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Trading with The Fly

Dr. Fly
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,441 Blog Posts

BARBARIAN HORDES DESCEND UPON TRUMP; BLOCKS ROAD TO RALLY, PROTESTS IN NYC

Sat Mar 19, 2016 2:53pm EST 61

Fascist mobs, funded by a deranged globalist, lizard eating, cabal, have taken to the streets today–some with heroin needles stuck in their arms–to protest the right of assembly and speech of D. Trump. It is not acceptable that he be permitted to ‘hate’ on foreign entities whose sole goal is to fleece the American public of its honor, dignity and of course money.

Apparently, building a wall to keep out illegal narcotics and migrants is synonymous with racism. These bedragggled microbes do not realize they are pawns for the globalist agenda, one that endeavors to strip them from their very own jobs. All very ironic.

Here are some of the classic moments.

Baby

trump

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Saturday Cinema with Le Fly: Office Space

Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:40pm EST 5

I can’t believe I never reviewed this movie here. This is an absolute must see in the comedy genre. Anyone who has worked in a corporate setting understands how accurate the movie is, when depicting the oppressively absurd culture of a bureaucratic corporation.

The classic fax machine scene. The TPS reports and the asshole boss who wants you to come in on Saturday, and also Sunday. The cubicles, red swingline stapler, the taking of pennies from the tip tray.

An absolute classic.

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Faber: Hillary Clinton Will Destroy the World

Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:41pm EST 41

Before Mr. M. Faber got into politics, he said Brazil and Russia were relatively cheap, compared to the US. Perennially and without pause, M. Faber hates American stocks. That being said, when he broached the subject of investing in Singapore, he had nothing but good things to say about the old British crown colony–compared to the bedraggled nature by which America is run.

Then the Trump-Hillary dialogue took over. That male host wearing lipstick, speaking in the most incorrigible tones possible, acridly queried as to why Faber could support Trump over Clinton. Faber began to laugh, almost uncontrollably, suggesting he revisit Hillary’s middle east nation-building strategy, the ‘Arab Spring’, which has cosmically fucked that part of the world for the next 500 years.

Classic.

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Markets Rally For a 5th Consecutive Week; Crude Closes Under $40

Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:01pm EST 12

There is going to be hell to pay for all of this depravity in about 4 weeks hence. I know what you’re thinking. I’ve been dealing with audiences like you since my political blogging days, dating back to 2001. Many of my peers in the finance blogging racket are losers (extra Trump). These are people who I wouldn’t trust giving a tip at dinner, let alone offer me financial advice online. I hope you can appreciate and understand what I am trying to do with iBankCoin for 2016. It’s a complicated, multi-layered, strategy, which is aimed at training you to think analytically–from news to taking down positions.

By the end of 2016, you and I both will be better traders, decoders of financial subterfuge aka ‘news’, and have bountiful gains to show for it. Hopefully, all of this extra effort I am putting forth, publishing upwards of 15 blogs per day, parsing through the muck for a benefit of the ‘reader class’, will net the intended results: low beta,high-octane returns.

Markets rallied for the 5th consecutive week. But bonds rallied too. As a point in fact, the Japanese 10yr has never been lower, which is anchoring all bonds from selling off. We have a problem deep in the crevasse. Its been buried under 5 weeks worth of shit. In due time, all of the refuse will wash away from the tears of debilitated short sellers. At such a point in time, by my gameplan in late April, markets will reverse–in earnest–offering no quarter or respite for investors scrambling to avoid loss.

Everything will burn. Everything will be destroyed. Everything will be torn from foot to crown.

Have a great weekend!

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Goldman Lies: Fed Hiking Two Times is Most Dovish Ever

Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:48pm EST 9

This is Orwellian doublespeak. Goldman is out with new research, trying to help reflate assets, and lying. The suggestion that a doubling of the Federal funds rate over the next 8 months as being the most dovish of this century is not only laughable, but insulting.

Words cannot describe the utter horseshit that is forthcoming.

Excluding two meetings during the depths of the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009, the shock of Wednesday’s slash to the so-called “dot plot” was only exceeded by introduction of calendar-based forward guidance in 2011, the decision to forego “Septaper” in 2013, and last March’s markdown, according to Goldman:

“Markets had little doubt that the FOMC would leave the funds rate unchanged at yesterday’s meeting—futures markets implied only about a 5 percent chance of an increase before the announcement,” wrote Pandl and Struyven. “Yet the decision was clearly a major dovish surprise for markets, with interest rates declining across the curve and the dollar falling against other developed market currencies.”

“If the central bank unexpectedly tightens monetary policy, nominal interest rates will tend to rise, but breakeven inflation and stock prices will tend to fall,” the economists write, providing a theoretical example. “We can therefore infer something about the underlying macroeconomic shocks from the correlation pattern in markets.”

“The meaningful policy surprises in recent years are a puzzle in light of the large amount of information Fed officials now provide about their reaction function,” write the economists. “One might have thought that the details provided in the summary of economic projections and through the press conference would have made it easier for investors to anticipate the committee’s response to incoming data.”

In summary, war is peace. Up is down. Higher rates is dovish. Lower crude is bearish. Higher Trump polls is fascism.

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S&P Pushes into Positive Territory for 2016; Bonds Continue to Advance Higher

Fri Mar 18, 2016 11:08am EST 9

As market participants splash around the market, yields continue to collapse–because the Fed is only going to hike rates by 100% over the next 8 months.

This is risk aversion.

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The S&P 500 has erased all of its early 2016 losses and now relish in the black. Crude oil has formed a bridgehead at $40, which poses as a significant annoyance to those whom are short. Fundamental concerns aren’t abated at $40 crude; but the market is bidding up oil stocks anyway.

Seeing a great divergence between reality and perception, I doubled my XLE short today, with a basis of $63.32.

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Macau Casinos Upgraded by Macquarie

Fri Mar 18, 2016 10:10am EST 2

Apparently, the analyst covering them is a long term bear on the sector, which is making WYNN and a few others jump higher.

We upgrade our price targets by +2% to +17% for the six Macau gaming operators. Sands China goes to Outperform (from Neutral) and Melco Crown to Neutral. We believe Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, with well established properties in Cotai, will be the biggest beneficiaries of the project delays announced so far by Wynn Macau and MGM China. Wynn Macau remains our top-short pick. It might further delay the Wynn Palace opening, which could trigger Bloomberg consensus downgrades.

A ballsy call, considering the Chinese gov’t seem to be hellbent on making life ruinous for casino operators in Macau.

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Biotech Straddling the Lows For the Year; Baker Bros Racked With Losses

Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:51am EST Comments Off on Biotech Straddling the Lows For the Year; Baker Bros Racked With Losses

The number one go to sector for risk and growth, biotech, has been ripped to shreds in 2016, down 29% and counting.

As markets have lifted in recent weeks, sending the Dow higher by 2,000 points, biotech has done nothing. As a matter of fact, this once loved sector, filled with promise, is trading near the lows for the year.

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Much of the negative press is political risk. H. Clinton and D. Trump have both criticized the healthcare industry for excessive profit margins, which come at the expense of the infirmed. Also, the Valeant debacle has offered nothing but negative headline news, preventing new, stupid, investors from entering the fray for some good old fashioned speculation.

My take: this sector is doomed until after the election, or until VRX doubles from here.

According to recent filings compiled by Exodus, the once mighty biotech hedge fund, Baker Bros, is down in the order of 35 some odd percent for 2016.

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Cataclysmic.

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Lunatics Are Buying $CAT

Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:27am EST 5

The stock traded higher yesterday after offering abysmal guidance. I believe the stock is up in the order of 30% since February, based on nothing at all.

These numbers were released this morning. Sales are bleak and getting bleaker.

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Naturally, the stock is up on this wonderful news.

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Crude Breaks $41, Gold Lower, Futures Up

Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:06am EST 2

Happy Friday. My head is still spinning from all of the lager that I thought I should consume last night. It always seems like a great idea, drinking like a depraved degenerate, until the morning after kicks in and you need a fucking barrel of coffee to get your day started.

Crude is being chased higher again, now above $41. This is a short squeeze and it will end miserably for longs, in my opinion.
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Gold hammered again.

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Treasuries are edging higher too, as well as the dollar, with a moderate 0.3% gain v the euro.

Also, futures are higher. The weather is sublime. Markets are in bull mode. What could go wrong?
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America is going to be great again.

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