Waiting For the Hammer

The market has been stuck, down 170, for hours. If you got short, after the big swoop lower, you are pretty much sitting on your thumbs doing dick.

Be wary of the prospect of fresh money buttressing this drop, as the quarter winds down. Many money managers have missed this rally and would love to get in a little cheaper, in order to show their shareholders how smart they are. Essentially, the market is a perpetual game of asshats versus fucktards, jockeying for the high ground, in order to get struck by egregious lightning bolts.

Earlier today, I said it was time to sell and go short. However, thus far, I have not done anything, mainly because stocks are down too much to short. Most commodity names are down more than 10% and I do not believe the quarter will end, without a little window dressing.

Bottom line: My top picks are Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] and OmniVision Technologies, Inc. [[OVTI]] . I will try to limit the damage being done in my small crappers, by making advantageous trades, both long and short. Until the market picks a clear direction, I need to stay flexible and avoid the giving back more of my gains.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsmihPa1rp8 616 500]

I had a feeling Mother Market would take a few wild swings at me. However, I didn’t think she would break my jaw so quickly. Across the board, the market is breaking down, led by asshole commodity names. For those of you who are addled by poor reading comprehension skills: I sold out of [[ERX]] weeks ago, in the high 30’s.

But, that doesn’t matter.

I have lots of stuff boxing me into a corner, sort of like a rabid pitbull snapping away at me, or better yet, a shark on a leash. My bullish dreams of free goats and lucky leprechauns, running through green meadows, without a worry in the world, have been interrupted by way of exploding coal silos.

I have very little choice now, but to hedge for Dear God and pray for an outcome that does not include the destruction of “The Fly” and melt down of Senor Tropicana, who is sipping on pina coladas at some non-descript beach right now.

With my money, I will sell another 10% of my longs, and get short to the tune of approximately 10%, leaving an additional 13% in cash. I will use the cash to average into my new shorts, if need be. Instead of cherry picking individual short ideas, I will use bastard inverse ETF’s, initially, then mosey on over to specific ideas.

Developing…

Thus far, the crowds for the new iPhone 3gs have been good. No matter what the idiots on CNBC say, the new iPhone will be a boon for all parts makers. So, with that in mind, it’s very important to buy an iPhone, take a hammer out, then smash your brand new iPhone to pieces, in order to see what’s inside. Or, you can just surf the web and find out by way of “reading.”

Here’s what I’ve found, so far:

Elpida (ELPDF.pk) & Toshiba (TOSBF.pk): Dram die (replacing Samsung)

No Marvell Technology Group Ltd. [[MRVL]] or CSR wifi chips: big loss for those losers. They were replaced by Broadcom Corporation [[BRCM]] .

Toshiba: 16gbyte NAND Flash

Intel Corporation [[INTC]] is providing memory for baseband processor.

Possible [[ARMH]] and Imagination Technologies (IGNMF.pk) graphics chips (INTC owns 14% of Imagination, trading on the London).

Elpida DDR SDRAM win.

OmniVision Technologies, Inc. [[OVTI]] auto focus 3 mpixel win.

Infineon (IFNNY.pk) baseband processors.

No word on touchscreen processors yet. My guess Cypress Semiconductor Corporation [[CY]] and Synaptics, Incorporated [[SYNA]] are somehow involved.

Skyworks Solutions, Inc. [[SWKS]] amps.

TriQuint Semiconductor [[TQNT]] duplexer modules.

Possible: Atmel Corporation [[ATML]] may have supplanted Silicon Storage Technology, Inc. [[SSTI]] (minor part).

“You must BEHOLD, when you do not know what to expect.”

Fly, 2010

UPDATE:

Here’s a special Father’s day song for all you home gamers.

–DJ Fly

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MP0APvTSMMw 616 500]

My positions shed a little more today, due to my over exposure to small caps and commodity related names. In recent weeks, the general market has corrected very little, but the internals are far worse.

All commodity related names have been God smacked, over the past 10 days, ranging from -10 to -30%. Yet, at the same time, tech stocks have held up well.

Part of my recent frustrations stems from the fact that I’ve been exactly right, regarding the tech run, but no longer own the names worth owning, if you know what I mean. I took profits in Dell Inc. [[DELL]] , Atheros Communications, Inc. [[ATHR]] , Cavium Networks, Inc. [[CAVM]] , Starent Networks Corp. [[STAR]] , RF Micro Devices, Inc. [[RFMD]] , [[SPIL]] , Teradyne, Inc. [[TER]] , Amkor Technology, Inc. [[AMKR]] , Advanced Semiconductor Engineering (ADR) [[ASX]] , Ciena Corporation [[CIEN]] , Brocade Communications Systems, Inc. [[BRCD]] and Aruba Networks, Inc. [[ARUN]] , and now find myself saddled with shit.

Well, shit is a relative term. However, it’s worth noting, I’d prefer owning the stocks mentioned above, my sales, than the ones I have now: Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , Trident Microsystems, Inc. [[TRID]] , [[ENTR]] , Sify Technologies Limited [[SIFY]] etc.

I knew something like this (get stuck with shit) could happen; it always does towards the tail end of a monster rally. However, I am not stupid and consider all of the crappy positions to be of little consequence, with exception to FTK. Most of my small cappers are less than 5% of my holdings. In recent weeks, I’ve been bulking up on [[UNG]] , Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] , OmniVision Technologies, Inc. [[OVTI]] and GameStop Corp. [[GME]] . Additionally, at the close of trading today, I was in possession of a 13% cash position.

In short, I am doing just fine, but need to get my mojo going again.

For those of you who address “The Fly” in a derogatory manner, calling me “cow” or other childish names; quit doing so immediately. I am your superior being, with a genetic makeup much finer than yours. Don’t get haughty with me, fucker. Most of the time you think like a fucking monkey, always FAZZING yourself into egregious cocksucking situations.

I have one foot out the door, due to a scheduled meeting, so this will be brief.

The market does not want to go down. There are 100’s of reasons to sell off, but none of them seem to be able to shake the unwavering optimism, displayed by investors on a daily basis—who are bidding the market up. There is an old saying, which I try to live by: “cancer is contagious; cut that shit out.” Truth be told, I am not the shining beacon of happy joy go lucky (irrelevant, my grammar, that is) at any cocktail party. However, I try to disassociate myself from lowly types and most definitely “cancer.”

The problem with many bears stems from the fact that: A. they are lowly and B. they are cancer. Folks, I must tell you, that is a very bad combination to possess. If you happen to fit that description DO NOT buy a house, for you will, most assuredly, fall victim to the ever-so-popular foreclosure proceedings.

Just about all of my stocks are up today, sans the corn on the cocks: Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] . Right now, for the day, I am down about 0.1% aka “sitting on a camel doing nothing.” Now if I was not delusional, I’d admit to myself that my current positions are not working and the market is as stubborn as an Ox. Over the past week or so, I have retraced to the tune of 6.5%, yet here I am acting like this is the dot com rally of 1999.

I cannot explain why I am so optimistic about stocks; and I know it vexes many of you. If I was examined by a psychiatrist, I am sure she would say “that fucker likes to bet against the popular trend,” which is true. I see many of my friends and colleagues setting up short sales, preparing for a resumption of “fuck you, you’re dead” trading; and I just sort of spit at them, like a camel, via big block long tickets.

My top picks are not potential 200% movers. I like Corning Incorporated [[GLW]] and OmniVision Technologies, Inc. [[OVTI]] , for specific reasons. I am buying GLW based upon shortages of glass substrates at the major foundries, due to frenzied demand for 32 inch LCD’s. And, I am buying OVTI, for their exposure to the iPhone 3gs, which they are the supplier of the camera technology. In addition, OVTI has close to $5 in cash.

As for FTK: it needs a push in the right direction. Without a doubt, I believe the stock will be significantly higher in 3 months. Just know and understand, stocks that have heavy short positions tend to get bogged down when buying interest is low. Right now, people are busy fucking around elsewhere. Once they get their financing ducks in order, the stock will rip higher, in my opinion, of course.

Notice how my charting skills are so good, so precise, it (my fucking chart) does not require “rookie lines” or commentary. The chart itself is alive, breathing; it is art.

To hold or not to hold is the question. As you shall understand and learn quickly, the fate of the markets, your fledgling business and most certainly your life is intertwined with the daily on doings of the chart, most prominently featured above. Indeud.

NOTE: The name of the stock or ETF is entirely irrelevant, which is the reason why it is ommitted, as it is none of your concern. It’s just another reason to trust your #1 source for “Chart Chompery,” from your host, Gracious Fly.