Superb Xmas Rally Inside of the FAGBOX — Continuation is a Foregone Conclusion

Listen to me now, as if I was Santa Claus sitting inside your house eating cookies. Yesterday’s chicanery is all but a bleak memory. In its place, pure joy and ebullience. I sold out of my SQQQ position and it crushed my spirit for 6.5%. I am doing fine, since all of my gold positions are up. Net, net, on the cash invested, I am up 0.6% for the session.

But more important than that is for you to understand that my trading account, the foolish thing that I broadcast out to the world is nothing more than 25% of my overall account. My quant account is higher by 1.5%, without a care in the world.

Here is what I am going to tell you, so listen closely. Barring some sort of perverted reversal spawn from hell, we are, in fact, going back to the upper boundaries of said FAGBOX.

Observe.

Today’s big ass candle (BAC) give the subtle nod to candlestickFAGS everywhere that all is well and good with stocks.

That being said, given my recent foray in trading intra-day assumptions, I’ve restricted myself from trading until the end of the session. This way I remove any uncertainty that might arise from intra-day chicanery and black plans designed to fool smart men like me into tomfoolery.

We’re very good at surging in the morning. While we might give it all up in a few hours hence, it’ll be worth it entirely. This morning we are entreated to a pastiche of positive news. Since you don’t read or write in any respectable manner, I will tell you exactly what is transpiring now.

1. Xmas is within a fortnight of happening. Santa Claus is gonna swoop in down your chimney and inverse burglarize your homes. The kids will love it and will even entice him and his animals to cavort your living room by leaving him cookies and milk.

2. The thug from Huawei was released on bail last night, only after having to give in to 12 Royal court demands, including $10 million and obtaining permanent residence in Canada. Her job as CFO of one of the largest tech companies in the world has ended. Go in peace. Her extradition trial is scheduled for a few months from now, after which she will be greyhounded into NY in shackles to live out the rest of her days as an inmate.

3. It appears discussions with China over the ongoing trade war are going well. America is winning again and those damned Chinese are going to pay, alongside the Mexicans.

4. Since we went down so much recently, it only makes sense that we now trade higher. There’s a litany of concerns about the market; but none of that matters now. The Fed is going to stop meddling and MUH bull market, and BIG wins, and BIG ass tax cuts and orders of magnitude of things of that nature.

Trade in peace, young Prince.

I’ve never seen or heard of a bail hearing lasting this long. But it appears the Canadian judge bestowed mercy unto the criminal, Meng Wanzhou. Perhaps now the Chinese will release the Canadian diplomat?

Here’s the hilarious rundown and absurd conditions set forth by the royal magistrate.

#MengWanzhou's team had proposed 12 conditions for her to comply with if she is granted bail. Judge just read them out in court, but it's unclear whether or not he will agree with them in the final decision. #huawei

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

Judge: lawyers for #MengWanzhou have assured that Meng and her husband can come up with $7.5 million cash, as Crown wanted a large substantial cash amount for deposit.

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

Judge: I order: that ms Meng may be released from custody upon her entering into a recognizance in the amount of $10 million, including a cash deposit of $7 million. (with five or more sureties) #mengWanzhou

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

Conditions:
1) Keep the peace
2) report to 202 1855 Burrard to supervisor
3) provide supervisor with telephone and cell numbers. must be able to be contacted to confirm compliance with conditions.
4) remain in BC
5) reside at 4005 w 28th ave
6) be indoors from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

7) remain in portion of richmond, North shore and Vancouver outlined by Lions Gate
8) surrender passports
9) have Lions Gate provide 24-7 security
1) comply with Lions Gate employees, allow them access to property

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

that was 10) comply with lions gate..
11) Lions Gate can take her into custody, apprehend her.
12) Must comply with the ankle bracelet monitoring company

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

13) Must agree to pay for all the costs associated with the services of Lions Gate and RSC (ankle monitoring)
14) Must at all times, when not at residence, carry a copy of recognizance and present to police upon request
15) Must consent to any police, without notice to home

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

16) Must attend court whenever required. Must surrender into custody whenever required.

"That is my decision" – judge. Courtroom bursts out clapping.

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

Crown lawyer: the 60 days that the US government has to file a formal extradition request ends on Jan 8 2019.

If USA does not file that at the time, she must be released, says judge. #huawei #MengWanzhou

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

Judge: Ms Meng: you must return to court on Wednesday Feb 6 2019 to fix a further date in these proceedings. #Huawei #MengWanzhou

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

#MengWanzhou smiles and nods at her husband. Wipes a tear from her eye. She is still in the courtroom confereing with her legal team

— Michael Mui (@Mui24hours) December 11, 2018

Futures are +60 Dow points on this news. This, like several other things, was weighing on investor psyche. Good news for bull-shitters.

Be me.

Wake up bullish AF. Toss on long trades in the morning, boasting and shit about how you’re gonna buy more. Sashay hard into triple upside ETFs — feeling like a fucking champ.

Later on, bear witness to rally soil itself. Triple upside ETFs become shit. Think the reversal means certain doom, so you sell out and book 2-5% losses on the lot.

Markets continue lower, so you dive into TVIX and TZA. Shit reverses almost immediately and the trade war won again. You panic and book super fast losses in TVIX and TZA, 5% and 2.5%, respectively.

As soon as you sell, markets collapse again and the stock Gods smack you in the face with their cocks.

All in all, because of my allocation limitations, I drew down 100bps because of this chicanery. It could’ve been worse and I definitely feel like going short now — but I’ve lost the right to do anything today — because I trade incorrectly inside of the FAGBOX. I stepped in hard, almost sideways into it, thinking I was immune to the horrors of it, and ended up fucked, forked, radish.

UPDATE: I could not help myself. Long SQQQ

What fuckeries we will have, indeud. It appears the fixer for Trudeau in Hong Kong got himself into a spate of trouble today, leading to his eventual arrest by the very fair and democratic Chinese government.

Micheal Kovrig has been arrested and the CFO of Huawei is still rotting in prison, in the middle of the longest bail hearing known to mankind — which is going on day 3.

More on the seized upon Canadian.

“We are aware of the situation of a Canadian detained in China. We have been in direct contact with the Chinese diplomats and representatives. We are engaged on the file which we take very seriously and we are of course providing consular assistance to the family,” Trudeau said, echoing comments by his foreign affairs department.

“The Canadian government is seized with this case and will continue to speak with the Chinese government,” said Guillaume Bérubé, spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada. “Due to provisions of the Privacy Act, no further information can be disclosed.”

Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale declined to say whether the government believes it is retaliation for Canada’s arrest it of a high-profile Chinese executive in Vancouver on an American extradition request.

“We’re obviously worried about whenever a Canadian is put in a situation that puts them at some risk or jeopardy, where’s there’s no apparent or obvious cause or trigger for that,” he said.

“So, before we characterize it, we want to make sure we get all the facts. But at the same time we are sparing no effort to do everything we possibly can to look after his safety.”

Kovrig worked at the Canadian embassy from 2014 to 2016 and for a few months in the Hong Kong consulate, and is now senior adviser on north-east Asia for the International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organization that promotes ways to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.

The organization, the ICG, said in a statement on its website: “We are doing everything possible to secure additional information on Michael’s whereabouts as well as his prompt and safe release.”

Without question, this is reciprocity for the barbaric actions of Canada, at America’s request. Nevertheless, stocks are moving higher again and such grandeur is both deserving and appropriate, give the present environs.

This is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen on teevee, by a President.

Watch it all the way through.

Art Cashin sums it up.

“I have been around for not quite 80 years and I have never seen anything like this … and the stupidity to let it go on,” said Art Cashin, director of floor operations UBS. He added that the televised exchange increases uncertainty around the projects will move forward in a divided government. “It doesn’t look like they’ll get very much done.”

What does this mean for you?

Total doom.

We’re now in the process of negating the reversal hammer of yesterday and potential hollow candle, and instead run headlong into a bearish pattern that is assuredly destined to lay waste to overzealous dip buyers.

I sold all of my upside ETFs and bought TVIX — betting on destruction.

Early this morning I took 5% positions in TNA, FAS, SOXL, and LABU. I did so thinking I’d be wrong, prepared to double those positions by the end of the day. The rationale for such craziness is the idea we’re readying for 2-3 up days of pure Xmas joy. It’s a fair assessment and certainly within the realm of possibilities. Is it not?

Right now, many of my readers are rolling their eyes, UPSET, that I would do such a thing. Fuck off. I’m merely exploring the inner depths of my depravity. Of course I know the risks and I am aware that January is likely to wreak havoc on investors, in a way not seen since the Tulip craze. However, before that happens, I’m interested in a little mean reversion — if I might be so bold.

Everything hinges on HYG. It’s up, so I’m bullish.

I’m 60% long, with lots of gold. My largest holding is TLT — and it’s up — so fuck off.

In theory, we should close at the highs. But if we don’t, head for the hills.

There are many reasons as to why we’re going to rally today and some of you are so jaded, and cynical, you will not believe it’s possible. But rest assured, we’re going to rally from here, and more.

The news is as expected, more Chinese trade war victories.

The rundown.

China’s commerce ministry said in a statement Liu had spoken to Mnuchin and Lighthizer on Tuesday morning, Beijing time, on a pre-arranged telephone call.

“Both sides exchanged views on putting into effect the consensus reached by the two countries’ leaders at their meeting, and pushing forward the timetable and roadmap for the next stage of economic and trade consultations work,” the ministry said.

In comments reported separately by China’s Foreign Ministry, the government’s top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, said if China and the United States cooperated, it would benefit the whole world.

“If China and the United States are antagonistic, then there are no winners, and it will hurt the whole world,” Wang told a forum.

The United States should look at China’s development in a more positive light, and constantly look to “expand the space and prospects for mutual benefit”, he said.

Source: BBG

Bloomberg News said the proposal would cut the tariffs to 15 percent from 40 percent, citing people familiar with the matter. China raised tariffs on U.S. autos to 40 percent in July in retaliation to U.S. tariffs.

Why we permitted this fuckery to continue in China for so long is another question. But the bottom line is this — the fucker of a market reversed hard off the lows yesterday and closed up. The candleFAGS point to a hammer reversal day and I do agree — it’s a very bullish technical pattern. We’re very likely to get a major hollow candle today, followed by 2-3 additional up days inside of this range — up to $280 on the SPY.

Very productive conversations going on with China! Watch for some important announcements!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 11, 2018

Want the worse case scenario wrapped up in a nice bow, you lazy fuckers? Well here it is — your generations crash to come — the reason you’ll hate the essence of life and America — the thing you didn’t see coming until it happened.

Heading into 2007, the Fed hiked rates 17 times, from 1% to 5.25%, until it broke the housing market. We all saw it coming. You didn’t need to be smart or keen to know it was going to cause dislocations. Those on Wall Street at the time knew of the CMOs and CLOs, the CDOs that were neatly tucked away like little time bombs, patiently waiting in the midst to destroy the world. Since the crash of 2008, Wall Street has been borrowing more money than ever. As a point in fact, corporate debt has more than trebled and that’s so wonderful for stock buybacks and bonuses, and expansion — the hiring of unlimited amounts of salesmen designed to propel growth to new heights — the effervescent temerity that kept the whores of Babylon content these past 10 years.

This out tonight: Janet Yellen warns of poor underwriting on America’s $9 trillion + problem.

“Corporate indebtedness is now quite high and I think it’s a danger that if there’s something else that causes a downturn, that high levels of corporate leverage could prolong the downturn and lead to lots of bankruptcies in the non-financial corporate sector,” Yellen told economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman at the City University of New York on Monday.

“I think a lot of the underwriting of that debt is weak. I think investors hold it in packages like the subprime packages … the same thing has happened. It’s called CLOs, or collateralized loan obligations,” she added.

The comparison to the infamous practice of securitizing large amounts of subprime mortgage loans into bundles may spook some investors who recall the consequences of the housing crisis between 2007 and 2010. Corporate indebtedness has ballooned in recent years, with companies now carrying a $9.1 trillion debt load compared to just $4.9 trillion in 2007.

What splendour! What gravitational fuckery! What wonder!

This is precisely what you want to see in a downward spiraling tape: a boring close. Nothing too crazy. Heck, even the Russell closed lower on the day. Breadth was abysmal and nothing really looks good — aside from SAAS.

Bulls need at a minimum 2 more up days — strong from open to close. We need some hollow candles on those charts. Volume isn’t necessary, just price stabilization. There are leadership stocks in software readying to shoot higher. All we need is a little Fezziwhig joy and Xmas spirit and off we go.

Recapping what I did today: I covered all of my shorts this morning and re-upped my position on TLT to maximum and bought some NUGT. My cash is 60%.

If I see stocks open strong tomorrow, I will very likely allocate heavily on the long side.