MAY 9TH LOOMS: US BOASTS OF HELPING TO SINK RUSSIA’S FLAGSHIP WAR VESSEL

On May 9th, 1945, Russia defeated the Nazi regime. It’s called “Victory Day” in Russia and considered a very important, sacred even, holiday.

This coincides with tensions ratcheting up between NATO and Russia, as the Ukrainian war draws in regional and global forces to fend off the Russian invasion. It’s rumored that Russia will order a full mobilization of its armed forces and officially declare war against Ukraine. It’s hard to imagine Russia NOT mobilizing, since all of NATO is actively targeting Russian leadership and servicemen.

While no one really knows what Russia will do, we do know the United States is goading Russia with comments designed to cause Putin to choose violence, giving NATO the pretext to launch attacks against Russia. Tonight they boasted about helping to sink the Moskva.

BREAKING: U.S. intelligence helped Ukraine sink the Russian cruiser Moskva – NBC News

Last week Pelosi, Schiff and other US politicians were in Kiev talking about defeating Russia and said nothing about de escalation. And lastly Belarusian forces are teeming on the border with Lithuania, as well as nuclear readiness exercises underway by the Russians in Kaliningrad.

In total, the mood of the west is one of invincibility — as people view Russia’s struggles in the Ukraine and deduce they’re weak. The fact is, Ukraine is strong, assisted by western intelligence, logistics, and weapons. If the war expanded into other areas of Europe, forget about GDP growth and start to worry about submarines in the Atlantic targeting LNG tankers to a gas starved Europe.

One can make a strong argument that the Ukrainian army is the strongest and most battle ready forces in all of Europe. How other European forces will stack up against a fully mobilized Russia is anyone’s guess.

All being said, none of this is bullish for stocks.

It’s finally over.

Today’s catastrophic decline, off by 6% on the NASDAQ, was the largest drop since March 9th of 2020 — the COVID panic. The good news for bulls, if there are any still alive, the next day stocks jumped 5%. The bad news, it fell 15% from that lift into what we all now remember as the worst tape since 2009.

There is nothing else to say. “The Fly” warned you about being a PERMANENT BULL CUNT. I am 20% long UVXY and unaffected by today’s cataclysm. Why?

I AM A PROFESSIONAL.

I do not lose money in stocks. I lose money in home renovations.

As for those of you who have read me since the olden days and idly watch me winning, but chose not to trade WITH ME during this historic day — might I suggest looking inward Sir. While others might win more than me in up tapes and trade stupidly into froth, Le Fly reigns supreme when the clouds are blackest and the fires are burning brightest.

Let’s hope for the best, but of course expect disaster for tomorrow’s open.

You’d have to be a lunatic to think this “dip” of more than 1,000 OFF on the Dow is a buying opportunity. Not every sell off means you should just run out there and buy. Think of all the dips you chased the past year, only to get run down by trucks as the market spiraled lower.

PERMANENT BULLS will only tell you to buy — because they’re idiots.

I am not suggesting that you sell short into a 1,000 point hole. I am, however, strongly advocating RISK AVERSION — because this sell off is nothing in comparison to what awaits you.

The 10yr bond is up an astounding 18bps today, leaving the bond market in tatters. High grade and junk are both into the shitter and out.

Presently there is an urge to BUY DIPS and get involved in “blue chips” well off their highs. Let me remind you, the earnings warnings have only just begun. The valuations you relish now are predicated on GROWTH and not rapid deterioration.

I shall not be fooled into any large position during a period of tumult. Yesterday’s +900 followed by today’s -1,000 personifies chop and is a warning of volatility to come.

Can markets bounce here?

OF COURSE. The market does stupid shit all the time. We can rally 500 points off the lows. But it’s more likely people will want to hit bids into the close, as the whirlwind of headwinds takes hold and rips through the economy accompanied by panic.

Yesterday the market errantly rallied on the news that the Fed was intent on fucking the US economy in order to stem inflation. Please describe it differently to me. I am open to suggestion.

Today we are CRASHING THRU THE FUCKING FLOORBOARDS — but we have merely just revoked yesterday’s -900 mistake.

Point being, we are likely JUST GETTING STARTED.

The first phase of the bear market was initial entry into fear, followed by tangible economic concerns and now we are in earnings FAILURE territory. The next phase is the worst: apathy. Traders will give up on the market because they never had it in them to win. They were only good in the bull market, when the Fed helped them pick stocks and everything was RIGGED in their favor.

Well fucked face, the world isn’t always kind and the market wasn’t always rigged. Now with the Fed working against you, dare I say “don’t fight the Fed” you insufferable pig.

The last 6 months stocks have sold off and most attributed it to a temporary condition thanks to the war and inflation. Stocks like SHOP were junked, down 70% from its highs. I did warn you they haven’t even missed or warned yet; but that changed today.

Big shortfalls out of W, ETSY, and SHOP and it’s only the beginning of recession trading, an era where almost all companies miss earnings because we are in a fucking recession.

I got caught up in an earnings miss this morning in seemingly recession proof stock CAH. Apparently they just blew it.

Early going stocks are selling off, with the NASDAQ -300. We can only pray and hope for extreme pain and suffering for the permanent bools.

Just last month the US committed to selling 1m barrels of crude PER DAY in order to fend of Putin. Today the WH said they’ll need to buy back 60m barrels of crude.

BIDEN ADMIN WILL SEEK TO BUY 60M BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL: CNN

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 5, 2022

WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON HERE?

Crude is up 3% and futures have dumped out, as permanent bulls fuck themselves back into oblivion.

If true, that means Biden is buying back every drop of oil he sold and more. It’s too early in the morning to deal with this shit.

I will preface this bloggery with the fact that I was down 1.1% in trading and +2.2% in my Quant. I had hedges going into the Fed meeting and Powell speech (FUCK YOU, I AM NOT CALLING HIM JPOW) and never closed them out — maybe because I was on the phone with MOVERS for a fucking hour and had no idea what the market was doing. I can only assume I would’ve been tempted to close them out and rip long for the candles presented were only green and one way for quite some time intra-day. NEVERTHELESS, I want to address a few matters in regards to PERMANENT BULL FUCKED FACES and why they should be tossed into frozen tundras and left for dead.

THEY ARE CUNTS, offer zero insight or analysis and only are programmed like NPCs to like stocks. Granted, stocks have gone up for a long time — BUT THEY AREN’T ANYMORE so fuck off with the idle comments of “stocks only go up.” No they don’t and soon they will be RIPPED FROM CROWN TO ROOT and all of your gains will be transferred to me. Sure, I am salty and I suppose, one might say, I am envious of those who partook in gains today. But let’s not pretend the drunken man walking down the correct road is a sage. He is a god damned idiot and only enjoys spoils because of chance.

THIS IS HOW THE BALANCE OF THE YEAR WILL PLAY OUT.

Earnings will continue to come in LESS THAN STELLAR and GDP will print negative for the next two quarters until the Fed finally admits they can’t keep raising rates. Unemployment will rise to 10% and the war in Russia will be kinetic and nothing you see now will be worth anything. The idea of buying into a +900 point rally will become something of a laughable FARCE and all of the permanent bulls who relish about the idea of receiving “credit” for being right will be BURIED ALIVE in their DRIP positions and long TQQQ gambits.

Markets are rallying on the news the Fed hiked by 50bps and will draw down on its balance sheet by $47.5b per mo — likely because people feared a 75bps hike. Either way, the Dow is now jimmied higher 214 and the NASDAQ by 42.

The big moves are enjoyed in the oil sector, with WTI higher by more than 5.4%.

UNDERSTAND SOMETHING: Unlike previous Fed cycles, the Fed isn’t hiking because the economy is hot. Quite the contrary. The Fed is hiking because the economy is FUCKED. This is quite a different thing and buying now implies the Fed will be successful in keeping inflation at bay. This is fallacy. We have supply disruptions that cannot be offset by a tick downward in GDP. Ergo, and this goes without saying, I am bearish.

I am, however, sanguine on commodities here.

Gents,

I am down 1.5% today because yesterday I believed in the fantasy of higher stocks. I had LABU, NET and several other non-commodity shares knifing me in the face at the open. I believed we would rally, because I was sentimental and wanted to relive the past. You cannot relive the halcyon days of 2020, no matter how hard you try. This market is not like before and even at these valuations — we are still OVERVALUED.

I am tentatively bullish on commodities, only because we are now at a pivotal point with Russia and I do believe we are fast approaching kinetic conflict with them. Under those conditions, say goodbye to single digit natty and send your regards to low $100s on crude. We are in for a supply shock and it’ll be for the best. The blood and treasure spent to save the wonderful government of Ukraine is well worth our small sacrifices. We really do need US funded biolabs on Russia’s doorstep in order to properly investigate the COVID-19 outbreak and figure out the best approach to force vaccinations into the hearts of every single living human being on the planet. We’ll get to the apes and giraffes later.

We are rallying hard off the lows and much of the gains is in secular/risk averse stocks, as well as commodity related and also solar, betwixt with utilities and other defensive stocks. I am long and hedged and should not suffer much downside the way I am constituted. I will never believe in the green light again and have taken it upon myself to only look towards my visions of black smoke and chards of metal bustling throughout your city streets. DOOM is coming and there is nothing we can do about it.

It’s over again. Bad news all around us. Russian wars harangue us around every corner. Jamie gives the US economy a 66% chance of diving head first into a pool without water.

Jamie Dimon puts to odds of a US soft landing at 33%, mild recession at 33%, severe recession at 33%

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 4, 2022

I got caught and hooked today, had to sell several stocks for big losses and now I’m down 1.8%. I pared down the losers and placed a hedge on, but my day is all but in ruins as markets race lower, revoking any and all gains in tech and biotech areas of the market because fuck you.