The iBC Poll Results Are In: None of You Give a Shit About #TrumpTapes Gate

I imagined many of you moved in very heavily in this bitch of a poll and said ‘MAGA’, inexorably ignoring pussygate and all the horrible things it means for the country and our ‘global community’ — mostly that it might permit H. Clinton grab the iron throne.

I’ve conducted these polls on my Twitter account for the past year and almost every result was 70% in favor of Trump. This one came in at 68%, with more than 700 of my 28,000 followers participating.

What does it mean? Well, according to my demographics, an unbelievable majority of my followers are men, 85%. I wonder why the fuck that is? And, many of you are well to do cock-swingers, so the vulgarity of Trump most likely only emboldens you to vote more than once this election.

All of the reports of ‘imminent deals’ being made, reported by citizen journalists on Twitter, have turned out to be complete and utter horseshit. Surprisingly, the DOJ isn’t bending to the will of Merkel, most likely due to the EU clown slapping of Apple. That being said, Deutsche Bank now finds themselves in a terrible set of circumstances, with a $14b fine and just $6b in reserves. With the stock higher by 14% over the past two weeks, and more than 30% from the lows, look for that shit to get rescinded in the most violent of ways.

Via Bloomberg

Deutsche Bank AG Chief Executive Officer John Cryan failed to reach an agreement with the U.S. Justice Department to resolve a years-long investigation into its mortgage-bond dealings during a meeting in Washington Friday, Germany’s Bild newspaper reported.

The meeting was meant to negotiate the multi-billion-dollar settlement the bank will have to pay to resolve alleged misconduct arising from its dealings in residential-mortgage backed securities that led to the 2008 financial crisis, according to a Bild am Sonntag report.

The German lender is still considering seeking damages against Anshu Jain and Josef Ackermann, who are both former CEOs of the bank, the newspaper reported. Bild said the bank froze part of the millions in bonus payments to Jain and other former top managers.

A Deutsche Bank spokeswoman declined to comment to Bild about the outcome of Cryan’s Friday discussion or about clawing back former executives’ compensation. Mark Abueg, a Justice Department spokesman, declined to comment.

Now I understand that Deutsche Bank isn’t Lehman. As a matter of fact, it’s much worse than Lehman. From my vantage point, short sellers will be going into DB, very heavily, like a bitch (Extra Trump), first thing Monday morning.

Via Zerohedge

Deutsche Bank’s position is currently marginal as it is woefully undercapitalised and has no clear prospect of becoming meaningfully profitable. As the world’s largest derivative trader and Europe’s most systemically important bank this is untenable. Deutsche Bank is three times larger than Lehman Brothers, making the possibility of an unexpected and uncoordinated failure completely unacceptable. Deutsche Bank needs substantial time and capital to execute a turnaround, neither of which it now has. It does not have the profitability to grow its capital base quickly or to support a capital raising of the size it needs. Deutsche Bank needs either a bail-in or a bailout.

An orderly bail-in process would deliver Deutsche Bank the additional time and capital it needs. In the first instance, the bank should be declared non-viable with all equity, additional tier 1 and subordinated debt written off. By converting 63.1% of long term senior debt to new equity the leverage ratio would increase to an unquestionably strong 9%. Based on recent peer comparisons, bailed-in senior debt holders would receive a recovery of at least 94% of their current position. Using an IPO model, where management develops and presents a new strategy to potential investors over a 2-3 month period, would allow the recipients of newly issued equity an orderly process to sell-down their equity. It also creates the possibility of a substantial recovery for subordinated debt, additional tier 1 and equity investors.

If the Lehman playbook continues to play out as it has done – denials of any problems… blame speculators… unleash short-squeeze on heels of rumors of foreign sovereign wealth fund investments… and finally acceptance – this will not end well…

I’ve done these polls for the past year and the results have always been around 70% in favor of Trump. I’d be interested to see how the events of recent days affected the results.

Who will you vote for?

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 8, 2016

NOTE: I will be live Tweeting the debate here tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Britain’s UKIP founder, Nigel Farage, offers Trump advice for tomorrow’s debate — saying most men talk like this in private and how Trump needs to try to reconnect with voters by getting back on the issues.

“There’s an honesty about Trump. He is what he is.”

The outrage is almost too much to bear. The ‘I told you so’ people are out in force and numbers today, rightfully so. Everyone wants to be a winner. Politics is no different.

Trump has only himself to blame, chatting it up with a member of the Bush crime family about unsavory topics that should never come out of the mouth of a grown man. Like I said, its indefensible.

Now a sundry of republicans and GOP supporters are calling for Trump to withdraw. Why? That’s patently ridiculous and undemocratic. Let him fall on his sword and give people an opportunity to vote their conscience.

If your goal is to protect corrupt republicans in their reelection bids by having Trump drop out, I’d say your righteous indignation is woefully misplaced. Get them out. All of them.

Back to Trump. In a Washington Post interview today, the Donald said  he’d never drop out and will continue to press on.

source: WASHPO

“I’d never withdraw. I’ve never withdrawn in my life,” Trump told the Washington Post in a phone call from his home in Trump Tower in New York. “No, I’m not quitting this race. I have tremendous support.”

“People are calling and saying, ‘Don’t even think about doing anything else but running,” Trump said when asked about GOP defections. “You have to see what’s going on. The real story is that people have no idea the support. I don’t know how that’s going to boil down but people have no idea the support.

“Running against her,” Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, makes keeping the party behind him easier, Trump added.

“It’s because she’s so bad. She’s so flawed as a candidate. Running against her, I can’t say it’d be the same if I ran against someone else, but running against her makes it a lot easier, that’s for sure.”

Trump acknowledged that the video has consumed the presidential race — “it certainly has” — but he said he has endured past controversies, not only during his 2016 bid but during his career.

“I’ve been here before, I’ll tell ya, in life,” Trump said. “I understand life and how you make it through. You go through things. I’ve been through many. It’s called life. And it’s always interesting.”

Trump said “thousands and thousands” of backers have sent him letters and emails since the Post’s story was published. “You have no idea what it’s like,” he said. “So many people.”

Trump pointed to his disparagement of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) during the early months of last year’s Republican primary campaign as an example of how he has weathered political storms.

“Everyone said, ‘It’s over, it’s over.’ The people didn’t say that but the reporters said that,” Trump said. When asked to explain his ability in the past to survive, Trump said it’s because “I’m change.”

Reflecting on his state of mind as he watched news coverage from his apartment, Trump said, “I’m holding up well. I’m holding up well.”

Trump said he may make a speech or remarks on Saturday evening, perhaps in a suburb of New York City, as a way of encouraging his supporters.

“That’s what I’m thinking about,” he said. “We’ll see.”

Trump insisted, again, that any possible speech would not be a departure from the race.

“Forget that,” Trump said dismissively of the suggestion. “That’s not my deal.”

While everyone is nonplussed over the contents of Trump’s remarks, one has to wonder how this tape was acquired in the first place — especially since the host of the show was none other than Billy Bush.

Neocons gonna con.

The streets of Wall are littered with stories of people gaining access to market moving information and trading off it for profit. After the close of trading on Friday, the biggest scandal of the Trump campaign to date broke, sending it reeling into turmoil.

But during the trading day, in an otherwise weak tape encumbered by 70% of stocks trading down for the session, one stock stood out amid the carnage: Hillary Clinton’s favorite investment bank, Goldman Sachs.

Amidst the Dow 30, Goldman outperformed all stocks. The only stock that came close was TRV, but that was related to Hurricane Matthew not being as strong as originally expected. For the session, Goldman was up 5x as much as JPM.

The below list of stocks represents the largest financial firms publicly traded. Notice any one particular stock that stood out from the rest? Note that CB is an insurance stock and pressed higher because of Hurricane Matthew. Other than that, no financial came remotely close to Goldman on Friday.

Lastly, here are the call contracts traded in GS today. On a 70% down day, with most banks lower for the session, it’s highly unusual to see aggressive option buying on a Friday afternoon. Over 4,200 contracts, expiring in two weeks, were bought today — representing over $70 million in notional value.

Even more suspicious were the calls bought that expire next week. In various strike prices across the montage, over 5,200 contracts were bought for a notional value representing $87 million. For the 10/21 expiry contracts, over 3,000 were purchased for a notional value of more than $50 million.

There could’ve been sundry of reasons why over $200 million in notional value of Goldman Sachs contracts were bought on Friday. I just find it to be out of the ordinary when compared to members of their peer group, coupled with revelations that may possibly cripple and end the Trump candidacy. It’s widely believed that a Clinton win would be bullish for Wall Street, especially the banks. That being said, should we see a sharp move higher in Goldman on Monday — after digesting the news — these trades are going to stick out like a brand new factory being built in Detroit.

Was anyone else offered a tic tac and a kiss from D. Trump?

“He did this to a lot of people.”

The knives are falling.

Here is my statement. pic.twitter.com/WAZiGoQqMQ

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 8, 2016

Following the release of what can only be described as a black pill for anyone running for public office, just about everyone in the GOP is livid and abandoning Trump — ahead of Sunday’s debate. Based upon what I am seeing now, this sandstorm of criticism is going to level the Trump run, unless something changes from now until the election day. Moreover, I think his actions and his words are more important now than ever before, dealing with this late stage crisis, so he should choose them very carefully.

Charisma is a delicate combination of both power and kindness. It should make for a most interesting debate.

Here is a run down of the fallout in the republican party and who is distancing themselves from Trump now.

Via The Hill

Rep Chaffetz:

“I’m out. I can no longer in good conscience endorse this person for president. It is some of the most abhorrent and offensive comments that you can possibly imagine,” he said.

“He’s put the party and this country in an awful place … I get the sense this probably isn’t the end of them. There might be more.”

Rep. Ryan:

“I am sickened by what I heard today,” Ryan said in a statement released Friday night. “Women are to be championed and revered, not objectified. I hope Mr. Trump treats this situation with the seriousness it deserves and works to demonstrate to the country that he has greater respect for women than this clip suggests. In the meantime, he is no longer attending tomorrow’s event in Wisconsin.”

Rep. Johnson:

“Donald Trump’s recent comments are completely indefensible and I refuse to even attempt to try and do so,” Johnson said in a statement.

Rep. Kirk:

Kirk called on Trump to drop out of the race, calling him a “malignant clown” that is “unfit” to be president.

Sen.McConnell:

“As the father of three daughters, I strongly believe that Trump needs to apologize directly to women and girls everywhere, and take full responsibility for the utter lack of respect for women shown in his comments on that tape,” he said.

Gov. Herbert from Utah:

“Donald Trump’s statements are beyond offensive & despicable,” said Gov. Gary Herbert in a tweet. “While I cannot vote for Hillary Clinton, I will not vote for Trump.”

Rep. Coffman:

“For the good of the country, and to give the Republicans a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, Mr. Trump should step aside,” he said in a statement, according to a local CBS station. “And four years of Hillary Clinton is not what is best for this country.”

Coffman added that Trump “should put the country first and do the right thing.”

Sen. McCain:

“There are no excuses for Donald Trump’s offensive and demeaning comments,” the Arizona senator said in a statement. “No woman should ever be victimized by this kind of inappropriate behavior. He alone bears the burden of his conduct and alone should suffer the consequences.”

Sen. Cruz:

“These comments are disturbing and inappropriate, there is simply no excuse for them,” he said on Twitter. “Every wife, mother, daughter — every person — deserves to be treated with dignity and respect.”

Sen. Rubio:

“Donald’s comments were vulgar, egregious and impossible to justify.”
“No one should ever talk about any woman in those terms, even in private,” Rubio wrote in a tweet.

This was a masterful stroke by the establishment elite. Remember that the GOP hated Trump even more than the Dems. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that this was a coordinated event to stop Trump. This, of course, doesn’t invalidate the contents of the tape. However, it does demonstrate a level of control and sophistication by the elite to take down their opposition.

Paul Ryan is sickened by Trump and will not be campaigning with him tomorrow.

“I am sickened by what I heard today,” Ryan said in a statement released Friday night. “Women are to be championed and revered, not objectified. I hope Mr. Trump treats this situation with the seriousness it deserves and works to demonstrate to the country that he has greater respect for women than this clip suggests. In the meantime, he is no longer attending tomorrow’s event in Wisconsin.”

Ryan has been waiting to do this for a long time.