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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

U.S. State Department Threatens Russia with the Specter of Terrorist Attacks in Russian Cities for Syrian Involvement

These are some of the most insane public comments by a US diplomat I’ve ever seen. Russia’s involvement in protecting the Assad regime and to destroy ISIS has gotten the Obama administration in such a frenzy that they’re now sending out their shit talkers to make veiled threats to Russia.

Is this wise foreign policy, sabre rattling with a country who has 10,000 ICBMs? This is fucking stupidity at the highest levels.

 

“Extremist groups will continue to exploit the vacuums that are there in Syria to expand their operations, which could include attacks against Russian interests, perhaps even Russian cities. Russia will continue to send troops home in body bags, and will continue to lose resources, perhaps even aircraft,” Kirby told reporters at Wednesday’s press briefing, adding that if the war in Syria continues “more Russian lives will be lost, more Russian aircraft will be shot down.”

 

Maria Vladimirovna Zakharova, Director of the Information and Press Department for Russia, said in a Facebook post “And those [acts of terrorism] will be perpetrated by ‘moderate’ [Syrian opposition groups]? Just the ones that Washington has been unable to separate from Al-Nusra for as long as six months? Don’t you think that such ventriloquism about ‘body bags,’ ‘terrorist attacks in Russian cities’ and ‘loss of aircraft,’ sounds more like a ‘get ’em’ command, rather than a diplomatic comment? Is Kirby actually threatening to use the same “moderate” jihadists that the Obama administration has funded and armed to kill Russian troops, down Russian planes and slaughter Russian citizens in their own country?”

 

maria

What the fuck is going with this country and why are we supporting ISIS in Syria?

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Carter Worth on Deutsche Bank: ‘There’s No Telling How Low it Can Go, Including All the Way’

Following a long summer of french martinis and bloody marys, Carter Braxton Worth has placed his polo gear in the family mud room and taken to the charts to have a gander, or two, at Deutsche Bank.

He posits the shares have zero support, currently well below the 2009 lows, saying it can go ‘all the way.’ He then goes on to compare its paltry $15b market cap to some of its American competitors, whose caps are 10x Germany’s largest bank. Having a eureka moment. C.B. Worth says ‘something’s wrong here.’

Indeud.

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Gundlach: Avoid Deutsche Bank, says the Bank Will Get Bailed Out if Things Get Bad

The new bond King, Jeff Gundlach, offers some sage advice here, in a Reuters interview by morse code.

“I would just stay away. It’s un-analyzable,” Gundlach told Reuters by phone about Deutsche Bank shares and debt. “It’s too binary. The market is going to push down Deutsche Bank until there is some recognition of support. They will get assistance, if need be.”

“One day, Deutsche Bank shares will go up 40 percent. And it will be the day the government bails them out. That jump will happen in a minute,” Gundlach said.

“It is about an event which is completely out of your control.”

While we all love to see Germany’s biggest bagholder punished in biblical terms, it’s a toxic trade for both longs and shorts. On one hand, the bank is all but dead. The capital base is on the verge of destruction — with over $1.8t in assets and a market cap slightly above $15b. On the other, in spite of what Merkel said, there is no way the Bundesbank permits DB to blow up, when considering they underwrote every single Greek bailout over the past decade.

The billion dollar question is, when will Germany assist Deutsche Bank? Do you know? I have no idea. I’m guessing they won’t do it, unless the stock gets hammered a little bit more. Clearly, they’d like to avoid displaying moral hazard for as long as they can. But, if we’re being honest here, the entirety of western finance is now a rigged game of smoke and mirrors. You’d have to be crazy to believe they’d sit back and let Deutsche Bank unravel and then blow up.

Short sellers will be met with an awfully acrimonious vengeance, whenever the Bundesbank decides to step in. You’re better off sitting back and enjoying the shit-show.

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California’s Prop 61 Stands to Change the Pharma Game Forever; Healthcare Stocks Slide

Early polling suggests Proposition 61 will easily pass in California on November the 8th, with 50% already in favor of it, compared to a meager 16% saying they’d vote no. If passed, it will permit the State of California to negotiate costs for the 3 million Medi-cal patients, 830k state employees and retirees, in addition to another 294k teachers.

For now, the ordinary, non-warden of the state, will not enjoy the splendour of prop 61. But it’s a start.

RBC analyst, Mike Yee, says it’s mostly headline risk and should only affect earnings by 2-3% — due to the limited scope of the porgram.

In a note to clients, RBC Dominion Securities Analyst Michael Yee indicated the passage of this measure could adversely affect all the biotech companies in his coverage universe, including Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences Inc., Celgene Corp., Biogen Inc., Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. However, Yee doesn’t think this measure would have a materially deleterious effect on pharmaceutical companies’ financial performance.

“We think a possible 2-3 percent earnings per share impact to large-caps if this initiative were passed across all 50 states, but this is more headline risk than anything,” the analyst wrote.

Nevertheless, this could be a keystone event that leads the way towards other states making a stand against big pharma. In spite of their efforts in California, outspending the people by a factor of 7, higher drug prices for the benefit of a few C level execs and company share buyback just isn’t resonating with the people.

“After $35 million spent (so far by opponents) on lying ads … it’s gotten them 16 percent of the vote,” Weinstein said of the David-and-Goliath battle that has seen Big Pharma spend at least $86 million to defeat the measure. In contrast, the proponents have raised at least $14 million.

Speciality pharma stocks MNK, MYL, ALKS, ENDP, VRX, ALNY and a sundry of other pharma stocks were pummeled today.

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Schadenfreude: Companies That Are Now Bigger Than $DB

Since $DB has fallen on hard times, with the stock being hammered into oblivion, I thought it’d be ‘fun’ in a Schadenfreude sort of way, to highlight some companies that are now bigger than Europe’s largest bank.

Credit Suisse
Newmont Mining
Molson Brewing
Panasonic
Suntrust
Campbell Soup
Sirius XM
Hertz Global
Southern Copper
L Brands
Sunlife Financial
Hormel Foods
Level 3
Sprint
M&T Bank
Ctrip
Twitter
Ulta
Dr. Pepper
JM Smucker

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A Run on Deutsche Bank Begins; Clowns at CNBC Reminds Viewers That It’s ‘Small’ and Non-Systemic

A report came out this afternoon that a few hedge funds were withdrawing their funds from Deutsche Bank — a small little provincial bank with over $1.8t in assets and $50-75t in derivatives. Aside from being Europe’s largest bank, the IMF said it poses the greatest risk to the financial system.

There are many who believe DB is more dangerous that LEH ever was, specifically because Germany, and all of Europe, have been using it as a cesspool, dumping all of the refuse from the edges of Europe onto its balance sheets.

Bloomberg reports:

While the vast majority of Deutsche Bank’s more than 200 derivatives-clearing clients have made no changes, some funds that use the bank’s prime brokerage service have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week, according to an internal bank document seen by Bloomberg News. Millennium Partners, Capula Investment Management and Rokos Capital Management are among about 10 hedge funds that have cut their exposure, said a person familiar with the situation who declined to be identified talking about confidential client matters.

The hedge funds use Deutsche Bank to clear their listed derivatives transactions because they are not members of clearinghouses. Millennium, Capula and Rokos declined to comment when contacted by phone or e-mail.

“Our trading clients are amongst the world’s most sophisticated investors,” Michael Golden, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, said in an e-mailed statement. “We are confident that the vast majority of them have a full understanding of our stable financial position, the current macroeconomic environment, the litigation process in the U.S. and the progress we are making with our strategy.”

As a result of this report and everything else going on, investors dropped DB like a hot volcanic stone. Shares slid and the market followed suit.
db

So how did CNBC report on it? Like clowns. Take a shot for every time ‘small’ was said in this clip. I especially like the conspiracy theory conjured up by the leprechaun, regarding hedge funds short DB and then removing funds to make their trades profitable. Hey bozo, the stock is down over 60% for 2016. It doesn’t need any help from nefarious hedge funds to eat dirt.

Shameful journalism here.

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And Now Germany’s Second Largest Bank, Commerzbank, is Under Pressure

Commerzbank announced they were culling 20% of its workforce, or 10,000 people, and will stop paying those pesky dividends, in an effort to restructure.

They’re taking a charge of $1.2b, citing a deleterious loan environment and negative ECB interest rates, as well as digital banking, as the root of all evil for them.

Compared to Deutsche Bank’s generous 10% cut in their workforce, the managers at Commerzbank look like true assholes.

The shares are off by 3% today and more than 45% over the past year.

cbk

Related: Zerohedge is out with an article that states there is a contagion of sorts, a nascent zombie apocalypse forming in Europe, as it pertains to Deutsche Bank.

Tyler states:

“Storm in a teacup” this is not.

While global markets remain calm(ish), distracted by OPEC headlines, US election ‘entertainment’, and Middle East proxy wars, the reality is, something very ugly is accelerating in Europe. With the collapse of the “most systemically dangerous bank in the world” we should hardly be surprised, but Deutsche Bank’s crash is being shrugged off by average joes on mainstream media… and besides, the central banks will save us, right?

Well, Deutsche contagion is spreading… rapidly.

Since Deutsche’s recent highs, the short-end of the EUR-USD basis swap curve has collapsed…

He then, ever so graciously, offered everyone some pornographic charts, proving that counter-party risk hedging is in fact soaring.

20160928_basis_0

20160928_basis2_0

20160928_basis3_0

Enjoy.

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OPEC Production Cuts Hammer Refinery Stocks

Crack spreads are still rich, above $14.

crack

But the working theory is, with lower US production levels and higher Brent crude pricing, margins at American refiners will shrink. It has been a wretched year for refiners all year, an olde school favorite sector of mine. I often harken back to the days of when I was rock solid long and strong WNR, without a moment of flaccid wavering. I bore the brunt of a harsh, Greek led, sell off and came out the other end a better man.

But much of the old refiner trade was based on the spread between WTI and Brent. With the U.S. oil production boom, refiners were grabbing cheap WTI and selling it at Brent pricing. It was egregious, quasi-illegal, and fantastic. Subsequently, all of that has gone away. The spreads between WTI and Brent have vanished and American oil is something the House of Saud scowls upon (cue Gary from spongebob).

Once again, the refiners are getting smoked. Look at those YTD losses.

refiners

So what exactly do the revenues and earnings situation look like for them? Let’s dive into some revenue and earnings charts for the quintessential poster child for the industry, HFC, courtesy of Exodus.
earnings

revs

On the price to sales basis, the stock is the cheapest since 2010.

ps

This is just a boom and bust industry, no one knows where the bottom truly is. Buyers beware.

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Oppression is So Trendy: Women’s Chess Championship to Be Held in Iran — Forced to Compete in Hijab

It’s all the rage amongst pseudo-liberal circles these days. One must sympathize with the ‘cultures’ of others, in this case, the laws mandated by unenlightened, barbarous, men who teach their boys how to properly beat their wives and to make them wear hijabs — for the sake of bittersweet morality. All across western civilizations, government controlled propaganda are teaching our young to conform with oppressive thinking in order to be liberally minded. Ironies abound.

See, we’ve transcended freedom and have now moved towards introducing inequality and oppression as a form of new age thinking — in order to be tolerant to others.

Enter the Female World Championship

This year, lucky for all of those western girls with blonde hair, it will be held in Iran. Back in 1979, after the Islamic Revolution, women have been forced to wear hijabs in Iran — strictly enforced by the comically fucked ‘morality police’ — who will undoubtedly burn in hell immediately after death. As such, the young girls participating in the tournament will be forced, mind you, to wear hijabs — because showing your hair is woefully scandalous and also a blasphemy.

Only a complete moron would arrange for a female chess tournament to be held in Iran. Maybe next year they’ll hold the event in Aleppo, in order to be multi-cultural and all.

As a result, Grandmasters are protesting the event and have accused the government body, FIDE, for being assholes and against women’s rights.

“This violates all what sports means. Sport should be free of discrimination by sex, religion and sexual orientation, “said Carla Heredia, Grandmaster and World Champion ACO’14 ’15, Pan American Champion ’12, Ecuador Olympic Team.

Carla furthered, saying “The obligation to use hijab is one issue, another one is that women can’t share room with a male if she is not married to him. So the question remains what would happen if women chess players want to share the room with a male coach or if women chess players want to prepare for the game visiting the coach’s room.”

FIDE is saying the women should, basically, shut the fuck up and put on the hijab, and to ‘respect’ the ‘cultural differences.’ No shit.

If one of these girls violate the hijab law, when in Iran, they will face arrest, a fine, and a public shaming. Maybe the ‘morality police’ will make them mop floors and iron sheets in the public square?

As if this story couldn’t get more bizarre, one of the young women protesting the event is the US champion, who goes by the name Nazi Paikidze. You really can’t make this up.

nazi

Nazi opines.

“It is absolutely unacceptable to host one of the most important women’s tournaments in a venue where, to this day, women are forced to cover up with a hijab.”

“I understand and respect cultural differences. But, failing to comply can lead to imprisonment and women’s rights are being severely restricted in general.

“It does not feel safe for women from around the world to play here.” Paikidze added: “I am honoured and proud to have qualified to represent the United States in the Women’s World Championship. But, if the situation remains unchanged, I will most certainly not participate in this event.”

 

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