaged in business activities hedged by the use of the futures or option markets.” Is it possible greater short interest could indicate they are doing more business in what they normally hedge with a short, as opposed to a bet on lower futures prices?
No idea… Was looking for clarification
how the fuck does SPY keep rallying every week?
I cant short it & can’t find a good reason to go long. wtf
Reasons for the stock market to go up, although it would still have pullbacks, of course:
We’re 7 months away from an election where the front runner is cozily in bed with Wall Street. That would seem to be good for the stock market.
The economic recovery, slow as it may be, seems to be continuing. A lot of jobs have been created, which is better than their not being created, minimum wage jobs though they may be.
The stock market seems to depend a lot on China, and some of the lies from China are positive lately. Or those could be truths coming from China. Who knows? Since China is so opaque, no one knows WTF is going on there.
Markets that are going up tend to keep going up until they don’t. The trend is your friend and all that.
I’m thinking it’s just low volume tax additions. One thing is for real, everyone hates this rally.
What about reasons for the market to go down?
We are supposedly inside the buyback blackout period so it should go down…
*election is gennerally irrelevant
*recovery is stagnant at best. slow gdp growth. YOY wage inflation sucks. no real inflation. money velocity at all time lows. ism data not stellar. corporate earnings & forward earnings projections been deteriorating since q3 2014
*china is a time bomb.
*trend is still bearish until 200dma slopes higher. still lower lows and lower highs.
Time will tell. If it does keep rising, people will also think of additional reasons why it ought to be rising.
Dude. Are you invested?
Yes.
3rd eye is buying the fuck out of ng right now.
This is the bottom on ng.
Time will tell is bullshit yo. You got to make it happen frog
I don’t make the market do anything. I notice the market doing something and so I invest.
Sticking with my long biotech everything , now with a cool stop. Adding to retails.