April Fool’s Day; The Party is Over

You’re probably thinking this post is an April fool’s day joke. Instead, it is your tombstone.

European markets are crashing through the floor-boards. Crude is lower. Casino stocks are reporting heinous revenue numbers out of Macau, as a rather ironic anti-graft campaign by the inherently fraudulent Chinese govt makes its way through them like a swarm of locusts.

The weaklings in France have capitulated like mice, once again.

Everyone knows crude is going lower, even the idiot George Bush. I am short XLE, like a champion.

Lastly, the ark floats. There isn’t any more room on it. I’ve accepted three lions and twelve mongoose today to board near the last compartments in the hull. If you want to board, you will have to share a cage with wild turkeys.

I’ll be busy all day in preparation for travel. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments section and I’ll get back to you later on.

No matter which way you slice it, these numbers are an abomination. Sure, they’re not as bad as last year’s -39% dread filled collapse. Moreover, these numbers are mild in comparison to 2014’s -34%. But to see this occur again and again without respite is demoralizing.

Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported March gross gaming rev (GGR) -16.3% YoY to 17.98 bln patacas ($2.25 bln) vs. -39.4% in March 2015 and -0.1% last month. GGR is down 13.3% YTD. Gross gaming rev peaked in 2014 and fell 34.3% in 2015 after the Chinese govt cracked down on money laundering in the VIP segment of the gaming market. Estimates call for a low double digit decline this year. Macau stocks have surged off the lows this year after WYNN/LVS discussed sequential improvement on their Q4 conference calls.

Shares of WYNN and LVS are set to trade lower. In my opinion, the gaming sector should get poleaxed.

Japan’s NIKKEI is down more than 500, or 3.1% on a very negative business sentiment reading–the worst in 3 years. The Hang Seng is down in sympathy, off by 281 or 1.36%.

The primary excuse for poor Japanese business sentiment, aside from a sick perverted affinity for robots and anime, is the strong Yen. Fucking HORSESHIT.

Nasdaq futures are down 14.

Here are some of the losers trading in Japan.

It’s all going to hell anyway. You might as well enjoy the slide lower.

As an aside, what’s up with the media’s obsession with taking pictures of random, often disheveled, asian men or women walking past a wall of high end monitors–which are displaying heinous stock quotes? It cracks me up, without fail.

Put your bias aside for a moment. Forget about the man, the legend, the myth: Donald J. Trump. You’re going to remember this election for the rest of your pathetic lives. Now some of you are so sensitive to read or hear of opposing viewpoints that you literally go out of your way to email me to stop blogging about Trump. I envision many of you having conniption fits, seizing up, at the sight of a pro-Trump article. But let me remind you, these are indeud very interesting times. It’s important that I be permitted to freely vent about it, else I will harbor great and innumerable resentments and disdain towards you for trying to restrict my free speech. Indulge me, if you would be so kind.

I take exception to your fascist ways.

At any rate, the greatest part of this election isn’t the specter of H. Clinton being convicted and jailed on the same day of her eventual inauguration. It isn’t the fact that some old communist NYC pretzel and knish stand vendor is taking the Clinton war machine on and beating it. It isn’t the fact that Ted Cruz look and acts like a villain and has been dubbed Lyin’ Ted by someone who has perfected the art of sophistry. It isn’t the fact that a one time hard-nosed Congressman, who was renowned for being an asshole, is now as gentle as Mr. Rogers–clamoring and begging to unite the American people behind his mediocrity.

The unique aspect of this election is the total and complete destruction of the checkered pant’d party called the GOP.

It is, without question, finished.

I’ve never seen such rage towards a front runner in an election, have you? Some of these conservative talk show hosts, like Mark Levin, are parroting the talking points of the MSNBC, CNN, NPR liberally programmed robots, to attack Trump like rabid jackals around endless bowls of berries and grass. Moreover and without question, the republican establishment hates Trump more than Hillary and Bernie combined. As a matter of fact, I am sure if Hillary and Bernie combined to form a giant puffy faced female communist robot, whose sole mission was to destroy millionaires and billionaires, the country club’d comeovers at the RNC would prefer that to Trump.

He is their albatross. His is their greatest fear. He is their end.

Look at some of these conservative sites and the articles they have brandished on their front page. If I were a democrat zealot, like half of you, I’d be laughing my ass off, as the other party literally and figuratively committed suicide in the face of unparalleled victory.

Fox News

Hot Air

National Review

Weekly Standard

Now that’s just a handful of the right wing sites out there. Let’s not mention the daily hit shows by Megyn Kelly and other “right wingers” whose sole purpose on this planet is to stop Trump–because he is Hitler, and Hitler was bad, and should’ve been stopped early on. They’re, essentially, following the same narrative as liberal democrat sites. I suspect the GOP will, in fact, deny Trump the nomination at the convention, at which point he will walk out, with his supporters, and either run for President under an independent party of simply say “fuck all of you, I’m rich” and melt away–watching the GOP burn from within. Either way, Trump is the only GOP candidate in the field that can win, like it or not.

Finally, there is a very high likelihood that this internal riff will result in a Hillary win; and subsequently, a very liberal supreme court will be appointed by the end of her first 4 years in office. Once that occurs, I am sure all of the asshole sites above will run editorials about how doomed America is and how evil Hillary is, without ever mentioning the integral part they played in creating her ascension.

Chinese manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2, ahead of expectations and the first advance in 7 months. This might be something of a sell the news catalyst, as far as markets are concerned. Japanese markets aren’t giving a shit about this–as corporate sentiment came in at 3 year lows–helping the NIKKEI plunge by 2%.

Nevertheless, a positive PMI is better than a weaker one, so it’s good news.

The following video is all you need to know about the current state of the oil patch. Forget the propaganda and the analyst notes. This much is certain: hedges placed in 2014 are rolling off. Banks will no longer comply with the empty promises that oil will soon streak to $100.

Only the strongest will survive.

Bear in mind, our friend Buddy here is on the ground, in the trenches, doing the numbers for the oil companies. All you need to know and understand about what’s around the bend for this industry can be found in his body language. Please ignore the cocaine addled hosts who get very excited for just about anything.

We truly live in an Alice in Wonderland world. Ahead of a 2017 debt refinance schedule that is sure to leave many oil companies in ruin, new propaganda is being leaked out to suggest that the Bakken Shale is now profitable as low as $30 per barrel.

Industry insiders, please opine on this.

Ever since WTI collapsed, we were reminded of Bakken breakevens in excess of $75 per barrel, some even higher. Since then, we’ve witnessed companies in the patch hemorrhage cash– due to career ending operating losses. The share prices of those stocks have collapsed, some as much as 100%. But now we are entreated to “new news”, suggesting that everything we knew of the Bakken was a lie. Moreover, and with considerable magic, we are now able to produce crude oil– in a region that is renowned for arduous extraction– quite profitably.

INVEST IN OUR SECONDARY OFFERINGS NOW AND PLEASE DO EXTEND OUR LINES OF CREDIT!

Love,

Bakken Shale

I’ve been saying this my entire life. Always fear the facts, and relish the fantasy of promise. Understand?

For years, earnings season has offered nothing but misery for investors, as results disappointed on a large scale. An economy growing at 0.6% isn’t one to fall in love with. In between earnings reports, we get to play house and pretend that things are getting better.

But when the actual data comes streaming in, like a raging river of blood, we quickly find religion and repent for our sins of greed and gluttony.

Fade the rallies. Board the ark.

Well, well, well, what do we have here? A little fraud coupled with predatory salesmanship to unsuspecting an unsuspecting rapper?

Jay Z is pissed off and is likely to sue Aspiro AG for damages. Tidal claims Aspiro inflated their subscription numbers in order to rob Jay Z for $56 million.

“It became clear after taking control of Tidal and conducting our own audit that the total number of subscribers was actually well below the 540,000 reported to us by the prior owners,” Tidal said in an e-mailed statement. “As a result, we have now served legal notice to parties involved in the sale.”

Aspiro disagrees:

“We disagree with the accusations in the letter and any potential claims,” said Anders Rikter, a spokesman for Schibsted. “We would like to point out that the company was listed on the stock exchange with everything that entails regarding transparent financial reporting.”

Jay Z has changed management several times and even attempted to sell it to Samsung, a deal that collapsed like a cheap lawnchair.

It appears Mr. HOV is stuck with Tidal and its 3 million subscribers.

All of the anti-China Anbang rhetoric is, apparently, pissing off the people who are willing to drop $15 billion on those American bastards.

Headlines are scrolling now that suggests China Anbang will walk away from the bid if it isn’t taken seriously. The Marriot execs must be high fiving now, at the old country club, clad in their checkered pants.

Meanwhile…

UPDATE: Dow Jones is now reporting Anbang has walked away from Starwood, middle fingers in the air, hating on checkered pants.