COLLAPSE: MARKETS INDICATE LOWER AMIDST RUSSIAN ESCALATIONS, $TGT MISSES BIG

Good morning lads.

A few things of note this morning.

TGT profits were halved, likely due to all of the looting and fuckery. Shares are on pace to endure its second largest single day decline ever, first was during market crash in 1987. The sympathy trades for this are far and wide. COST shares are off by 6% PM.

WTI and natural gas are bid higher, as the EU formulated a scheme worth $350b to remove themselves from Russian energy. The catch: it doesn’t take place until 2027.

On the war front, it seems the Russians might’ve lured Ukrainian forces north for a border pole selfie —- because those forces are now entreated to withering assaults and progress for the Russian army is hastening in Donbas. Things appear to be accelerating and it doesn’t look great for NATO.

Russia also expelled French, Italian, Spanish, and Finnish diplomats.

NASDAQ Futs are down more than 200. I told you not to get hooked. It’s over.

It was a very nice market — wasn’t it? For a moment there after Fed’s Powell started to TALK SHIT the markets crapped out and many of you dove headlong back into the concrete pool SHORT. You SIR were of course wrong. We could be in a bear market and still feel like things are getting better and how stocks might, dare I suggest, go back to record highs. These are lies and what you need to understand is — the world doesn’t work according to your fucking schedule.

For example: The morons at Tiger Global, who have become billionaires being morons whilst I blog and tweet all day with other morons, sold out from $20b worth of nonsense — booking LARGE DICKED LOSSES. This is a bellwether fund and Chase Coleman III is a well respected moron in the hedge fund industry. It would not surprise me one bit to see the market fucking V shape into his stupid face now that he’s out. Who knows what was happening? Perhaps a cabal of jewish bankers got together in a dark boardroom and plotted to eject the one WASP left standing amidst their playground. Or, maybe he just got it wrong and needed to sell and it’s all coincidental.

To us it means nothing at all, background music. This is why it’s important to not be an ideologue when trading. Leave your politics and your passions at the fucking door and trade to win every day. Take the Ws the same as the Ls and try not believe too much.

As for me, I am doing splendidly. However, it’s worth noting, Mr. Coleman III is probably doing much better but feeeeeeeling much worse.

Funny how that works.

Please do not misconstrue my incessant bearshitting commentary. I often say one thing and do another.

FOR EXAMPLE:

I hate stocks and wished they’d go to zero, probably due to some not so deep seated psychosis going on with me, but permit my Quant and Algo accounts to be 100% long. My trading is most often long and only bearish for short durations. I hedge my losses and find safe havens and then jump in when blood flows through the streets. I would of course PREFER to only see downward spiraling tapes. But, I imagine, after awhile it might get redundant.

The NASDAQ is +260 and today’s action is as boring as yesterday’s inaction.

I am quite pleased with my results, 55% cash +190bps in trading — much bigger returns in my other accounts. I have been hammered down in a FAZ position that makes up 10% of my holdings, now off by 8.5% or so. I could’ve closed it out without an issue many times during the day but I didn’t because the XLF isn’t known for such big one days moves. My best move, in all likelihood, will be to TRIPLE DOWN in FAZ — because nothing says stubborn like betting thricely on a positions that is not behaving nicely.

See what a poet I am?

Listen to me.

Bear markets are not your friend. They seek to destroy you and you can never rest your guard. Think of a bear market as a really bad neighborhood. Would you walk thru said hood with gold chains, fancy shoes, and no gun? Why, you’re liable to get raped out there looking like that.

When in a bear market one must assume there are criminal elements everywhere and you must carry your gun and be prepared to shoot. I always say, shoot first and ask questions later.

This entails selling winners when they present themselves and not loitering around for too long with them wanting more. Again, if you loiter around with your gains, someone is likely to take them from you.

Standard stuff.

Lastly, sometimes it makes sense to be on the offensive instead of always looking over one’s shoulder. This means you too can rob others of their valuables, providing you’re armed. If you see someone with a fancy watch or hat, feel free to take it. Do as you like, this is a bear market.

I’m +135bps early going, defensive but yet also on the move.

No Sir — I will not chase.

The Stocklabs 4000 Index is higher by 1.6% this morning, led by all of the nefarious scoundrel stocks that knifed lower yesterday. There is of course a chance the wall of worry is scaled higher for more than just 1 day. But I err on the side of caution in bear markets, which is why I am at recourd highs and you’re still trying to dig out from your own grave.

I went to cash this morning, only leaving my underwater FAZ position intact for the time being. I will close that out too and be 100% cash, up around 1-1.25%.

My algo driven account gets closed out tomorrow and that fucker is +7% today, fully long via TQQQ based off the Stocklabs oversold signal. That account has been used exclusively for oversold signals in 2022 and is now +18.5% for the year. My quant is also up 1%.

But this isn’t about me. You’re either reading for enjoyment or to glean into my warped mind for financial advice; but I will provide you with neither.

Good day Sir!

The NASDAQ closed down 155 and I know many of you are fixing to toss yourselves into lit fireplaces, unwilling to withstand the fires of the market and the general economy. But before you do, perhaps look at the silver lining of today’s tape. Although Elon Musk is predicting recession for 12-18mos (that’s called a depression fucked face), we enjoyed 50% breadth and numerous commodity stocks closed at session highs.

I shed 60bps in an underwhelming session but feel good being fully invested heading into what may very well be a truly horrendous session. I say this because, like all good things, it’s over. War and famine are all but assured and the notion of higher stocks in an era such as this is fanciful nonsense.

NEVERTHELESS, all we require is perhaps a single day or two to sort things out and make some more coin to fund elaborate and ornate libraries in our newly purchased overvalued homes.

Let’s not mince words here. Musk is trying to get the price to acquire Twitter way down by making these accusations about SPAM and how prevalent it might be on the Twitter platform. On that point, the valuation of Twitter almost entirely depends on active users, so if the company knowingly ignored the bots and counted them as users — they’d be guilty of fraud.

The CEO went on a long winded tirade on Twitter trying to extol the virtues of the piece of shits who work at his company.

Some headlines/statements on this matter:

So how do advertisers know what they’re getting for their money? This is fundamental to the financial health of Twitter.

MUSK ASKS RHETORICALLY, IS TWITTER POTENTIALLY 80%-90% BOTS

MUSK SAYS HIS LOWEST ESTIMATE OF TWITTER BOTS WOULD BE 20%

MUSK SAYS `NO WAY’ TO KNOW NUMBER OF BOTS ON TWITTER

MUSK STILL AWAITS `SOME SORT OF LOGICAL EXPLANATION’ FOR BOTS

Shares of Twitter have careened lower again, now below where the stock was before the Musk bid.

For the past several weeks markets got so spooked over the recession to come and be enjoyed, it forget all about the supply disruptions that will keep the cost of goods way up.

Thankfully today this is being revoked and we are once again safe inside commodity plays.

Conversely, SHOP, NET and anything remotely related to the consumer are having their brains blown out. I’m down 13bps for the session, mostly due to my bank short going awry alongside longs In biotech and solar. You’d think risk would be distributed evenly, but not today. For today is a day we celebrate the $30 bag of coffee and $10 tomato.

Hard times hasten behind us and I’m afraid we’ll run out of printing presses before it catches up.

Meanwhile, Turkey said they’d veto both Swedecucks and Finland from joining NATO, which makes sense. Why should Turkey be forced into an alliance with such pussies? Look at what the Swede’s willingly do to their nation. Siding with Finland over Russia gets you what exactly? Good will from the great satan?

Fuck off.

Markets have picked up in the past few minutes, but breadth is still weak and we have pronounced weakness in various consumer sectors while strength is most abundant in commodities and anything related to agriculture. Due to soaring commodity prices, natty, coffee and wheat are all up 5%, investors have a hankering for beaten down commodity stocks.

My quant, which is almost all oil, is flying up 3.75%. My trading is having a more muted reception, up just 0.26%.

I’m only 50% invested at the moment with a position in FAZ as a hedge. I’m trading defensively because, well, I feel like it god damn it.

Markets appear to want higher now, stagflation or not. I chased all I felt like chasing this morning, but will chase no more.

The theme is: deglobalization.

Due to the war and scarcity, nations more and more will begin to prioritize their supplies, with exception to the United States who could give a fuck about its own people. The rueful dollar is all that matters here and if it means more people grow poor because of it, so be it.

Before this export ban, India was expected to export 10 million tonnes of wheat. This quite literally was the world’s only hope at resolving the wheat shortages to come, due to drought and war, as India is the #2 producer of wheat world wide.

Wheat is up more than 5% for the day. I’d fix my attention on ag stocks, particularly any company who helps increase the yield on crops, such as any potash play.

Worst come to worst, we can always eat the bugs.