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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

When I Sell $BZUN Tomorrow, Le Fly Will Be 5 for the Past 5

I am batting 1.000 over the past week and there’s nothing you can do about it. I intend to sell BZUN tomorrow, when it gaps open again, and place those funds into either more IQ or more BILI.

I tell you these things, in spite of your hatred for me, because you have small financial means and can do nothing to stop me. In your head, you’re winning, but you never actually stepped into the arena with me.

I will be 5 for 5 when I sell BZUN tomorrow and 6 for 6 when I sell BILI and 7 for 7 when I sell IQ — and there’s nothing that you or your stupid friends can do about it.

Good Day.

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Stocks Slump After Trump Says He Doubts China Trade Talks Will Work

Don’t worry gents, this is ‘the art’ of the deal.

If you cannot see the art, it is because you are not an artist, which is fine. Go back to your clay homes and make your family a giant pot of steamed rice and just wait for the artist to complete his picture. When he is ready, like magic, everything will be better.

In other news, Trump’s China hating guy, Peter Navarro, has been cursing out people left and right during talks. This is not art, but the stick that goes with the carrot. Trump tossing Navarro out there in the wild, with the Chinese, is like tossing a PTSD Vietnam vet into the jungles of Hanoi to discuss terms on a new private prison to be built for foreign nationals.

During one trade meeting at which Chinese officials talked at length about history and international relations, Navarro used an expletive in telling his Chinese counterparts he did not need a history lesson, according to a source briefed on the exchange.

However, another source with personal knowledge of the discussions said Navarro did not “curse out” Chinese officials and described the bilateral discussions as “cordial.” The person suggested that the story about Navarro started as part of a coordinated “shivving campaign” that points back to Mnuchin.

Navarro has problems with how Mnuchin has negotiated with Chinese officials, a source familiar with the discussions said. The person said Navarro took issue with Mnuchin canceling team trade discussions in Beijing and negotiating with the Chinese delegation himself. The trade advisor has also taken issue with the path of the talks, believing the Treasury secretary is not doing enough to protect U.S. intellectual property, the source said.

The Treasury Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the apparent tension between Navarro and Mnuchin.

The uncertainty over Navarro’s role clouds critical Washington trade talks between the U.S. and China, which follow a separate round of negotiations in Beijing earlier this month. The world’s two largest economies are looking to defuse escalating tensions that have prompted fears about heavy tariffs and a potential trade war.

In a statement Wednesday, the White House said Mnuchin would lead the talks, along with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. The White House added that “additional senior administration officials” would attend, but did not name Navarro.

On Wednesday, a White House official told CNBC that “Peter is going to be participating in the event” and he is “part of the talks.”

Trump has long pledged to crack down on China for alleged unfair trade practices and theft of U.S. intellectual property by Chinese companies. But he seeks to do so without retaliatory measures from China that threatened to damage the U.S. agricultural industry.

According to a list obtained by CNBC, China’s delegation in Washington includes more than a dozen high-ranking government officials managing the country’s central bank, agricultural policy and telecommunications industry.

Axios also reported that Navarro cursed out Mnuchin too, all part of the pageantry of good cop, bad cop, being acted out for the Chinese. The way it works is very simple: unleash Peter on them in a room with no hope of Mnuchin. Negotiations will be sideways, after 30 minutes of Peter telling the Chinese how much he hates them. Then, like a white knight from an evil bond film, Mnuchin will appear and save the day. The Chinese will take less, fearing Navarro might get his way and give them nothing at all.

‘Tis, the art of the deal, folks.

Markets were down more than 100, now off by just 60 on news of this article being rumored to have been written.

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Getting Long Solar Degeneracy

I like the fact that Californians are soon going to be FORCED to have solar panels on their new homes. This is the brand of authoritarianism that can make us a lot of money. I’m all about freedom, up until the point it gets in the way of making money. If we can simply strip people of their rights in an effort to make more money, I am with that too.

Today I wanted exposure to solar, due to high crude. I bought the top ranked stock in Exodus, top Sharpe ratio in solar: ENPH. You can do nothing about it. It will trade higher.

Early going, I am enjoying success of the wanton nature in BZUN. Also, I am eagerly optimistic, almost giddy, over BILI. With HUYA hitting $23 and the sector on fire, it’s only a matter of time before traderFAGS figure out BILI exists.

Watch and learn, son.

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Goldman: Tesla is Fucked, Company Needs $10 Billion to Remain Solvent

I’ve never seen a company being targeted like this. Elon Musk must be on some sort of banker kill list. Maybe he fucked one of their girlfriends, or perhaps stole some engineers from someone important. Say what you want about Tesla, it’s comical to see the media attempt to ruin them on a daily basis, showcasing each and every car accident, making it headline news, as if a fucking plane just crashed into the Empire State building.

Sure, Tesla needs cash — but has any of these losers bothered to look at the fucking share price?

This is a $50b company. They can raise $10b today in a secondary if they absolutely wanted to.

Here’s Goldman, fear mongering by pretending Tesla doesn’t have the immediate means to raise capital — tossing out a $10b number as if this were some sort of sub prime lending capital call.

Source: CNBC

“We believe this level of capital transactions may be funded through multiple avenues, including new bond issuance, convertible notes, and equity,” analyst David Tamberrino wrote in a note to clients Thursday. “We see several options available to the company to refinance maturing debt and raise incremental funds, which should allow Tesla to fund its growth targets.”

While Tamberrino was confident chief executive Elon Musk won’t have trouble acquiring the extra cash, the infusion will likely present its own costs. Issuing additional debt could weigh on the company’s credit profile, while supplying more stock or convertible bonds would dilute current shareholders.

Despite the forecast for additional capital requirements and a sell rating from Goldman, Musk insisted he has no intention of raising new money as recently as May 2.

Asked earlier this month if he’s mulling a capital raise, Musk simply said “no.”

“I specifically don’t want to,” he said on a conference call after Tesla posted first-quarter earnings that beat expectations.

Tesla finished the quarter with roughly $2.7 billion in the bank, down from a balance of $3.4 billion at the end of 2017. The persistent cash burn has kept analysts like Tamberrino unconvinced that the Palo Alto, California-based company can keep going at this pace without a larger financial cushion while short sellers keep the heat on the company’ equity.

Tamberrino believes the stock price will fall to $195 over the next six months, a 31 percent decline.

Great, more nothing. I can’t wait to see TSLA shorts roasted on a spit.

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Futures Soft Due to Old Man Waiving Cane Over $CSCO’s Earnings Miss

No one gives a shit about CSCO anymore. This isn’t 1999 you oldFAG. Get with the times. Life these days is about not giving a fuck about old companies and instead focusing on the new. What the fuck is FB and SPOT doing? That’s what the young people want to hear about — not some bullshit about CSCO being regular pole punching losers.

Futures are slightly lower — but Europe is higher. Brent crude is $80 and it’s only a matter of time before crude tops and splits you fuckers in half for getting greedy.

My BZUN crushed numbers and is sharply higher. Prepare for more winship.

I think it’s fair to say my cold streak is over — as I am 6 for my last 7 and the profits are streaming in on a regular basis now.

(30 minutes later)

Sorry, this post was supposed to go out earlier — but I got distracted on a phone call.

In short, fuck Cisco, but let’s all hope and pray the zebra will start braying again from being foolhardy and let’s see this market truly go down, even if it costs us a few pennies for our troubles.

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REMINDER: HIGHER INTEREST RATES PORTEND HIGHER STOCK PRICES

As the media issues fake news reports, trying to get you into dastardly SOXS positions, I am here to remind you that higher interest rates is a precursor for higher stock prices. It has always been this way. You can try, and fail, to prove me wrong.

Go ahead.

Presently, the 10yr is at 3.10%. Although negative in the long term for debt laden faggots, it has always led to an immediate rush for equities.

In the meantime, Exodus Quant is fucking crushing the market, up nearly 5% over the past two weeks — 120bps better than the SPY.

Here are the returns for each holding per stock. The details of the positions are for members only. But I’m sure so many of you are doing so much better with your elaborate technical based strategies and scoff at such returns.

Including BILI, Le Fly is 5 for 5 in recent trades, with IQ on hold. Watch it melt up tomorrow. I’ve eliminated the loss in SOXS and now find my deepest most malevolent enemies saddled by it — sweating profusely as the market gears to grind higher.

TZOO was a +21% winner over 1 week. Thank you for the accolades and I hope that you bought it now, positioning for the true move higher.

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GETTING LONG ANOTHER CHINESE LOTTO STOCK

This is how the game is done (extra cringe).

I bought BILI, another Chinese streaming racket, at $13.18 and I will sell it for north (cringe) of $18 in less than 1 week hence.

If you’re wondering what’s driving this shit — look no further than HUYA — a recent spin off from YY. People want the next Twitch and are desperate enough to look for it in China.

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I Escaped the Zoo and Made 21% in the Process

Make that 4 in a row, following the great SOXS blow up of 2018. I blew out of my TZOO for a 21% gain — and the two enemies who read this blog daily are getting smoked in SOXS today. It should be noted they both took out fictitious long positions after I had sold at “the bottom” and are now tethered to the stock until they admit they ficticiously sold it.

Both men have hearts as black as grizzled mud and deserve each and every loss they endure.

With the proceeds of my TZOO expedition, I’m in cash — for now, until I better assess the situation.

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FORKED OUT OF $DUST — ROLLED INTO $VALE

This would be my third consecutive winning trade following the $SOXS scandal. Although a small win, a humble family man, such as myself, takes wins where he can. With the proceeds, I bought the iron/steel stock with the highest Sharpe and dared Mother Market to do something about it.

The stock never goes down, ever. So if I lose on this trade here, and this goes without saying, I am truly cursed.

I do have a healthy cash position at the moment, eagerly waiting for me skillsets to kick in — the natural instincts that guided me over the years. Life is similar to trading, in that it’s filled with peaks and valleys. The trick is to limit your exposure when you suck and go all in when you’re on fire.

Top picks: IQ, VALE, BZUN, TZOO

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Higher Yields Causing Major Blow Ups in Household Name Stocks — Plus Bitcoin is Dead Again

Let me just say this to you, okay? No man should have to walk his fucking coyote at 6:30am — period. This morning I was entreated to an energetic snarling in my face by this coyote who lives in my house. After 5 minutes of incessant cajoling, I took the fucking dog for a walk. Lo and behold, it wasn’t an emergency of some sort. The dog just wanted to chase birds and yell at squirrels. She didn’t even defecate on my neighbors lawn. After 30 minutes of wasting my time, while being dead tired, I took her back home and for a brief moment or two I hated her — until I realized I was just sleep deprived and her life wasn’t as exciting as mine, and that I was being a faggot.

Futures are slightly lower — but bitcoins are getting crushed. We’re talking full throttle massacre in the crypto space — taking the entire asset class below $400b. Meanwhile, the dollar is cruising higher again by 0.6% and the ten year is at 3.06%. Mortgage rates are sharply higher and this can only be viewed as deflationary, a force to be reckoned with, a vortex that is as black as it is a hole.

Simultaneously, a whole swath of household names are getting fucking crushed. This kids is called ‘multiple contraction.’ Because the Fed is purposely trying to hurt the economy via higher rates, the effect is felt first in stocks with high levels of debt and/or who pay a dividend. Due to lack of growth, the main driver for many household consumer names is income. The higher a tax sheltered government bond yield goes, the less attractive a somewhat risky American icon becomes. Hence, we’re at a fork in the road now: is this something to fear, the proverbial canary in the coal mine or more nothing?

On this topic, Goldman upgraded GIS today, so there’s always that.

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