MARKETS PRESS LOWER ON THE 33RD ANNIVERSARY OF 1987 CRASH

I recall the day well. Eleven year old Fly picked up the newspaper and read the NY Daily News headline of market calamity, at the same time a cockroach was crawling up my stomach — a most heinous and memorable moment during young Fly’s pre-pubescent history. This crash headline has since been seared into my memory and I’ve been preparing for it ever since.

I am the foremost expert in market crashes. I got poleaxed in 2000 — because I had been managing money recklessly and knew nothing but champagne and gigantic paychecks. But then after that I was “seasoned” and it prepped me for the fires that came in 2008. Feel free to peruse my archives on iBC and bear witness to Dr. Fly’s 60% 2008 returns.

This time around, earnings and revenues are non-existent, lower than the depths of the 2008 calamity. Certain parts of the global economy are, in fact, non-existent. At every opportunity to ride the wave lower, I am going to take it. Every single time.

Because of this pre-disposition, I’ve been scalded in about 9 out of 10 short calls to the downside. Each time, something saved markets and I was forced to cover and get long. Today I just about cleared out my trading account, amidst 1.2% losses, and parlayed into double sized FNGD and SQQQ positions. My theory is simple: everything will crash. The odds are me being right this time is of course remote. However, I cannot help myself in this regard, and will always take this trade, with earnings TTM down 60%.

We slowly draw into elections and things are certainly bound to get chaotic. Even though I’d love nothing more than to preside over sharply lower prices, I am still 65% cash and I am still 100% long in my Quant, which is 50% of my liquid net worth.

If being honest here, gun to head play, it is Etherum.

I was having a fine day trading stocks, up until the moment I chanced upon a ticker symbol DOGZ. I laughed and joked about the company eating dogs and having a chain of restaurants serving dog chops exclusively. Then it ate me up for 22%. Normally I never let a stocks dive lower than -10% on me; but I made an exception due to the veracity and violence of the move. Ultimately, I got take for 100bps on the stocks — placing me DOWN for the session by 0.75%.

I had been a winner. Now I’m not doing so well.

The Dow is down 220 and I covered my TZA hedge earlier, leaving me a forked radish, fucked.

Cash is at 50%.

I can tell this is going to be a fine trading day — having already BANGED OUT an 8% 30 second trade in AIHS. I’ve got several new irons in the fire now, hedged with TZA, and have been stalking my screens for new ideas. I do like lithium related plays now — but that is subject to recency bias and by the time I am finished writing this blog — I might hate them.

The only notable thing occurring today are rates edging higher. The 10yr is + nearly 3bps to 0.77%. Presently, not a big deal. However, should this trend continue — a very big deal, so keep an eye on it. It is worth nothing, however, higher rates usually means higher spreads — and that’s very bullish for banks.

It’s a slow as fuck day. It looked like it was going to be gangbusters last night — but, thus far, milquetoast. Perhaps we might get some excitement before the day is complete.

DEVELOPING…

I just finished having a hamburger and I was supposed to eat it without the bun, but I didn’t listen to that advice and absorbed the carbs anyway. Very soon, I will depart for tennis to practice my serve, which is dreadful, sort of like trading in a choppy tape.

I haven’t had any booze in weeks and probably won’t until my fitness goals are achieved. This pandemic quarantine has fattened me to the tune of 174lbs. I have since cut back down to 170 and have been back at the gym again, with my face mask and sanitizer wipes. I’d say my strength is rather epsilon presently, one of a tennis player and not foolsballs. But we all sacrifice something, just like I sacrificed years ago — hair for money. It was a devils bargain, but I accepted it with zeal — working long diligent hours weaseling my way through the catacombs of Wall St.

These days I run a blog, shit post on Twitter, operate a trading room of ingrates, and am building software for financial data analytics. Quite honestly, I love it all, even some of you assholes who seem intent on trying to destroy me. Bear in mind, I am thick skinned now, not like I was a decade or so ago and enjoy the negative swing backs into my direction. It only exposes my favorite American Dunning-Kruger personality disorders and for that good sirs, I am eternally thankful.

But do not come here and think jealous thoughts, or hate on some anonymous man for bragging about his stock market successes, for I have paid dearly for any of the things I happen to be good at. For every boon, there is a bust at House Fly. Take solace in the fact that my life is a constant and continuous whir of chaos needing to be organized and I’m the only one to do it.

Take for example, Stocklabs. We are 1 yr, 6mos and a trillion lines of code into the project. Each week it is finished and then it’s not, and the process continues without certainty on an indefinite scale. I do, however, use the software exclusively now for my own trading and think it’s the best thing since sliced bread. But that’s for you, the unwashed reader class, to decide.

I suppose this is a general update of sorts, a change of pace from telling you all to go fuck yourselves.

Off to tennis.

I had a rough trading week, losing more than 2.3%. I made some bad trades and lost my train of thought mid-week, and that caused me to spiral a bit. But I ended on a bright note, effervescently +76bps in a market that crushed the spirits of momentum traders — closing at the lows down 45 NASDAQS.

The other 50% of my money, invested in my quant, was higher by 1.4% for the week. Its purpose is to remove emotion from my investments, balanced once per mo in a stratagem that I have concocted, using the data analytics in Exodus. Month to date, the quant is +7.7% and my trading is up 6.2%, providing me with an extreme ease and comfort, moving gracefully throughout the market without a worry in the world.

As for what I think will happen on Monday, I have a doubled sized position in TZA and 55% cash, so of course I am waiting for a hammer to drop. But I wouldn’t count on it to happen, especially since Trump is almost craven in his desires to boost equity prices. Do not bet against this man when it comes to the market.

I bid you farewell. Have an enjoyable weekend.

I had been bogged yesterday, until bailed out by the plebs. Now I’ve got my mojo back — knocking the teeth out of my enemies and cracking skulls en route to Elysium.

I took 23 trades today, so far, most good. I booked a doubled sized profit in FUBO +13.5% and then some NNDM +6% and then some JMIA +5.8%, and then some VIPS +10%.

See pal, this is the type of person that I am — a man of extreme profit and civility. I have been generous enough to bestow upon you my missives since 2006 — all for free, with panache and grace. I have been charitable with my trading picks — because I am a man of the people, for the people, only interested in the betterment of mankind.

It’s a rainy Friday morning here in Cary, NC — land of the BBQ grill and horrifically bad pizza. Ever since moving here, we’ve been trying very hard to find good food — but sadly have only found a few. It seems the people of the south are accustomed to bedraggled fare, heavy cream macaroni n cheese overlaid with grits and a side order of a rack of ribs. People walk around, fat and slow, mostly transplants from the north, bereft of southern charm or ancestry dating back to the halcyon days of antebellum.

I have since blended into the background — traded in my Benz for a Subaru and now mingle amongst the ordinary folk, at the local country club, chin-wagging and playing games of tennis every day.

That’s my NC update — now back to trading.

Listen to me. I was slumping and trading poorly. Coming off two consecutive days of losses, I was mired in a third day — off by 1.6% at the lows. I was mostly cash and had my balls tightly clenched in a vise that was causing me anguish.

Then a comment in Exodus grabbed my attention. It went along the lines of “hey Fly doesn’t buy the room picks anymore” (guzzle, guzzle, guzzle), to which I replied that I don’t buy “room picks” when slumping because I do not want to jinx everyone else. Bear in mind for those of you unfamiliar, Exodus has 1,000+ strong in membership and all rely upon my sage guidance for financial advice — a very hard toil which is my albatross and also my curse.

To prove this deformed man my point, I went out and bought a DOUBLE SIZED position in FUBO and the stock fucking flew off the handle. I was wrong! My curse had been lifted and I was back to breaking necks along the way to Valhalla.

I ended the day 35% cash, closed out the SQQQ position, FLAT for the session. This is not a victory dance and I am certainly not out of the woods yet; but I was indeud saved by members of the canaille today — the Third Estate coming thru for Le Fly when he needed it most — a very rare and heartfelt occurrence.

Robinhood traders have been saved. A miraculous reversal in the smallest of caps is upon you — small pieces of shit flying off the handle. While, at the same time, 75% of mega cap stocks are lower for the session.

The NASDAQ is still off 85 and I still have my SQQQ position. However, I have since added a flurry of smaller capped names in an flaccid attempt to be one with the Robinhood cadre of trader — 5 fig account shopped right out from hell into the world of high finance.

Miserably, I am down for the session and I have indeed boarded the ark, via TLT — but today’s tape, as of now, looks ok.

Last night was a firestorm of controversy on Twitter, after the platform banned the article discussing Hunter “Crackhead” Biden and his fucking emails. The banning of the article and oversight of the content consumed by people is what made the story 100x what it actually was — as such, we are seeing Biden related plays mud-stomped today.

Do not dismiss this point. When you see markets trying to price shit in, pay attention. Solars and cannabis plays are leading to the downside, along with electric cars sans NIO. It appears a dark and gloomy cloud is cast above markets, as people try to figure out if this story has legs. After all, the tech who gave the back up file to Giuliani claims he gave the original laptop to the FBI a year prior. If this is true, then the FBI can very easily verify or deny these claims. Moreover, Giuliani claims to have more damning information regarding a possible money scheme between the crack head and pops.

We’re not delving back into politics here, believe me. But I think this is the reason why markets are coming to terms with uncertainty. A truly damning narrative to the Biden campaign might in fact reduce his chances at winning and then all of those electric boogaloo stocks will be BTFO.

I cleared out my trading today, holding only SQQQ.

If you entered today thinking tera caps were going to strum higher — you were met at the door with a metal pipe to your face. MEGA CAPS were annihilated amidst rancid breadth. The Nasdaq shed nearly 100 points and all trading patterns were UPROOTED, making for a very devilish day.

I was placed into the meat grinder and GRILLED on the stove medium rare and eaten whole, a loss of 2.9% for the session. I closed out with a blend of really shitty stocks and SQQQ — 70% cash. I am mindful of my inability to capture the essence of certain trading days. Everything I sold gapped higher and most of the things I bought plummeted with great alacrity.

When in these squalls, I find it best to keep pushing and never really walking away from the terminal. While I might end up losing every cent in my trading account, it’s not likely to occur. Also, I have a long and storied, some might say rich, history in being able to outmaneuver cantankerous tapes, which is what this is. Do not pretend to enjoy this sort of market — the uneasiness of apocalyptic fundamentals paired nicely with a printing press to make all of the baddies go away. But sometimes, and this goes without saying, the bad guys really do win and you’re left in a murderhole counting your own fingers of your severed arm.

I do not pretend to know the exact direction of the market. But we are in October, a month infamous for market dislocations and calamity. I would not be surprised, nor disappointed, to see us down 10% within a fortnight.