Alaska Air is buying Virgin? Really? The whole allure about ALK was the fact they flew routes that no one else cared for, or had a near monopoly on. With the VA albatross around their necks, ALK is just like the rest of the losers.
And look at the premium Sir Branson (the fuck outta here with the title) made those country bumpkins pay. You know a deal is shit when the acquirer’s stock gets smashed.
Who even cares about Brocade buying RKUS, other than the 4 RKUS shareholders who just got lucky?
Trump would tell you that the Brocade people were low energy losers if he were blogging here.
Lastly, I’d like to touch on the genius of Elon Musk and his $35,000 iPhone. Not only is this new electric car capable of driving 215 miles without being plugged into the wall, but he created such hype around it that people are clamoring for the privilege to own it, treating the purchase of a car as if it were an iPhone. Truly amazing. The model 3 already has over 250k units sold, with the first 200k lucky lads getting a government tax credit of 7k to boot. Also amazing!
Sales have shattered expectations and the car isn’t even gonna be ready until 2017. This is one of the great brands to be reckoned with, a supreme standard in an industry rife with mediocrity. One could argue Tesla is the Apple of the automobile industry.
I don’t need an electric car; but I am tempted to buy the model 3, especially since the price tag is so low. I spend $35k on my asinine trips to Whole Foods every year. I could think of worse ways to spend 35 gs.
Overall, markets are slightly higher with a bullish bias.
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I liken pre-release (2017 is a “maybe”) Model 3 buyers to current bullish speculators in WTI futures.
In other words, betting on vapor, investing on rumor. Good luck to both camps.
Chevy just released the Bolt, a direct competitor to the Model 3. I saw my first BMW i3 on the road yesterday. Call it Toastla at this point. Maybe the battery thing will work out for Musk as his rocket ships keep exploding.
Just got back from a few days in Manhattan and as we were passing the Trump Building in the Wall Street area (going to Adrienne’s for pizza) I overheard some tourist with a German accent say with a smirk, “Why hasn’t it been defaced yet?”
I was tempted to tell him how good Merkel is doing screwing the Euros.
Just another fascist.
the 200k applies to all cars sold by TSLA though, so a lot of those early buyers not going to get that big of a credit. think they already had 100k units sold of the other models beforehand.
The math with the Model 3 is relatively straightforward. Let’s say you drive 20K miles a year. With insurance and taxes being equal, the Model 3 saves you approximately 3K in gas and maintenance costs every year over a competing gasoline car (BMW 3 series, Audi A4 etc.)
In 8 years of ownership, the Model 3 will save you $24K whereas a competing gasoline car will add that much as an expense.
For $35K upfront, the cost to own/operate a Model 3 will be a cumulative $35K – $24K = $11K over 8 years. The same cost to own/operate any of the comparable gasoline cars will be $35K + $24K = $59K
Long TSLA from the 50’s
Almost had me there.
Should be 35K+11K=46k
VS
35K+24K=59k
still a better deal
Depends on how you look at it. I am seeing the Model 3 as giving me back $24K over 8 years vs a gasoline car costing me an additional $24K in expenses.
Net cost of ownership should have been a better way to put it.
It doesn’t depend on how you look at it. Unles you are getting a refund of $24k, you can’t double count. Even if your numbers were accurate, it would look like this:
Tesla owner:
8 year cost for fuel & maintenance: $0
Vehicle cost: $35k
Total cost: $35k
BMW owner:
8 year cost for fuel & maintenance: $24
Vehicle cost: $35k
Total cost: $59k
Savings to Tesla owner: $24k, not the $48k you are showing
Your math is straightforwardly wrong, and your assumptions are questionable. For the math, you are double counting the $24k savings by first applying it as a discount to the Model 3 and then applying it again as an expense to the BMW.
Assuming gas @$2.50/gal, efficiency at 25 mpg, and annual mileage at 12,000 miles, the gas savings is $1200, so $9600 over 8 years. BMWs hav free maintenance to start out, and their 5-yr maintenance cost id $3671 on cars.com. Let’s say $6000 for 8 years. This puts gas an maintenance cost at $15,600 for 8 years, well below your $24,000 estimate.
With an optimistic cost of $80/MW-hr for power plants and assuming 100% transmission efficiency, a 60kW-hr battery would cost $4.80 per charge. @225miles/charge, 12,000 miles would require ~53 charges at a cost of $256/year, $2048 over 8 years. I don’t know what the maintenace cost is, but even if the Model 3’s powertrain is less complex. the electronics overall are more expensive and the battery cost would significantly increase the depreciation of the Tesla.
Also, your argument is for the CAR, not the stock. So even though the Model 3 may be a good buy, the stock is way overvalued. TSLA has negative earnings, but you can look at the Revenue:
Price/Sales
Ford (F): $50.3B/ $149.6B = 0.34
Apple (AAPL): $618.6B/$233.8B = 2.6
Tesla (TSLA): $32.7B/$4B = 8.2
Ok. Agreed on the double counting part. Can you redo your math with the numbers below?
I used 20000 miles as annual mileage vs 12000 that you used.
Cost of charging the car is negligible as there are superchargers for freeways and level 2 charges at most workplaces that are free to use.
I drive a Model S and so far I have spent $0 on maintenance. Ask a BMW owner how much he spends after 1 year of ownership.
Let’s not even get to the stock please. This is a growth stage company. It is all about execution and scaling up to meet demand.
C’mon, dopefeller, you’re an investor right?
“Can you redo your math with the numbers below?”
No.
Besides, 12k is average, not 20k. Anyway, I have nothing against the Tesla cars. I’d buy them vs. BMWs. Try Edmunds message boards if you want to talk about the Tesla cars further. The stock is what I care about and as I see it:
$50: it’s a steal
$80: value play
$100: maybe
$150: short-term momentum play for a trade agianst an oversold condition
$200+: sell to people that don’t understand how to read financail statements and believe that behind every good company is a stock that they want to own no matter what the price is.
Model 3 doesn’t have any vehicles sold. They have deposits. Figure a chunk of those are
placeholders that might not transition into sales and some are for cocktail party talk. When delivery dates slip into 2018 and tax credit disappear let’s see what happens. Do they even have the capacity to build these cars? I’m rooting for TSLA but don’t believe it will be a financial slam dunk winner.
Depending on its rated charge-discharge cyles, Telsa battery replacement cost may part of an accurate cost analysis.
Fly- Your Whole Foods cost may reduce your prescription drug cost later in life. I spend about 12K a year at WFM. Nothing is certain, but I figure improved food quality is worth the expense.
The Model 3 will either save Tesla or doom it to the hangmans gallows.