Exodus’ Shortest Duration Oversold Algorithms at Shallowest Point Ever

Within the Exodus matrix, there are 4 principle algorithms, divided by time frames. The purpose of this is to ensure the engines learn how markets are behaving and to adjust accordingly.

Our shortest duration algo is 3mos. Back in March of 2016, at market lows, the oversold trigger was 2.31 on a scale of 1-5. As markets improved and volatility vanished, the scores steadily rose to reflect a market that rallied on any semblance of weakness.

Right now the trigger is 2.54, the highest 3 mo score ever, or the shallowest point in history. In other words, it won’t take much of a down tick for the system to flag OS. The interesting allegory being painted here is one that typically precedes sharp sell offs. The very essence of a calm normality is toxic for stocks. The last time the score was near this level was in late June of 2015, when it hit 2.52. Shortly thereafter, the SPY dropped from $205 to $182.

Food for thought.

Courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a rundown of what some prominent Wall Street analysts think of the proposed OPEC production cut. At a minimum, they feel it might be difficult to enforce, let alone keep US production offline as the price of WTI creeps higher.

Citigroup Inc. analysts including Ed Morse:

Assigning individual country quotas is the “major dispute” and while they may be decided at OPEC’s next meeting on Nov. 30, “this is still kicking the can down the road.”
Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Longson:

Reduction in output to 32.5 million barrels a day doesn’t solve oversupply immediately, but could potentially accelerate market re-balancing to as soon as early 2017.
Focus now turns to execution of deal, where history is poor.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie:

The production plan is likely to boost prices short term, but output quotas could be exceeded even if they are ratified at the November meeting.

“Strictly implemented in the first half of 2017 and all else constant, the production quotas announced today should be worth $7 a barrel to $10 a barrel to the oil price.”

“It has historically taken a fall in oil demand to ensure quota compliance, as in that case, production is forced lower by a decline in refinery intake around the world. This is not the case today with resilient demand growth.”

Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group consulting company in Villanova, Pa.:

“Do the Saudis want to awaken a sleeping giant? They will if prices top $50. The rig count is already rising and shale production has stabilized. Predictions of sub 8 million barrels a day U.S. production next year will go to the wayside.”
Barclays Capital Inc. analysts including Michael Cohen:

“The agreement is significant, but we believe that what OPEC is now officially saying it will do, it had been planning to do anyway.”

Saudi output was forecast to fall after its peak summer power burn needs and November-December refinery turnarounds will remove some demand.

Iraq’s rejection of secondary-sources oil output estimate is “first sign that cracks are already appearing in deciding which producer cuts and by how much.”

Combetta was Hillary’s IT guy, who traversed the Reddit forums so that he could properly learn how to delete data for his ‘very VIP’ client.

Oh my God. If you though the ‘Between two Ferns‘ interview was hilarious, you’re gonna love this…because it’s real.

This is being widely derided amongst Blige fans for the absurdity of it all. After receiving extreme ridicule, Blige tweeted for everyone to ‘shut the fuck up’, before quickly removing it.

This dandy airs in its entirety on September the 30th.

But don’t worry lads. We still have the best damned doctors in the world, for those of you lucky enough to afford them. We’ve become a have and have nots society, just like that garbage Matt Damon movie, Elysium.

The good news, we beat out Jordan, Colombia Azerbaijan, Brazil and Russia, where people are left to rot and die from the common cold. The bad news, everyone else in the world has a better healthcare system. At least in Russia, you can get the same quality, fucked up, healthcare as here — but at 1/10th the cost.

America was 50th out of 55 countries in 2014, according to a Bloomberg index that assesses life expectancy, health-care spending per capita and relative spending as a share of gross domestic product. Expenditures averaged $9,403 per person, about 17.1 percent of GDP, that year — the most recent for which data are available — and life expectancy was 78.9. Only Jordan, Colombia, Azerbaijan, Brazil and Russia ranked lower.

What more do you need to see? Comey is clearly not even thinking about upholding the law when it comes to Hillary’s emails. No one is surprised. The only startling facts is how it’s being done in broad daylight, for everyone to see. They’re putting it out there, telling everyone there is a double standard for ordinary folks vs the establishment elite. Comey is fully aware of Combettas reddit escapades and doesn’t believe them to be worthy of his attention.

Chaffetz

Gowdy

Wow.

Comey’s indignation: ‘Don’t call us weasels! We are honest people.’

Member of Exodus can see the actual stats.

Basic resource stocks with more than 10% of shares sold short rose by more than 5%.

and stocks with less than 10% of shares short leaped by a little more than 2%.

Here are the basic resource stocks that are most heavily shorted.

CRR, ATW, WTI, CWEI, CLF, BAS, SGY and BCEI.

These are stocks of the very lowest magnitude. I’d partake in this screen, only if I was a disheveled lunatic in search of lottery money for one of many vices — such as a narcotics or alcohol abuse addiction.

For all of the noise, markets have done a whole lot of nothing over the past few weeks.

Nonetheless, I am constructive on the markets over the next week or so, and I stated such over the weekend. Overbought markets tend to remain overbought for a week or so, according to our data. By the middle of next week, you might want to extricate yourselves from some of the riskier positions — in order to avoid a potential blow off top.

Just my 2 cents.

It’s being reported that OPEC has agreed to a production freeze, starting November. Oil has exploded by nearly 6% off the news that states they will limit daily production to 32.5m bpd. Just to give you some perspective of what 32.5m bpd looks like, historically, here’s a chart of recent OPEC production.

Does 32.5m bpd look like a harsh cut for members of the cartel? This ‘drop’ in production amounts of a mere 1 mill, a slight of hand in the big scheme of things, especially when considering we have over 550m barrels in storage and another 695m in the SPR. We are awash with crude. But fuck you very much to the House of Saud for jacking prices higher, on the same day the Senate overrode the Obama 9/11 veto.

I’m sure it’s all a coincidence.

Low brow oil stocks have exploded to the upside. Congrats to Ragin Cajun in Exodus‘ trading room for nailing the move.

I won’t even begin to analyze this in a serious way. To me, the debate was rigged by the lack of substantive questions asked by Holt. But this is making the rounds today, supported by 4 time World Series of Poker Champion.

Wow ive watched the debates 3 times & never noticed!! I felt the whole time she had the questions but after watching that i she def signals https://t.co/dOSZlmfB9G

— Mike Matusow (@themouthmatusow) September 28, 2016

You be the judge.

I don’t intend for the following statements to be mean spirited (okay, maybe just a little), but this guy has the worst haircut I’ve ever seen. It looks like his cousin gave him a haircut with a straight razor after downing a mason jar filled with Alabama moonshine. What can I say? Wedbush is a despicable firm. If the investment banking community formed a human body, Wedbush would be its asshole.

Here’s the bad haircut guy telling you to sell Alphabet, because, by miracle, things will stop working for them.

Drivel.